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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 21, 2026

August 21, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

This card ran on August 21, 2026.

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Best bets at Ellis Park, August 21, 2026

Race 11MenkaureML 9/212:50 PM EDT

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Results are in — see the official Ellis Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 9)→

Ellis Park is open for business on a beautiful Friday afternoon — clear skies, 83 degrees, and a fast dirt track that should reward horses with early speed and clean trips. Nine races are on the menu today, mixing claimers, maidens, allowance company, and a pair of turf miles that could produce some fireworks.

The card has a little bit of everything. You've got maiden races on both ends of the card that can be notoriously tricky to handicap, a couple of grass routes where pace scenarios tend to get scrambled, and some allowance spots where class separations are real and exploitable. In other words, a full day's work — and we've got you covered from Race 1 to Race 9.

Three races are fully open to all TrackWiz readers today. The other six are part of our premium full-card breakdown. Here's how the day shapes up.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Our top-rated horse opens at a generous 9/2 in this 6.5-furlong claiming opener, while the morning-line favorite Heartbeat at 7/5 looks vulnerable against a field with legitimate pace pressure from multiple angles.

win1MenkaureML 9/2

Menkaure tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 — a full ten points clear of the field — and opens at a juicy 9/2 on the morning line, which looks like real value. The 22% career win rate is respectable for a claimer, and Gerardo Corrales gets the call in what shapes up as a pace-friendly setup for a horse with his profile. That rating gap over even the second-best horse (Final Shipman at 79.23) is the kind of separation we want to see when backing a non-favorite. At those odds, this is our best bet of the opener.

place7Final ShipmanML 5/1

Final Shipman at 5/1 is an intriguing secondary play with a TrackWiz rating of 79.23 — second-best in the field. The 20% career win rate is solid for this level, and an average speed figure of 55 ties him for the field's best alongside Wild Acclaim. Edgar Morales knows this track well and gives the barn a strong pilot to work with.

show2Danzig's DoraML 7/2

Danzig's Dora brings the field's best career win percentage at 37% — that's a horse who knows how to get there. Eddie Kenneally is a sharp conditioner, and pairing him with Ben Curtis in a claiming sprint gives this entry every chance to hit the board. At 7/2 she's the morning-line second choice, so the show price may not be generous, but she's a safe exotics anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:19 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden optional claiming sprint with 13 runners and zero career wins in the field — maiden chaos at its finest, where pace and trainer patterns often matter more than past results.

win11EleweneML 2/1

Elewene is our top selection in a tricky maiden field, posting the field's best TrackWiz rating at 58.33 and an average speed figure of 56 — one of only two horses above 55 in this group. The 2/1 morning line reflects real public respect, and trainer Dale Romans consistently fires horses ready to run, especially on the dirt. Martin Garcia has been a dependable rider at Ellis and gives this filly a capable hand in a key spot.

place8Unbridled FreedomML 9/2

Unbridled Freedom comes in for Eddie Kenneally with Ben Curtis up — that's a sharp trainer-jockey combo that rarely wastes a start. At 9/2 on the morning line with a 54.17 rating, she's the fourth-highest-rated horse in the field and a logical place contender in a race where the top two could separate from the pack. Worth keying in exactas underneath Elewene.

show4TipoffML 6/1

Tipoff represents the Asmussen barn with Erik Asmussen in the irons — a family operation that's been productive at Ellis Park. The 51.67 rating ties Breadcrumb Trail for third in the field, and an average speed of 53 gives him a baseline to work from. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's a fair show price and a reasonable exotics inclusion in a wide-open maiden event.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Our three free best-bet races — Race 1 (Claiming, 6½ furlongs), Race 2 (Maiden Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs), and Race 3 (Claiming, 1 mile) — give you a solid starting lineup across different race types. Menkaure headlines Race 1 at a 9/2 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 84.9, the kind of number that suggests he belongs on top of this field and still offers some value. In Race 3, Sound Cause catches our eye at 5/1 — a horse we like at a price going a flat mile in a claiming spot. And in the maiden race, Elewene comes in as the 2/1 morning line favorite and our top selection, though the maiden pool always carries some risk when experience is limited all around.

On a clear, warm day like today, the Ellis Park dirt should be consistent and fair — no bias concerns to work around. That actually makes the pace picture more predictable in these shorter sprints, which is good news for horses like Menkaure who we expect to be forwardly placed from the gate.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming affair featuring a stacked top half of the field — four horses rated in the 70s and 80s — setting up a potential pace duel that could benefit a closer with a big enough kick.

win2Sound CauseML 5/1

Sound Cause heads our TrackWiz rankings at 84.17, the clear top-rated horse in a competitive field, and comes in at a generous 5/1 morning line despite that edge. The 5% career win rate is modest, but in claiming races the rating model accounts for more than raw win percentage — pace efficiency and speed figure consistency matter, and Sound Cause scores well on both. Trainer Steven Asmussen keeps Erik in the irons, maintaining the barn's in-house operation. This is a horse that should be bet down come post time.

