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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — September 29, 2026

September 29, 20267 racesAll Fort Erie picks

Fort Erie is rolling out a seven-race card on Tuesday, September 29, and conditions couldn't be much more cooperative. Partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 67°F means both the turf courses and the dirt strip should be playing fair — no excuses for anybody today.

The card is a nice mix of claiming action and a couple of spots where better horses step in, including an allowance mile on the turf in Race 4 that figures to be the most competitive event of the afternoon. Three of today's seven races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, with our full-card premium breakdown locked and loaded for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A two-horse battle at the top of the TrackWiz ratings sets up Race 1 on the turf mile, with Onenightstandards and Silent Miracle separating themselves from the field — but Delian League offers sneaky value beneath them.

win1OnenightstandardsML 9/5

Onenightstandards carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83, and Juan Crawford gets the call from the rail — a pilot who knows this track well. The 9/5 morning line reflects public respect, but don't let that scare you off; this figure advantage is real and significant over a claiming field at one mile on the turf. The 13% career win rate is modest, but figure-based edges in grass routes often play out regardless of raw win percentage.

place3Silent MiracleML 9/2

Silent Miracle is the legitimate threat to the top pick, posting a 83.75 TrackWiz rating and the best career win percentage of the top horses at 21%. Ismael Eluid Mosqueira picks up the mount, and a 9/2 morning line on a horse with this kind of figure and win rate in a six-horse field is exactly the place-bet overlay TrackWiz analysis targets.

show6Delian LeagueML 5/1

Delian League at 5/1 brings an 18% career win rate and a 62.05 rating — good enough to hit the board in a field where the top two are clearly separated from the rest. Prayven Badrie is comfortable at Fort Erie, and in turf route races where pace can get messy in the stretch, closers like Delian League are prime show-ticket material.

Race 2

4:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Boston Bay looks like the class of this dirt sprint at 6½ furlongs, but Star Scholar's figures make this a potential match race — pace could be the deciding factor between two horses going different directions on the form cycle.

win4Boston BayML 2/1

Boston Bay tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, drawn in the four hole with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin aboard — a jockey who knows how to ride dirt sprints aggressively. The 2/1 morning line is fair for the top-rated horse, and while the 8% career win rate gives some pause, this is a claiming level where quality of recent form matters more than lifetime numbers. Trainer Joseph Humber also saddles Bill Needle in this race, which signals stable confidence — connections don't double-barrel entries without reason.

place1Star ScholarML 5/2

Star Scholar at 5/2 is the clear second choice in the TrackWiz model with a 76.74 rating, and Juan Crawford — who rides Race 1 and Race 3 as well — lands on this one. The 7% career win rate is low, but this type of horse often fires place finishes consistently at a price, and in a five-horse field there's nowhere to hide.

show5GlobetrottingML 3/1

Globetrotting checks in at 57.31 on the TrackWiz scale with a solid 15% career win rate and a 3/1 morning line that makes the show ticket appealing for exacta and trifecta construction. Leo Salles gets the mount, and with matching 54 average speed figures alongside Boston Bay and Bill Needle, a pace duel up front could play right into this horse's hands for a piece.

Race 3

5:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Silent Passion looks like the horse to beat in this short dirt sprint, but trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. saddles two of the top three contenders — and it's his other horse, Mo Argento, that makes handicapping this race genuinely tricky.

win2Silent PassionML 9/5

Silent Passion posts an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in this field — and a 22% career win rate that stands out in a five-horse claiming field. Helen Marie Vanek takes the mount, and this horse's 55 average speed figure ties for the field's best alongside Mo Argento and Rifling. At 9/5 on the morning line, this is a deserving favorite, and the combination of figure, win rate, and sharp speed make Silent Passion the most reliable play on the card in Race 3.

