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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — September 28, 2026
Fort Erie is open for business on Monday, September 28, and we've got a tight six-race card to dig into under cloudy skies and a comfortable 64°F. The cool, overcast conditions are worth noting — turf racing in particular can play differently when moisture stays in the air, so keep an eye on how the grass courses are riding as early races go off.
Today's card mixes claiming races, a maiden special weight, and a pair of turf routes that should produce some interesting pace scenarios. It's a compact slate, which actually makes it a great opportunity to focus your attention and find spots where the field is beatable.
Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and three are reserved for subscribers with full premium access. Let's set the table.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
One horse towers above the field on the TrackWiz ratings in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, but three horses are tightly bunched behind — making the exacta order the real puzzle.
Getting Ahead (5) is the standout of the day in the opener, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 that is nearly 40 points clear of the next-best horse in the field. That kind of rating separation in a claiming sprint is unusual and meaningful — it suggests this horse's recent form is operating at a genuinely different level. With the top average speed figure in the race at 55 and jockey Michael David up for trainer Erin H. Rickman, this looks like a horse pointed right at this spot. Mornings-line favorite at 2/1 feels accurate; don't expect value, but do expect contention.
Easter Sunday Girl (1) is the best of the tightly bunched trio sitting between ratings of 46 and 47, giving her a slight edge for the place hole. Her 12% career win rate is modest but her 6/1 morning line offers place value if she can run her typical race behind a dominant winner. Trainer Sharon Ceccato keeps her competitive in this company.
Shamra (4) holds a razor-thin rating edge over Easter Sunday Girl — 46.82 vs. 47.18 — which is essentially a coin flip, but her 18% career win percentage makes her the more proven finisher of the two. At 3/1 on the morning line she's likely to be well-supported, and in exotics she makes a solid bottom slot given how consistently she seems to hit the board.
Race 2
Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt
Steven Cathcart saddles two horses in this 5-furlong dirt claimer and his second entry tops the TrackWiz ratings — a cozy spot that creates a potential pace-forcing setup with a clear class separator on paper.
Fredericka's Rose (5) leads the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and the highest career win percentage in the race at 12%, suggesting she converts when conditions suit. Jockey Ismael Eluid Mosqueira partners with trainer Steven Cathcart, who also has Maritude entered — barn confidence in this horse appears high if she's the primary target. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value here for a horse whose numbers say she should be closer to even money.
Maritude (3) is Cathcart's other runner and checks in at 80.04 on the TrackWiz scale, which is strong for this field. Drawn in the three-hole with Juan Crawford, she could stalk any pace that develops and use a late kick over this sprint distance. In trainer/jockey combos where a barn doubles up, the second horse can offer sneaky value as bettors split action between the two.
Jinx Me (2) sits at 77.95 on the TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and while her 7% career win rate is modest, she's proven capable of hitting the board in similar spots. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin gets the call for trainer Joseph Humber, and at 2/1 morning-line she'll draw plenty of action. She's a solid show anchor in multi-leg tickets.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf
A wide-open 7-furlong turf maiden claimer where every horse in the field is still looking for that first career win — three horses are separated by less than a single rating point at the top, making this a genuine three-way toss.
Whiskytangodisco (6) edges out a competitive top group with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating, the best in this nine-horse maiden field. Pierre Mailhot is aboard for trainer S. Tony Bennett, and the 9/2 morning line represents fair value given how tight the ratings are. In maiden turf sprints with a compressed top group, the horse with the slightest edge on overall form rating often finds a way — and that's Whiskytangodisco today.
Woodglen Court (7) is separated from the top pick by less than a single rating point at 83.97, making him a near-coin-flip for the top spot. Edgar Zenteno rides for trainer William G. McMahon, and the 3/1 morning line means he'll be well-supported. In a race this tight at the top, keying him underneath in exactas makes plenty of sense.
Imperial War (5) rounds out the top three with an 81.51 TrackWiz rating and lines up at 7/2 on the morning line — just outside the top pair but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Jeff Voyce sends him out with Ismael Eluid Mosqueira, and on a seven-furlong turf course where pace can be tricky in maiden company, a horse with solid ratings who gets a clean trip can easily sneak into the placings.
Our three free races cover the early portion of the card and span two surfaces — Dirt in Races 1 and 2, and Turf in Race 3. Getting Ahead (2/1 morning line, TrackWiz rating 88.54) tops our analysis in Race 1 at 5½ furlongs on dirt and is the strongest-rated pick of the free selections. In Race 2 at 5 furlongs on dirt, Fredericka's Rose stands out at 5/1 on the morning line — that kind of overlay in a short-field claiming sprint is exactly the value angle we like to flag for you. Then Race 3 moves to the turf for a 7-furlong maiden claiming event, where Whiskytangodisco (9/2) earned a solid 84.9 rating in our model.
One thread connecting these three picks: all three figure to be forwardly placed or at least competitively positioned early, which matters on a compact card where pace can compress quickly. The dirt looks conventional today, and the turf in Race 3 gives maiden claimers a chance to find their footing on a different surface — always a useful angle when the morning line isn't fully pricing in the switch.
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A focused six-race card under cool, cloudy skies at Fort Erie — Getting Ahead leads the way in the free races, and Doadster is the name to circle when the card closes out on the turf in Race 6. For pace projections, exotic ticket structures, and the full breakdown on Races 4 through 6, grab a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck today — let's find some winners.