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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

August 22, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

This card ran on August 22, 2026.

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Best bets at Ellis Park, August 22, 2026

Race 11Silver SniperML 5/212:50 PM EDT

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Results are in — see the official Ellis Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 9)→

Happy Saturday from Henderson, Kentucky. Ellis Park is putting on a full 9-race card today under clear skies and 84-degree heat — classic late-summer mid-America racing weather. The track has been handling the summer heat well, and a fast, sealed dirt surface is exactly the kind of condition where pace scenarios get predictable and speed figures do the heavy lifting.

Today's card is a nice mix — you've got maiden dirt sprints, a pair of turf routes, a starter allowance, and a couple of allowance spots that should attract some legitimate class. Whether you're looking to cash a win bet or build a multi-race sequence, there are plenty of angles to work with here.

TrackWiz has rated all 9 races. Three are open to everyone, and six are locked for subscribers. Let's set the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 13-horse maiden claiming field at seven furlongs where TrackWiz ratings create a clear top tier — but maiden dirt sprints are notoriously unpredictable, and several runners are first-time starters with unknown ceilings.

win1Silver SniperML 5/2

Silver Sniper (#1) is the top-rated horse in the field by a significant margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 that stands nearly 15 points clear of the second-best horse. Trained by Eric N. Foster and piloted by Francisco Arrieta from the rail, the post isn't ideal in a big field but the talent gap is hard to ignore. The average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this company, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the public already respects this one — though there's still fair value at that price given the rating edge.

place6MizzouML 9/2

Mizzou (#6) is our second pick and brings a TrackWiz rating of 72.57 — the second-highest in the field — with an average speed figure of 54 that keeps pace with the top contenders. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount, one of the sharper jockey pickups on the card, and a 9/2 morning line on a horse with legitimate upside makes the place slot a reasonable target.

show13HyperlinkML 15/1

Hyperlink (#13) is the longshot angle worth including in your exotics here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 62.68 and an average speed figure of 54 despite going off at 15/1 on the morning line. The Steven M. Asmussen barn is represented twice in this race, and the Hall of Fame trainer rarely sends runners out without purpose — Hyperlink looks like the stable's secondary play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:19 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This 5½-furlong turf claimer features a legitimate standout on paper in a field with genuine career win percentage diversity — one horse brings a 28% career win rate while others are winless in double-digit starts, setting up a potential pace battle with multiple tactical options.

win2Bad Beat BrianML 9/2

Bad Beat Brian (#2) is the clear TrackWiz top pick with a rating of 84.90, and the numbers back it up — a career win rate of 15% and an average speed figure of 57 that leads the field. Erik Asmussen gets the mount for the Steve Asmussen barn, and that combination on turf at a short sprint distance is a pattern worth respecting. At 9/2 on the morning line, this is a horse priced more like a third or fourth choice despite the data saying otherwise.

place3Joe the TailorML 12/1

Joe the Tailor (#3) is the most interesting overlay in the race, sporting a 28% career win rate — the highest in the field — at a 12/1 morning line. Trained by Armando Hernandez with Francisco Arrieta in the irons, the connections are capable, and a horse that has won more than a quarter of its career starts doesn't belong at double-digit odds in a field like this. The average speed figure of 56 is right in the mix.

show9Shadow CoastML 6/1

Shadow Coast (#9) rounds out our top three with a TrackWiz rating of 67.56 and an average speed figure of 56, and the 18% career win rate suggests this one knows how to finish. Edgar Morales rides for Kenneth G. Miller, a steady trainer at this level, and at 6/1 the show slot offers fair value in exacta and trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

The first three races are on the house, and honestly, it's a solid trio to open the day. Silver Sniper kicks things off in Race 1 — a 7-furlong maiden claimer on dirt where our model gives him an 87.81 rating and he's sitting at 5/2 on the morning line. That's a fair number, not a steal, but the rating suggests he's legitimately the class of the field. Race 2 flips to the turf for 5½ furlongs, where Bad Beat Brian at 9/2 is our top-rated play — turf sprints at Ellis can be pace-dependent, and his profile fits the surface well. Then Race 3 brings the headliner of the free card: Lord Majesty in a Starter Optional Claiming at 7 furlongs. He's a 6/5 morning-line favorite and earned the highest TrackWiz rating of any free race today at 89.71 — when the model and the oddsmakers agree this loudly, you listen.

