Free Lone Star Picks & Predictions

Sun River breaks from the rail under Claudio Ponce Aguilar for trainer Ricardo Aguirre, posting a solid 75.3 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. The 3/1 morning line is fair value for a horse projecting this well in a race where the win pick figures to face some early pressure. As a place play, Sun River offers a reasonable cushion at a workable price.

Perry Miracle sits just beneath Sun River with a 73.98 rating and draws post 4 with J.R. Ramirez, Jr. aboard for trainer Zachary Quezada. The middle post is a solid draw for the 870-yard distance, avoiding any potential early traffic issues. At 7/2 on the morning line, Perry Miracle rounds out the top three in our model and makes sense as an exotic anchor.

Mr Perry Cuervo is a legitimate value target at 12/1 on the morning line. His TrackWiz rating of 70.16 ranks third in the field, and his 20% career win rate is the best among the top-rated horses — that's real production. Trainer Manuel Gonzalez IV teams up with Noe Villatoro, and at those odds, this horse pays nicely in exacta and trifecta plays if he fires.

Snazzee carries a 67.08 rating and the 3/1 morning line, checking in with a 10% career win percentage that's respectable in claiming company. Jockey Gilberto Linares takes the call for trainer Juan Manuel Baeza, a pairing that should have this one ready to run. In a short field at 300 yards, Snazzee's positional speed figures to keep her competitive for a share.

Dm Special Cat rates second in the field at 79.94 with a 15% career win rate, and Claudio Ponce Aguilar takes over in the irons for trainer Kie Mushinski. The 2/1 morning line makes this a fair price for a horse that figures to track the favorite through the run. A 10-point rating gap between Dm Special Cat and the third-best horse in the field suggests this could be a two-horse race at the top.

Red Jet is the one to watch at 15/1 on the morning line — that's a juicy overlay for a stakes-quality entrant. Trainer Justin W. Joiner also conditions the favorite Wynnchester, meaning this barn clearly knows how to prepare horses for 870-yard stakes company. A 62.97 rating won't beat the top pair clean, but in trifecta coverage, Red Jet at big odds is too cheap to ignore.