Lone Star Picks & Predictions — November 5, 2026

Famous Moon Risen is the other half of what shapes up as a two-horse race, rating 87.20 — just two points behind the top pick. The A-grade jockey Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. hits the board 52% of the time over the past year and is very familiar with this horse. She's also gone 2-for-3 at Lone Star specifically, which is meaningful form at today's track. The concern is a thin in-the-money rate overall on dirt and in sprint races, but her local record and elite connections keep her firmly in the exotic mix.

Mdc Leading Yall is an 8/1 longshot who earns consideration for show by posting the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.05 sec/furlong, which stands out in a maiden race where many runners have no wins and limited data. She ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 42.17 among a field that falls off sharply outside the top two. The concern is a string of non-placings in recent outings, but that speed figure gives her a puncher's chance at a minor share of the purse.

Whatta Hocks grades out beautifully from a connections standpoint — jockey Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. is at the top of the riding colony (22% win rate, 52% in-the-money) and trainer Arnold Herrera earns an A. She's placed in three of her last five starts on dirt, owns a 60% career in-the-money mark, and her 71.13 rating ranks second in the field. The concern worth noting is that her recent race speed figure ranked last among timed horses, and she's not on Lasix while most competitors are — but her connections and consistency make her a clear place contender.

Xcessive Celebration at 8/1 gives exotic players a live option for show at a price. She ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 65.63, owns a 50% career in-the-money rate, and her recent race speed of 11.99 sec/furlong ranks third in the field — squarely in the mix. She's gone 4-for-8 on dirt in terms of in-the-money finishes, so the surface isn't a question mark. For trifecta and superfecta construction, she's the kind of overlaid middle piece that can make a ticket.

Mucho Fast brings an impressive 2-for-3 record at the 330-yard distance specifically — the most relevant stat in a race at exactly that trip — and her 82.06 TrackWiz rating slots her second in the field. A class drop from $20,000 to $15,000 is another positive angle, suggesting connections are maneuvering to find a spot. She's a maiden, so there's inherent uncertainty, but the distance form and class relief make her the most logical place horse in here.

Back Check leads all timed runners with the fastest recent race speed at 12.03 sec/furlong, which stands out in a maiden field where raw speed can go a long way. The 68.09 rating ranks third, and trainer Marc Jungers earns a B- with jockey Raul Ramirez Jr. at a B — a solid mid-level combo. The concern is an 0-for-2 record at Lone Star and limited placings recently, but that top speed figure gives her a live shot at snapping through for a minor check at 7/2.

Ml Preciado brings the fastest recent race speed in this field at 11.83 sec/furlong and won the last time she faced this exact surface and distance combination — a sharp angle in a 330-yard dirt sprint. Her 76.86 rating ranks second, and she's cashed in 5-of-10 starts on dirt tracks overall. At 9/2 on the morning line, she represents genuine value as a place play for bettors looking to build exotics around the top two.

Crown This Pyc at 8/1 is worth a show play based on her strong record on the surface — 4-of-7 in-the-money on dirt — and two placings in her last three starts. She's coming back from a 152-day layoff, which is a legitimate concern, but she won at this surface and distance level previously, and the class jump from $7,500 to $10,000 is modest. For trifecta players, she's an interesting third-slot option at a price that offers real overlay potential.

One Fine Wine at 6/1 offers real value in the place spot for a horse ranking second in TrackWiz ratings at 67.06. She's placed in five of her last six starts — the kind of consistent in-the-money form that makes her a reliable exotic piece — and owns a 4-wins, 12-of-21 record on dirt tracks. The concerns are a Lasix absence and a claiming price jump from $20,000 to $35,000, so she's moving up in class today. But five of six placings heading in is hard to fade completely, especially at that price.

Ima Chili brings the most impressive local record of any secondary horse in this field — 5 wins and 6-of-8 in-the-money at Lone Star specifically, which is exactly where we're racing today. She also won her last start on October 17th and owns an 8-win career on dirt overall. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's not a traditional show pick on price, but her track record here and sharp recent form make her a cornerstone of any multi-horse exotic underneath Nine One Won.

Eagle F15 at 3/1 is a deserving second choice, rating 82.12 and showing a 3-of-5 in-the-money rate on dirt with three placings in her last five starts — consistent, forward form. She's placed in 60% of her career starts, which is an unusually high rate for a maiden, suggesting she knocks on the door regularly. With the top two horses separated by only a few rating points, Eagle F15 is a legitimate threat to reverse the order if Flaxen's distance concerns prove real.

Lets B Crystal Clear at 6/1 gives exotics players a logical third-slot horse: a 70.76 TrackWiz rating ranks her third in the field, and jockey Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. and trainer Jose Garcia both grade out at A — the best connections of any horse outside the top two. She's not on Lasix while most of the field is, which is worth noting, but that elite jockey-trainer pairing makes her a reasonable show play in what could be a contentious three-way trifecta.