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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 23, 2026

August 23, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

Happy Sunday at Ellis Park, where clear skies and a comfortable 80°F greet us for a nine-race card that mixes turf tests with dirt sprints and routes. Conditions are about as good as it gets in Henderson — no rain in the forecast, which means that turf course should be playing firm and fast all afternoon.

We've got a little bit of everything today: maiden claimers looking to break their duck, an allowance sprint on the green stuff, and a legitimate marquee moment in Race 8, a Stakes event on the turf where the morning line favorite is drawing the kind of attention that makes value hunters nervous. That's the kind of card worth settling in for.

TrackWiz has broken down all nine races. Three are open to everyone — free analysis, no strings attached. The remaining six are part of our full premium card breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The top of the TrackWiz ratings are tightly bunched in this 1 1/16-mile turf claimer, with four horses separated by fewer than five points — expect a contested pace and a finish that could go several ways.

win7This Beau KnowsML 6/1

This Beau Knows earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.47 and gets a significant jockey upgrade landing Tyler Gaffalione in the irons — one of the sharpest turf riders in the region. Trainer Chris Block already has Executor in the race, and when a barn splits runners, it's worth noting which one gets the marquee pilot. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's real value here against a competitive but beatable field at 1 1/16 miles on the lawn.

place4Tiz FreedomML 5/2

Tiz Freedom posts the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 79.02 and shares the same average speed (54) as several rivals, but Gabriel Saez gives this horse a polished pilot who knows how to rate horses on turf. An 8% career win rate sounds modest, but in a field this competitive, hitting the board is a very realistic outcome.

show3ExecutorML 2/1

Executor checks in at 78.43 on TrackWiz and carries the second-lowest morning line in the race at 2/1, suggesting the public will key on this one. Florent Geroux is a savvy turf hand and the 2/1 price reflects genuine respect from the oddsmaker — plugging Executor into exactas and trifectas as a closer with upside makes plenty of sense.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint on dirt where first-time starters and lightly raced youngsters make handicapping feel like detective work — one horse separates itself significantly in the ratings.

win3McKinsenseML 6/1

McKinsense is the clear standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — more than 23 points clear of the next rival — and posts a field-best average speed figure of 55. Gabriel Saez gets the call for trainer Randy Morse, giving this horse a strong pilot at 6/1, which looks like legitimate overlay territory if the ratings hold. In maiden claiming sprints on dirt, a horse with this kind of separation in the data usually has the condition to cash.

place6Prince of LightML 5/1

Prince of Light opens at 5/1 and rates second overall in the TrackWiz model at 59.34 under Florent Geroux for trainer Michael Maker, who consistently sends sharp first-out types. The 54 average speed matches the field median, but Maker's barn has a strong reputation for having horses fit and ready when they show up.

show8WhateverML 8/1

Whatever draws out to the 8-hole at 8/1 and carries a 51.86 TrackWiz rating — right in the thick of the second tier of this field. Brody Martinez takes the mount for trainer Ralph Martinez, and at those odds this horse adds depth to exacta and trifecta tickets without breaking the bank.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Can't Stop Willis looms as a heavy favorite in this maiden claiming turf route, but a pair of overlays lurking in the double-digit morning lines could make the exotics very interesting.

win3Can't Stop WillisML 4/1

Can't Stop Willis dominates the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — the highest mark in the field by over 18 points — and Francisco Arrieta gets the leg up for trainer Cameron Milligan. The 4/1 morning line is relatively fair for a maiden claimer, and when a horse separates this clearly in our model, fading it requires a compelling reason that just isn't visible in this field. At 1 1/16 miles on turf, horses with clean numbers tend to get the job done.

place6TurnbuckleML 12/1

Turnbuckle opens at 12/1 but checks in third overall with a 67.36 TrackWiz rating — that's a significant gap between price and rating. Gabriel Saez rides for trainer Dana Hancock, and the 12/1 morning line feels like it underestimates this horse's ability to hit the board in a field where several rivals are well below 40 in the ratings.

show7Al AmjaadML 5/1

Al Amjaad is listed at 5/1 and rates just below Turnbuckle at 65.42 with Adam Beschizza up for trainer Destin Heath. Both horses share the same average speed figure of 52, but Al Amjaad's morning line suggests slightly more public support — using both in show position on trifecta tickets covers a logical outcome.

