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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 16, 2026
Ellis Park is rolling out a nine-race Sunday card on a warm, partly cloudy afternoon — 86°F at post time with conditions that should keep the main track playing fast. No rain in the picture, which means we're likely looking at a typical summer Ellis dirt surface: firm, speed-friendly, and unforgiving if you draw wide and fall asleep early.
The turf course is also in play across three races today (Races 4, 6, and 9), so if the going is good out there, expect some competitive fields on the grass. With a mix of maiden events, claiming races, and a pair of allowance spots, there's something for every kind of bettor on this card — from straightforward single-race wagers to multi-race exotics with some real teeth.
TrackWiz has ratings on every runner from the jump. Three races are open to all readers, with the full nine-race breakdown available to subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
A wide-open 6.5-furlong dirt claimer with a clear top two in the ratings but a sneaky third horse at a massive price who could steal show money and shake up exacta boxes.
Mitty's Griddy lands on top of our ratings with an 88.54 score and comes in with a 20% career win rate — one of the better win percentages in this field. Trainer Joe Sharp puts his horses in position to fire, and Axel Concepcion knows how to exploit pace in a sprint. The morning line of 2/1 reflects the market's respect here, and the avg speed figure of 55 is competitive. This is our top selection and the one to build exotics around.
Guardian draws the rail for Summer Pauly under David Jacobson and posts a strong TrackWiz rating of 80.01 — second best in the field. A 12% career win rate might not jump off the page, but the avg speed of 56 is the highest in the race, suggesting there's raw ability here that could translate into a big effort at 6.5 furlongs. At 3/1 on the morning line, Guardian represents solid place value.
Solevo is the kind of horse that sneaks into the show slot at a price — listed at 12/1 on the morning line but carries a 69.01 TrackWiz rating that puts him well clear of the mid-pack. He's working with trainer Steven M. Asmussen, one of the top conditioners in the country, and Erik Asmussen in the irons keeps it in the family. The 6% career win rate is a concern, but in a race with pace pressure up front, a closer type like Solevo can get a piece at a generous price.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt
A maiden special weight mile on dirt loaded with first-time starters — nobody has a win to their name, making trainer patterns and raw ratings the primary handicapping tools.
Fast Gun tops our TrackWiz ratings at 89.42 and draws the attention of the morning line makers at 7/5 — clearly the public agrees. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen has a long track record of sending debut horses out ready to run, and Keith J. Asmussen in the saddle keeps this a tight-knit barn operation. None of these horses have won before, but Fast Gun's rating separation over the field is significant enough to make this a confident top selection.
Lady Law is our place pick at a very playable 4/1 morning line, with a TrackWiz rating of 79.39 — meaningfully ahead of the rest of the field outside Fast Gun. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a seasoned horseman with routes on dirt, and Luan Machado gets the call. In a full maiden field where the favorite can get troubled early, Lady Law looks like the most logical beneficiary of any scrambling.
She's Our Girl checks in at 55.2 on our ratings and is trained by Peter Eurton, who has a reputation for having horses sharp on debut. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and Danny Sheehy has been active and competitive on the Ellis circuit. In a race where no one has a win and chaos is always possible, She's Our Girl's rating and connections make her a reasonable show play and a key piece in trifecta tickets.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A big, sprawling 12-horse dirt claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite isn't the top-rated horse — our numbers flip the script and point to a legitimate overlay at 6/1.
McIlroy is our top play here at 6/1 on the morning line despite owning the field's best TrackWiz rating at 82.71. Trained by Steven M. Asmussen and ridden by Erik Asmussen, this is a barn that knows how to spot a horse in the right spot. An avg speed figure of 54 puts him right in the mix at six furlongs, and a 8% career win rate doesn't tell the full story — our model sees something here that the morning line undervalues. This is a value play in the truest sense.
Proctor Phantom is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, which tells you the public respects this one too — a TrackWiz rating of 67.4 backs that up. Trainer Norm W. Casse and Ramon A. Vazquez team up on a horse with a 14% career win rate and a consistent avg speed of 55. Even if McIlroy edges him at the wire, Proctor Phantom's class and reliability make him a near-lock for the exacta.
Tip Toe Joe might be the sleeper of the card at 12/1. With a TrackWiz rating of 58.45 — third best in this field — and an avg speed of 55 matching the top contenders, trainer Matt Williams sends this one out with legitimate credentials. A 7% career win rate suggests he's been competitive without always closing the deal, but in a race with this much pace pressure from a 12-horse field, a steady closer can find the show spot.
The first three races on the card give us a solid free-play sample — and there's a common thread worth noting. On a dry, warm afternoon at Ellis, early pace tends to get rewarded in sprint distances, and both Race 1 (6½ furlongs) and Race 3 (6 furlongs) set up well for horses that can control or sit just off the lead. Mitty's Griddy opens at 2/1 in Race 1 with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — that's a number that commands respect in a claiming sprint. In Race 3, McIlroy is the overlooked angle at 6/1 morning line with an 82.71 rating; that kind of price on a horse our model genuinely likes is exactly the spot we hunt for.
Race 2 is a one-mile maiden special weight on dirt — a slightly different puzzle — and Fast Gun opens as the 7/5 favorite with the card's second-highest free-race rating at 89.42. Heavy favorites in maiden routes can be tricky, but when the TrackWiz number backs up the morning line, we pay attention. These three races form a clean early sequence if you're thinking about a win parlay or an early Pick 3 ticket.
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Bottom line: Mitty's Griddy, Fast Gun, and McIlroy headline the free plays, and there's a case to be made for each one in the early card. But Wrong Shoes in Race 7 and the value angle on Overstatement in Race 6 are the conversations worth having — and those are waiting for you in the full subscriber breakdown. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart. Unlock the full card here.