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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 15, 2026

August 15, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

It's a gorgeous Saturday at Ellis Park — clear skies, 87°F, and a fast dirt track that rewards horses who can get out and run. Conditions like these are a handicapper's best friend: consistent footing means speed figures translate cleanly and pace scenarios play out the way the data suggests they should.

We've got a full nine-race card on tap, mixing dirt sprints, a pair of turf routes, and conditions ranging from maiden claimers all the way up to allowance company. There's something for every kind of bettor today, whether you're firing singles or building multi-race sequences.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers — no subscription required. The remaining six are part of our full premium card breakdown, where we dig into pace projections, exotic angles, and the kind of connective tissue that turns a good day at the windows into a great one.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep claiming field at six furlongs with multiple contenders bunched near the top of the ratings — this one figures to be competitive right to the wire, with pace pressure likely from several directions.

win5Maclean's LullabyML 4/1

Maclean's Lullaby tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62, a clear edge over the rest of this claiming field, and at 4/1 on the morning line there's still some juice here. Trainer Cipriano Contreras sends her out with jockey Evin A. Roman, and the combination of a field-best rating and an average speed figure of 54 suggests she's been running consistently against this caliber. A low career win percentage of 4% sounds alarming, but in claiming company what matters most is the underlying performance quality — and her ratings number says she belongs at the top.

place11DiagramML 3/1

Diagram (No. 11) sits just a tick behind at 75.40 on the TrackWiz scale and carries the morning-line favoritism at 3/1, which tells you the market respects this one too. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a proven commodity in the mid-South circuit, and with Axel Concepcion aboard this horse has a capable pilot who can navigate traffic in a busy field. At short odds she may not offer great win value, but she's a logical place anchor in the exotics.

show1What's Her NumberML 9/2

What's Her Number draws the rail with Gabriel Saez up and carries a solid 74.38 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. She's been win-shy at just 5% across her career, but her profile fits a horse that hits the board regularly without always closing the deal, which is exactly the profile you want in a show bet or underneath in exactas.

Race 2

3:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming sprint, and most of this field is working off limited or no recorded speed data — that makes the horses who have actually shown something in the mornings or on the track stand out sharply.

win1ZimomoML 8/1

Zimomo earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 and backs it up with an average speed figure of 56 — highest among horses with recorded figures in this race. Trainer Kelsey Danner and jockey Yedsit Hazlewood team up from the rail, a compact and dangerous combo in a sprint. At 8/1 on the morning line, this represents genuine value given the ratings edge — that's a price worth playing.

place4Mr. FeteML 6/1

Mr. Fete is essentially a dead heat with Zimomo in the ratings at 79.53, which tells you our analysis sees two horses well clear of the field. Trainer John Ennis sends him out with Danny Sheehy up, and an average speed figure of 54 shows he's been doing real work. If Zimomo runs into any trouble at the gate from the rail, Mr. Fete at 6/1 is the horse most likely to capitalize.

show2King CrusherML 5/2

King Crusher is the morning-line co-favorite at 5/2 with trainer George Weaver — a respected barn — and jockey Gabriel Saez, one of the best riders on the grounds. His TrackWiz rating of 60.81 is third-best and he's clocked an average speed figure of 55, which is encouraging. He's the likeliest to go off as the public choice, so use him as a safe show option while looking for value in the win and place slots.

Race 3

3:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves at the top of the ratings in this claiming sprint — Quinn's Promise and No Time Left are nearly inseparable on paper, setting up a potential battle between them while the rest of the field scrambles for thirds.

win4Quinn's PromiseML 9/2

Quinn's Promise (No. 4) edges out the top TrackWiz rating at 84.90 and gets the added boost of Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. in the irons — one of the most accomplished jockeys in the region. Trainer Kinnon LaRose sends her out at 9/2, which looks like a price the market might underestimate given she rates highest in the field. A 7% career win rate on paper might give pause, but the speed figure base of 53 is consistent and her overall rating suggests she's been competitive in tougher company.

place2No Time LeftML 4/1

No Time Left (No. 2) is barely a rounding error behind at 84.62 and actually shows the top average speed figure of 55 — a tick better than Quinn's Promise. Trainer Matt Williams has her pointed at a race she can win, and at 4/1 she's got a legitimate case for the top spot herself. Use her confidently in exacta boxes with the top pick.

show9Poppy WoppyML 7/2

Poppy Woppy draws the 7/2 morning line and sits third in the ratings at 77.35, trained by Steven M. Asmussen — a barn that knows how to place horses to win. Erik Asmussen rides and the 20% career win percentage is the best among the top contenders, suggesting this horse has a knack for converting. She's a natural show play and fits well in trifecta combinations.

Our three free best bets today are spread across the early races on the card — all dirt sprints at six furlongs, which is exactly the kind of uniform condition that lets our speed figure models do their best work. On a fast, sunny track like Ellis is showing today, early pace will be critical in these short sprints, and horses that can grab a clean stalking position without burning energy in a speed duel are going to have a real edge.