Our three free best bet races span both surfaces and span the day's early card, giving you a solid foundation before the bigger money races heat up. On the turf, This Beau Knows (Race 1, 6/1 morning line) kicks things off over a mile and a sixteenth — that distance and surface combo suits our top-rated contender nicely on a day when the turf should be playing true. Later, Can't Stop Willis (Race 3, 4/1) gets another turf route shot in the second maiden claimer of the afternoon, and our TrackWiz rating of 85.62 makes this one of the stronger free-race selections on the card.

Sandwiched between those turf routes is McKinsense (Race 2, 6/1) in a six-furlong dirt maiden claimer — a classic speed-figure angle on a surface that tends to reward pace-pressers at Ellis when the track is dry and fast. With clear skies baking the strip all day, don't expect any pace-compromising slop to bail out closers. These early races set the table — dig in.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

She's Gotta Go looks like a cut above this maiden claiming dirt field, but two 6/1 shots sitting close in the ratings set up a trifecta sequence worth attacking.

win4She's Gotta GoML 6/1

She's Gotta Go posts the top TrackWiz rating at 82.71 in this maiden claiming sprint and gets trainer Steven Asmussen's son Erik in the irons — a family barn combination that shouldn't be dismissed lightly. The 6/1 morning line on a horse rated this clearly ahead of the field is genuine value; Asmussen's operation knows how to spot maiden winners, and a 53 average speed in a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint is workable. This is a race where the data and the connections align.

place3Crystal FrostML 6/1

Crystal Frost rates third overall at 70.55 and shares the same 6/1 morning line as our top pick — another Asmussen-barn parallel that makes the trifecta structure appealing. Trainer Roddina Barrett puts Edgar Morales up and the 54 average speed is at the top of the field, suggesting Crystal Frost can run with pace and still finish.

show9Watershed MomentML 2/1

Watershed Moment comes in rated 70.12 — nearly identical to Crystal Frost — and Tyler Gaffalione climbs aboard as one of the meet's premier jockeys. The 2/1 morning line signals public expectation, and while that's the favorite role, a horse of this caliber in a maiden claimer landing Gaffalione makes complete sense as a show anchor.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A large maiden special weight field on the dirt mile creates a tangled pace scenario, but the top three in our ratings are close enough that the race could come down to a hot pace collapsing in favor of a stalker.

win1Ever ForwardML 3/1

Ever Forward draws the rail with Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Brendan Walsh — two names that should get any serious player's attention. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating leads the field, and an average speed of 58 is the highest in the race by two ticks, suggesting legitimate raw ability. Walsh is a sharp conditioner who tends to have maiden runners ready, and Gaffalione's rail draw in a big field often means a ground-saving trip that sets up a strong stretch run.

place2DixielandML 9/2

Dixieland opens at 9/2 with trainer William Walden and Axel Concepcion up, sitting second in the TrackWiz ratings at 54.17. No average speed figure is listed, which adds some mystery, but the morning line suggests the connections are confident — in maiden specials, trainer confidence often means a horse has been working well.

show8EtnaML 6/1

Etna slots in third at 51.67 with Gabriel Saez aboard for trainer Bret Calhoun in a 12-horse field. The 56 average speed is second-best in the race and Saez is a skilled handler in long dirt routes — using Etna in the show spot of trifectas provides coverage while the top two duke it out.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Double Talker looks like a dominant class edge in this turf allowance sprint, but Magic Brew's 33% career win rate makes this a two-horse top of the ticket with a clear standout.

win9Double TalkerML 2/1

Double Talker sits at the top of the TrackWiz model at 88.54 — a substantial 9-point margin over the second-ranked horse — and posts a solid 20% career win rate across what appears to be a meaningful sample. Walter Rodriguez gets the mount under trainer Wesley Ward, who is one of the elite turf sprint conditioners in American racing. The 2/1 morning line is short, but when a horse rates this cleanly in an allowance field, backing off entirely is a tough sell.

place3Military CruiserML 7/2

Military Cruiser checks in at 79.49 with Cristian Torres aboard for trainer Nicholas Vaccarezza, and the 58 average speed is tied for tops in the field — that's the kind of raw pace that can sit just off a fast early tempo and swoop late in a 5.5-furlong turf dash. A 10% career win rate won't dazzle, but hitting the board in an allowance turf sprint with that speed figure is entirely realistic at 7/2.

show8Magic BrewML 6/1

Magic Brew is a fascinating piece at 6/1 with Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Gregory Foley. The 33% career win rate is the second-best in the field — only Icona in Race 8 tops it among today's runners — and while the TrackWiz rating of 67.07 is third, horses with a win rate that high tend to find ways to be competitive. Gaffalione riding a closer profile on turf at 5.5 furlongs means he'll be hunting trouble-free ground down the lane.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Sixteen runners flood this maiden special weight mile on dirt, creating a chaotic pace picture — with all horses winless and many showing no published speed figure, this is one of the toughest races on the card to solve.

