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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 17, 2026

October 17, 202612 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a crisp, clear afternoon at Lone Star Park — 64°F with no weather excuses in sight. Conditions are about as good as it gets for quarter horse racing in North Texas, and the track should be running fast and honest all day long.

We've got a full 12-race card on tap, stretching from a quick 250-yard maiden sprint in Race 2 all the way out to an 870-yard allowance to kick off the afternoon in Race 1. That kind of distance variety gives bettors plenty of angles to work, and the card mixes maiden claimers, straight claimers, and allowance company with a Stakes race thrown in at Race 6 to keep things spicy.

The marquee number from our TrackWiz ratings belongs to Dakota Stone in Race 10 — an 89.42 that stands alone at the top of the card. But there's plenty of action to dig into before we get there, including a longshot angle in Race 5 worth keeping an eye on.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this 870-yard allowance opener, but a pair of live contenders with strong career win percentages could make the exotics interesting.

win3Louisiana MysteryML 5/2

Louisiana Mystery carries a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — more than 20 points clear of the next-best horse in the field — and that kind of separation in our model doesn't happen by accident. Trained by Marc E. Jungers, who also saddles stablemate Master Reigns, this runner figures to benefit from barn familiarity with the setup. Jockey Luis L. Vivanco gets the call, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the public already respects this one. With a 17% career win rate, Louisiana Mystery is the most consistent performer in the field by our metrics.

place6Thrill and FuryML 3/1

Thrill and Fury brings a 20% career win rate — tied for best in the race — and a respectable 64.85 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Brittany N. Tellez keeps it in the family with jockey Froylan Tellez Ramirez aboard, and tight connections like that often translate to sharp barn communication and good race-day timing. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse that should be on your ticket.

show5Dm Special CatML 8/1

Dm Special Cat sits at 8/1 on the morning line but posts a 62.44 TrackWiz rating — solid enough to land a piece of this at a price. Trainer Kie Mushinski and jockey Claudio Ponce Aguilar team up here, and with a 15% career win rate, this runner is no stranger to hitting the board. Worth including in exacta and trifecta coverage as the third wheel.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Two horses are virtually tied for top billing in this 250-yard maiden claiming sprint, setting up a potential photo at the wire with a third at a price lurking behind them.

win3SheruningoutmoonliteML 5/2

Sheruningoutmoonlite draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and gets Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. in the irons — one of the busier riders on the Lone Star circuit. Trainer Antwain Ernest Franklin has this one pointing toward the 250-yard distance, and the 5/2 morning line reflects genuine market respect. In a field where no horse has a career win on record yet, our model's separation between this runner and the rest of the field is the clearest signal we have.

place5Mighty Eye AmML 2/1

Mighty Eye Am is statistically a razor-thin second at 87.06 — essentially a dead heat with the top pick in our model. Trainer Juan Carlos Ortega sends this one out at 2/1, making it the morning-line favorite, and jockey Adrian Guel is a capable hand in these short sprints. The gap between these two and the rest of the field is significant, and backing both in exacta combinations makes a lot of sense here.

show6Cholula ProspectML 9/2

Cholula Prospect checks in at 58.45 on our rating scale — a meaningful step below the top two, but well clear of most of the field at 9/2. Trainer Janessa Lee Muniz has a runner in good trim, and Olvin Josue Martinez gets the mount in this debut-style heat. Use this one to round out trifecta tickets and capture some value if the top two battle each other to a standstill.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 12-horse maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards with three horses clustered tightly in the mid-80s on our ratings — this could be anybody's race at the wire.

win12Texan MoonML 5/2

Texan Moon draws the top TrackWiz rating in this crowded field at 85.94 and lands jockey Luis L. Vivanco, who also has the mount on El Patron Cl — meaning he'll be on the top-rated horse here after any conflicts are sorted. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III runs a two-horse entry with program numbers 12 and 9, giving the barn multiple shots at the winner's circle. The 5/2 morning line is fair for a race this competitive, and that rating edge over the field gives Texan Moon a legitimate claim to the top spot.

place2JeezusML 5/1

Jeezus — program number 2 — is right on Texan Moon's heels at an 84.17 TrackWiz rating, and trainer Arnold Lewis has this one positioned at 5/1 on the morning line, which is generous given the proximity in our model. J.R. Ramirez, Jr. is an experienced hand in these quarter-horse sprints, and with 250 yards of raw speed on the line, a horse with this rating deserves serious place consideration.

show6Toxic SeisML 3/1

Toxic Seis rounds out a tight top three with an 83.33 TrackWiz rating and draws Raul Padilla Hernandez, Jr. for trainer Zachary Quezada. At 3/1 on the morning line, this horse is actually the third choice in the wagering but sits third in our model — so the public and the data are aligned. Include Toxic Seis in trifecta coverage; in a race this compressed at the top, mixing and matching all three in exotics is the smart play.