place8Good MojoML 4/1

Good Mojo rolls in at 4/1 with the second-highest TrackWiz rating (81.65) and the field's best average speed figure at 55 — that's real speed in a mile dirt race. Adam Beschizza rides for Matt Shirer, and the 8% career win rate undersells a horse who may be knocking on the door after some near-misses. A pace that gets contested up front sets up this type perfectly.

show4FeralML 8/1

Feral at 8/1 is the third-highest-rated horse in the field at 76.63, and Ben Curtis is a top-shelf jockey who doesn't take throw-away mounts. The 12% career win rate on the surface suggests he fires at a decent clip, and an average speed of 53 matches up respectably with the rest of the field. Trainer Michael Tomlinson has the horse pointed right, and at 8/1 you're getting solid show value.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

2:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A full ten-horse Maiden Special Weight field at a mile on the dirt, where two horses — Find No Fault and Flick — have separated themselves from the pack on our ratings, setting up a potential top-two duel worth building exotics around.

win3Find No FaultML 7/2

Find No Fault leads the entire field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and shows an average speed figure of 55, matching the class benchmark for maiden special weight horses at this distance. Trainer Dale Romans has a long track record of pointing horses correctly at Ellis, and Gerardo Corrales has the inside knowledge of this oval to navigate a full field cleanly. Opening at 7/2, the morning-line price feels about right — but if Romans has this one ready, there could be value at that number.

place10FlickML 4/1

Flick is a razor-thin second in our ratings at 84.79 and draws Gabriel Saez, one of the meet's sharper riders. Trainer Michael Tomlinson has the horse dialed in for a one-mile debut, and an average speed of 54 puts him right in the mix on pace. At 4/1 on the morning line, Flick is a natural place alternative and could easily flip the script on Find No Fault if the pace sets up differently.

show6Our ForefathersML 5/2

Our Forefathers checks in with a 79.48 rating — third-best in the field — and goes as the morning-line second choice at 5/2, which means the public already respects this one. Ben Curtis aboard for Peter Eurton is a serious combination at any track, and while an average speed of 53 puts him slightly off the pace leaders, he's capable of running into a piece of this at an accessible price. A solid show anchor in multi-race wagers.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

2:44 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf starter allowance sees the morning-line chalk Modern Sound at 5/2 face a bigger field than expected, and our TrackWiz model likes a double-digit price as the value play in what could be a wide-open grass scramble.

win1Got GoneML 10/1

Got Gone opens at 10/1 but leads our entire field with a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 — that's a meaningful separation from both the 5/2 and 3/1 morning-line horses. A 28% career win percentage is legitimately strong for this level and surface, and trainer John Ennis has his horse fit enough to take on a starter allowance field. Alex Achard gets the call and knows the Ellis turf course well. When our top-rated horse is a double-digit price, that's a value play we can't ignore.

place7Modern SoundML 5/2

Modern Sound at 5/2 is the morning-line second choice and carries a 72.05 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Florent Geroux is a big-meet rider who delivers on the turf, and trainer Michael Maker is one of the best grass conditioners in the region. The 11% career win rate may look modest, but Maker horses often earn checks before breaking through, and the place seems highly attainable here.

show11AsteriaML 8/1

Asteria draws in at 8/1 with a solid 68.85 rating — third-best in the field — and a 25% career win percentage that shows genuine ability to hit the board. Trainer Anna Navarrete puts Santo Sanjur up, and an average speed of 54 on the turf is right in line with the competitive horses here. At 8/1, she's a live show play and worth including in trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

3:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile allowance looks like a two-horse show at the top of our TrackWiz ratings, with Tre Italiani running away with the highest number and Penalty Box close behind — but a contentious pace scenario could shake things up.

win2Tre ItalianiML 5/2

Tre Italiani is the class of this field by our ratings at 87.81 — the highest-rated horse across any of today's allowance fields — and Walter Rodriguez has been riding with real confidence at this meet. The 10% career win rate is low for an allowance standout, but the speed figure of 55 is exactly where you need to be at this level, and trainer Larry Rivelli points horses precisely. At 5/2 on the morning line, this one's likely to be the well-backed choice, and for good reason.

place1Penalty BoxML 9/2

Penalty Box at 9/2 is a value-leaning place play with a strong 78.97 TrackWiz rating and Ben Curtis in the irons — a rider who rarely goes down without a fight. The 14% career win rate and average speed of 54 paint the picture of a consistent competitor who earns checks. Trainer Michael McCarthy is quietly effective in spots like this, and the 9/2 morning line price gives you something to work with in the place column.