place5RiflingML 3/1

Rifling is the TrackWiz value play here at 3/1, boasting a 70.53 rating and a 15% career win rate with matching 55 average speed. Luis R. Reyes picks up the mount for trainer Michael J. Blake, and in a sprint where pace can compress the field quickly, a horse with this figure level is a strong place-ticket inclusion — especially at a price.

show3Mo ArgentoML 2/1

Mo Argento at 2/1 is trained by the same Nick Guy Mileni Jr. barn that saddles Silent Passion, which means connections have the race covered two ways. The 25% career win rate is the highest in the field and shouldn't be ignored — this horse clearly knows how to win. A 49.06 TrackWiz rating puts Mo Argento third in the model, making the show slot a logical landing spot in a race where stablemate dynamics could dictate traffic decisions.

Our three free selections today hit both surfaces and a range of distances, giving casual bettors a solid cross-section of the card to work with. On the turf, Onenightstandards draws our attention in the opening mile — a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 at 9/5 on the morning line is the kind of overlay you want to get your day started right. Over on the dirt, Boston Bay (6½ furlongs, Race 2) and Silent Passion (5½ furlongs, Race 3) both earn identical 88.83-plus ratings and carry morning lines that suggest the market hasn't fully caught up to what our model sees.

One thing to watch across the free races: with the temperature in the mid-60s and no rain in the recent picture, the dirt should be fast and true, which historically favors horses with early tactical speed at this track. Keep that pace angle in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:39 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Go Go Alexander looks like a clear class standout in this allowance turf mile, but the 8/5 price tag means smart bettors need to identify the right exotics underneath — Ilikeitwhenitsnows and Back River both offer value.

win2Go Go AlexanderML 8/5

Go Go Alexander posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 89.12 and an impressive 25% career win rate — this horse flat-out wins at a higher clip than anyone in the field. Juan Crawford, who's had a busy book all day, gets the mount for trainer Sharon Ceccato, and the 8/5 morning line is fair for a horse this far clear of the competition on figures. In allowance company on the turf at one mile, Go Go Alexander's combination of rating, speed, and win percentage is hard to argue against.

place4IlikeitwhenitsnowsML 5/2

Ilikeitwhenitsnows is the most compelling underneath horse here, sporting a 22% career win rate that ranks second in the field and a 60.06 TrackWiz rating. Leo Salles climbs aboard for trainer Doug Carter, and this is a horse that knows how to hit the board — the 5/2 morning line makes the place ticket worth a look as a standalone play rather than just an exotic component.

show1Back RiverML 6/1

Back River at 6/1 is the show-price value in this seven-horse field with a 57.19 TrackWiz rating and a respectable 16% career win rate. Desmond Maynard sends this one out with Desean Bynoe in the saddle, and in a one-mile turf race with pace likely to stack up, drawing the rail can be an asset for a horse that rates near the top of the second tier. At 6/1, the show ticket here is an excellent bang-for-buck inclusion in trifecta plays.

Race 5

6:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Let's Go Liam appears to be the standout in this six-furlong dirt claiming sprint, but Sassagoula River and Arami's Speighster make the race competitive enough that pace scenario will matter — don't sleep on a potential pace duel shaping the stretch.

win6Let's Go LiamML 8/5

Let's Go Liam is the TrackWiz top choice at 89.12 with the highest average speed figure in the field at 55 — a clear advantage in a dirt sprint. Helen Marie Vanek, fresh off riding Silent Passion in Race 3, picks up this mount for Nick Guy Mileni Jr., who has shown real stable form today. The 4% career win rate is the one yellow flag here, but at the claiming level, a figure edge this significant over a six-horse field often speaks louder than win percentage history.

place4Sassagoula RiverML 3/1

Sassagoula River at 3/1 has a 82.82 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate, with Luis Contreras — one of the more accomplished jockeys on today's card — in the irons. Trainer Michael V. Cohen places this horse in a spot where the pace scenario could set up perfectly: if Let's Go Liam controls the tempo, Sassagoula River's rating suggests it has enough to be right there at the wire.

show1Arami's SpeighsterML 5/2

Arami's Speighster brings a 79.67 TrackWiz rating and a 5/2 morning line for trainer Daniel Wills, with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin getting the mount. The career win percentage is listed at zero, but the figures tell a different story — this horse rates third in the model and could easily outrun that number. In a six-furlong sprint, Arami's Speighster has enough raw speed to land in the money even if the win is elusive.

