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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 16, 2026

October 16, 20269 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Lone Star Park — 62°F, skies as clear as it gets in October, and the track is set up perfectly for a nine-race quarter horse card that leans heavy on speed. No excuses from connections today; the conditions are about as ideal as you'll find all fall meet.

The headliner storyline is the trio of 400-yard Futurity Trials running back-to-back-to-back in Races 2, 3, and 4. These are your next-generation sprinters competing to punch their ticket to the big dance, and TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on all three. Sprinkle in a pair of allowance tests, an optional claiming race, and a maiden event, and you've got a full afternoon of sharp quarter-horse action worth your attention from the first gate to the last.

Three races on today's card are open to everyone, while six premium races are locked behind the paywall for TrackWiz subscribers. Whether you're a casual fan looking for a best bet or a grinder building multi-race tickets, we've got you covered.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 11-horse claiming sprint at 400 yards where the TrackWiz ratings paint a clear top three, but the morning line tells a different story — look for value beneath the chalk.

win7One Separate SeisML 5/2

One Separate Seis draws our top rating at 87.81, a significant gap over the rest of this field, and the morning line of 5/2 actually represents reasonable value for the class of the race. Trainer Enrique Alvarado doubles up today with two runners, a confident barn move, and jockey Eleazar Rivera Hernandez gets the call on the better of the two. A 12% career win rate is modest, but the TrackWiz model puts this horse well clear of the competition — in short sprints like this 400-yarder, rating dominance tends to translate.

place9Jess Vital GlML 7/2

Jess Vital Gl slots in at a 71.35 rating with a 10% career win rate and draws a fair 7/2 on the morning line. Jockey Raul Padilla Hernandez Jr. has the mount for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III, and this horse rates second in the field by a meaningful margin — a solid place-ticket anchor in a race this deep.

show4El Terco JessML 12/1

El Terco Jess is the value play of the ticket at 12/1 on the morning line despite a 66.32 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in this field. A 9% career win rate is respectable in a claiming sprint, and H. Javier Hernandez is a capable hand in short dirt races. At those odds, including this one in your exotics costs very little and could pay handsomely.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Futurity Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

This Futurity Trial is a three-horse battle at the top, with Big Rotney's jaw-dropping 83% career win rate threatening to flip the morning line on its head against a deeper-than-usual trial field.

win7Big RotneyML 3/1

Big Rotney is the most compelling horse on today's entire card from a raw win-percentage standpoint — an 83% career win rate is extraordinary for any racehorse at any level, and the TrackWiz rating of 86.61 is the highest in this field. Trainer Matt Whitekiller is sending him out at 3/1, which implies the connections expect a big effort. Cody Rodger Smith takes the reins, and in a 400-yard dash where there's little time to make up ground, a horse that wins this often is exactly what you want on your ticket.

place8Dw Showin D OffML 5/1

Dw Showin D Off carries a strong 84.17 TrackWiz rating and 25% career win rate — respectable numbers in a trial field. At 5/1 on the morning line, trainer Zackary Stinebaugh and jockey Roman Cruz have this filly primed for a big effort, and the rating separation between her and the third-best horse is meaningful enough to like her for the place.

show1Miss ChilitosML 7/5

Miss Chilitos is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 with a 42% career win rate — the second-best in the field — and an 82.39 rating. The TrackWiz model slots her third, which is worth noting: even if the favorite gets outrun by Big Rotney and Dw Showin D Off, she's a logical show ticket at short odds. Trainer Oscar Nunez and jockey Oliver E. Martinez are a sharp combination to keep involved in your exotics.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Futurity Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Chile Gato is the overwhelming morning-line choice at 2/5, but Jvm Hot Victoria's 71% career win rate makes the exacta and trifecta far more interesting than the win pool alone.

win2Chile GatoML 2/5

Chile Gato earns a field-best 90 TrackWiz rating — a perfect-score ceiling that demands attention — and the 2/5 morning line reflects the connections' confidence. Trainer Jed H. Vane puts Francisco Calderon in the irons, a seasoned combo for a short dirt sprint. At that price the win pool won't excite, but in exactas and trifectas, anchoring Chile Gato on top is the play.

place5Jvm Hot VictoriaML 3/1

Jvm Hot Victoria is genuinely fascinating here — a 71% career win rate in a seven-horse trial field is remarkable, and the TrackWiz rating of 83.53 is a strong second behind only Chile Gato. Trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia sends her out at 3/1, and jockey Rosendo E. Pina Garcia gives her a live chance to run down anyone in her path. If Chile Gato bobbles, Hot Victoria could easily top this field.

show6FlyindwntheturnpikeML 8/1

Flyindwntheturnpike sits third in our ratings at 67.95, a comfortable gap over the rest of a thin bottom half in this trial. Trainer Matt Whitekiller — who already has Big Rotney in Race 2 — clearly knows the short sprint game, and Cody Rodger Smith again gets the call. At 8/1 on the morning line, this horse offers genuine trifecta value as a third-place finisher behind the two clear class horses.

