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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — October 20, 2026

October 20, 20269 racesAll Fort Erie picks

Fort Erie is putting on a full nine-race card this Tuesday afternoon, and the weather is about as good as it gets for late-October racing on the border — clear skies, 59°F, and no wind to speak of. That kind of dry, cool air tends to keep the dirt surface consistent all day, which is good news if you like betting pace scenarios and trusting your speed figures.

The card has real teeth. You've got two stakes races anchoring the back half — Races 6 and 8 — and a pair of turf miles mixed in to keep things interesting. From a handicapping standpoint, there's a nice blend of short sprints, two-turn routes, and surface switches that reward players who do their homework.

TrackWiz has analysis on all nine races today. Three are available free to every reader, with the full card — including both stakes races — unlocked for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight five-horse claiming sprint where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses carry a meaningful edge, but the morning line and our ratings tell slightly different stories — creating some interesting betting angles.

win3Legs Like FlatterML 3/1

Legs Like Flatter tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and owns the best career win percentage in the field at 29%, making her the clear data-driven selection. Trainer Sharon Ceccato saddles her here alongside stablemate Easter Sunday Girl, a sign of stable confidence in this one specifically. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair but not generous — she's a horse to beat, not a standout overlay.

place1Holiday RoseML 2/1

Holiday Rose opens as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with a solid 80.68 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. Luis Contreras, who gets around the Fort Erie circuit regularly, climbs aboard, and a 17% career win rate gives this one a respectable foundation. If Legs Like Flatter controls things up front, Holiday Rose has the profile to be closing into a spot.

show2Bashful DaisyML 5/2

Bashful Daisy brings the highest career win percentage among the three top picks at 26%, which is worth noting in a short claiming field. Trainer Steven Cathcart also has Sicilian Grandma in here, but Bashful Daisy is clearly the stable's better runner based on ratings. At 5/2, she's not a huge price, but her consistency angle makes her a reasonable exotics anchor for the show spot.

Race 2

4:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Sporty Angela and Silverdart look like a two-horse show at the top, but the massive gap in career win percentages between the top of this field and the bottom makes the pace scenario more predictable than usual.

win3Sporty AngelaML 9/5

Sporty Angela leads our TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and carries a 16% career win rate while posting the field's best average speed figure at 54. Trainer Steven Cathcart has her at a short 9/5 morning line, suggesting the barn expects a big effort — and our numbers agree. Juan Crawford, a busy rider at Fort Erie, gets the call and should have her ideally placed in a short 5.5-furlong dash.

place2SilverdartML 2/1

Silverdart is the clear second choice by our ratings (86.46) and on the morning line (2/1), and trainer Ken Albu knows how to place horses at this level. The concern is a career win rate of just 8%, meaning this horse has run a lot of seconds and thirds — which actually makes the place slot a natural landing spot. Kirk Johnson riding is a positive, and if Sporty Angela gets loose on the lead, Silverdart should be right there at the wire.

show1Rookie CourtML 3/1

Rookie Court draws the rail with Luis Contreras and pops a 71.85 TrackWiz rating, third-best in a five-horse field. The 2% career win rate is an eyebrow-raiser, but trainer Mike A. Dunslow placing this horse at 3/1 suggests there's a competitive effort expected. In small fields, horses with strong pace positions and capable pilots can sneak into show money even without an elite win record.

Race 3

5:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Cantucci dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this claiming sprint, but Souper Iconic lurks as a live second choice at a price — and the morning-line favorite Forest Flash is significantly underrated by our model, setting up a potential value play at the top.

win3CantucciML 2/1

Cantucci clocks in at 88.54 on the TrackWiz scale, easily the top number in this five-horse field, and a 15% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks. Trainer Alan F. Bird sends her out with Juan Crawford aboard — a familiar Fort Erie pairing — at a fair 2/1 morning line. At 5.5 furlongs on the dirt, horses that grade out this far ahead on our model tend to be good bets to hit the board at minimum.

place5Souper IconicML 5/1

Souper Iconic is the value play in this race, grading out at 83.16 — second best in the field — while sitting at 5/1 on the morning line. That's a meaningful gap between her implied probability and what our ratings suggest she should be priced at. Trainer Julie Mathes conditions her, and with a 15% career win rate matching Cantucci's, there's no reason she can't run the top selection down if the pace sets up right.

show1Sea to AirML 8/1

Sea to Air is an interesting include in the show spot, carrying a 21% career win rate — best in the field — despite opening at a generous 8/1 morning line. Trainer Jeff Voyce also has Forest Flash in this race, but our ratings actually prefer Sea to Air (55.44 vs. 43.83) by a meaningful margin. That trainer connection and the superior career win percentage make her a smart exotics add at a price that the morning line underestimates.

