Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 16, 2026

August 16, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

This card ran on August 16, 2026.

Results & payouts →Latest Ellis Park picks →

Best bets at Ellis Park, August 16, 2026

Race 19Mitty's GriddyML 2/111:00 AM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 7 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 9, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

Results are in — see the official Ellis Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 9)→

Ellis Park is rolling out a nine-race Sunday card on a warm, partly cloudy afternoon — 86°F at post time with conditions that should keep the main track playing fast. No rain in the picture, which means we're likely looking at a typical summer Ellis dirt surface: firm, speed-friendly, and unforgiving if you draw wide and fall asleep early.

The turf course is also in play across three races today (Races 4, 6, and 9), so if the going is good out there, expect some competitive fields on the grass. With a mix of maiden events, claiming races, and a pair of allowance spots, there's something for every kind of bettor on this card — from straightforward single-race wagers to multi-race exotics with some real teeth.

TrackWiz has ratings on every runner from the jump. Three races are open to all readers, with the full nine-race breakdown available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6.5-furlong dirt claimer with a clear top two in the ratings but a sneaky third horse at a massive price who could steal show money and shake up exacta boxes.

win9Mitty's GriddyML 2/1

Mitty's Griddy lands on top of our ratings with an 88.54 score and comes in with a 20% career win rate — one of the better win percentages in this field. Trainer Joe Sharp puts his horses in position to fire, and Axel Concepcion knows how to exploit pace in a sprint. The morning line of 2/1 reflects the market's respect here, and the avg speed figure of 55 is competitive. This is our top selection and the one to build exotics around.

place1GuardianML 3/1

Guardian draws the rail for Summer Pauly under David Jacobson and posts a strong TrackWiz rating of 80.01 — second best in the field. A 12% career win rate might not jump off the page, but the avg speed of 56 is the highest in the race, suggesting there's raw ability here that could translate into a big effort at 6.5 furlongs. At 3/1 on the morning line, Guardian represents solid place value.

show6SolevoML 12/1

Solevo is the kind of horse that sneaks into the show slot at a price — listed at 12/1 on the morning line but carries a 69.01 TrackWiz rating that puts him well clear of the mid-pack. He's working with trainer Steven M. Asmussen, one of the top conditioners in the country, and Erik Asmussen in the irons keeps it in the family. The 6% career win rate is a concern, but in a race with pace pressure up front, a closer type like Solevo can get a piece at a generous price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

11:25 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile on dirt loaded with first-time starters — nobody has a win to their name, making trainer patterns and raw ratings the primary handicapping tools.

win7Fast GunML 7/5

Fast Gun tops our TrackWiz ratings at 89.42 and draws the attention of the morning line makers at 7/5 — clearly the public agrees. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen has a long track record of sending debut horses out ready to run, and Keith J. Asmussen in the saddle keeps this a tight-knit barn operation. None of these horses have won before, but Fast Gun's rating separation over the field is significant enough to make this a confident top selection.

place5Lady LawML 4/1

Lady Law is our place pick at a very playable 4/1 morning line, with a TrackWiz rating of 79.39 — meaningfully ahead of the rest of the field outside Fast Gun. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a seasoned horseman with routes on dirt, and Luan Machado gets the call. In a full maiden field where the favorite can get troubled early, Lady Law looks like the most logical beneficiary of any scrambling.

show4She's Our GirlML 7/2

She's Our Girl checks in at 55.2 on our ratings and is trained by Peter Eurton, who has a reputation for having horses sharp on debut. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and Danny Sheehy has been active and competitive on the Ellis circuit. In a race where no one has a win and chaos is always possible, She's Our Girl's rating and connections make her a reasonable show play and a key piece in trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The first three races on the card give us a solid free-play sample — and there's a common thread worth noting. On a dry, warm afternoon at Ellis, early pace tends to get rewarded in sprint distances, and both Race 1 (6½ furlongs) and Race 3 (6 furlongs) set up well for horses that can control or sit just off the lead. Mitty's Griddy opens at 2/1 in Race 1 with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — that's a number that commands respect in a claiming sprint. In Race 3, McIlroy is the overlooked angle at 6/1 morning line with an 82.71 rating; that kind of price on a horse our model genuinely likes is exactly the spot we hunt for.

Race 2 is a one-mile maiden special weight on dirt — a slightly different puzzle — and Fast Gun opens as the 7/5 favorite with the card's second-highest free-race rating at 89.42. Heavy favorites in maiden routes can be tricky, but when the TrackWiz number backs up the morning line, we pay attention. These three races form a clean early sequence if you're thinking about a win parlay or an early Pick 3 ticket.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

11:50 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A big, sprawling 12-horse dirt claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite isn't the top-rated horse — our numbers flip the script and point to a legitimate overlay at 6/1.