The first three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they give you a nice cross-section of what today's card looks like. Louisiana Mystery opens the day in Race 1 — a long-format 870-yard allowance that rewards horses who can sustain speed, not just explode out of the gates. At 5/2 on the morning line with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating, this is the kind of solid top pick you want to anchor your early Pick 3 with.

Races 2 and 3 are short, sharp 250-yard sprints for maiden claimers — the format where pure gate speed and reaction time rule everything. Sheruningoutmoonlite (Race 2, 87.81 rating) and Texan Moon (Race 3, 85.94 rating) both carry 5/2 morning lines, meaning neither is a runaway favorite — and in maiden sprints this short, that's exactly where you can find some value if the board drifts.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

This 250-yard maiden claiming sprint goes behind the paywall for good reason — a dominant top-rated runner squares off against a deep field with real secondary contenders to fill out exotic tickets.

win11SmkingamericapriseML 3/1

Smkingamericaprise tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and gets Ruben Delarosa, Jr. up for trainer Janessa Lee Muniz — the same barn that saddles Vanish Thru the Fire in Race 8, showing active involvement across tonight's card. The 3/1 morning line is a fair price for a horse sitting nearly 22 points clear of the third-rated runner in the field. In a wide-open maiden field at the short 250-yard trip, that kind of rating advantage is hard to dismiss.

place12Marshall HoganML 7/2

Marshall Hogan checks in at 65.08 on our model — a distant but real second tier — and trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III is one of the more prominent names on the Lone Star grounds tonight. Noe Villatoro gets the mount at 7/2 on the morning line, and while there's a gap between this horse and the top pick, Marshall Hogan's profile holds up well enough to secure a place finish in this company.

show1HypnotikML 4/1

Hypnotik rates third in the field at 63.9 and is just a tick behind Marshall Hogan in our model, which makes sense given the 4/1 morning line. Trainer Joseph D. Manucy sends this one out with J.R. Ramirez, Jr. — a reliable combination in these sprint conditions. With the top two horses rated significantly higher than the rest of the field, Hypnotik looks like the most logical show horse to anchor a trifecta underneath.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

The morning-line favorite barely cracks the top three in our ratings in this 300-yard claiming sprint — a genuine upset alert with a significant value play lurking at double-digit odds.

win9Spirit BokML 8/1

Spirit Bok is our top selection despite an 8/1 morning line, carrying a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that leads this field by more than 13 points over the second-best horse. Trainer Brian Stroud sends this one out with J.R. Ramirez, Jr. aboard, and the disconnect between our model and the public odds is exactly the kind of overlay you want to find. A 12% career win rate is modest, but the rating dominance in this specific field makes Spirit Bok a legitimate best-bet value.

place4Volcoms Relagate YgML 4/1

Volcoms Relagate Yg rates second in the field at 66.17 and is posted at 4/1 on the morning line. Trainer Jose Uriegas, Jr. and jockey Ruben Delarosa, Jr. combine here, and with an 8% career win rate, this is a horse that competes consistently without closing the deal — a profile that often translates to place and show reliability. A good second wheel in exactas behind Spirit Bok.

show2TarzannitaML 5/2

Tarzannita carries a 60.9 rating and is the 5/2 morning-line choice — making the public's top pick our third-rated horse, which is an interesting divergence. Angel A. Fierro gets the mount for trainer Alfred A. Aparicio, and with an 11% career win rate, Tarzannita clearly knows how to compete. Use this as the show anchor in your trifectas and consider keying it underneath Spirit Bok in exactas for a potential payout.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Stakes · 350 yd · Dirt

Stakes company at 350 yards and the field is top-heavy — one horse stands well above the rest in our ratings while a pair of proven winners lurk at prices worth noting.

win2I Do Not RecallML 3/1

I Do Not Recall leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and draws Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. — one of the most in-demand riders on tonight's card — for trainer Richard G. Washington. The 3/1 morning line is reasonable for a stakes race where our model separates this horse by over eight points from the next-best runner. A 12% career win rate might not scream dominance, but in stakes competition at Lone Star, class consistency matters more than raw percentages.

place8Vp Dash for TexasML 9/2

Vp Dash for Texas rates second in this stakes field at 78.26 — a meaningful gap behind the top pick but well clear of the next tier. Trainer Noe Rios sends this one out at 9/2, and jockey Jesus Olivas is a capable hand in 350-yard dashes. With a 14% career win rate in what appears to be a competitive career profile, this horse has the credentials to hold second in a quality field.

