Lone Star Picks & Predictions — November 6, 2026

Jm Rose (9) is a legitimate value play at 12/1 on the morning line. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. has posted a 22% win rate and 52% ITM over the past year — that's a top-flight book for this level — and the horse's recent speed figure of 11.86 sec/furlong ranks second in the field. The dirt record (3 of 15) and Lone Star record (1 of 5) are mild concerns, but the class drop from $7,500 to $5,000 and the elite pilot make this a smart underneath play.

Spirit Tac (7) rates third in the field at 73.54 and owns a 40% in-the-money rate — the best of any horse in this race outside of the top pick. What's notable is the absence of red flags: no concerning speed rank, no Lasix disadvantage listed, and a solid jockey-trainer pairing in Padilla Hernandez and Jungers. It's the quiet, steady profile that tends to hold up for show payoffs in fields this large.

What the Hawk Sashay (3) rates second in the field at 73.36 and carries a 33% in-the-money rate with trainer Ricardo Aguirre, whose barn has shown solid results at this level. The Lasix concern is real — nine rivals are using it and this one isn't — but from post 3 it gets a clean look, and the inside draw should compensate at a distance where every stride counts. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's not huge value, but it's the safest underneath horse in the race.

Royals Money H (1) gives you a live exotics piece at 5/2 — solid odds for a show candidate. The horse clocked the second-fastest recent speed in the field at 12.12 sec/furlong and rated third overall at 67.31. The inside post is an asset in a short sprint, though the record of just one placing in the last six races and no placings in two Lone Star starts are soft spots to acknowledge going in.

Superior Panther G (8) is the value underneath play here, sitting at 4/1 on the morning line with the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 63.58. The second-fastest recent speed figure at 12.49 sec/furlong gives it a legitimate speed profile, though the long layoff — 728 days between races — is a significant flag and you should factor in some first-back rust. If it rebounds anywhere close to its prior form, it's a live place horse.

Special Eagle (1) brings the morning-line favorite's attention to the inside post and rated third in the field at 59.80 with a 25% in-the-money rate. The concern is the form line — just one placing in four sprint races and one placing in four dirt starts — but the inside post in a 220-yard sprint is a real asset, and 2/1 on the show end gives you a reasonable hedge if the top two don't both fire.

Jess Perrys Cowgirl (1) is essentially a co-favorite by the numbers — an 86.88 rating and the second-fastest recent speed at 11.78 sec/furlong. The form is genuine: placed in three of the last five races, three of five dirt starts, and a solid 60% in-the-money rate overall. The inside post from gate 1 is an asset in a sprint, and trainer Christopher Earlywine and jockey Raul Ramirez Jr. form a workmanlike connection. If Cartels Girl has any gate issues, this one is right there to take advantage.

Kate Carmack (10) gives you a reasonable show anchor at 7/2 on the morning line. Rated third in the field at 65.65 with a 33% in-the-money rate, there's not a dramatic speed figure advantage to point to here — but the 7/2 price is fair for a third-place finisher in a race where the top two are so dominant that the show pool may be generous. Sometimes the safest exotic play is the horse that simply doesn't have a reason to run badly.

Gold Ivory Digger (4) is the speed angle underneath — ranked first for recent race times at 12.23 sec/furlong and carrying a 66% in-the-money rate that's the best in the field. Placed in two of the last three races and two of three dirt starts, the form is genuinely consistent. Trainer Arnold Herrera earns an 'A' grade, which adds credibility. The Lasix concern (not using it while eight rivals are) is real, but the raw speed figure and elite in-the-money rate make this the most logical exacta partner.

Make My Debut Gl (10) rounds out the ticket at 7/2 on the morning line, sitting third in the field rating-wise at 59.14. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III earns an 'A' grade — one of the better trainer marks in this field — though the form line of just one placing in four sprint races and one in four dirt starts shows this horse needs to step forward. At 7/2, the price at least gives you room to include it in your show exotics without breaking the bank.

Eagles Up (6) is the natural underneath horse — a 29% career win rate and 64% in-the-money rate are elite numbers, and five wins from 17 dirt starts shows real class on this surface. The third-fastest recent speed figure at 11.41 sec/furlong keeps it in the conversation pace-wise, and two wins from three Lone Star starts suggests the track suits this horse. The concern is just one placing in four starts at the 440-yard distance specifically — worth acknowledging, but the overall profile is too strong to ignore.

Jrs Outlook Is Sweet (7) brings the most intriguing stat in the race — a 40% career win rate — and the second-fastest recent speed figure at 11.38 sec/furlong. The 391-day layoff is the elephant in the room here: coming back from over a year off, even a horse with this profile needs to shake off the rust. If the connections have this one ready, it's dangerous; if not, the layoff could be costly. The 5/2 morning line might actually be a touch short given the question mark — but it's impossible to leave off the ticket entirely.

A Flyingdynamite 123 (7) owns the second-fastest recent speed figure in the race at 11.68 sec/furlong and rated second in the field at 61.78. The concern is recent form — just one placing in the last five races and one in five sprint starts — suggesting this horse is capable of running a big figure without always converting it into a placing. At 2/1 on the morning line it's a bit short for the form record, but the speed figure is genuine and it sim-projects to 17.85% of outcomes, keeping it solidly in the picture.

Cowboy Up 123 (8) gives you a steady show anchor at 5/1 — rated third in the field at 59.44 with a 33% in-the-money rate. There are no glaring concerns in the data, which at this level is itself a positive. The TrackWiz sim projects a 12.36% share of outcomes — a reasonable floor — and in a 12-horse field where a lot of entrants have checkered records, this one's quiet consistency makes it a sensible ticket inclusion.