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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — October 19, 2026

October 19, 20269 racesAll Fort Erie picks

Fort Erie wraps up a Monday card under ideal conditions — clear skies, 60 degrees, and a track that should be playing true. Nine races on the board today, all but one on the dirt, which means speed figures and pace scenarios are going to drive the conversation from gate to wire.

The card leans heavily claiming, with a Maiden Special Weight and an Allowance sprinkled in to add a little extra intrigue. Short fields, sharp horses, and clean weather? That's a recipe for a productive afternoon at the rail — or on your couch with TrackWiz open.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short field of five goes 6 furlongs on the dirt in this opener, and there's a clear class standout at the top — though the morning line suggests the market already knows it.

win5Daddy Send MoneyML 9/5

Daddy Send Money draws our top TrackWiz rating of 88.83 in this field, a significant gap over the 77.89 posted by the second-best horse. Trainer Sharon Ceccato sends this one out with Juan Crawford in the irons, a pairing worth watching. At 9/5 on the morning line, the public is on board, but the rating separation here is real enough to justify the short price. The 55 average speed figure matches the top of the field and the 9% career win rate is solid for this level.

place3Golden TestML 2/1

Golden Test (3) is the logical backup with a TrackWiz rating of 77.89 and a 10% career win rate — best in the field on that measure. Trainer Anthony Adamo has Michael David up, and the 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate respect. If the favorite has any trouble at the break, Golden Test has the profile to capitalize.

show2Lemon TwistML 3/1

Lemon Twist (2) rounds out our exotic play at 3/1 on the morning line with a solid 66.47 rating. The 55 average speed matches the top performers, and for exacta and trifecta construction, Lemon Twist offers a fair price for a horse that figures to be in the mix late.

Race 2

4:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers at 6 furlongs on the dirt — the whole field is looking for that elusive first win, but two horses stand well above the rest on our ratings.

win1Imperial WarML 2/1

Imperial War (1) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 in what shapes up as a two-horse race at the top. Sofia Vives gets the call for trainer Jeff Voyce, and with a 53 average speed figure, this one has the tools to wire the field from the rail. The morning line of 2/1 is fair for a maiden that clearly profiles ahead of the pack here.

place3Woodglen CourtML 9/5

Woodglen Court (3) is right there with an 82.78 rating and sits at 9/5 on the morning line — actually the tepid morning-line favorite. Edgar Zenteno takes the mount for trainer William G. McMahon, and the 52 average speed is competitive. If Imperial War doesn't fire off the front, Woodglen Court has the ceiling to pick up the pieces.

show2Proudly CanadianML 3/1

Proudly Canadian (2) checks in at 62.39 on our ratings, a notable drop from the top two but still comfortably ahead of the rest of the field. Christoff Douglas rides for Allistair Sherman at a 3/1 price that offers some cushion in exotic tickets. For trifecta players, this one makes sense as the third wheel in a top-heavy race.

Race 3

5:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Stretch it out to a mile and 70 yards on the dirt and the pace scenario opens up — two horses with strong ratings sit behind a few plodders, which could set up a late-running scenario worth watching.

win4ClarayouthebestML 5/2

Clarayouthebest (4) leads our TrackWiz analysis with an 87.81 rating and a standout 15% career win rate. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin picks up the mount for trainer Joseph Humber, and at 5/2 on the morning line this horse offers fair value given the rating advantage. The 53 average speed is right at the top of the field, and the extra distance should suit a horse with this kind of back class.

place5Proud MischiefML 9/2

Proud Mischief (5) is the most compelling backup in the field — a 25% career win rate is the best of any horse on today's card and speaks to a horse that knows how to finish. The 82.65 TrackWiz rating is close enough to the top pick to make this one a genuine threat, and at 9/2 on the morning line there's some value in the place slot. Helen Marie Vanek has the mount for trainer Michael J. Blake.

show2MoventothecountryML 4/1

Moventothecountry (2) brings a 72.69 rating and a 14% career win rate, tying That Girl Artemus on win percentage but rating well above her. Natalie Frost rides for Richard M. Davis, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this one is worth including in trifecta tickets as a competent deep closer at the longer distance.