win8McIlroyML 6/1

McIlroy is our top play here at 6/1 on the morning line despite owning the field's best TrackWiz rating at 82.71. Trained by Steven M. Asmussen and ridden by Erik Asmussen, this is a barn that knows how to spot a horse in the right spot. An avg speed figure of 54 puts him right in the mix at six furlongs, and a 8% career win rate doesn't tell the full story — our model sees something here that the morning line undervalues. This is a value play in the truest sense.

place5Proctor PhantomML 6/5

Proctor Phantom is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, which tells you the public respects this one too — a TrackWiz rating of 67.4 backs that up. Trainer Norm W. Casse and Ramon A. Vazquez team up on a horse with a 14% career win rate and a consistent avg speed of 55. Even if McIlroy edges him at the wire, Proctor Phantom's class and reliability make him a near-lock for the exacta.

show12Tip Toe JoeML 12/1

Tip Toe Joe might be the sleeper of the card at 12/1. With a TrackWiz rating of 58.45 — third best in this field — and an avg speed of 55 matching the top contenders, trainer Matt Williams sends this one out with legitimate credentials. A 7% career win rate suggests he's been competitive without always closing the deal, but in a race with this much pace pressure from a 12-horse field, a steady closer can find the show spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 4

12:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A massive 14-horse maiden turf mile — a classic big-field turf debut puzzle where trainer pedigree and any prior grass work matter more than dirt speed figures.

win2HomeawayfromhomeML 3/1

Homeawayfromhome sits atop our ratings at 56.67 in a field where separation is hard to find, and the morning line of 3/1 makes this one the co-public choice. Trainer Brendan P. Walsh has a strong reputation for getting first-time turf runners ready, and Ben Curtis is an experienced turf hand. An avg speed figure of 57 — highest among horses with recorded figures in this field — suggests this one has the raw ability to handle a one-mile turf trip.

place8Candy PancakesML 9/2

Candy Pancakes comes in at 54.17 on our ratings and draws trainer Brad H. Cox, one of the premier conditioners in the country who consistently produces strong debut turf runners. Florent Geroux takes the mount — a jockey with exceptional feel on grass. The 9/2 morning line offers fair value, and with no speed figure on record, there's intrigue about what this horse might show fresh on a surface its trainer clearly favors.

show10CamphorML 6/1

Camphor at 6/1 is a worth-the-risk show play in a race this deep and unpredictable. Trainer Cherie DeVaux and Axel Concepcion team up on a horse that shares the 51.67 rating with a few others but benefits from connections that know how to place a horse. In a 14-horse turf maiden, the show pool offers real value, and Camphor's connections give this one more upside than the odds suggest.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 5

12:40 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint that sets up as a two-horse show on the ratings, but a double-digit morning-line overlay lurks in the place spot that could deliver serious exotic value.

win7Gorrono RanchML 7/2

Gorrono Ranch heads our selections with a dominant TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — easily the best figure in this maiden claiming field. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen and Erik Asmussen form one of the meet's hottest barn-rider combos, and the avg speed of 55 is best among horses with recorded figures. The 7/2 morning line seems right for a horse of this caliber in this company, and we expect this one to be forwardly placed and hard to catch at six furlongs.

place1Army MedicML 12/1

Army Medic is the value bomb of this race — 12/1 on the morning line but second-best on our ratings at 71.23. That's a massive gap between our numbers and the public's assessment. Trainer Heather Irion sends this one out at a price with Angel Ortega Stanley aboard, and an avg speed figure of 53 shows enough ability to be in the mix. If you're building exotic tickets, Army Medic belongs on every place line at this price.

show11Command the StarsML 5/1

Command the Stars checks in third on our ratings at 62.81 and goes at 5/1 morning line under Fernando De La Cruz for trainer Troy Newton. An avg speed of 54 fits comfortably in this maiden claiming context. With the top two in our ratings pulling clear of the rest, Command the Stars is the most logical fallback option for show and trifecta play — steady enough to find a piece without needing to beat the top pair.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 6

1:05 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

An allowance optional claiming mile and a quarter on turf where the even-money morning-line favorite faces a top-rated challenger at a much friendlier price — pace scenario over a route distance could be decisive.

win6OverstatementML 8/1

Overstatement is our top selection at a very appetizing 8/1 on the morning line despite posting the field's best TrackWiz rating at 78.01. Trainer Kenneth G. Miller and jockey Adam Beschizza team up on a horse with a 15% career win rate and an avg speed of 54. At a mile and a quarter on turf, stamina and pace management matter — Overstatement's rating edge and overlay price make this the play of the race for value-minded bettors.

place3AndthewinnerisML EVN

Andthewinneris goes as the co-morning-line choice near even money and brings a 21% career win rate — best in this short field. The TrackWiz rating of 75.74 is just off Overstatement's mark, and Florent Geroux is an elite turf jockey who navigates long-distance races expertly. If the pace sets up favorably, this one has the class and winning pedigree to go gate-to-wire or make one big move on the far turn.