On a warm, dry day like this, the dirt should play true and fast. Front-runners and horses that can secure a good early position will have an edge in the shorter dirt sprints. Keep that pace bias in mind as you build your tickets through the first three races.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:48 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Lord Majesty enters as a dominant 6/5 morning-line favorite in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint, and with a rating nearly 11 points clear of the field, this shapes up as a race to beat the chalk — or figure out who finishes second.

win1Lord MajestyML 6/5

Lord Majesty (#1) brings an elite TrackWiz rating of 89.71 and a 33% career win rate — by far the best strike rate in this field. Gabriel Saez takes the call for trainer Cameron Milligan, and an average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the race. Yes, 6/5 is a short price, but when a horse has won one in three lifetime and the rating gap is this wide, the value is in building exotics around the top choice rather than fading it.

place5Derby DateML 4/1

Derby Date (#5) is the most logical backup at 4/1, holding a TrackWiz rating of 78.41 and an average speed figure of 55 for trainer Armando Hernandez with Francisco Arrieta aboard. The 10% career win rate is modest, but the rating and speed figure suggest the form has been better than the results, and a 4/1 price gives the place ticket real value.

show3Swiss GuardML 8/1

Swiss Guard (#3) is worth including in trifecta coverage at 8/1, posting a 58.99 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate that suggests a horse capable of hitting the board. Jaime A. Torres rides for Steve Manley, and while the average speed figure of 52 is a touch below the top tier, the connections and class level make this a reasonable show play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 4

2:16 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses rated nearly identically at the top of this Allowance Optional Claiming field set up a fascinating battle between the Asmussen and Wilkes barns — this is a race with a defined top pair and the question is who gets there first.

win7Vital MindML 7/2

Vital Mind (#7) edges Camp Hale by the slimmest of margins in our ratings at 86.35 versus 85.62, and the career numbers make the case even clearer — a 40% career win rate is remarkable and leads this field by a wide margin. Erik Asmussen rides for father Steve Asmussen, the barn firing on all cylinders, and an average speed figure of 56 ties the best in the race. At 7/2 on the morning line, a horse with a 40% win rate might actually be underpriced.

place6Camp HaleML 4/1

Camp Hale (#6) is essentially co-top pick with a 85.62 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 56, and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. taking the mount for Ian R. Wilkes adds another top-tier jockey-trainer combination. The 18% career win rate trails Vital Mind considerably, but Hernandez aboard a sharp horse in an allowance spot is a combo that consistently hits the board.

show2Jefferson StreetML 5/2

Jefferson Street (#2) slots in third with a 69.40 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate, both well-above-average for this company. William I. Mott is the trainer — a name synonymous with well-prepared allowance horses — and with Jaime A. Torres in the irons, the connections give this one a legitimate shot at the exacta and trifecta spots at a 5/2 morning line.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A massive 16-horse Maiden Special Weight field of fillies and mares going six furlongs on dirt — with nearly half the field showing no recorded workout speed and no career races, trainer reputation becomes a critical handicapping factor.

win2Special LibertyML 7/2

Special Liberty (#2) is our top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 and the Brendan P. Walsh barn sending her out — Walsh is one of the elite conditioners in American racing and his debut runners are always live. At 7/2 on the morning line in a crowded, confusing field, Cristian A. Torres gets the call, and while no prior speed figure is available, the trainer angle alone elevates Special Liberty above the competition.

place7Jump SeatML 4/1

Jump Seat (#7) draws the Brad H. Cox connection, which is one of the strongest trainer angle plays at any mid-major track — Cox's debut runners hit at a high rate and are almost always well-prepared. The 55.00 TrackWiz rating places this one just a tick below our top pick, and at 4/1 with Luan Machado up, the place ticket has real upside in a wide-open field.

show4Don't Tell MomML 8/1

Don't Tell Mom (#4) at 8/1 is the best-priced horse in our top three, carrying a 48.33 TrackWiz rating and the Brian A. Lynch trainer connection — another proven handler of debut and lightly-raced maidens. Yedsit Hazlewood rides, and without workout speed figures for most of this field, the show spot is about pedigree and connections rather than pure numbers.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 6

3:12 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A 15-horse maiden field that goes to post as wide open as they come — nearly every horse has a zero career win percentage and no recorded speed figures, making trainer and jockey matchups the primary handicapping edge.

win6EleweneML 2/1

Elewene (#6) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.33, backed by an average speed figure of 56 — the best in this field. Dale L. Romans trains and Martin Garcia rides, a capable pairing at Ellis Park, and the combination of the highest speed figure and top rating is enough justification to side with the chalk even in a murky maiden field.

