Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 24, 2026

Pull a Cork (No. 4) rates second in the field at 77.96 and goes at 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Esteban Rubio notably saddles both the win and place picks today — a sign the barn is loaded for bear in this race. Jockey Claudio Ponce Aguilar takes the mount, and with an 8% career win rate, Pull a Cork brings enough experience to hit the board even if The Fiscal Chick gets away cleanly.

Jody Jones (No. 5) is the surprise show pick at 12/1 on the morning line with a 52.10 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate — one of the better conversion figures in this field. Trainer Brian Stroud puts J.R. Ramirez, Jr. up, and at a big price, Jody Jones makes an intriguing trifecta wheel candidate. The 11% win rate in a field where career experience is thin gives her a subtle edge in form.

Chilitos Suspect (No. 2) rates second in the field at 73.61 and is priced at 5/2 morning line — short enough that the market respects the horse but long enough to provide place-ticket value. Trainer Antonio S. Martinez sends out Brayan Morales-Alonzo, and in a 250-yard race where fractions don't exist, the horse with the second-best model score is often the horse that runs second.

Foxy Cartel (No. 9) rates third in the field at 66.21 and goes at 6/1 on the morning line — a price that feels generous given the rating. Trainer Javier Ruiz Ortiz teams with Alfredo Contreras, and at 250 yards the outermost gates can be a slight disadvantage depending on the track, but Foxy Cartel's rating positions her as the logical third horse in trifecta combinations.

Strike My Fancy (No. 4) is the real value angle in Race 6 — a 65.66 TrackWiz rating at a 12/1 morning line is a significant price-to-rating discrepancy. Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez sends Jose R. Herbert out on a horse that our model rates second in the field despite being among the longest prices in the top group. In maiden claiming sprints, overlooked horses at this kind of price are exactly the place-ticket plays that pay off.

Kj Neon Moon (No. 8) rates at 55.83 and draws a 7/2 morning line — one of the more reasonably priced horses in the field relative to rating. Trainer Jimmy W. Guerra taps Claudio Ponce Aguilar, a jockey appearing multiple times on today's card which typically signals a confident booking. Kj Neon Moon sits in the middle of the rating pack but above the field's lower tier, making her a dependable show anchor.

Cowgirl Cool 123 (No. 1) carries a 76.61 TrackWiz rating alongside a 20% career win rate — solid numbers for an allowance sprint. Trainer Oscar Nunez sends Ali Rivera to the gate from the inside post, which is a clean draw at 220 yards. The 2/1 morning-line tag on a horse with a one-in-five win rate in allowance conditions is fair value, and she figures to be right there if Our Eagle Has Landed encounters any trouble.

American Honi (No. 8) rates at 74.41 with a 16% career win rate and goes at 5/1 — a price that gives you room to breathe in the exotics. Trainer Alfred A. Aparicio puts Angel A. Fierro up, and at 220 yards from the outside post, any horse needs a clean break. The 16% win rate and third-highest rating in the field makes American Honi a legitimate trifecta anchor rather than a fill-in.

Dashin Current 509 (No. 9) rates at 62.43 — second-best in the field — and is a legitimate surprise at 12/1 on the morning line given how the model views the horse. Trainer Marc E. Jungers saddles this one with Raul Ramirez, Jr. aboard, and the price-to-rating gap here is one of the more glaring discrepancies on today's card. In a large field, 12/1 on a horse our model rates second is exactly the kind of place-ticket value that makes exotics profitable over time.

Feature Me Tuf (No. 8) rates at 62.06 — nearly identical to Dashin Current 509 — and draws a 10/1 morning line from trainer Richard D. Sedillo with Alejandro Medina up. The tight clustering of three horses in the 62-72 rating range means this race could easily produce a 10/1 or 12/1 show horse, and Feature Me Tuf's position in that cluster makes her a smart trifecta inclusion at a generous price.

A Sun of Thunder (No. 1) rates at 74.63 — second in the field — and draws a 4/1 morning line from trainer Aracely Mejia, with Alejandro Medina up. The inside post at 350 yards is advantageous, and while a 7% career win rate is modest, it represents actual stakes experience that counts in claiming company. The combination of gate position and rating makes A Sun of Thunder a reliable place contender.

Mtz Seperate Agent (No. 2) rates at 70.75 with a 9% career win rate and draws a 9/2 morning-line tag — fair odds for a horse in the top three of our model. Trainer Edgar Martinez sends Claudio Ponce Aguilar out from post two, and the 9% win rate across a career gives some form confidence in a claiming field. With three horses bunched in the 70-86 rating range, Mtz Seperate Agent is the logical third piece in trifecta combos.

Good Blue Candy (No. 5) is the most intriguing horse on the card in Race 10 — a 62.29 TrackWiz rating paired with a 14% career win rate, yet the morning line has her at 20/1. That's an enormous price-to-form discrepancy. Trainer Adan Guzman puts Noe Villatoro up, and a horse with a 14% career win rate almost never goes off at 20/1 in a claiming field of this caliber. Flag this one for place and exotic play.

One Bad Fdd (No. 8) rates at 60.94 with an 8% career win rate and draws the 2/1 morning line — making her the public's second choice despite being ranked third by our model. Trainer Isidro Hinojosa sends Francisco Calderon out, and while the 2/1 price doesn't excite for show wagering, the career experience and the public support suggest she'll be competitive in the finishing positions even if the model prefers Barbarossa and Good Blue Candy.

Full Throttle N 25 (No. 1) rates at 77.03 with an eye-catching 25% career win rate — the highest conversion figure in the entire Race 11 field. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh puts Ali Rivera in from the inside post at 5/2 on the morning line, and a horse that wins one-in-four starts in optional claiming company is not to be taken lightly regardless of what the rating says. The inside post and elite win rate make this a strong place play.

Mm Blown Away (No. 2) rates at 65.17 with a 16% career win rate and draws a 4/1 morning line from trainer Carlos Cruz Lopez, with Gilberto Linares up. The 16% win rate is meaningful in a field of this size, and Mm Blown Away sits comfortably above the mid-field cluster in both rating and experience. At 4/1 in the show spot, this is a solid trifecta anchor with genuine form to back it up.

Famous Moon Risen (No. 11) rates at 72.77 and is positioned at 2/1 on the morning line — the public's second choice, and our model agrees with the placement. Trainer Harvey Baeza sends J.R. Ramirez, Jr. out on a horse making her case in a 300-yard maiden sprint, and the 72.77 rating is well clear of the third tier of the field. In a race where the top two are meaningfully separated from the rest, the place ticket on Famous Moon Risen offers reasonable value.

Maxxe (No. 4) rates at 72.04 — nearly identical to Famous Moon Risen — and draws 5/2 on the morning line from trainer Carlos Cruz Lopez, with Gilberto Linares aboard. The near-identical ratings between Maxxe and Famous Moon Risen suggest a genuine battle for the second and third spots, and the 5/2 price makes Maxxe an interesting show option and trifecta include. Linares is in the irons on multiple horses today, signaling a confident barn.