The first three races give us a lot to work with right out of the gate. All three are dirt sprints under claiming conditions, which means we're looking for horses that can control pace or capitalize on a hot early fraction — and on a firm, fast-ish surface today, front-runners deserve a close look. Legs Like Flatter opens the card at 3/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08, a solid number for a Race 1 claimer. Sporty Angela in Race 2 is our highest-confidence free pick of the trio — her 88.83 rating is the best of any free selection today, and the 9/5 morning line suggests the market agrees. Cantucci rounds out the free trio in Race 3 at 2/1, rated 88.54, making this stretch of the card a genuinely productive early sequence for exacta and daily double players.

The consistent surface and clear conditions today mean speed figures should translate cleanly — no slop, no wind bias muddying the picture. If you're playing the early Pick 3, Races 1–3 are where to start building your ticket.

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Race 4

5:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Ten horses go a mile on the turf in a wide-open claiming route where the top TrackWiz-rated horse opened with a surprisingly accessible morning line — and a pair of mid-priced horses provide solid underneath value.

win7Beautiful SkyML 7/2

Beautiful Sky sits atop our TrackWiz ratings for this race at 86.35 and owns a 19% career win rate in a field where most rivals are well below double digits. Pierre Mailhot guides her for trainer Steven Cathcart, a combination that is well-acquainted with the Fort Erie circuit. At 7/2, she's not a give-away, but the ratings edge over the rest of this field is meaningful enough to make her the clear TrackWiz top selection going a route on the turf.

place5Dreams and SchemesML 3/1

Dreams and Schemes checks in at 72.99 in our model and opens at 3/1 as the second choice on the morning line, making her a logical underneath horse. Trainer Michaela Neubauer has her with Jeffrey Ian Alderson up, and a 9% career win rate is modest — but in a ten-horse turf field, hitting the board is a realistic outcome for a horse this well-rated. She fits naturally in exactas and trifectas underneath Beautiful Sky.

show4Built DifferentML 8/1

Built Different at 8/1 is worth a long look for show in a deep field. A 70.46 TrackWiz rating puts her third among all starters, and trainer Alysha Robillard sends her out with Xarel Forde in the irons. With a 14% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53, she's competitive on paper — and at 8/1, she's one of the better-rated longshots in this field, making her an excellent inclusion in multi-leg exotics.

Race 5

6:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Fairway to Heaven is a clear class standout in this six-furlong claiming field — the question isn't whether she's the best horse, it's whether the morning-line favorite tag at 2/1 leaves enough meat on the bone for bettors.

win6Fairway to HeavenML 2/1

Fairway to Heaven tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 5 at 88.54 — the joint highest mark on today's full card — and Helen Marie Vanek gets the mount for trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr., who also saddles Bongino here. A 12% career win rate is modest, but the model rating separates her from this field by a wide margin. At 2/1, she's a short price, but the separation in class is real enough that she's the right horse to key in all your exotics.

place1Heat MerchantML 5/2

Heat Merchant opens as the morning-line co-favorite at 5/2, and our 67.81 rating confirms there's legitimate ability here. Kirk Johnson, one of the busier riders at Fort Erie, climbs aboard for trainer Julie Mathes — a well-connected barn on the circuit. A 13% career win rate fits the profile of a horse that hits the board regularly without necessarily winning, making the place spot his most natural landing zone.

show7Paperback HeroML 6/1

Paperback Hero at 6/1 brings a 19% career win rate to the table — tied for tops in this field — and trainer Roy George Agostino is no stranger to hitting with longer prices at Fort Erie. Michael David rides, and the 65.92 TrackWiz rating is third-best on the board. At 6/1, there's genuine value for show bettors and trifecta players looking for a mid-priced finisher to fill out tickets.

Race 6

6:35 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The stakes card's first marquee event features a massive favorite in Momaxie, whose 66% career win rate is almost otherworldly for this level — the real betting puzzle is identifying which rival can run her down or force a pace scenario that creates chaos.

win3MomaxieML 8/5

Momaxie is the most compelling horse on today's card. A 66% career win rate is simply extraordinary, and her 89.12 TrackWiz rating leads all stakes entrants. Trainer Steven Cathcart sends her out with Juan Crawford — the barn's go-to rider today — and the 8/5 morning line reflects her dominant status. At a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt, she has the profile and the numbers to handle the class step, and she's the rare short-priced horse you can confidently key on top in your exotics.

place2Justify PerfectionML 9/5

Justify Perfection is the logical second choice at 9/5, and a 33% career win rate is genuinely impressive in stakes company. Jeffrey Ian Alderson rides for trainer Michaela Neubauer, who has been active on the circuit, and a 67.03 TrackWiz rating gives this horse real credentials. If Momaxie takes back or runs into trouble, Justify Perfection has the form to capitalize — she's the most natural backup selection in the race.

show6LeziateML 6/1

Leziate offers the best value among the remainder at 6/1, and her 55 average speed figure is actually the best in the field — worth noting in a route race where late pace can matter. Trainer Desmond Maynard saddles her with Sofia Vives up, and a 13% career win rate is honest if unspectacular. In a stakes race where the top two may fight for supremacy, Leziate has the raw speed to grab a piece at a price that makes the show bet worthwhile.

