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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 31, 2026

October 31, 202612 racesAll Lone Star picks

Best bets at Lone Star, October 31, 2026

Race 14Bull DawggML 5/27:05 PM EDT

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Happy Halloween from Lone Star Park, where the costumes are optional but the speed is mandatory. Twelve races are on the docket this Saturday afternoon in Grand Prairie, and the weather is cooperating nicely — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 74°F means the dirt strip should be playing fast and true all day long.

What makes today's card stand out is the sheer volume of Quarter Horse Trials. Seven of the twelve races are Trial heats, meaning these aren't just races — they're qualifiers. Horses are running for a spot in a future final, which adds a layer of intrigue you don't always get on a standard racing day. Connections will be pushing for top-two finishes and sharp gate breaks, so expect maximum effort from every stall.

The highest-rated contender on our board is Heza Hawkeye in Race 8, checking in at an 89.12 TrackWiz rating. But there's value spread across the full card, including a couple of spots where the morning line looks ripe for the taking.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden · 440 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden dash at 440 yards where TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier separated by a big gap from the rest of the field — but maiden sprints at this distance can turn on gate speed alone.

win4Bull DawggML 5/2

Bull Dawgg draws our top TrackWiz rating of 87.81 in a field where the next-closest competitor (Oh Eagle Rose) comes in at 66.14 — that's a significant separation in our model. Sent off at 5/2 on the morning line, Raul Padilla Hernandez Jr. gets the call for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III, and this is the kind of horse you want underneath you in a 440-yard sprint where the race is essentially over before the first turn. With maiden fields this unpredictable, a dominant rating edge is exactly what you need to anchor your tickets.

place5Oh Eagle RoseML 3/1

Oh Eagle Rose at 3/1 morning line is our place selection with a solid TrackWiz rating of 66.14 under jockey Ruben Delarosa Jr. for conditioner Richard D. Sedillo. In maiden company, the second-best-rated horse in the field often runs into a minor share of the purse even when the top selection dominates, and the odds here represent reasonable value for the place spot.

show3Six Pack in the BackML 7/2

Six Pack in the Back brings a TrackWiz rating of 53.38 and draws favorable attention at 7/2 on the morning line under Francisco Giles for trainer Bradley C. Bolen. In a maiden race where anything can happen out of the gate, having the third-ranked horse at a price that reflects something north of a chalk ticket makes this a worthwhile exotic inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:31 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

The optional claiming conditions shake out as a two-horse battle at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, with B a Flirt and Jess Revenge both carrying big numbers while the rest of the field clusters well below them — but at 250 yards, nothing is a lock.

win2B a FlirtML 5/2

B a Flirt tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws a career win rate of 14% in optional claiming company — modest by some standards, but in a short field at 250 yards, consistency matters. Ruben Delarosa Jr. is a rider who knows how to get a horse firing out of the gate, and trainer Jose A. Palma-Rosales Jr. has this one pointed correctly at 5/2 on the morning line. The rating separation between B a Flirt and the third-ranked horse (Fortyacres and Amule at 63.86) is substantial, and we like this one to earn its spot at the wire.

place3Jess RevengeML 9/5

Jess Revenge comes in rated 76.56 and owns a 15% career win rate under Nestor Duran for Carlos Cruz Lopez — and at 9/5 morning line, the market clearly agrees this is a contender. The gap between Jess Revenge and B a Flirt on our model is real, which is why we slot this one into the place position rather than on top, but do not underestimate a horse going gate to wire at this distance.

show8Fortyacres and AmuleML 5/1

Fortyacres and Amule is an interesting show play at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 63.86 under Francisco Calderon for KeElronn Hatley. While the career win rate of 11% is modest, the morning line price and a rating that ranks third in this field make it a legitimate exotic anchor for the show spot in what shapes up as a short, sharp affair.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

We're giving everyone a free look at Races 1, 2, and 3 to kick off the afternoon. Bull Dawgg opens the day in the 440-yard maiden event, and our analysis likes what we see from a ratings standpoint heading into a race where first-time starters and lightly raced horses are sorting themselves out. Over in Race 2, the optional claiming ranks collapse to a lightning-quick 250 yards — blink and it's over — and B a Flirt lands at the top of our card at 5/2 on the morning line. Race 3 stretches to 350 yards in allowance company, where The Hottest Chilitos earns the nod. All three free picks carry identical 87.81 TrackWiz ratings, which tells you the top of each field is genuinely competitive — don't sleep on pace and gate speed in these short sprints.