show4La CholulaML 5/1

La Cholula is one of the more intriguing horses on tonight's card, posting a 33% career win rate — the highest win percentage among the serious contenders in this stakes field. Trainer Shae L. Cox and jockey J.R. Ramirez, Jr. are a legitimate combination, and the 5/1 morning line offers some value for a horse with that kind of historical finishing rate. At 71.63 in our ratings, La Cholula is a clear third in the model, which aligns well with a show spot.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse maiden claiming field at 330 yards where two horses hold a clear edge over the rest — but a third at morning-line value rounds out a compact top tier.

win5El TiempoML 3/1

El Tiempo tops the TrackWiz ratings for this maiden claiming sprint at 70.6 — leading the field by more than eight points. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. gets the call for trainer Jorge E. Rubio, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the public has correctly identified this as the top contender. In a large maiden field where most of the entries cluster in the 20s and 30s in our model, that separation is the clearest betting signal available.

place3Jh ApoliticalML 7/2

Jh Apolitical checks in at 62.71 on our rating scale and draws Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega for trainer Jacobo Mejia — a barn that also has Dash of Fire in Race 2, showing consistent track presence tonight. The 7/2 morning line is a workable price for the second-best horse in the field, and in a 330-yard sprint, a horse with this profile typically finds a way to at least get a piece of the purse.

show7Mo Magical TalentML 4/1

Mo Magical Talent sits third in the field at a 55.0 TrackWiz rating and draws J.R. Ramirez, Jr. for trainer John Boegner, Jr. — who also runs Gladiator in Race 1 and Bidi Bidi Bomb in Race 1, showing a busy card for this operation. At 4/1 on the morning line, the price is reasonable for what our model projects as the third wheel. Anchor this in your trifecta underneath the top two.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

Three horses are bunched near the top of our ratings in this 400-yard maiden claiming sprint, but the separation from the rest of the field is sharp — this looks like a race for the top three to sort out among themselves.

win2Cm WhataheartML 5/2

Cm Whataheart leads the field at an 87.05 TrackWiz rating and draws Alejandro Medina for trainer Aracely Mejia. The 5/2 morning line reflects genuine public confidence, and our model backs it up — this horse holds a nearly one-point edge over second-place Bull Dawgg, which in a race this tight is meaningful. With no career win data available for any horse in this maiden field, the ratings differential is the sharpest tool we have, and Cm Whataheart owns it.

place3Bull DawggML 7/2

Bull Dawgg is separated from the top pick by less than a point at 86.35 and draws Raul Padilla Hernandez, Jr. for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III — a trainer who has multiple runners on tonight's card, suggesting a stable in good form. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and the proximity of this horse to the top pick in our model means a photo finish between these two is a real possibility. Exacta combinations with Cm Whataheart and Bull Dawgg in both orders make sense.

show11Carlies Monee LyftML 2/1

Carlies Monee Lyft enters as the 2/1 morning-line favorite despite rating third in our model at 76.71 — a notable gap from the top two. That public support is worth respecting, and trainer Oscar Nunez has multiple horses on tonight's card. Jockey Olvin Josue Martinez takes the mount in what should be a competitive trip at 400 yards. Use this as your trifecta show horse, but don't be surprised if the market is right about the talent level here.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A loaded 300-yard claiming sprint featuring the deepest top-four by ratings on tonight's card — multiple horses in the 70s and 80s make this one of the most competitive races of the evening.

win4Hardly ShiningML 7/2

Hardly Shining tops our ratings at 86.35 — a significant number for a claiming race — and pairs with Alejandro Landeros Zuniga for trainer Isidro Mancillas-Lopez. The 7/2 morning line is a reasonable ask for the top-rated horse, even though an 8% career win rate suggests this horse runs well without always finding the winner's circle. Our model is leaning heavily on overall performance metrics here, and the rating edge in a competitive field like this earns the top spot.

place10Man Hes HandsomeML 5/1

Man Hes Handsome is one of the most eye-catching horses on the entire card tonight — a 40% career win rate is extraordinary in claiming company, and the 82.12 TrackWiz rating confirms this is a legitimate contender. Trainer Carlos Cruz Lopez sends this out at 5/1 on the morning line, and jockey Jesus Olivas is a capable partner. That win percentage screams class and consistency; this could just as easily be your top pick, and deserves serious consideration to win as well.

show5Deleon BayML 6/1

Deleon Bay rates third in this tough field at 77.08 and comes in at 6/1 on the morning line, offering the best value among the top three horses. Trainer Antonio S. Martinez and jockey Brayan Morales-Alonzo team up here, and with a 16% career win rate, Deleon Bay has a solid competitive history. In a race where four horses rate above 70, getting 6/1 on the third-best runner in the field is a worthwhile spot to invest in trifecta coverage.