show3ChillaxML 7/2

Chillax at 7/2 is the third-rated horse in the field at 62.08 and brings Rafael Bejarano back from the David Jacobson barn — a pairing that's been productive at meets throughout the region. The 7% career win rate is modest, but an average speed of 54 keeps him competitive on paper, and in an allowance field where the top two could clear the rest, Chillax looks like a logical show finisher. Good exotics support at that price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

3:42 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An 11-horse turf starter allowance at a mile where our top pick sits at 9/2 despite commanding the field by rating — and a horse going off at 8/1 makes a compelling case as a pace-chasing value play underneath.

win4Michael's CoveML 9/2

Michael's Cove leads this field convincingly at 84.9 on our TrackWiz ratings — a full 16 points ahead of the third-highest-rated horse — and carries a 22% career win rate that backs up the model's confidence. Axel Concepcion gets the call for Troy Newton's barn, and the 55 average speed figure is among the field's best on what could be a soft turf surface. At 9/2, this is a case where the rating and the price align nicely for a best-bet play.

place8Landing CraftML 8/1

Landing Craft at 8/1 is our place play and arguably the most interesting price in the race. The 68.4 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and an average speed of 56 — tied for the highest in this entire race — suggests this horse has the raw ability to compete. Trainer Jordan Blair and Edgar Morales team up and have demonstrated chemistry together this meet. The 5% career win rate means he hasn't broken through yet, but second and third finishes could be lurking.

show2Gene and JudeML 7/2

Gene and Jude comes in as third-best in our ratings at 64.73 with an 18% career win rate — genuinely solid for a starter allowance grass field. Trainer Michael Maker doesn't run horses to finish fourth, and Danny Sheehy knows how to nurse a horse into a late position. The average speed of 55 keeps him dangerous in the stretch, and at 7/2, he's a reliable show anchor for anyone building a trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 8

4:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The 4/5 morning-line favorite Highgrove is the obvious public target in this six-furlong allowance, but our TrackWiz model flips the script — going hard against the chalk and toward a big-price horse with a significantly superior rating.

win4Rational TheoryML 12/1

Rational Theory opens at 12/1 on the morning line yet leads our entire field with a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 — while the 4/5 favorite Highgrove sits at just 60.0. That's a 14-point gap in the wrong direction for the chalk, and that kind of model divergence from public opinion is exactly where we look for value. The 15% career win rate for Rational Theory is respectable, and an average speed of 55 matches the top performers in this race. Erik Asmussen keeps it in the barn for trainer Steve Asmussen — always a factor at Ellis Park.

place7Moonlight DashML 7/2

Moonlight Dash at 7/2 is our place selection with a 67.38 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field, and a 20% career win rate that suggests a real winner in here. Martin Garcia has been one of the more reliable riders at this meet, and trainer Philip Bauer keeps his horse in peak six-furlong form. An average speed of 55 means this one can keep up with the pace and have something left in the lane.

show5HighgroveML 4/5

Highgrove at 4/5 is the morning-line favorite, and despite our model preferring others, the 50% career win rate and 56 average speed — highest in the race — are numbers that are hard to fully dismiss. Brad Cox trains and Florent Geroux rides, which is a formidable combination at any track. We're going against this one to win, but in show position, the 4/5 chalk's raw ability makes a board finish likely.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 9

4:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A massive 16-horse maiden special weight sprint to close out the card — first-time starters dominate the field, trainer angles and workout patterns loom large, and Brad Cox saddles two of the top contenders.

win12National ForestML 7/2

National Forest is our top pick at 55.83 on the TrackWiz ratings and opens at a fair 7/2 — one of two Brad Cox runners in the race, giving the trainer even more leverage in a field full of unknowns. Axel Concepcion gets the ride, and Cox-Concepcion is a reliable combo when the barn is serious. In a first-out field where speed figures are largely unavailable, trainer reputation and rating carry extra weight, and National Forest checks both boxes.

place3StaunchML 9/2

Staunch represents Brendan Walsh with Ben Curtis up — a combination that fires at a high clip when pointing first-timers in maiden special weight company. The 54.17 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and Walsh has a knack for having horses ready on debut without needing a prep race. At 9/2, Staunch is a natural place play and a horse we'd want underneath in any vertical exotic.

show2JokesterML 5/1

Jokester is the only horse in this race with a published average speed figure of 54, which means he's had a chance to show his hand on the work tab or in a gate breeze — a real edge in a first-timer-heavy field. Trainer George Weaver travels horses with intent, and Danny Sheehy is an effective pilot in sprint situations. The 5/1 morning line and 53.33 rating make him a comfortable show anchor to round out trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

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Bottom line: Ellis Park is giving us a fun, playable Friday card. Start with Menkaure in Race 1, keep an eye on Sound Cause at a price in Race 3, and don't sleep on what's happening in the allowance and turf races deeper in the card. For the full picture — pace shapes, exotic tickets, and every premium pick — subscribers can access the complete analysis now. Not a member yet? Check out our plans at TrackWiz Premium and get in before post time.

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