One thing to keep in mind across the early races: on a partly cloudy, mild day like today, the Lone Star dirt tends to reward horses that break clean and get position immediately. In races under 400 yards, there simply isn't enough real estate to make up ground. Early foot is everything, and our free picks reflect that bias.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:57 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

The allowance distance of 350 yards produces a fascinating pace puzzle — The Hottest Chilitos carries the top rating by a wide margin, but Jj Kiss brings an eye-catching 40% career win rate that demands attention as a potential spoiler.

win7The Hottest ChilitosML 5/2

The Hottest Chilitos is our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, the highest in this allowance field by more than 20 points. Francisco Giles gets the mount for trainer Jesus M. Raygoza, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the crowd is with our model here. The career win rate of 16% in allowance company isn't flashy, but the rating dominance in this particular field is hard to argue against, and 350 yards is short enough that pure ability tends to win out.

place8Lethal MondayML 3/1

Lethal Monday rates second in this field at 67.02 and goes with H. Javier Hernandez up for trainer Carlos I. Mendoza at 3/1. A 33% career win rate is genuinely strong, and that kind of consistency in allowance sprints means this horse tends to hit the board. We like it sandwiched between the top pick and the show selection in exacta and trifecta plays.

show4Coronado JessML 7/2

Coronado Jess brings a TrackWiz rating of 65.01 under Nestor Duran for Jose A. Garcia at 7/2. The 25% career win rate is respectable, and the price is appealing enough to include in exotics — if The Hottest Chilitos dominates but a pace scenario scrambles the finish order, Coronado Jess profiles as the most likely beneficiary.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

8:23 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Races 4 through 6 are trials at 400 yards, and this first section features a trio of serious contenders at the top — Karma Cha Ching, Wera C, and Full Moon Desire all rate above 74, setting up a genuinely competitive heat.

win6Karma Cha ChingML 7/2

Karma Cha Ching is our top pick here with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and a career win rate of 35% — numbers that tell the story of a horse that knows how to close out a race. Nestor Duran gets the assignment for Esteban Rubio at 7/2 on the morning line, which actually represents mild value given the rating. In a trial format where you need to post a qualifying time, a horse with demonstrated closing ability and a strong win rate is exactly the type you want to back.

place3Wera CML 3/1

Wera C rates 79.73 and carries a 38% career win rate for trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez with Randy Vega up at 3/1 morning line. That win percentage is second-best among the top three contenders, and in a trial heat where multiple horses can benefit from a clean run, Wera C looks like a prime place ticket component.

show10Full Moon DesireML 2/1

Full Moon Desire comes in with a 74.97 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 55% career win rate for Samuel Mendoza — that win rate stands out in this field and suggests a horse that frequently converts its chances. Ruben Castro rides at 2/1 morning line, making this the public's choice even though our model slots it third. As a show play or the third leg of a trifecta, Full Moon Desire's consistency makes it hard to leave off the ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

8:49 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Race 5's trial section is headlined by a dominant statistical standout — Shes Ec to Tempt owns a 90% career win rate that is genuinely extraordinary, though Flying Joy 1 and Di Kvn Waven give this heat legitimate depth.

win5Shes Ec to TemptML 2/1

Shes Ec to Tempt is as close to a standout as you'll find on today's card — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 combined with a staggering 90% career win rate under Francisco Calderon for Jose A. Garcia makes this our most confident top selection of the trial races. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but you're paying for near-certainty in terms of class and form. When a horse wins nine out of every ten starts it enters, you take note.

place7Flying Joy 1ML 3/1

Flying Joy 1 rates 81.15 and carries a 36% career win rate under Ricky Ramirez for trainer S. Trey Wood at 3/1. The rating gap between Flying Joy 1 and the top selection is real, but this is still a high-quality horse that should comfortably qualify in this trial, making it a natural place selection alongside the heavy top pick.

show3Di Kvn WavenML 5/2

Di Kvn Waven brings a 75.45 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 41% career win rate for trainer Oscar Nunez with Gilberto Linares in the irons at 5/2. That win percentage ranks second in this field and suggests a horse with genuine ability — in an alternate universe where the top two have a bobble at the start, Di Kvn Waven is right there to capitalize.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

9:15 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

The third 400-yard trial section is the most competitive of the bunch — Apollirevenge's 66% career win rate is a thunderbolt stat, and a tight cluster of ratings between 75 and 87 means no horse here can be dismissed lightly.

win1ApollirevengeML 3/1

Apollirevenge tops our TrackWiz model for this trial at 87.08 and comes in with a remarkable 66% career win rate — the best of any horse running in today's trial sections outside of Race 5. Francisco Calderon takes the mount for trainer Kash Reed at 3/1 morning line, and the combination of rating dominance and proven winning consistency makes this our confident top selection. In a qualifying trial, a horse this accomplished tends to do what it always does: get to the wire first.

place4Lookatme ZML 7/2

Lookatme Z rates 79.56 for Samuel Mendoza with Bryan Candanosa up at 7/2, and a 20% career win rate in this company tells you there's enough ability to earn a placing. The rating is solid, sitting second in this field on our model, and the morning line price is generous enough that including this horse in the place slot of exactas adds tangible value.