place5Sweet VentureML 7/2

Sweet Venture (#5) is right behind at a 55.83 TrackWiz rating with an average speed figure of 55, and the Eddie Kenneally barn has a solid reputation developing maiden fillies. Francisco Arrieta gets the call, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse that the market already respects — the place slot looks like a safe target in your exotics.

show7Callie's DanceML 6/1

Callie's Dance (#7) at 6/1 rounds out the tickets with a 51.67 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55 that matches up well with the top pair. Joe Sharp trains and Axel Concepcion rides — two respected names in this circuit — and the 6/1 price gives this one genuine overlay value relative to its credentials.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 15 runners

Race 7

3:42 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse Starter Allowance at six furlongs where Capital Connection stands out at the top of our ratings, but several horses with big career win percentages lurk at generous prices — the pace scenario figures to be contested with multiple horses that want to press forward.

win8Capital ConnectionML 4/1

Capital Connection (#8) leads all horses in this field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 56, and Gabriel Saez takes the mount for trainer Carlos Santamaria. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is one of those spots where the best-rated horse is also the value play — a 15% career win rate is modest, but the rating and speed figure suggest the best is still ahead.

place7EditorML 8/1

Editor (#7) is a legitimate threat at 8/1, posting a 79.79 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 33% career win rate — one of the highest in the field. Francisco Arrieta rides for Carlos A. David, a trainer who operates efficiently at this level, and a horse with a one-in-three lifetime win rate at 8/1 in a spot like this is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is designed to find.

show2Trouble AheadML 7/2

Trouble Ahead (#2) is the 7/2 morning-line second choice and holds a 77.20 TrackWiz rating with an 18% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55. Danny Sheehy rides for Cameron Milligan, and this one's profile — consistent speed figures, solid trainer — screams board horse. The show slot is almost a formality at that rating.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

4:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A 12-horse allowance on turf going 1 1/16 miles, where the top of our ratings cluster tightly between 71 and 78 — this is a race without a dominant horse and pace shape over a mile on grass could shuffle the order dramatically.

win1Sy BML 3/1

Sy B (#1) tops our ratings at 78.02 despite a modest 10% career win rate, and the Cherie DeVaux barn has a track record of placing horses appropriately. Axel Concepcion rides, and an average speed figure of 54 is right in line with the field average going a route on turf. The 3/1 morning line makes this the public's top pick as well — rare when the ratings and the market fully agree.

place12La CanteraML 5/1

La Cantera (#12) posts a 71.48 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate, with Francisco Arrieta up for trainer Carlos A. David — the same barn sending out Editor in Race 7, a barn that knows how to prep horses for turf routes. An average speed figure of 55 is one of the better marks in the field, and 5/1 gives the place ticket a nice price.

show2Miss ComplicatedML 10/1

Miss Complicated (#2) is a fascinating show play at 10/1, carrying a 71.44 TrackWiz rating — virtually identical to La Cantera — with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. aboard for Ian R. Wilkes. A 12% career win rate seems low for a horse with this rating profile, suggesting either tough luck or tough competition, and 10/1 on a horse rated this closely to our top picks is genuine value.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 9

4:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The finale is a wide-open 14-horse maiden turf sprint where our top-rated horse goes off at 10/1 — a genuine overlay situation that sets up nicely for bettors willing to go against the grain on the morning line.

win8Toast the StarML 10/1

Toast the Star (#8) is the top-rated horse in the field at 76.88 — edging 5/1 Fregata by just a whisker — but goes off at 10/1 on the morning line, which is exactly the kind of gap between market price and our ratings that TrackWiz analysis is built to surface. Walter A. Rodriguez rides for trainer John A. Hancock, and an average speed figure of 56 is tied for the best in the race. This is our best value play on the card.

place1FregataML 5/1

Fregata (#1) is essentially co-top pick at a 76.67 rating for trainer Wayne M. Catalano, with Victor R. Carrasco in the irons and an average speed figure of 56 matching the best in the field. Catalano is a proven turf trainer and the 5/1 morning line actually prices this one more accurately than our win pick — the place slot looks very solid.

show5Paradise StreetML 7/2

Paradise Street (#5) is the morning-line second favorite at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 68.35 and an average speed figure of 55 for trainer Brian A. Lynch. Mario Gutierrez rides, and Lynch saddles two runners in this race, which often signals a barn confident in its ability to place horses — Paradise Street looks like the stable's A-entry for a reason.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

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Bottom line: Lord Majesty is the marquee free play of the day, Silver Sniper and Bad Beat Brian give you a solid foundation early, and the premium card has six more races with pace angles and longshot opportunities worth digging into. It's a great day at Ellis Park — enjoy the races, and good luck out there. 🏇

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