win2FonzarelliML 7/2

Fonzarelli leads the TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 and comes out of Brad Cox's barn — one of the premier training operations in the country — with Luan Machado climbing aboard. No average speed is listed, which is common for first-time starters, but Cox sends his maiden runners to big fields when he's confident in the works. The 7/2 morning line on a Cox-trained debut horse is a familiar and often profitable angle.

place15SignatureML 9/2

Signature draws program number 15 and opens at 9/2 with Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Brian Lynch — another respected conditioner who typically has horses primed on debut. At 54.17 on the TrackWiz scale, Signature rates second in the field, and Gaffalione's experience guiding first-time starters to the wire makes this a strong place contender in an unwieldy 16-horse field.

show6HickoryML 5/1

Hickory comes in third in the ratings at 53.33 for trainer Cherie DeVaux with Jaime Torres in the irons and a 54 average speed that matches the field median. At 5/1, Hickory offers a slightly longer price than the top two and slots neatly into trifecta structures as a horse with published speed who can hang around late in a mile maiden.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Lush Lips is a near-prohibitive favorite in this turf stakes, making the real game finding the best price to chase behind a horse that looks like the class of the meet.

win6Lush LipsML 2/5

Lush Lips is the most dominant-looking horse on today's entire card — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a 60% career win rate, and a 2/5 morning line that says the market has already made up its mind. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Brendan Walsh, a combination that has produced turf winners all meet long. In stakes company, a horse with a 60% career win rate at a 90 rating level isn't one to overthink — this is a race where you structure your tickets around Lush Lips on top and look for value underneath.

place10IconaML 10/1

Icona opened at 10/1 but flashes a staggering 50% career win rate — second only to Lush Lips in this field — for trainer Brendan Walsh, giving the barn two horses in this spot. Ben Curtis gets the call and the 59.07 TrackWiz rating is well clear of the third-place horse. When a trainer splits runners between the heavy favorite and a double-digit morning line, the second string sometimes shows up with a big run, and Icona's win rate says this is no throwaway entry.

show3Totally JustifiedML 10/1

Totally Justified checks in at 49.18 on TrackWiz and opens at 10/1 for trainer Anna Meah with Joseph Bealmear up. A 12% career win rate and 54 average speed are modest, but in a stakes field where Lush Lips is expected to dominate and most of the rest are fighting for scraps, a horse at double digits with any legitimate form profile can be a low-cost trifecta anchor.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A 15-horse maiden optional claiming turf sprint is a puzzle box — nearly every horse is first or second out with limited published speed figures, so ratings and connections become the primary handicapping lens.

win3CiarlatanoML 9/2

Ciarlatano rates highest in the field at 54.17 with Christopher Emigh up for trainer Brittany Vanden Berg and posts a 54 average speed figure — one of the few horses in this race with any published form. In maiden optionals on turf with this many unknowns, a horse that actually has speed data on file and shows up at 9/2 is a legitimate angle. Vanden Berg is a sharp regional trainer who knows how to place horses.

place8QuigleyML 5/1

Quigley opens at 5/1 for trainer Brian Lynch with Mario Gutierrez aboard — Lynch is a conditioner who earns respect any time he wheels out a debut runner, and Gutierrez adds a skilled hand. The 53.33 TrackWiz rating puts Quigley just behind Ciarlatano, and at 5/1 the price is fair for a horse that rates this close to the top of a very competitive field.

show1ColdspringML 6/1

Coldspring draws the rail at 6/1 for trainer Eddie Kenneally with Francisco Arrieta up, rating 51.67 alongside a cluster of horses at the same mark. No average speed is listed, which adds uncertainty, but Kenneally is a proven turf sprint trainer and a rail draw at 5.5 furlongs on the lawn means a ground-saving trip is very much in play — that alone makes Coldspring worth including in show and trifecta spots.

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Today's card at Ellis Park has genuine range — from early turf routes worth watching closely to a Stakes showdown that'll draw big handles and sharp opinions. Our free best bets center on This Beau Knows, McKinsense, and Can't Stop Willis, three plays with solid TrackWiz ratings and conditions working in their favor. For the full nine-race breakdown, exotic ticket strategy, and pace analysis on Lush Lips and beyond, subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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