Race 7

7:03 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A ten-horse turf mile in Starter Optional Claiming company is tough to untangle, but Little Red Domi stands well above the field on our ratings — and a double-digit morning-line longshot lurks as a legitimate value underneath.

win5Little Red DomiML 3/1

Little Red Domi rates as the class of this field at 85.74 on the TrackWiz model, well clear of the next-best horse. Juan Crawford is one of the more active jockeys at Fort Erie today, and trainer Beverley Chubb has her primed for this spot. A 25% career win rate — by far the best in this ten-horse field — reinforces the idea that this horse knows how to get to the wire in front, and 3/1 is an honest enough price for a dominant top selection.

place3OnenightstandardsML 10/1

Onenightstandards is the surprise of the race — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that makes her the clear second-best horse in the field, yet she opens at 10/1 on the morning line. That's a significant disconnect. Trainer Steven Cathcart has her with Ismael Eluid Mosqueira aboard, and a 13% career win rate is fine for the level. At 10/1 with a top-three rating in a big field, she's a prime candidate to outperform her odds — a value play underneath and worth a win flier as well.

show7Buttonwood TreeML 4/1

Buttonwood Tree at 4/1 brings a 20% career win rate and a 69.06 TrackWiz rating, good enough for third in this field. Sofia Vives takes the mount for trainer Anthony Adamo, and in a ten-horse turf route with a lot of variance, this horse has the profile to fill out a trifecta at a workable price. She won't be lighting up the exacta board, but as a show anchor with some upside, she's a solid exotics include.

Race 8

7:31 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The second stakes race of the day is a smaller, tighter field at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt — Scat Factor leads on our model, but If You Insist's strong career win percentage makes this a more competitive race than the morning line suggests.

win5Scat FactorML 5/2

Scat Factor tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 8 at 87.81, and trainer Alison Jennings sends her out at a fair 5/2 morning line with Alexis Sanchez in the irons. A 19% career win rate is respectable in stakes company, and the model separation between Scat Factor and the rest of the field is meaningful over a route distance where class tends to hold. She's the right horse to key in multi-race wagers on a stacked stakes afternoon.

place4If You InsistML 7/2

If You Insist brings a 26% career win rate — second only to Momaxie on the entire card today — and opens at 7/2 with Juan Crawford doing the riding for trainer Mark Fournier. A 68.95 TrackWiz rating puts her third in this field, but the win percentage suggests a horse that consistently runs to a high standard and rarely gets beaten far. She's built for the board, and the place bet here has genuine merit at that price.

show2Pat's GambleML 9/2

Pat's Gamble at 9/2 is the third pick, and trainer John Simms doubles up in this race with Kiddie Holiday. The stable appears to prefer Pat's Gamble based on the morning line, and a 64.98 TrackWiz rating is the third-best number here. Edgar Zenteno rides, and a 10% career win rate is the lone soft spot — but in a seven-horse stakes field, three and four finishes are very much in range for a horse graded this well.

Race 9

7:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The closing race is a full nine-horse claiming sprint at six furlongs, with Bingo's Grind carrying a dominant rating advantage — but Sunday's Well and Cooler Man offer legitimate value in the underneath spots for bettors willing to build tickets.

win2Bingo's GrindML 5/2

Bingo's Grind tops the TrackWiz model in the finale at 87.81 and posts a 55 average speed figure — best in this nine-horse field. Helen Marie Vanek gets the mount for trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr., who also had Fairway to Heaven earlier on the card. A 12% career win rate is modest for a horse this well-rated, but the model differential over the rest of the field is wide enough to make her a confident top selection in the closer.

place8Sunday's WellML 3/1

Sunday's Well opens at 3/1 with Luis Contreras — one of the circuit's top riders — and backs that favorability with a 23% career win rate, best in the field. Trainer Richard M. Davis places her well, and a 69.92 TrackWiz rating is a clear second in the field. If Bingo's Grind controls the pace, Sunday's Well has the profile to be finishing strongly in the place spot, and Contreras tends to get the most out of closers in six-furlong sprints.

show6Cooler ManML 5/1

Cooler Man at 5/1 rates third on our model at 62.43 and brings a workable 11% career win rate for trainer Roy George Agostino. Brian A. Cheyne rides, and in a nine-horse closer where pace can get complicated, a solidly-rated mid-price horse is exactly the type to grab show money. She's a natural trifecta fill at a price that won't crush the payoff.

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Fort Erie is putting on a genuinely solid Tuesday card, and between the dirt sprint trio early and a stakes double late, there's plenty of opportunity to cash. Start with Sporty Angela and Cantucci as your free anchors, and if you want the full picture — both stakes breakdowns, the turf mile analysis, and our exotic ticket builds — the complete card is waiting for subscribers. Head to TrackWiz Premium and don't miss the post time.

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