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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 17, 2026

August 17, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

It's a beautiful late-summer Monday at Ellis Park — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 83°F mean the turf course should be running true, and the dirt strip figures to be in good shape as well. With four turf races on the nine-race card, grass form is going to matter today, so pay close attention to horses with proven turf numbers.

We've got a nice mix of conditions to work through — maiden claimers, straight claimers, an allowance optional claimer, and a maiden special weight — spread across sprint and route distances on both surfaces. There's something here for every type of bettor, from pace-angle hunters on the dirt to class-dropper spotters on the lawn.

TrackWiz has rated every horse in every race and identified our top picks for all nine. Three races are available free to all readers, with the remaining six unlocked for subscribers who want the full edge.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open claiming mile on dirt where the morning line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — expect some fireworks when the speed figures tell a different story than the oddsboard.

win3Refined DesignML 8/1

Refined Design (8/1) is the standout on our ratings with a 79.79 — nearly six points clear of the next-best horse in the field. Posted at 8/1, this is a legitimate overlay situation where the public hasn't caught up to what the numbers are saying. Gabriel Saez picks up the mount, and he's a savvy veteran who knows how to rate a horse going two turns. At this price in a claiming mile, Refined Design is our best bet on the card opener.

place6Midnight VengeanceML 7/2

Midnight Vengeance brings a 74.3 TrackWiz rating into a field where that figure sits comfortably second-best, and Ben Curtis in the irons is a rider who consistently gets the most out of horses at this level. The 7/2 morning line reflects public respect, and while the win picture is tougher, securing a piece of this field looks very manageable for #6.

show8Surfin' MML 4/1

Surfin' M checks in with a 67.95 rating and a 4/1 ticket, making it a solid exotic anchor at a price that should hold some value. Cristian Torres takes the mount, and the horse's average speed figure of 51 is respectable for this field. In a race where pace could get messy going a mile, a closer type finding clear running late is a real scenario here.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint full of first-timers and winless runners, but one horse separates herself clearly on the TrackWiz ratings — the question is whether the public price reflects it.

win4Valentine EveML 2/1

Valentine Eve tops this maiden claiming field with a 78.64 rating, a massive gap over the second-rated Southern Way at 55.0 — that's nearly 24 points of separation, which is significant in a field of unraced or lightly-raced maidens. The Asmussen barn connection (Steven M. training, Keith J. riding) is a formidable combo that knows how to spot these types for their best spot. Listed at 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the edge in raw ratings makes her the clear logical top choice.

place3Southern WayML 4/1

Southern Way (4/1) backs up the top selection nicely with a 55.0 rating and Cristian Torres aboard for the Brisset barn. Rodolphe Brisset is a sharp conditioner who places horses well in maiden company, and Torres gives her every chance to find her best ground in a sprint. At 4/1, the place price should offer some value in a wide-open bottom half of the field.

show6Grace MarieML 9/2

Grace Marie rates at 54.17 for the Brad Cox barn, and Cox's operation is consistently one of the most profitable in the country when it comes to developing young horses. Luan Machado rides, and the 9/2 morning line suggests the market respects this one. In a maiden race with a lot of unknowns, a Cox-trained runner showing a competitive rating is exactly the type you want anchoring your show spots.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Thirteen runners go postward in a maiden optional claiming mile on the turf — a full field with plenty of pace uncertainty and several horses without published speed figures, making this a real handicapping puzzle.

win7Donie MaronieML 3/1

Donie Maronie leads our ratings at 56.67 and comes in with a top-end average speed figure of 56, tied for the highest in this turf field. Mark Casse is one of the premier turf trainers in North America, and Cristian Torres gives the horse a confident pilot going a mile on grass. At 3/1, there's not a ton of value, but the combination of the highest TrackWiz rating, a proven turf trainer, and a strong speed figure makes this horse the most logical top choice.

place2Que SeraML 4/1

Que Sera (4/1) rates at 55.0 for trainer Eddie Kenneally, who has a long track record of getting results out of turf maidens at this distance. Ben Curtis is one of the better grass riders in the region, and without a published speed figure to evaluate, Kenneally's read on this horse's readiness carries extra weight. The price is fair for a place ticket.

show8Doctor ApprovedML 5/1

Doctor Approved posts a 53.33 rating for the Calhoun barn and shows an average speed figure of 54 — solid for an optional claiming turf maiden. Axel Concepcion is up, and while this horse sits third on our ratings, the 5/1 morning line makes a show ticket reasonable in a full thirteen-horse field where the pace is hard to predict. A good trip from a good rider can cover a lot of sins at this level.