show1Demolition DukeML 9/2

Demolition Duke rounds out our selections at 9/2 with a 75.09 TrackWiz rating — essentially deadlocked with Andthewinneris. Trainer Michael J. Maker has won at big prices on the turf circuit, and Danny Sheehy keeps this one well-connected. A 9% career win rate is modest, but at a mile and a quarter, a steady-running type that avoids trouble can sneak into the show spot in what looks like a short, competitive field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

1:30 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance at 6.5 furlongs with a heavy favorite at 3/5 — the question isn't whether Wrong Shoes can win, but whether the second and third spots offer enough value to make multi-race exotics worthwhile.

win2Wrong ShoesML 3/5

Wrong Shoes is as dominant a top selection as we'll post all day — a TrackWiz rating of 90.0 is the highest on the card, backed by a 16% career win rate and an avg speed figure of 56. Trainer John Alexander Ortiz puts this one in at 3/5 on the morning line with Axel Concepcion, who is one of the sharpest sprint riders at this meet. There isn't much to debate here — this horse is significantly better than the field on our numbers, and single-race bettors may want to focus on the exotic payouts instead.

place7LockdownyourtownML 4/1

Lockdownyourtown is the clear second choice in our ratings at 81.93 and goes at 4/1 on the morning line under Ramon A. Vazquez for trainer Robertino Diodoro. The 20% career win rate shows this horse knows how to win, and an avg speed of 55 makes the step up from claiming company look manageable. With Wrong Shoes likely on the lead, Lockdownyourtown could stalk and pounce for the place and possibly more.

show5DucatML 20/1

Ducat is our show selection and the biggest surprise on the ticket — listed at 20/1 on the morning line but carrying a 58.59 TrackWiz rating that puts him clearly ahead of several horses in this field. Trainer Shelbi A. Kurtz and jockey Adam Beschizza combine on a horse with a remarkable 28% career win rate — highest in the race outside of Belle Ofthe Dance. The odds don't reflect the win percentage or the rating, which makes Ducat a compelling exotic value.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

1:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep 12-horse allowance sprint on dirt where two overlays at 6/1 and 5/1 outpoint the shorter-priced horses on our ratings — this race sets up as a high-value exacta opportunity.

win7Air of DefianceML 6/1

Air of Defiance tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and brings the field's best career win percentage at 38% — that combination is nearly impossible to ignore. Trainer S. Jade Cunningham sends this one out with Gabriel Saez in the irons, and an avg speed figure of 56 ties with several top horses in the field. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is our best overlay of the race and one of the stronger value plays on today's card.

place12Show TimeML 5/1

Show Time sits second in our ratings at 78.16 and owns a 31% career win rate — another horse who consistently finds the winner's circle. Trainer David Jacobson and jockey Rafael Bejarano team up on a horse with an avg speed of 56. At 5/1, Show Time is not exactly a longshot, but the combination of a strong win rate, competitive speed figures, and proven connections makes this the most reliable place selection on the ticket.

show2Embry ShowML 4/1

Embry Show comes in third on our ratings at 70.0 and goes at 4/1 in the morning line under Florent Geroux for trainer Bob Baffert. A 25% career win rate and an avg speed of 56 put this one squarely in contention. In a competitive allowance field, Baffert's horses routinely run to or above their figures, and Geroux's clock management in 6-furlong sprints is excellent — this one makes perfect sense as the show component of the top-three ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 9

2:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden claiming turf route at 1 1/16 miles where our ratings deliver a decisive top selection, but two 8/1 shots land in the place and show spots — this race is built for trifecta players.

win11Birch RunML 9/2

Birch Run heads our ratings convincingly at 84.9 — a rating that stands well above the rest of the field in this maiden claiming turf field. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. rides for trainer Paul J. McGee, and an avg speed of 54 is solid for a turf route at this level. The 9/2 morning line gives you some value on what our model considers a clear top selection, and the combination of a top jockey and a horse with obvious ability makes this one a confident play.

place3Risky WaveML 8/1

Risky Wave brings a 76.67 TrackWiz rating and goes at 8/1 on the morning line — that price relative to the number represents real value. Trainer George R. Arnold II and Gabriel Saez combine on a horse with an avg speed of 53 on the turf. In maiden claiming turf routes, the ability to settle and finish is everything, and Risky Wave's rating and capable connections make this one a strong place play at a generous price.

show4Great Kerry LeeML 8/1

Great Kerry Lee is our show selection at 8/1 — identical morning-line odds to Risky Wave — and posts a 74.17 TrackWiz rating for trainer Victoria H. Oliver and jockey Mario Gutierrez. An avg speed of 53 matches Risky Wave's figure, and Gutierrez is a proven turf rider with excellent feel for route races. The trifecta combining Birch Run over Risky Wave and Great Kerry Lee represents strong value given two 8/1 shots landing in the exotic spots.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Mitty's Griddy, Fast Gun, and McIlroy headline the free plays, and there's a case to be made for each one in the early card. But Wrong Shoes in Race 7 and the value angle on Overstatement in Race 6 are the conversations worth having — and those are waiting for you in the full subscriber breakdown. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart. Unlock the full card here.

← All Ellis Park picks & predictions