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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 22, 2026

October 22, 20268 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a beautiful Thursday afternoon at Lone Star Park — clear skies, 82 degrees, and fast dirt underfoot. Conditions like these are about as good as it gets for quarter-horse racing, and today's 8-race card looks ready to deliver. With distances ranging from a lightning-quick 250 yards all the way out to 400 yards, speed and gate punch are going to be at a premium from Race 1 right through the finale.

The card runs the full spectrum — a pair of Maidens kick things off before we move through Claiming, Allowance, and a Starter Optional Claiming race that shapes up as one of the most competitive spots on the card. There's plenty for casual fans and serious horseplayers alike, and TrackWiz analysis has combed through every angle to get you ready.

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Race 1

8:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer at 400 yards where TrackWiz ratings paint a clear top two, but the morning line tells a different story — the top-rated horse is a 4/1 shot while the second-best is the 8/5 favorite.

win4The King KarverML 4/1

The King Karver (4) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62, a meaningful separation from the rest of this maiden group. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. gets the call from trainer John Boegner Jr., and that jockey-trainer combination in a race where you have a legitimate class edge is exactly the kind of angle you want on your side. At 4/1 on the morning line, he offers real value over the 8/5 chalk — if he runs to his number, this field isn't close.

place2A Flash of PaintML 8/5

A Flash of Paint (2) is the morning line favorite at 8/5 for a reason — her 75.12 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field and trainer Jacquelin Garcia clearly has her pointed at this spot. She's the horse to beat if The King Karver has any issues at the gate, and in a maiden sprint over 400 yards, gate presence is everything.

show6Free FlightML 15/1

Free Flight (6) is a genuine longshot at 15/1 but checks in with a 48.58 TrackWiz rating that actually lands in the middle of this field — above several horses at shorter odds. If the top two have a stumble or a bad break, trainer Ricardo Aguirre's runner is live for a piece of the exotics at a price worth sprinkling in your trifecta.

Race 2

8:31 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

This 300-yard claimer has a legitimately juicy overlay situation — the top-rated horse is 6/1 while the morning line favorite is only the third-best by TrackWiz numbers, setting up a potential value bomb in exotics.

win4Kas Cartel GlML 6/1

Kas Cartel Gl (4) tops this field with an 82.05 TrackWiz rating and carries a 25% career win rate — solid credentials in a competitive claimer. Luis L. Vivanco picks up the mount for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this is an outright overlay if you trust the numbers. In a 300-yard dash where every fraction of a second matters, having the class edge and an experienced rider is a combination worth backing.

place3Volcom TacML 10/1

Volcom Tac (3) is an interesting piece at 10/1 with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — that's the second-highest mark in the field, yet she's sitting at double-digit morning line odds. Trainer Brittany N. Tellez has Ali Rivera in the irons, and with a 14% career win rate, this horse knows how to finish. She's the kind of underlier that pays handsomely in exactas when the chalk stumbles.

show11Tunnel VisionnML 9/5

Tunnel Visionn (11) is the 9/5 morning line chalk, and while she only rates third-best on TrackWiz at 74.27, she's clearly got the connections believing in her. Trainer Martin Rodriguez sends out Francisco Giles, and a 16% career win rate is respectable. She'll likely be overbet, but she's solid enough to anchor your show wagers or fill out a trifecta underneath.

Race 3

8:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden claimer at 350 yards where the TrackWiz top pick is a commanding outlier — her rating of 87.81 towers over the second-best at 69.13, suggesting a potential wire-to-wire favorite despite a manageable 5/2 morning line.

win4Rg Jessa EaglelettaML 5/2

Rg Jessa Eagleletta (4) is a standout in this maiden field, posting an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that leads all starters by nearly 19 points — that's a significant gap in a short sprint where class separation shows up fast. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. gets the call, a rider who already has a top pick on the card tonight, showing he's one of the hotter sticks at Lone Star right now. At 5/2, she's not a steal, but the rating edge is real enough to make her the anchor of your vertical tickets.

place7Rr Dash Master JetML 3/1

Rr Dash Master Jet (7) rates second in the field at 69.13 and is the 3/1 morning line second choice — a fair reflection of his ability behind the top pick. Trainer Neri Reyna sends him out with Jose R. Herbert, and the 350-yard distance suits horses who can find early rhythm without needing a long stretch run. He's the logical place ticket companion if you're spreading wide on top.

show11Red Texas HawkML 2/1

Red Texas Hawk (11) is the 2/1 second choice on the morning line, which actually makes him an interesting show proposition — he's overpriced in the morning line relative to his 56.79 TrackWiz rating that slots him third. Luis L. Vivanco, who also has Koppers Cliff in this race, is a busy rider tonight, and Red Texas Hawk's public support could make him a short-priced show ticket. Useful as a trifecta saver.