Our three free races kick things off early and they're worth your full attention. Refined Design opens the card as an intriguing 8/1 morning line shot going a mile on the dirt — that's the kind of overlay we love to flag. Valentine Eve looks like a logical favorite in Race 2's six-furlong maiden claimer, and in Race 3 on the turf, Donie Maronie draws a pace scenario that should set up nicely for a closer going the classic one-mile distance.

The common thread across these free picks: each horse profiles as the most versatile pace-wise in their respective field. On a card with this many route races, pace shape is everything — and TrackWiz analysis has zeroed in on horses positioned to benefit when early speed battles itself into the ground.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Full field of thirteen in a maiden claiming sprint, and this one has a clear TrackWiz standout — though big fields on dirt at six furlongs can get chaotic early, so anything can happen once the gate opens.

win7BienvilleML 7/2

Bienville (7/2) leads the entire field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating, a significant margin over second-rated Telecaster at 75.55. The Steven M. Asmussen barn puts Erik Asmussen in the irons, a combination that knows how to set these maidens up for a big debut or breakthrough effort. The average speed figure of 53 is modest, but the overall profile here points to a horse that's been well-prepared for this spot — Asmussen rarely enters horses without a plan.

place4TelecasterML 6/1

Telecaster (6/1) is a legit alternative with a 75.55 rating and an impressive average speed figure of 55 — second-best in the field. Trainer Hutch Holsapple puts William Antongeorgi III in the irons, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay potential here. In a race where Bienville gets all the attention, Telecaster could sneak around at a very workable price.

show2HellaciousML 8/1

Hellacious checks in at 67.75 for the Niccolo Troiani barn with Gabriel Saez up, and at 8/1 represents a fair exotics play in a wide field. The average speed figure of 54 is competitive with the top of this field, and Saez is the kind of rider who can navigate maiden fields cleanly. If there's pace pressure up front, a stalker type like Hellacious could be sitting on a nice trip for the show spot.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A turf mile claiming race that sets up as a battle between the TrackWiz ratings leader and a field that features some intriguing win percentages — including one horse showing a 50% career win rate that deserves a second look.

win9GalatinaML 3/1

Galatina tops our ratings at 82.78 and pairs with Gabriel Saez, one of the most accomplished turf jockeys in the game at this level. The Joe Sharp barn is no stranger to placing horses effectively on the grass, and Galatina's average speed figure of 54 supports the rating. At 3/1, this isn't a huge overlay, but the combination of the top rating, top jockey, and a smart trainer makes this our best bet on the turf in Race 5.

place2Never Really KnowML 6/1

Never Really Know (6/1) is a fascinating profile — a 71.08 rating combined with a 16% career win rate and Cristian Torres in the irons for the Norm Casse stable. Norm Casse is a solid grass conditioner who puts horses in spots where they can compete, and Torres knows how to get a horse into contention on the turf mile. The 6/1 price makes this an excellent value play to land a piece.

show3SussudioML 5/1

Sussudio rates at 61.65 for Jeff Hiles with Adam Beschizza up, and at 5/1 represents solid exotics value in a full eleven-horse field. A 12% career win rate shows this horse knows how to finish, and the average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the class. In a turf mile where the pace can be fluid, a dependable closer type at a fair price is exactly what you want underneath.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A massive sixteen-horse maiden special weight sprint on dirt — full fields create chaos, and when the morning line favorite sits at just 7/2 in a field this large, the door is wide open for value at longer prices.

win9SomnambulistML 10/1

Somnambulist is our top selection at 10/1 with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — that's a significant edge in a big field where the next-highest rated non-longshot is Moona Lisa at 55.83. Adam Beschizza rides for trainer Kelsey Danner, and while Danner doesn't carry a household name, the horse's rating speaks for itself. In a sixteen-horse maiden field, pace is going to be a factor, and a horse with this kind of rating edge in the numbers has a real path to the front in the stretch.

place12Moona LisaML 7/2

Moona Lisa (7/2) is the morning line favorite with a 55.83 rating and an average speed figure of 55 — one of the better marks in the field. Florent Geroux takes the mount for Bob Baffert, and Baffert-Geroux is a pairing that commands respect whenever it shows up in maiden company. The favorite rating makes sense, and a place finish is a very realistic expectation.

show5Love DivineML 9/2

Love Divine (9/2) is trained by Steven M. Asmussen and ridden by Keith J. Asmussen — a father-son combo that operates like a finely-tuned machine. The 54.17 rating and average speed figure of 54 are competitive in this field, and Asmussen has a habit of winning maiden special weight races. At 9/2, the show price offers decent value in a wide field, and the barn connection alone is worth a ticket.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A fourteen-horse turf claiming field at a mile and a sixteenth, with two horses rated well clear of the pack on our metrics — but at 5/1 and 9/2, neither screams value, while the third pick at 6/1 offers the best overlay angle.