show6Remarkable CowgirlML 6/1

Remarkable Cowgirl at 6/1 morning line is an interesting exotics play with a TrackWiz rating of 76.23 and a 33% career win rate under Sergio Becerra Jr. for Raul Ramirez. The odds suggest the public is underestimating this horse relative to its rating — that 33% win rate in this class of racing is legitimate, and the price means you get good overlay value on the show end of your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

9:41 PM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

This 250-yard maiden dash at night draws a massive 12-horse field, creating a scramble at the gate where early speed and clean breaks will be everything — Aj Venom Player is the clear public choice but Deputy Fergusen offers genuine longshot appeal.

win7Aj Venom PlayerML 6/5

Aj Venom Player draws the 6/5 morning line favoritism in a field of 12 maiden runners, and our TrackWiz rating of 85.25 backs up the public's confidence. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. gets the call for trainer Jose A. Garcia — a combination that appears multiple times on today's card and clearly has horses ready to run. In a 250-yard dash with first-time starters and limited form to parse, a big rating edge and heavy market support is the best foundation you can have.

place11Deputy FergusenML 10/1

Deputy Fergusen rates 76.88 — second-highest in this field — and goes off at 10/1 morning line under Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega for trainer Jacobo Mejia. That's a meaningful disconnect between our model and the morning line price, and in maiden company with 12 runners, this is a horse that could easily outrun its odds. The rating suggests legitimate ability that the market hasn't fully priced in.

show2Catching Your DreamsML 12/1

Catching Your Dreams is our show selection at 12/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 59.26 under Ali Rivera for trainer John A. Stinebaugh. Stinebaugh has multiple runners on today's card, which often indicates a barn in form, and at double-digit odds for a horse rating third in this field, the show value here is appealing for trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 8

10:07 PM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

The first 440-yard trial of the evening features a clear top-rated horse in Heza Hawkeye, but don't sleep on Rf Runaway Cowboy at 5/1 — this heat has the feel of a front-runner's race with a price play lurking in the middle.

win1Heza HawkeyeML 8/5

Heza Hawkeye leads our TrackWiz model at 89.12 — the highest rating among any horse in tonight's four 440-yard trial heats — and that carries significant weight. Jesus Olivas rides for trainer Sebastian Gonzales, and a 36% career win rate confirms this horse converts its chances at a strong clip. At 8/5 morning line, the crowd has done the homework, and our model agrees: this is the horse to beat in this section.

place4Rf Runaway CowboyML 5/1

Rf Runaway Cowboy rates 73.19 under Raul Ramirez Jr. for Marc E. Jungers at 5/1 on the morning line. With a 23% career win rate, this horse is consistent enough to earn a check in a trial, and the price relative to its rating suggests the public is focused primarily on the top two morning-line choices. In exacta wheels underneath Heza Hawkeye, this is a value play worth including.

show3Hes No PoliticianML 12/1

Hes No Politician is our show selection at 12/1 morning line — that's a price — with a TrackWiz rating of 64.08 under Sergio Becerra Jr. for Raul Ramirez. The 12% career win rate is modest, but the rating ranks third in this field, and at 12/1, the overlay potential in trifecta plays is real. Longshot third-place finishers at big prices are what turn a decent trifecta into a memorable one.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 9

10:33 PM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

Race 9's 440-yard trial section is the tightest at the top — Point Blank Range, Aj Cyclone, and Eagle On a June Bug are separated by less than a full rating point, making this the most pick-em heat of the evening.

win4Point Blank RangeML 4/1

Point Blank Range edges our model at 85.62 with a career win rate of 55% under Roman Cruz for trainer Dee Keener — and that win rate at 4/1 morning line looks like genuine value. When a horse wins more than half its starts and the market still sends it off at a price rather than as a heavy chalk, it often means the competition looks tough on paper. Our model says Point Blank Range has the edge, and a 55% win rate says this is a horse that closes the deal.

place9Aj CycloneML 7/2

Aj Cyclone rates 85.21 — within a point of the top selection — and carries a 22% career win rate under Juan Pulido for Kash Reed at 7/2. The tight rating gap between these two makes the race genuinely uncertain at the top, which is exactly why we spread across both in the win-place structure. Pulido and the Kash Reed barn are active throughout tonight's card, which often signals horses arriving in peak condition.

show5Eagle On a June BugML 8/5

Eagle On a June Bug carries an 8/5 morning line — the shortest price in this field — alongside a TrackWiz rating of 84.73 and a 50% career win rate under Christian Cardenas for Sebastian Gonzales. Our model actually slots this one third despite the public making it the favorite, which is why we have it in the show spot rather than on top. That 50% win rate is impossible to ignore in exotics, and this horse almost certainly hits the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 10

