Free Ellis Park Picks & Predictions

Pretty Good (9) rates just a hair below Groundswell at 55.00 and comes out of the Bob Baffert barn with Florent Geroux up — a jockey-trainer pairing that consistently delivers in short-priced spots. The 4/1 morning line makes this one of the more logical alternatives for place-ticket coverage, particularly if the Casse runners split votes in the wagering pools.

Phantom Flash (3) checks in at a 53.33 TrackWiz rating under trainer Michael J. Maker, who has a strong regional record placing first-out juveniles in the money. At 5/1 on the morning line, this one offers real show-ticket value and belongs in any multi-horse exotics underneath the top pair.

I'mgunningforyou (5) rates at 54.17 for Brad Cox, who is among the elite debut trainers in the country. Mario Gutierrez inherits the mount, and at 9/2 on the line, this is the kind of Cox first-timer that needs to be on your radar — the barn rarely sends horses to the gate without a reason to believe.

Rye Warrior (10) is one of the few horses in the field that has shown us something, posting an avg speed figure of 54 while Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. gets the mount for Ian Wilkes — a solid regional pairing. At 6/1, this one rates as a legitimate show-ticket inclusion and a possible place threat if the top two scratch and run each other into the ground.

Step Forward (10) rates second in the field at 66.24 for Mark Casse, who doubles up in this race with two runners — always a barn to respect when they wheel out multiple entrants in the same field. The 17% career win rate is modest, but avg speed of 57 and a 3/1 morning line suggests the connections believe this one runs well in the place position at minimum. Axel Concepcion aboard gives this horse a strong tactical rider for the short turf sprint.

Mischievous Rogue (7) rates third at 63.11 with a 20% career win rate and an avg speed of 54, sitting a bit below the top pair on pure numbers but interesting at 9/2 on the morning line. Trainer Brittany Vanden Berg has built a reputation for placing horses in spots where they can compete, and Christopher Emigh is a savvy local rider who knows how to find daylight on a short turf course. Use this one underneath in exactas and trifectas.