Our three free picks span the opening claiming sprint and the first two Futurity Trials — and honestly, it's a strong cross-section of today's card. One Separate Seis kicks things off in Race 1 at 5/2 on the morning line, carrying an 87.81 TrackWiz rating into a claiming field that figures to be beatable. Then the Futurity Trial action begins in earnest with Big Rotney (Race 2, 3/1, 86.61) and Chile Gato (Race 3, 2/5, 90.00) — the latter being the highest-rated horse on the entire card and a near-lock on paper at short odds.

On a clear, firm day like today with no weather interference to muddy the pace picture, the rail figures to be neutral and gate speed is king. All three free picks project as horses that break sharp and don't look back — exactly the profile you want in a 400-yard sprint where there's simply no time to make up ground. Chile Gato at 2/5 won't excite the win-ticket crowd, but she's a cornerstone horse for anyone building exotics in Race 3.

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Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Futurity Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Three horses are bunched tightly in the ratings at the top of this Futurity Trial, setting up a potential three-way photo that makes the exacta box almost mandatory.

win6Mw Bcause Im AliveML 6/5

Mw Bcause Im Alive leads our model with an 89.03 TrackWiz rating and a standout 60% career win rate — the highest in this field by a wide margin. Trainer James J. Gonzales II has this horse ready, and jockey Christian Cardenas takes over at 6/5 on the morning line. That 60% win rate isn't a fluke — it says this horse shows up, and in a 400-yard burst, consistent closers who fire early are exactly what you want.

place1Catalina ScratchML 6/1

Catalina Scratch rates just behind the top two at 82.71 and carries a 33% career win rate, landing at 6/1 on the morning line — the most attractive price among the trio. Trainer Oscar Nunez gives Francisco Calderon the assignment, and this horse represents terrific place value given how tightly packed these top three are. Don't let the morning line fool you into fading her.

show4ChilinatorML 7/5

Chilinator draws the 7/5 morning-line tab but slots third in our ratings at 81.63. Trainer Matt Whitekiller is all over today's card and clearly has a strong stable this meet, and Cody Rodger Smith reunites with a horse the barn trusts. A 25% career win rate is solid, and at a likely short show price, Chilinator rounds out a logical trifecta play with the top two.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse allowance at 350 yards that looks like it belongs to D Inseperable D on ratings, but Eagle On the Prey offers a real price in the place spot for those who want to play against the top choice.

win3D Inseperable DML 5/2

D Inseperable D sits atop this 12-horse allowance with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — matching the best mark in Race 1 — and draws a fair 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer S. Trey Wood puts Ricky Ramirez aboard, and the 20% career win rate in an allowance field this wide is workable. In a 350-yard race with 12 horses breaking from a gate, the model's margin over the next-rated runner gives us confidence.

place10Eagle On the PreyML 6/1

Eagle On the Prey is a legitimate value angle at 6/1 on the morning line despite a 76.48 TrackWiz rating — second in this field. Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh and jockey Oliver E. Martinez team up with a horse carrying a 33% career win rate, the highest among the top-rated runners in this race. If D Inseperable D gets any traffic in the early break, Eagle On the Prey is the one to chase it down.

show1BetrueagleML 10/1

Betrueagle sits third in our ratings at 69.69 and offers genuine show value at 10/1 on the morning line. Trainer Brittany N. Tellez uses her own husband Froylan Tellez Ramirez in the irons — a family operation that tends to be patient and pick their spots carefully. A 14% career win rate won't blow you away, but at 10/1 in a wide field, this horse is worth tossing into trifectas as a live third.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

An all-maiden field of first-time starters at 350 yards where zero career wins across the board makes this a true unknown — but the ratings gap between the top two and the rest of the field is significant.

win10Your Flying DreamsML 5/1

Your Flying Dreams tops this maiden field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the biggest gap between first and second of any race today — which is meaningful when nobody has a career win to lean on. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh is a recurring name across today's card, a sign he has a deep, active stable with horses ready to run, and Ali Rivera gets the mount at 5/1 on the morning line. In maiden sprints, model-based ratings carry more weight when form is limited, and this one stands out clearly.

place1Pancho BigotesML 7/5

Pancho Bigotes is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 despite a 57.27 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in this field — the market clearly respects trainer Marc E. Jungers and jockey Raul Ramirez Jr. That's a legitimate pairing, and in a maiden race, connections with experience getting first-timers to the wire matters. A place ticket here is the play rather than burning money at 7/5 to win.