win4RulookinforrayrayML 5/1

Rulookinforrayray leads all comers with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating in a deep field, and Edgar Morales gets the call for trainer Thomas Drury Jr. — a solid regional conditioner who knows how to place horses in turf claiming events. The average speed figure of 54 is consistent with the top of this field, and a 6% career win rate that belies the talent level suggests this horse is moving up in form. At 5/1, the price is workable for a win ticket.

place5Da Prince Is RightML 9/2

Da Prince Is Right (9/2) rates at 78.87 with a 20% career win rate — that's a legitimate strike rate for a horse at this level, and Florent Geroux in the irons for Michael Maker is a top-shelf combination. Maker is one of the sharpest turf trainers in the Midwest, and Geroux consistently gets the most out of closers on the grass. This horse profiles as a serious threat to run into the exacta.

show2Gallic CharmML 6/1

Gallic Charm brings a 72.08 rating and an impressive 25% career win rate — one of the stronger strike rates in this field — for trainer Ismael Bahena, with Gerardo Corrales up. At 6/1, this is the best overlay among our top three, and a horse that wins a quarter of the time at the career level is exactly the type you want in your show spot. In a fourteen-horse field, consistent horses at a fair price are gold.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint at six and a half furlongs that features a standout on both the ratings and the win percentage — but two other live contenders with big career win rates could make this more competitive than the numbers suggest.

win8DreaminblueML 3/1

Dreaminblue is our top selection with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — and an average speed figure of 56, tied for best in the race. Rafael Bejarano takes the mount for Randy Morse, and Bejarano is a proven hand at this distance on dirt. At 3/1, the morning line reflects the market's respect, and a 20% career win rate in allowance company shows this horse can get the job done when conditions align.

place10Here Mi SongML 5/1

Here Mi Song (5/1) rates at 80.03 with a 22% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 — elite numbers in this field. Edgar Morales gets the call for William Stinson Jr., and the combination of a high speed figure, a strong win rate, and a competitive trainer makes this horse a serious contender to run into the exacta. The 5/1 price is genuine value for a horse this well-credentialed.

show6AutodriveML 8/1

Autodrive is the most fascinating profile in the race — a 78.41 rating paired with a 60% career win rate is extraordinary, and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is one of the elite riders in the region. The average speed figure of 57 is the best posted number in the entire field. For W. Bret Calhoun, who conditions this horse, getting a legitimate 8/1 morning line on a 60% winner in allowance company is a real gift — this horse absolutely belongs in your exotics.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Fourteen maidens go at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf to close out the card — a large field of winless runners with scattered speed figures and some legit longshot angles in a race that's tailor-made for multi-race exotic players.

win11RockfestML 10/1

Rockfest (10/1) leads the field with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55 — the best combination of the two in this field. Walter Rodriguez gets the call for James DiVito, and while DiVito isn't a household name, he places horses effectively at Ellis Park. In a maiden turf field at this distance, a horse that shows both a strong rating and a legit speed figure at double-digit odds is exactly the value angle we love closing out a card with.

place3Mr. All InML 6/1

Mr. All In (6/1) rates at 66.61 for the W. Bret Calhoun barn, with Jaime Torres in the irons — a reliable pairing on the turf at Ellis. The average speed figure of 54 is competitive, and at 6/1, this is solid overlay territory for a horse trained by one of the most successful conditioners in the region. Calhoun knows how to get maiden turf runners fit and ready, and Torres will have the horse in the right spot throughout.

show13WaittilnextyearML 15/1

Waittilnextyear (15/1) is the longshot angle here, rated at 64.43 with an average speed figure of 55 — matching the win pick at the top of the field's speed marks. Luan Machado takes the mount for Conor Murphy, and the combination of a strong speed figure with a 15/1 price is a classic TrackWiz value spot. In a fourteen-horse maiden field on the turf, chaos is baked in, and a horse with a top-end speed figure at big odds is worth tossing in underneath in your trifectas.

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Ellis Park is serving up a well-rounded nine-race card with serious opportunities on both surfaces. Dreaminblue is our top-rated horse of the day and the anchor of any serious ticket. Don't sleep on the turf longshots in Races 6 and 9 — our model sees something the morning line doesn't. Free picks for Races 1–3 are live now, and the full card breakdown is waiting for you at /pricing. Good luck out there — let's make Monday count.

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