Three races are unlocked for every reader today, and they give you a solid cross-section of the card. The King Karver opens the day in the maiden claiming sprint at 400 yards — a rare longer test for maidens on this circuit — carrying an 85.62 TrackWiz rating off a morning line of 4/1 that looks workable. In Race 2, Kas Cartel Gl draws our attention at 6/1 in a 300-yard claimer, a price that could offer real value if our pace read on this field holds up. Then Race 3 gives us our highest-rated free pick of the trio: Rg Jessa Eagleletta at 5/2 morning line with an 87.81 rating in the 350-yard maiden claiming — she checks the most boxes of anyone in the early going.

One thread connecting all three free picks: on a clear, fast day at Lone Star, early speed is king. Any horse that can get out of the gate clean and establish position in the first half of these ultra-short sprints is working with a significant structural edge. Keep that bias in mind as you watch how the early races play out before you commit to later wagers.

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Race 4

9:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Race 4 is a 12-horse claiming sprint at 250 yards where three horses rate within seven points of each other in the 80s — this one could come down to gate speed and who fires cleanly on the night.

win8Heza Big LewML 5/2

Heza Big Lew (8) tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and has Ali Rivera in the saddle for trainer Samantha A. Pena — a tidy combination with the best number in the race. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's not going to pay big, but his 12% career win rate is modest and the TrackWiz edge over his rivals is the real story here. In a 250-yard sprint, the horse with the best pure ability rating often wins before anyone can make a move.

place5Interesting WalkML 9/2

Interesting Walk (5) rates 80.40 on TrackWiz — second best in the field — and comes in at 9/2 morning line odds with Jesus Orta Martinez up for trainer Chris Gandarilla. What's intriguing here is that a 7% career win rate suggests this horse has been competitive without always getting to the winner's circle, which is exactly the profile of a reliable place horse. He's worth keying underneath in exactas.

show6Cedar PostML 5/1

Cedar Post (6) has the third-best TrackWiz rating at 80.12 and a career win rate of 25% — the highest among the three top picks in this race and a real indicator that this horse knows how to win. Trainer Janessa Lee Muniz sends out Olvin Josue Martinez at 5/1 morning line, and with a win percentage that strong, Cedar Post is more than just a show ticket filler — he's a legitimate threat to wire all three in the right scenario.

Race 5

9:49 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

The allowance conditions in Race 5 shake up the field nicely — the morning line favorite at 7/5 is only third-best by TrackWiz ratings, and the real top pick at 3/1 offers genuine overlay value in a nine-horse field.

win4Mighty KvnML 3/1

Mighty Kvn (4) leads the field with an 86.60 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — two data points that don't lie in an allowance sprint at 350 yards. Roman Cruz gets the mount for trainer Jose Angel Burciaga, and the 3/1 morning line represents solid value when you consider this horse rates nearly 15 points clear of the second-best. He's the play to build your tickets around tonight.

place7Feisti CowboyML 8/1

Feisti Cowboy (7) rates 79.79 on TrackWiz with a 20% career win rate, and the 8/1 morning line makes him one of the most attractive value plays on the card in this spot. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. — who has been busy and effective across tonight's card — takes the call for trainer Brittany N. Tellez. If Mighty Kvn gets the lead, Feisti Cowboy has the profile to be right there for second at a big price.

show6Cowgirls 123ML 7/5

Cowgirls 123 (6) is the 7/5 morning line chalk and will likely be hammered by the public, but her 72.18 TrackWiz rating only slots her third in this field. Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh's runner has Ali Rivera aboard, and a 14% career win rate is modest — that's the case against her being a straight win play. As a show horse, though, her public support alone makes her a near-lock to hit the board for exotic purposes.