10:59 PM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

Race 10's 440-yard trial presents a fascinating top-two dynamic between Dr Stone Cold and Royalist — both rated in the high 80s but with very different profiles, and Kj Xquizit Jess lurks as the most credible third wheel.

win6Dr Stone ColdML 5/2

Dr Stone Cold tops our TrackWiz model at 87.81 with Juan Pulido in the irons for trainer Kash Reed at 5/2 on the morning line. The 22% career win rate is modest on its surface, but the rating is dominant in this field, and Pulido aboard a Kash Reed runner in a trial has proven to be a consistent winning formula tonight. We go on top with Dr Stone Cold as the most complete profile in this section.

place2RoyalistML 8/5

Royalist rates 87.25 — nearly identical to the top selection — and carries a 50% career win rate under Luis L. Vivanco for trainer Ben Olaveson at 8/5 morning line. That win rate is legitimately elite, and the public has clearly identified this horse as the betting favorite. Our model gives a razor-thin edge to Dr Stone Cold, but Royalist's consistency demands inclusion in the place spot and should factor prominently in all exotic tickets.

show3Kj Xquizit JessML 3/1

Kj Xquizit Jess rates 70.62 with a 37% career win rate under Gabriel Medrano for Wesley T. Giles at 3/1. With both top selections rated so closely, a scenario where they bump or one breaks poorly could easily hand the third spot to Kj Xquizit Jess — and a 37% career win rate means this horse has demonstrated consistent ability to finish. A solid trifecta anchor at a fair price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 11

11:25 PM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

The penultimate trial at 440 yards is anchored by Jc Speeding's dominant rating, but Envestor's 50% career win rate makes this a more competitive heat than the morning lines suggest at first glance.

win2Jc SpeedingML 5/2

Jc Speeding earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81 alongside an exceptional 46% career win rate — nearly half of all starts converted to wins. Roman Cruz takes the mount for trainer Dee Keener at 5/2 morning line, and the Cruz-Keener combination also produced Point Blank Range in Race 9 tonight, showing this barn knows how to prepare horses for trial competition. At 5/2, the price is fair for a horse this accomplished.

place6EnvestorML 3/1

Envestor rates 66.99 with a 50% career win rate under Ali Rivera for Zackary Stinebaugh at 3/1 — and that 50% win rate is the best in this field by any horse not named Jc Speeding. A horse that wins half its races tends to run into the money frequently, making Envestor a natural place pick and a strong exotics component even at a price that doesn't scream overlay.

show1Tga CowboyML 7/2

Tga Cowboy draws a 7/2 morning line and rates 60.24 under Gabriel Medrano for Wesley T. Giles. While the 14% career win rate isn't dazzling, the TrackWiz rating places this horse third in the field, and 7/2 for the third-best-rated horse in a trial represents a fair value proposition for the show spot and bottom of your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 12

11:51 PM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

The final trial of the evening wraps up a long card with Holy Guacamolee commanding a strong rating advantage, though Cyber Blues and Unleeshed at 4/1 and 3/1 respectively ensure there's genuine depth behind the top pick.

win4Holy GuacamoleeML 2/1

Holy Guacamolee closes out the card as our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and a stellar 57% career win rate under Juan Pulido for trainer Kash Reed. Pulido and the Kash Reed barn have been active throughout tonight's trial races, and this horse may represent the barn's best chance of the card. At 2/1 morning line, the juice is short, but a 57% win rate in this class of racing earns that kind of market confidence — and our model backs it up.

place2Cyber BluesML 4/1

Cyber Blues rates 75.35 with a 7% career win rate under Francisco Calderon for James J. Gonzales II at 4/1 morning line. The win rate is low, which is part of why the morning line offers some value here — our model has this horse rated second in the field, suggesting it runs better than its overall win percentage implies. If Holy Guacamolee handles this field, Cyber Blues looks like the most likely runner-up.

show6UnleeshedML 3/1

Unleeshed is our show selection with a TrackWiz rating of 74.75 and a 36% career win rate under Sergio Becerra Jr. for Raul Ramirez at 3/1. That win rate ranks second among the top three selections in this heat, and a trainer who has been active on tonight's card shows a barn working with live horses. Unleeshed is a confident exotics inclusion to round out what could be a profitable closing-race trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Twelve races, seven Trials, and a dirt strip playing fast on a beautiful fall Halloween afternoon — Lone Star is serving up a full card worth your attention. Our free best bets spotlight Bull Dawgg, B a Flirt, and The Hottest Chilitos to get you started, while Heza Hawkeye sits as our top-rated horse on the entire card. For pace projections, Trial section analysis, and full exotic ticket recommendations across all 12 races, the complete breakdown is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz (/pricing). Good luck, and ride safely out there.

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