show4CoronainthefastlanesML 9/2

Coronainthefastlanes slots third in our ratings at 54.17 and gets Bryan Candanosa up for trainer Justin W. Joiner. At 9/2 on the morning line in a race where the top two stand clear, this horse is the logical third-wheel in the trifecta at a price that makes the ticket worth building. First-out maiden sprints are inherently unpredictable, and having a rated third option at that price covers the chaos.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

The 300-yard allowance is a distance that rewards early burst above all else, and TrackWiz sees Cowboy Leaving You over the morning-line chalk — setting up a prime upset special in the win pool.

win4Cowboy Leaving YouML 7/2

Cowboy Leaving You leads our ratings at 86.35 despite going off at 7/2, longer than the 2/1 morning-line favorite Jess Hot Z. Trainer Katie Carlos puts Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. aboard — a capable jockey who knows how to fire out of the gate at 300 yards. A 16% career win rate isn't flashy, but the TrackWiz edge over the favorite is meaningful, and at 7/2 you're getting paid to be right here.

place2Jess Hot ZML 2/1

Jess Hot Z is the public's choice at 2/1 and rates second at 80.08, with trainer John A. Stinebaugh again in the picture and Ali Rivera riding. Only a 7% career win rate creates some hesitation about backing at short odds to win, but this horse's raw rating makes the place a near-lock in a 10-horse sprint. A strong pace scenario at 300 yards could help or hurt depending on the break.

show10Significant OneML 3/1

Significant One at 3/1 and a 73.27 TrackWiz rating rounds out a logical top three in this allowance. Trainer Marc E. Jungers and jockey Raul Ramirez Jr. are pairing up again — they teamed up in Race 6 as well, suggesting both connections are active and engaged this card. A 14% career win rate is modest, but in a 300-yard race where anything can happen in the first stride, third place is very much in play.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Optional Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

The Fiscal Chick dominates the ratings in this Optional Claiming sprint, but a 2/1 morning-line price on a horse with just a 7% career win rate invites at least some skepticism — making the place and show spots genuinely interesting.

win5The Fiscal ChickML 2/1

The Fiscal Chick carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in this eight-horse optional claiming field — and trainer Esteban Rubio sends out Nestor Duran at 2/1. The gap between her and the second-ranked horse is the largest of any race today outside of Race 3, which is the strongest argument for trusting the number. Yes, a 7% career win rate is a concern, but in an optional claiming race, the model doesn't lie about class — and this horse simply outrates the field.

place7SnazzeeML 9/2

Snazzee slots in at a solid 70.83 rating and 18% career win rate for trainer Juan Manuel Baeza and jockey Oliver E. Martinez. At 9/2 on the morning line, this is arguably the best-priced horse on the board relative to ratings in this race. Martinez has been busy today and knows the surface — Snazzee is a logical second horse and a strong place play.

show8Famous and FavoriteML 3/1

Famous and Favorite carries the third-highest rating at 58.02 and a 22% career win rate — the best mark in the field behind only the top two by our model. Trainer Carlos Cruz Lopez and jockey Jesus Olivas team up at 3/1, representing a solid show option with genuine upside if the top of the field has any issues out of the gate. At 3/1 to show, the value isn't breathtaking, but the reliability is there.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

San Fernando Creek is the class of this 11-horse allowance by a clear margin, but Political Assasin lurks at a big price for those hunting exacta value in the finale.

win7San Fernando CreekML 7/5

San Fernando Creek tops the entire card at 89.42 — the highest TrackWiz rating of the day — and trainer John A. Stinebaugh sends Ali Rivera out at 7/5. The Stinebaugh-Rivera combination appears multiple times today and clearly has horses ready to fire. A 10% career win rate is the one caveat, but in a field this large and spread out on ratings, the model gap between San Fernando Creek and the rest of the field is decisive.

place1Political AssasinML 6/1

Political Assasin at 6/1 is the value play of this race — a 79.74 TrackWiz rating that ranks second and a trainer-jockey pairing of Elida Bustamante and Froylan Tellez Ramirez who have clearly pointed this horse at this spot. A 7% career win rate mirrors the win pick, but these two horses rate far above the field, and at 6/1 for the place, Political Assasin is a must-use in exactas and trifectas.

show4Jjs EagleML 5/2

Jjs Eagle checks in at a 71.00 rating and draws 5/2 on the morning line for trainer Leonardo Rivera-Antopia and jockey H. Javier Hernandez. The 12% career win rate is in line with the field average, and Hernandez is reliable in these short dirt sprints. Third in the model, third in the lineup — this is a straight show ticket and trifecta filler to close out the card.

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Bottom line: today's Lone Star card is built around speed, and TrackWiz analysis has a clear top horse in every race. Chile Gato is the headline act, but San Fernando Creek and Mw Bcause Im Alive make this card worth playing deep. Free picks cover Races 1–3 — and for the full nine-race breakdown, subscriber access is just a click away at TrackWiz pricing. Good luck out there.

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