Race 6

10:15 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Race 6 is a Starter Optional Claimer at 250 yards where the morning line favorite is also the top TrackWiz pick — but the second-best horse in the field at 3/1 gives exotics bettors a real reason to use two horses on top.

win1This Eagles QuirkyML 7/5

This Eagles Quirky (1) owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.42 and a 26% career win rate — the combination of best rating and above-average win percentage is about as clean a top selection as you'll find on this card. Alejandro Landeros Zuniga rides for trainer Isidro Mancillas-Lopez, and the 7/5 morning line reflects exactly how the public sees this horse. Over 250 yards, a horse this sharp coming out of the gate usually does the rest on talent alone.

place9Runaway Prize DashML 3/1

Runaway Prize Dash (9) rates 77.39 on TrackWiz — a solid 12 points behind the top pick but well clear of the rest of the field — and Raul Padilla Hernandez Jr. takes the mount for trainer Manuel Gonzalez IV at 3/1. His 18% career win rate is respectable in this company, and he looks like the clear logical alternative if the favorite has any trouble breaking. Build your exactas around these two.

show7Bless Em DirtyML 4/1

Bless Em Dirty (7) rates 61.05 on TrackWiz with a 14% career win rate, and at 4/1 morning line, he slots in as the third choice in a race where the top two have a clear edge. Oliver E. Martinez rides for trainer Manuel Flores — a combination that's been active across tonight's card — and in a short sprint, you only need a clean trip to land in the money. He's the right show ticket and a useful third in trifecta combinations.

Race 7

10:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

Race 7's allowance field features a fascinating odds inversion — the TrackWiz top pick at 4/1 is sitting behind an 8/5 morning line favorite who rates more than 10 points lower, making this an overlay situation worth attacking.

win8Jvm Cardi BML 4/1

Jvm Cardi B (8) leads all starters with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and carries a 22% career win rate, which matches the career win rate of the morning line favorite but at better than double the odds. Rosendo E. Pina Garcia gets the mount for trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia, who also has Mad Indian in the race — a trainer who clearly knows this horse well enough to enter both. At 4/1, Jvm Cardi B is the kind of overlay that makes the TrackWiz model worth following.

place1Ag Cyber KingML 8/5

Ag Cyber King (1) is the 8/5 morning line favorite and carries a 22% career win rate — matching the win pick — but his 73.70 TrackWiz rating slots him second in the field. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. handles the mount for trainer Jose Angel Burciaga, who also saddles Jac Knife in this race. If you believe the morning line and want to hedge, Ag Cyber King as a place ticket makes sense, but the value is clearly elsewhere.

show7XpressivML 6/1

Xpressiv (7) rates 72.23 on TrackWiz — barely a point behind the morning line favorite — and yet sits at 6/1 with Mario Delgado up for trainer Hernesto Ramirez. A 16% career win rate in allowance company is workable, and his rating suggests he's competitive with the top two in this field. At 6/1, he's the kind of horse that pays a real price in show or trifecta spots when he runs to his number.

Race 8

11:07 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

The finale is a 12-horse maiden sprint at 300 yards where the TrackWiz top pick is not the morning line favorite — Momentym at 4/1 leads on ratings while the 4/5 chalk Ojo Caliente is second, setting up a potentially rewarding exacta if you get the order right.

win10MomentymML 4/1

Momentym (10) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and is sent out at 4/1 on the morning line — that's overlay territory when you consider his rating leads all 12 starters. Nestor Duran rides for trainer Richard D. Sedillo, and in a maiden race where the field has no career wins to sort through, raw talent ratings carry the most weight. Getting 4/1 on the top-rated horse in any maiden race is a spot TrackWiz analysis is built to identify.

place3Ojo CalienteML 4/5

Ojo Caliente (3) is the 4/5 morning line chalk, and her 78.54 TrackWiz rating slots her second in the field — a fair reflection of her standing, though the odds are likely too short for win play. Trainer J. Ryan Basham sends out Alejandro Landeros Zuniga, who has been active throughout the card tonight. She's a virtual lock to hit the board, making her a solid place ticket even if she can't quite run down Momentym.

show11Cold Hearted CowgirlML 3/1

Cold Hearted Cowgirl (11) rates 75.08 on TrackWiz — third-best in the field — and trainer Brian Stroud turns to Jose R. Herbert, a jockey who knows this track well from riding earlier on the card. At 3/1 morning line, she's a legitimate third choice with a rating that warrants inclusion in any trifecta. In a maiden race with a dozen runners, having your third horse rate this close to the top two is exactly the kind of depth that makes trifectas payable.

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Lone Star is dealing a fast, fair track today and an 8-race card with genuine angles at every level. Start with Rg Jessa Eagleletta as the strongest free play on the board, keep an eye on the value in Kas Cartel Gl at 6/1 in Race 2, and know that the premium side of this card — headlined by This Eagles Quirky — is where the most compelling spots live. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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