The first three races on today's card are fully unlocked for all TrackWiz readers, and they cover a nice slice of what Fort Erie has to offer. Daddy Send Money (9/5 morning line, 88.83 TrackWiz rating) opens the show in a 6-furlong claiming sprint — our strongest rating on the free card and a horse that fits the conditions cleanly. Imperial War (2/1, 88.54) follows in the Maiden Claiming nightcap at the same distance, another dirt sprinter worth your attention. Then Race 3 stretches out to a mile and 70 yards with Clarayouthebest (5/2, 87.81) — a different test, but the rating holds up and the added ground could be the key angle here.

One thread connecting all three free picks: they're all on a fast, dry Fort Erie dirt strip on a clear-sky afternoon. No excuses for any of them. If the track is playing fair early, pace-pressers who can sustain their run to the wire look like the profile to beat across this stretch of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

The card shifts to turf for this 7-furlong claiming affair, and a pair of horses stand well clear of a muddled mid-card — the value question is whether the morning-line underdog can outrun his odds.

win5Before and AfterML 4/1

Before and After (5) is our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 and a jaw-dropping 33% career win rate — by far the best win percentage in today's entire nine-race card. Pierre Mailhot rides for trainer Alysha Robillard, and on turf, a horse this accustomed to winning is hard to ignore. The 4/1 morning line actually gives you a touch of value given the raw numbers here.

place6TanistML 5/2

Tanist (6) is a stout alternative at 80.92 on our ratings and sits as the 5/2 morning-line second choice. Jeffrey Ian Alderson picks up the mount for trainer Daniel Wills, and the 14% career win rate on a turf sprint is respectable. This is a horse that should be involved throughout and makes for a natural place pick beneath our top selection.

show3DiomedesML 2/1

Diomedes (3) rates at 60.53 and is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 — a price that feels a bit compressed given the rating gap to our top two. Juan Crawford rides for Kevin Buttigieg, and while the 6% career win rate is modest, the market price warrants inclusion in the show position for trifecta construction.

Race 5

6:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs on the dirt, and a horse sitting at the top of our ratings is flying a bit under the public radar — that's the kind of setup worth circling on any race card.

win1Silent MortML 7/2

Silent Mort (1) tops this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate, pairing the best rating in the race with the highest average speed figure at 55. Kirk Johnson takes the mount for trainer Michael V. Cohen, who also has Sassagoula River in here — but Silent Mort is clearly the stable's first string. At 7/2 on the morning line, the price is friendlier than you might expect for a horse with this profile.

place2Arami's SpeighsterML 3/1

Arami's Speighster (2) posts a 74.81 rating and sits at 3/1 on the morning line for trainer Daniel Wills. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin gets the call, and while the career win rate isn't a factor to cite here, the rating puts this one comfortably in the second-tier range. A speed-figure step forward could make this one very competitive for a piece.

show6Serious GreenML 2/1

Serious Green (6) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 despite a 66.66 rating — meaning the market is higher on this horse than our numbers suggest. Christoff Douglas rides for Cory B. Machesney, and the 4% career win rate is the lowest of any show pick we're using today. We include it here strictly for exotic coverage given the short price, but Silent Mort is the stronger opinion in this spot.

Race 6

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint at 5½ furlongs brings out a tricky field where the morning-line favorite doesn't match up with our top-rated horse — that kind of divergence is exactly where value hides.

win6No MistakeML 6/1

No Mistake (6) is our top pick with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the best in this field — yet the morning line has this one at 6/1, well off the 2/1 chalked up for You Signed It. Juan Crawford has the mount for trainer Joseph Humber, who also conditions Melody Maker in this race. The 53 average speed figure is competitive, and in a maiden field where our model sees a clear separation at the top, this 6/1 price looks genuinely attractive.

place4You Signed ItML 2/1

You Signed It (4) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and checks in with a 71.67 rating and a solid 55 average speed figure. Kirk Johnson rides for Julie Mathes, and this is a horse the market clearly respects. While our model likes No Mistake more, You Signed It's speed numbers make it dangerous, and it belongs in the exacta.

show2Melody MakerML 5/1

Melody Maker (2) rates at 66.73 — third-best in the field — and comes in at 5/1 on the morning line. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin handles the mount for trainer Joseph Humber, giving Humber two runners in the race. The 53 average speed is workable, and at 5/1 this one offers decent exotic value as the third wheel in what looks like a top-heavy race.

