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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 23, 2026

October 23, 20269 racesAll Lone Star picks

We're heading to Lone Star Park on a gorgeous Friday in North Texas — partly cloudy skies and 81°F means the dirt is likely playing fast and fair, which is exactly what you want for a nine-race quarter horse sprint card like this one. No weather excuses today; it's all about raw speed and execution.

The card is loaded with short-distance sprints ranging from 250 yards all the way out to 400 yards, with a mix of Maiden Claiming, Claiming, and Allowance conditions that create some genuinely interesting class dynamics. There's a little something for every type of handicapper today — straightforward speed plays, class-drop angles, and at least one legitimate longshot worth a hard look.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all nine races, with the top three races unlocked for every reader and six premium breakdowns available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

A two-horse title fight shapes up in this 350-yard optional claimer, with Big Bang Rocket and The Lion Kingg drawing most of the market — but the rest of the field isn't without intrigue.

win1Big Bang RocketML 7/5

Big Bang Rocket comes in with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.42, and that gap over the second-ranked horse is significant in a short-format race where there's little margin for error. Francisco Calderon gets the call for trainer Justin W. Joiner, a solid partnership to watch in sprint conditions. The 21% career win rate is respectable in quarter horse company, and at 7/5 on the morning line, the market agrees this is the one to beat. In a 350-yard dash, early positioning is everything — and this horse profiles as the type to get out of the gate clean.

place6The Lion KinggML 6/5

The Lion Kingg is the most fascinating horse in the race — an 80% career win rate is genuinely eye-popping, even in a limited sample, and the 6/5 morning line reflects that. Trainer Kash Reed sends out a horse that knows how to hit the board, and jockey Bryan Candanosa is a capable pilot in these short sprints. The slightly lower TrackWiz rating of 69.46 compared to Big Bang Rocket is the reason we slot this one for place rather than the top spot, but fading it entirely would be a mistake.

show5DefoursML 5/1

Defours at 5/1 is the play for value in the exotic slots. The 24% career win rate actually leads the field — a useful angle in claiming company where consistency matters. Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh has this horse prepped, and Ali Rivera gives the connections a competent rider. At morning line odds of 5/1, there's genuine overlay potential if the two favorites get tangled up.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

Wide-open maiden claimer over 400 yards with a maiden field where no horse has ever broken their duck — the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story, but upsets are always on the table when everyone's still looking for their first win.

win4Threat Levl MidnightML 8/5

Threat Levl Midnight earns the top spot here with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 — and in a maiden event over 400 yards, that kind of edge is hard to dismiss. Trainer Alfred A. Aparicio puts Angel A. Fierro in the irons, and at 8/5 on the morning line, the market has done its homework. The 400-yard trip is a fair test that rewards horses who can sustain a push through the wire, and this horse's profile suggests it has the athleticism to do exactly that.

place2Jess Eye CowboyML 5/1

Jess Eye Cowboy is the second-best-rated horse in the field at 78.0 — a meaningful gap over the third-ranked contender. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is one of the busiest and most effective jockeys on this card, and trainer Jerry W. Sewell II keeps a tidy operation. At 5/1 on the morning line, this one offers genuine value in exacta and place wagering.

show5Mission Sin DulceML 5/2

Mission Sin Dulce sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 51.38, which is a step back from the top two but well clear of the rest of the maiden field. Raul Ramirez, Jr. is a capable rider for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III, who is active throughout this card. At 5/2 odds, the price is a bit short for a show bet, but in exotics this horse rounds out trifecta coverage nicely.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden claimer at 330 yards with a legitimate top pick standing well above the field — but several mid-range horses could scramble the exacta if the favorite doesn't get a clean break.

win6Mighty Bug ReasonML 5/2

Mighty Bug Reason draws the win call with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — the clear top mark in a nine-horse maiden field. Trainer Jose Uriegas, Jr. sends this horse out with Eliazar T. Vera up, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the value is solid for a race with this much separation between the top horse and the pack. The 330-yard trip is one of the shortest distances on the card, which means gate speed and break quickness are paramount — this horse's profile suggests it belongs at the front.

place5Rc Chill TimeML 3/1

Rc Chill Time rates second in the field at 74.59 and goes at a very fair 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Steven Salazar, who shows up multiple times on this card, has Roman Armando Huerta aboard — a combination worth noting. In a maiden race at a short distance, the second-best horse often finds its way to the board, and this one profiles as a solid place option.

show7Mighty Bug LluviaML 9/2

Mighty Bug Lluvia rounds out the TrackWiz top three at 61.07 and presents an interesting exotic angle at 9/2. Trainer Carlos B. Sanchez puts Luis Angel Maldonado in the saddle, and with two horses from the same 'Mighty Bug' family in this race, it'll be worth watching how they break relative to each other. At nearly 5-1, this is a reasonable show and trifecta inclusion.

