Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 23, 2026

Turnbuckle opens at 12/1 but checks in third overall with a 67.36 TrackWiz rating — that's a significant gap between price and rating. Gabriel Saez rides for trainer Dana Hancock, and the 12/1 morning line feels like it underestimates this horse's ability to hit the board in a field where several rivals are well below 40 in the ratings.

Al Amjaad is listed at 5/1 and rates just below Turnbuckle at 65.42 with Adam Beschizza up for trainer Destin Heath. Both horses share the same average speed figure of 52, but Al Amjaad's morning line suggests slightly more public support — using both in show position on trifecta tickets covers a logical outcome.

Crystal Frost rates third overall at 70.55 and shares the same 6/1 morning line as our top pick — another Asmussen-barn parallel that makes the trifecta structure appealing. Trainer Roddina Barrett puts Edgar Morales up and the 54 average speed is at the top of the field, suggesting Crystal Frost can run with pace and still finish.

Watershed Moment comes in rated 70.12 — nearly identical to Crystal Frost — and Tyler Gaffalione climbs aboard as one of the meet's premier jockeys. The 2/1 morning line signals public expectation, and while that's the favorite role, a horse of this caliber in a maiden claimer landing Gaffalione makes complete sense as a show anchor.

Dixieland opens at 9/2 with trainer William Walden and Axel Concepcion up, sitting second in the TrackWiz ratings at 54.17. No average speed figure is listed, which adds some mystery, but the morning line suggests the connections are confident — in maiden specials, trainer confidence often means a horse has been working well.

Etna slots in third at 51.67 with Gabriel Saez aboard for trainer Bret Calhoun in a 12-horse field. The 56 average speed is second-best in the race and Saez is a skilled handler in long dirt routes — using Etna in the show spot of trifectas provides coverage while the top two duke it out.

Military Cruiser checks in at 79.49 with Cristian Torres aboard for trainer Nicholas Vaccarezza, and the 58 average speed is tied for tops in the field — that's the kind of raw pace that can sit just off a fast early tempo and swoop late in a 5.5-furlong turf dash. A 10% career win rate won't dazzle, but hitting the board in an allowance turf sprint with that speed figure is entirely realistic at 7/2.

Magic Brew is a fascinating piece at 6/1 with Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Gregory Foley. The 33% career win rate is the second-best in the field — only Icona in Race 8 tops it among today's runners — and while the TrackWiz rating of 67.07 is third, horses with a win rate that high tend to find ways to be competitive. Gaffalione riding a closer profile on turf at 5.5 furlongs means he'll be hunting trouble-free ground down the lane.

Signature draws program number 15 and opens at 9/2 with Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Brian Lynch — another respected conditioner who typically has horses primed on debut. At 54.17 on the TrackWiz scale, Signature rates second in the field, and Gaffalione's experience guiding first-time starters to the wire makes this a strong place contender in an unwieldy 16-horse field.

Hickory comes in third in the ratings at 53.33 for trainer Cherie DeVaux with Jaime Torres in the irons and a 54 average speed that matches the field median. At 5/1, Hickory offers a slightly longer price than the top two and slots neatly into trifecta structures as a horse with published speed who can hang around late in a mile maiden.

Icona opened at 10/1 but flashes a staggering 50% career win rate — second only to Lush Lips in this field — for trainer Brendan Walsh, giving the barn two horses in this spot. Ben Curtis gets the call and the 59.07 TrackWiz rating is well clear of the third-place horse. When a trainer splits runners between the heavy favorite and a double-digit morning line, the second string sometimes shows up with a big run, and Icona's win rate says this is no throwaway entry.

Totally Justified checks in at 49.18 on TrackWiz and opens at 10/1 for trainer Anna Meah with Joseph Bealmear up. A 12% career win rate and 54 average speed are modest, but in a stakes field where Lush Lips is expected to dominate and most of the rest are fighting for scraps, a horse at double digits with any legitimate form profile can be a low-cost trifecta anchor.

Quigley opens at 5/1 for trainer Brian Lynch with Mario Gutierrez aboard — Lynch is a conditioner who earns respect any time he wheels out a debut runner, and Gutierrez adds a skilled hand. The 53.33 TrackWiz rating puts Quigley just behind Ciarlatano, and at 5/1 the price is fair for a horse that rates this close to the top of a very competitive field.

Coldspring draws the rail at 6/1 for trainer Eddie Kenneally with Francisco Arrieta up, rating 51.67 alongside a cluster of horses at the same mark. No average speed is listed, which adds uncertainty, but Kenneally is a proven turf sprint trainer and a rail draw at 5.5 furlongs on the lawn means a ground-saving trip is very much in play — that alone makes Coldspring worth including in show and trifecta spots.