Race 10

2:59 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A heavy favorite looms large at the top of the allowance standings tonight, but two horses rated in the 78-81 range at double and single-digit odds create an interesting value dynamic underneath.

win11Dakota StoneML 7/5

Dakota Stone comes in at a 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse on tonight's entire card — and draws Rosendo E. Pina Garcia for trainer John A. Stinebaugh. The 7/5 morning line tells you everything about public perception here; this is the standout of the night's card. A 11% career win rate may seem modest, but in allowance company at 350 yards, the sheer rating dominance makes Dakota Stone the most justified heavy favorite on the program.

place3PadrinaML 4/1

Padrina rates second in this allowance field at 81.42 and draws Francisco Giles for trainer Bradley C. Bolen — the same combination that shows up in Race 9 with Kollateral, suggesting Bolen has his stable firing. A 20% career win rate is genuinely impressive in allowance company, and the 4/1 morning line is fair value for a horse this capable. If Dakota Stone faces any trouble at the break, Padrina has the rating to capitalize immediately.

show1GiocosaML 5/2

Giocosa draws post one and rates third in the field at 78.52, getting Alejandro Landeros Zuniga for trainer J. Ryan Basham — the same connection that opens tonight's card in Race 1. The 5/2 morning line is tighter than you'd expect for a third-rated horse, which speaks to the public's respect for this runner. A 5% career win rate is on the lower end, but tonight's ratings profile suggests Giocosa consistently runs competitive figures even without getting to the winner's circle.

Race 11

3:25 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A fascinating allowance sprint at 350 yards where the top-rated horse is far from the morning-line favorite — and a horse with a perfect career record sits in the middle of the field at 5/2.

win7Mister SinatraML 7/2

Mister Sinatra leads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and draws Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. — easily the busiest jockey on tonight's card — for trainer Zackary Stinebaugh. The 7/2 morning line is actually generous for the top-rated horse in the field, suggesting there may be some overlay here. A 33% career win rate is exceptional in allowance company, and that combination of high rating plus high historical win percentage is the kind of convergence our model loves.

place3The Hottest ChilitosML 8/1

The Hottest Chilitos rates second at 78.47 with a 20% career win rate in allowance conditions — a reliable profile for a horse you want on your place tickets. Trainer Jesus M. Raygoza gets Francisco Giles in the irons, and the 8/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse this well-positioned in our ratings. If Mister Sinatra handles the favorites role cleanly, The Hottest Chilitos projects as the most likely beneficiary in the runner-up spot.

show10Ct QueenML 4/1

Ct Queen brings a 28% career win rate into this allowance field — a number that speaks to legitimate competitive quality — and trainer Brittany N. Tellez keeps it in the family with Froylan Tellez Ramirez aboard. The 4/1 morning line is fair for a horse rated 65.77, placing this one solidly in the third tier of our model. Ct Queen's strong historical win rate relative to tonight's assigned odds makes this a solid show anchor and a worthwhile addition to trifecta tickets.

Race 12

3:51 AM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

Tonight's finale is a 350-yard maiden sprint with a sharp top-two on our ratings — but the public has the second choice priced as the morning-line favorite, creating an interesting market disagreement to exploit.

win4Sharp CaliberML 4/1

Sharp Caliber tops our TrackWiz ratings for this maiden finale at 85.62 and draws Rosendo E. Pina Garcia for trainer John A. Stinebaugh — the same trainer connection that runs Dakota Stone in Race 10 tonight. The 4/1 morning line is a notable overlay when you consider this horse rates as the top pick in the field by our model. In a 12-horse maiden field where most entries rate below 50, that 85.62 stands out as a strong signal to key on the win.

place7Starlink ClusterML 2/1

Starlink Cluster is the 2/1 morning-line favorite but rates second in our model at 82.43 — a perfectly respectable number that still falls short of Sharp Caliber. Trainer Raul Ramirez sends this out with Oliver E. Martinez, and the public's preference for this runner is understandable given the close proximity in our ratings. Include Starlink Cluster in exacta combinations both ways with Sharp Caliber; the gap between them is close enough that either outcome is defensible.

show10Relentless MidniteML 6/1

Relentless Midnite rates third in this maiden field at 61.04 and draws Luis L. Vivanco for trainer Marc E. Jungers — one of the more prominent barns on tonight's card, also running Master Reigns and Louisiana Mystery in Race 1. The 6/1 morning line offers real value for a horse this well-positioned in our model relative to the rest of the field. Use Relentless Midnite to round out your trifecta tickets and capture some upside in the nightcap.

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Bottom line for today at Lone Star: Dakota Stone is our top-rated horse on the card and the name to beat in Race 10. The free plays — Louisiana Mystery, Sheruningoutmoonlite, and Texan Moon — give every reader a strong starting point. For the full 12-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and let's make today count.

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