The first three races on today's card are on the house, and they present a solid foundation for building your early sequences. Big Bang Rocket (R1, 7/5 ML) carries our highest TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 89.42 — that's the number that stands out most this afternoon. Over in Race 2, Threat Levl Midnight (8/5 ML, 89.12 rating) profiles as another strong play in a wide-open Maiden Claiming sprint at 400 yards, while Race 3 gives us Mighty Bug Reason at a juicier 5/2 morning line in the shortest Maiden Claiming distance of the early card at 330 yards.

One thing to watch across the free races: with the track playing quick on a warm, dry afternoon, early speed is king in these ultra-short sprints. Horses that can get out of the gate clean and establish position in the first few strides have a built-in structural advantage. All three of our free picks profile well in that regard — check the individual race breakdowns for the full details on each.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse maiden field at the ultra-short 250-yard trip, where gate breaks can decide everything — the top of the TrackWiz ratings is tightly bunched and this one could get chaotic fast.

win1Texan MoonML 8/5

Texan Moon tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.82 and carries the morning line favoritism at 8/5 — a combination that's hard to argue against in a wide-open maiden field. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III, who appears frequently on today's card, puts Raul Padilla Hernandez, Jr. aboard. At 250 yards, there's almost no room for error — this is essentially a reaction-time contest — and Texan Moon's rating suggests it has the edge in raw ability to handle the chaos of a 12-horse gate.

place4Political MonkeyML 5/1

Political Monkey is right on Texan Moon's heels with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17, and the 5/1 morning line makes this one of the best potential overlays on the race. Trainer Shae L. Cox has J.R. Ramirez, Jr. up — a jockey who appears comfortable in these short-format sprints given multiple card appearances. If the favorite gets a rough break, Political Monkey has the talent to steal the win, making this a strong place play.

show7Zenith ZtormiML 9/2

Zenith Ztormi checks in third with a 78.87 rating at 9/2 on the morning line — a fair price for a horse with legitimate top-three ability. Trainer Juan Johnny M. Hernandez gives the mount to Claudio Ponce Aguilar, a jockey active throughout this Lone Star card. In a 12-horse sprint at 250 yards, show coverage on this one is sensible — it's well-rated, reasonably priced, and should break cleanly enough to stay in contention.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

A claiming race at 400 yards where the TrackWiz analysis is throwing a curveball — our top-rated pick is sitting at 12/1 on the morning line, creating a potential value situation that serious players will want to examine closely.

win7Astronomical LoveML 12/1

Astronomical Love is the TrackWiz value play of the card — rated 73.96 but sitting at 12/1 on the morning line, which represents a significant disconnect between our model and public perception. Trainer Joe Chapa has this horse positioned for an upset, and Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is one of the sharpest riders on this card with multiple mounts today. The 5% career win rate is admittedly thin, but in claiming company at this distance, a top-rated horse at this price deserves serious attention in your exotics.

place2Brujo SpiritML 5/2

Brujo Spirit rates second in the field at 72.68 and goes at a reasonable 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Anthony Gordon Jones puts Erik N. Esqueda in the irons, and with a 12% career win rate, this horse has shown it can compete. The close rating gap between Brujo Spirit and Astronomical Love suggests a competitive dynamic between these two, and framing Brujo Spirit as the place anchor in your exotics makes sense.

show1Double Down LucasML 2/1

Double Down Lucas is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and carries a 25% career win rate — the best win percentage in the field and a figure that demands respect. Trainer Shae L. Cox and jockey J.R. Ramirez, Jr. are a productive pairing on today's card. The TrackWiz model puts this horse third at 69.72, but don't let that discourage you from using it underneath — that career win rate in claiming company is a legitimate flag.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden claimer at 400 yards with one horse standing well clear of a crowded, evenly-matched middle tier — Foxy Cartel looks like the class of this field by a comfortable margin.

win11Foxy CartelML 9/5

Foxy Cartel leads this large maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 and goes at 9/5 on the morning line — a fair price for the standout horse in a 12-runner maiden race. Trainer Javier Ruiz Ortiz sends Alfredo Contreras to the gate, and the combination looks tidy on paper. In maiden company over 400 yards, a horse with this kind of rating separation tends to be difficult to beat, especially when the rest of the field is bunched closely between 41 and 58.

place2Miss RybelleML 2/1

Miss Rybelle is listed at 2/1 on the morning line — tighter than we'd like for a place play — but the 58.33 TrackWiz rating puts her clearly ahead of most of this field. Trainer Justin W. Joiner gets Francisco Calderon aboard, a jockey who opened the card with the top win pick in Race 1. The odds suggest the public agrees this is a two-horse race with Foxy Cartel, and miss Rybelle should be in virtually every exacta combination.

show10Annee Chilitos GlML 5/2

Annee Chilitos Gl comes in with a 57.50 TrackWiz rating and a 5/2 morning line from trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III — one of the most active trainers on this card. Noe Villatoro is up, and he's also been busy at Lone Star today, suggesting good stable confidence. The tight rating between Annee Chilitos Gl and Miss Rybelle means the second and third spots in this race could flip, so using both in trifectas is a sensible approach.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Twelve maidens go postward at the ultra-short 250-yard trip, and while the top of the TrackWiz board is clear, the bunched middle tier makes exacta and trifecta construction genuinely tricky.