Race 6

6:35 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Dreaming of Hope looks like a morning-line standout in this five-furlong starter optional claiming sprint, boasting a field-best 30% career win rate — but Really Thirsty and Because make this a three-way battle worth spreading in exotics.

win1Dreaming of HopeML 7/5

Dreaming of Hope tops the TrackWiz model at 89.42 — the highest single-race rating on today's entire card — and backs it up with a 30% career win rate that's genuinely elite at the claiming level. Sofia Vives gets the mount for trainer Anthony Adamo, and a 55 average speed figure ties for the field's best. The 7/5 morning line will compress the win value, but in a five-horse field this dominant, the horse is still the right bet — structure your tickets around it rather than against it.

place4Really ThirstyML 3/1

Really Thirsty at 3/1 is the most interesting horse in this race outside the favorite, carrying a 81.46 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — both genuinely impressive marks. Xarel Forde takes the mount for Julie Mathes, and this horse's 55 average speed figure matches the top two in the field. If Dreaming of Hope has any trouble from the inside, Really Thirsty has the figures and the win rate to pounce.

show2BecauseML 8/5

Because at 8/5 is a curious morning-line price — shorter than Really Thirsty despite a lower TrackWiz rating (72.25 vs. 81.46). That said, a 20% career win rate and identical 55 average speed to the top two makes Because a legitimate board threat. Alexis Sanchez rides for Steven Cathcart, and this horse's consistency in similar sprint conditions makes it a sound show-ticket anchor in trifecta structures.

Race 7

7:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Alta Calibre stands out as the class of this seven-furlong turf claiming field, but the race shape is intriguing — Dreams and Schemes is the morning-line favorite and could set the pace, potentially setting it up perfectly for Alta Calibre's closer profile.

win3Alta CalibreML 5/2

Alta Calibre carries an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — easily the highest in this eight-horse field — and backs it up with a 23% career win rate that speaks to genuine talent. Luis Contreras, who also rode Sassagoula River in Race 5, takes this plum assignment for trainer Ken Albu. At 5/2, the price is fair given the figure edge, and on a seven-furlong turf race where pace tends to honest up in the final furlong, Alta Calibre's combination of rating and win rate makes this horse the most dependable bet of the late card.

place6Knotty and NiceML 7/2

Knotty and Nice at 7/2 is a legitimate second-choice play — 74.4 TrackWiz rating, a 17% career win rate, and Kirk Johnson in the saddle. Trainer Julie Mathes also runs Coach Caley in this race, suggesting she has good form in the barn right now. The 54 average speed figure is the best in the field, which means if this horse gets comfortable rhythm on the turf, it has the raw mechanics to close the gap on Alta Calibre.

show8Hot OmeletML 4/1

Hot Omelet brings something genuinely eye-catching to the table: a 28% career win rate — the highest in this field — paired with a 66.11 TrackWiz rating at 4/1 on the morning line. Michael David gets the mount for Joshua Robillard, and horses with that kind of win percentage in their past tend to find a way to hit the board even when they're not at their peak. In an eight-horse turf sprint, Hot Omelet is a must-use in trifecta plays.

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A clean day at Fort Erie with solid footing, three strong free plays headlined by Onenightstandards and Silent Passion, and Dreaming of Hope shaping up as our marquee selection of the card in Race 6. If you want the full breakdown — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and every angle on Races 4 through 7 — it's all available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there, and let's have a winning Tuesday.

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