Free Fort Erie Picks & Predictions

Commander Joe opens at 9/5 — technically the morning-line favorite — and backs up an 79.57 TrackWiz rating. Interesting to note that Mileni runs both Commander Joe and A La Carte here; if the barn's main intent is with A La Carte, Commander Joe could still do enough to fill the exacta. Helen Marie Vanek has been busy on today's card and should keep this one close through six furlongs.

Kentucky Bill is the intriguing piece in the exotics at 3/1 on the morning line. A career win rate of 37% is easily the best in the field — that tells you this horse knows how to finish the job when things set up right. Kirk Johnson gets the call for trainer Daniel Wills, and at a solid 46.05 rating, there's enough here to land a check.

Mulmur checks in at a 58.06 rating and 7/2 odds, making it the clear second choice in our analysis. Trained by Roy George Agostino and ridden by Michael David, the horse posted an average speed figure of 53 — in line with several rivals but backed by the stronger overall profile. In a wide-open maiden field, Mulmur looks like a solid place anchor for your exactas.

Bust the Trust draws attention at 5/2 on the morning line despite having no recorded average speed figure in our data — suggesting this may be a first-time starter or one with a very limited workout-based profile. Trainer Sharon Ceccato sends out a horse that the oddsmakers clearly respect, and Juan Crawford is a capable hand if the talent is there. At a 57.5 rating and morning-line second choice, Bust the Trust is worth threading into your trifecta.

Ilikeitwhenitsnows at 10/1 is the marquee value play in Race 3. That 74.19 rating is second-best in the field and would be a top-two horse in most races today, yet the morning line has it dismissed at double digits — that's a legitimate overlay. Leo Salles, who is also aboard A La Carte in Race 1, takes the mount for trainer Doug Carter. If you're playing exotics, this is the horse to spread underneath.

Rose for Carrick rounds out the top three at 3/1 and a 69.62 TrackWiz rating — third-best on the sheet. Kirk Johnson, a familiar face throughout today's card, gets the assignment for trainer Julie Mathes. Seven furlongs on turf can suit closers and pace-sensitive runners, and Rose for Carrick's overall profile suggests enough ability to hit the board even if the top two run as expected.