win8Doncha KnowML 3/1

Doncha Know earns the win call with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and a morning line of 3/1 — a reasonable price for the top horse in a maiden sprint. Trainer Martin Rodriguez puts Alejandro Medina in the irons, and at 250 yards, a clean gate break from this horse should put it in an ideal position to wire the field. The 87.08 rating stands meaningfully above the second-ranked horse, which is the kind of separation that makes a confident top pick.

place7Ajs FlashML 5/2

Ajs Flash rates second in this 12-horse field at 72.25 and carries 5/2 morning line odds — a horse the public clearly respects alongside the TrackWiz model. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh puts Ali Rivera up, and that jockey has been active and effective across this card. In a maiden sprint at 250 yards, the second-best horse usually earns a spot on the board, and the price makes this a sound place play.

show4Cr B Cus Im a AngelML 7/2

Cr B Cus Im a Angel slots in third in the TrackWiz ratings at 68.99 and goes at 7/2 on the morning line — slight overlay territory for a horse rated this solidly. Trainer Rolando Almanza gives the mount to Noe Villatoro, who is one of the busiest jockeys on today's card and clearly has the confidence of multiple connections. This horse is a sensible show bet and deserves a slot in trifecta tickets, especially in a 12-horse field where chaos is always possible.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 300 yards that features some of the tightest TrackWiz ratings of the day — with three horses bunched between 76 and 79, this race is a genuine pick-'em at the top and the exacta could pay nicely.

win1Chile PiquinML 5/2

Chile Piquin tops the allowance field with a TrackWiz rating of 79.09 and draws the morning line at 5/2. Trainer Zackery N. Rios puts Nestor Duran in the saddle, and while the 6% career win rate is modest, allowance horses at this level are judged on their best efforts rather than raw percentages. The rating edge over a competitive field is slim, but slim advantages in 300-yard sprints have a way of showing up at the wire.

place6Midnight DML 10/1

Midnight D is the standout value angle in this race — rated 76.88 by TrackWiz while sitting at 10/1 on the morning line, that's a pricing gap that's hard to ignore. Trainer Bradley C. Bolen puts Carlos Antonio Guillen Chacon up, a jockey who also has mounts in Race 1 and Race 7 today. A 12% career win rate in allowance company is respectable, and at double-digit odds, this horse belongs in every exotic ticket you're building for Race 8.

show8Sm Temp Me BoyML 5/1

Sm Temp Me Boy brings the best career win rate in the field at 33% — a figure that genuinely stands out in allowance company. Trainer Fidel Perez gives the call to Miguel Ortega, and at 5/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse this consistent. The TrackWiz rating of 76.82 is virtually identical to Midnight D, meaning these two could easily swap positions — use both in your exotics.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden field at 300 yards closes out the Lone Star card, and the TrackWiz model is flagging a significant upset scenario — the top-rated horse is going off at 5/1, while the morning line favorite is rated considerably lower.

win12Mo JettaML 5/1

Mo Jetta is the TrackWiz top pick at 84.17 — but the morning line puts this horse at 5/1, which is a significant disconnect from what our model is seeing. Trainer M. Brent Kennedy gives the call to Beny Bautista Cortes, a combination without a large footprint on this card, which may explain why the public hasn't dialed in on this horse. In a 12-horse maiden sprint at 300 yards, this kind of rating advantage at generous odds is exactly the spot where the TrackWiz model has historically identified value. This is the best bet of the race by our analysis.

place3OpenthedamgateML 7/5

Openthedamgate is the 7/5 morning line favorite — the shortest-priced horse in this field — yet TrackWiz rates this one at 68.42, well behind Mo Jetta. Trainer Bradley C. Bolen and jockey Carlos Antonio Guillen Chacon are a busy pairing on this card, and the public clearly trusts them. The horse may well hit the board, but at 7/5 it's hard to make a strong place case when the model sees another horse as clearly superior — use it for coverage, not as the cornerstone.

show7Mystic JessiML 6/1

Mystic Jessi rounds out the picks with a 56.21 TrackWiz rating and a 6/1 morning line that offers legitimate overlay potential for a show and exotic play. Trainer Eric Joel Hernandez Luna puts Edwin Alejandro Ortega aboard, and this horse sits in a comfortable tier above most of the 12-horse field. In a maiden race where the top two are at 5/1 and 7/5, a well-rated horse at 6/1 rounding out the trifecta is a position worth taking.

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Bottom line for today at Lone Star: Big Bang Rocket is the standout number on the card and our top free play, Mighty Bug Reason offers some underdog value in Race 3, and Astronomical Love at 12/1 in Race 5 is the kind of longshot angle that can make your whole afternoon. The full-card analysis — including pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and all six premium races — is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz premium. Good luck, and let's have a big Friday at Lone Star.

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