Race 7

7:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Seven runners go 5½ furlongs on the dirt in a claiming sprint with a clear 1-2 punch at the top — though the closeness of those ratings makes the pace setup crucial for handicappers.

win1Silent PassionML 5/2

Silent Passion (1) leads all runners with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate — a horse who converts at a high clip. Helen Marie Vanek gets the assignment for trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr., and the 55 average speed figure sits at the top of the field. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's not much overlay here, but the raw numbers back up the short price.

place3Getting AheadML 4/1

Getting Ahead (3) is right on Silent Passion's heels with an 84.31 rating, a 16% career win rate, and a matching 55 average speed figure. Juan Crawford rides for trainer Jeff Voyce, and the 4/1 morning line is more appealing than the favorite's price for those looking for a little more return. This is a legitimate win threat dressed up as a place pick.

show4Crumlin TroubleML 3/1

Crumlin Trouble (4) posts a 73.62 rating and a 16% career win rate that ties Getting Ahead on that metric. Dane Nelson rides for Kenneth R. Smith at 3/1 on the morning line, which is fair but not a screaming value. The 53 average speed trails the top two, making a clean third the likely ceiling — but in a seven-horse field that's exactly what trifecta builders are looking for.

Race 8

7:31 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 5½ furlongs on the dirt features a step up in conditions from the claiming races, and two horses near the top of our ratings share that edge with very different morning-line prices.

win6Blue's MommyML 7/2

Blue's Mommy (6) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and draws in at 7/2 on the morning line — a price that looks workable for our top-rated horse in an allowance field. Edgar Zenteno takes the mount for trainer John Simms, and the 53 average speed is competitive at this level. The 6% career win rate is modest, but in an allowance spot where the field is tighter, raw rating edge is what we lean on.

place4Blazing DamselML 3/1

Blazing Damsel (4) is the standout backup with an 82.16 rating and a 25% career win rate — the best win conversion in this field by a comfortable margin. Juan Crawford rides for Joan M. Mitchell at 3/1 on the morning line. That win percentage tells you this is a horse that knows how to get to the wire first, and the place spot is very much in play.

show5Ez Tree AtesML 2/1

Ez Tree Ates (5) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 despite a 64.64 rating that puts it third in our model. Alexis Sanchez rides for Steven Cathcart, and the 52 average speed is the lowest among our top three. We're using this one in the show slot primarily as market coverage — when a horse is the public choice, it needs to be in your exotics even if our numbers don't fully agree.

Race 9

7:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The card closes with a seven-horse claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs, and our top selection is sitting at 6/1 on the morning line despite owning the best TrackWiz rating in the field — that's the definition of a value play.

win5Jinx MeML 6/1

Jinx Me (5) carries an 82.71 TrackWiz rating into this race — the top mark in the field — yet the morning line lists this one at 6/1, suggesting the public hasn't caught up to our numbers. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin rides for trainer Joseph Humber, a barn that's been active throughout this card. The 53 average speed is solid, and a 13% career win rate confirms this is a horse capable of getting the job done.

place2Mo ArgentoML 5/2

Mo Argento (2) brings a 76.67 rating and a field-best 30% career win rate — that's a horse that converts nearly a third of its starts, which is elite at this level. Helen Marie Vanek rides for Nick Guy Mileni, Jr., and the 55 average speed figure matches the highest in the race. The 5/2 morning line reflects market respect, and this one has a strong case to run first or second.

show3Shes Hot to TrotML 9/2

Shes Hot to Trot (3) rates at 73.76 with a 55 average speed figure that ties Mo Argento at the top on that metric. Steve Jadoo picks up the mount for trainer Julie Mathes, and the 9/2 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse that speed-figures to be involved early in a 5½-furlong sprint. A 10% career win rate is workable, and this one rounds out a logical trifecta underneath.

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Fort Erie is giving us a clean, fast-track Monday with a full nine-race card to work through. Daddy Send Money is the headline play on the free side, but the value and the complexity both pick up in the premium races. Subscribers get the complete breakdown — pace projections, exotic strategy, and every contender ranked. Head to TrackWiz pricing to unlock the full card before post time.

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