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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — October 13, 2026
Fort Erie closes out its Tuesday card with seven races under comfortable, partly cloudy skies and a mild 73°F — ideal conditions for both the dirt and turf surfaces. With no rain in the picture, expect a consistent playing field all afternoon, which is good news for horses whose form lines translate cleanly to today's conditions.
The card mixes Maiden Claiming and Maiden Special Weight openers with a stretch of Claiming races and an Allowance spot on the turf in Race 3. It's not a blockbuster day on paper, but there's genuine betting interest scattered throughout — including a couple of morning-line overlays that TrackWiz analysis has flagged as strong value.
Seven races, two surfaces, and some intriguing pace setups in the backend of the card. Let's get into it.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
A maiden claimer where the morning line favorite and the TrackWiz top-rated horse tell two very different stories — the overlay angle is real here, and the pace looks like it could set up for a closer.
Seattle Rising lands at the top of our ratings with an 87.08 — that's a significant edge over this field, where the next-closest is Codicia Por Vida at 72.48. Trainer Darren C. Glennon sends this one out at 3/1 on the morning line, making it a solid overlay against the 7/5 morning line chalk. In a maiden field where no horse has broken their maiden yet, the rating gap alone is enough to make Seattle Rising our top selection. Jockey Harriston Lewis gets the call, and the one-mile-plus route suits horses with a more measured style.
Codicia Por Vida has the best average speed figure in the field at 53 and carries the buzz of the morning line favorite at 7/5. Trainer Devon Boreland keeps this one in maiden claiming company, which is a sign of patience rather than desperation. Even if Seattle Rising gets the win, Codicia Por Vida looks too fast to miss the board entirely.
Rumblelina at 6/1 morning line is a sneaky inclusion here, and with a TrackWiz rating of 51.67, sits third among this short field. In a five-horse maiden claimer, show slots can come cheap, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin is an active rider who knows this circuit. If the pace collapses up front, closers have a path, and Rumblelina could be that horse.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
A five-horse maiden special weight sprint on dirt where the morning line and our ratings are largely in agreement — but trainer connections tell an interesting subplot worth watching.
Champagne Curls tops the TrackWiz ratings at 59.0 and is also the morning line favorite at 8/5, which is a fairly rare alignment in maiden company. Trainer Michaela Neubauer puts Jeffrey Ian Alderson in the irons, a solid local combination. With three horses in this field lacking any recorded average speed figure, Champagne Curls' advantage is harder to quantify but the rating edge is real — in a short sprint like 5 furlongs, breaking well and getting position early is everything, and this is our top selection.
Danish Authority is the only other horse in the race with an actual average speed figure on record — 53 — which gives trainer Joseph Humber's runner a concrete edge over the first-timers. Luis Contreras picks up the mount, and he's one of the more accomplished jockeys on the Fort Erie circuit. At 5/2, Danish Authority should be live for the place at minimum.
Leona's Voyce at 7/2 is trained by Jeff Voyce — yes, the same surname as the horse, which often signals an owner-trainer deeply invested in this runner's development. Juan Crawford rides, and while there's no average speed figure to lean on, the TrackWiz rating of 55.83 is third-best in the field. In a short-field maiden sprint, three horses hitting the board is the norm, and Leona's Voyce offers fair value for exotic coverage.
Race 3
Allowance · 7 fur · Turf
This allowance turf route has a clear ratings standout going against a legitimate morning line favorite — pace could be the deciding factor over seven furlongs of grass.
Souper Effect is our top-rated horse in this race with an 87.08 TrackWiz score, yet goes postward at 3/1 on the morning line — excellent value relative to his form. His 20% career win rate is tied for best in the field, and his average speed figure of 54 is on par with the top horses here. Trainer Anthony Adamo puts David Moran aboard, and on a 7-furlong turf route, class and consistency tend to shine. This looks like a horse being underestimated by the morning line.
Switchin' to Glide rates out second in this field at 80.01 and also posts a 54 average speed, matching the top tier on raw numbers. Trainer Sharon Ceccato sends this one out at 7/2, and Juan Crawford takes the mount — a savvy combination on the Fort Erie turf. With a 14% career win rate, this horse consistently hits the board and is a strong place bet.
Back River at 8/1 is the longshot value piece in the exotics here. A 16% career win rate is solid, the average speed of 54 matches the class, and Sofia Vives is a capable rider who can navigate turf traffic. Trainer Desmond Maynard's runner isn't getting much respect from oddsmakers, which makes the show slot an attractive inclusion in trifecta coverage.
The first three races are open to all readers, and TrackWiz analysis likes what it sees. Seattle Rising (R1, 3/1 ML) earns the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 87.08 — impressive for a Maiden Claimer going a route of ground. Route races on dirt tend to reward horses with tactical speed and stamina, and Seattle Rising fits that profile. Over on the turf in Race 3, Souper Effect (3/1 ML) matches that same 87.08 rating in an Allowance spot — a class level where consistent form and surface affinity matter most, and our models suggest the morning line is being generous here.
Race 2 is the wild card: a 5-furlong Maiden Special Weight sprint where Champagne Curls comes in as the 8/5 favorite with a TrackWiz rating of 59 — noticeably lower than the other free-race selections. MSW sprints for maidens can be chaotic, and the lower confidence score reflects that. Champagne Curls is still the top choice, but this is a race where the pace scenario could scramble things quickly. Tread carefully with your ticket size.
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Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line for the day: Seattle Rising and Souper Effect are the standout free-race plays, and Moventothecountry is the name to watch when the premium races kick in. The turf is expected to be in great shape under the partly cloudy skies, which bodes well for Race 3 and Race 7. Conditions are cooperative, the pace setups are interesting, and there's legitimate value to be found if you're willing to dig in. Full card analysis — including exotic strategies and pace projections — is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck at the windows.