Maclean's Lullaby opens the card in Race 1 with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the highest of the three free picks — and comes in at a fair 4/1 on the morning line. Race 2 features Zimomo as an intriguing 8/1 shot in the maiden claimer; that kind of price in a field of horses who haven't figured it out yet is exactly where value hides. Quinn's Promise rounds out the free slate in Race 3 with an 84.90 rating and a 9/2 morning line that suggests the market isn't fully sold — our numbers like her more than that.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

4:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf going a mile — with 14 runners and a spread-out morning line, there's no clear standout and the race sets up as a prime spot to find value in the middle of the pack.

win12Take Charge BeachML 8/1

Take Charge Beach (No. 12) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 68.52 in a field where separating contenders is genuinely difficult, and she's one of the few with an average speed figure on record — clocking 54 on the grass. Trainer Genaro Garcia and jockey Amir Mendoza team up at 8/1, which represents excellent value if the ratings edge holds up. In a wide-open maiden turf field, taking the top-rated horse at twice the morning-line favorite's odds is exactly the kind of spot where TrackWiz analysis can pay off.

place14FerrousML 3/1

Ferrous (No. 14) draws the morning-line favoritism at 3/1 alongside Bold Speaker, and trainer Rodolphe Brisset is well-regarded with turf runners — this barn knows the grass game. A TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and an average speed figure of 52 from prior starts gives him a form foundation, and Ramon A. Vazquez is a savvy pilot for a debut-style turf route. Place him confidently underneath Take Charge Beach.

show9Market ClosedML 7/2

Market Closed (No. 9) opens at 7/2 and earns a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — second-best among the legitimate contenders. Trainer Mark E. Casse is one of the elite turf conditioners in North America, and Florent Geroux is a high-percentage jockey who excels in these one-mile turf spots. Without a published speed figure it's hard to know exactly what he's done in the mornings, but the connections alone make him worth including in your show pool and exotics.

Race 5

4:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Campobasso opens as the heavy 7/5 morning-line favorite in this maiden special weight sprint, but our TrackWiz analysis tells a different story — the public may be overvaluing the name while the real edge sits at a much friendlier price.

win4DontworryboutnothnML 5/1

Dontworryboutnothn (No. 4) leads all comers with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — 25 points clear of the favorite — and backs it up with the co-best average speed figure of 56 in the field. Trainer David Jacobson and jockey Yedsit Hazlewood team up at 5/1 morning line, which looks like the value play of the day in this race. When our top-rated horse in a maiden sprint is going off at more than three times the odds of the public choice, that's a situation worth noting.

place7Great MomentML 8/1

Great Moment (No. 7) sits second in the ratings at 70.08 and also shows a 56 average speed figure, matching the top horses stride-for-stride in pure speed. Trainer Gregory D. Foley keeps the barn active and Edgar Morales has been a reliable presence in the jockey colony. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is a horse with legitimate place upside at a price that could pay well.

show9CampobassoML 7/5

Yes, Campobasso is the favorite at 7/5 — trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Florent Geroux are hard to dismiss even in a maiden sprint. A 56 average speed figure ties the top horses in the field, and the Baffert barn has a well-documented history of winning at big prices and heavy odds alike. Use him in the show spot and in exacta wheels, but don't let the short price make you overlook the better value sitting above him in the ratings.

Race 6

5:05 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Sweet Kaufy enters this allowance optional claiming turf sprint as the class of the field on paper and in the ratings — but a few interesting underneath options at double-digit odds make the exotics worth building carefully.

win1Sweet KaufyML 9/2

Sweet Kaufy (No. 1) is the standout here — an 84.90 TrackWiz rating that tops the field by a wide margin, combined with a 50% career win percentage that very few horses at any level can match. Trainer Wesley A. Ward is arguably the best short-turf trainer in North America, consistently producing winners in exactly this kind of sprint turf spot. The 57 average speed figure is also tops in the field, and at 9/2 you're getting a legitimate overlay on what looks like the most accomplished horse in the race.

place4Insightful MissML 8/1

Insightful Miss (No. 4) brings a 73.50 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and a 29% career win rate that reflects genuine competitiveness. Trainer Jason G. Cook has her set up with Rafael Bejarano in the saddle, and the 56 average speed figure shows she's been running close to the top horses on the turf. At 8/1 on the morning line, she's a real value play for place money and a natural exacta partner with Sweet Kaufy.

show3Wisconsin GalML 8/1

Wisconsin Gal (No. 3) matches Insightful Miss with a 70.15 TrackWiz rating and also clocks a 56 average speed figure — she's right in the mix on pure performance metrics. Trainer Phillip Capuano and jockey Jeiron Barbosa are a functional combo, and at 8/1 she offers the same attractive odds as the place pick. If the top two run 1-2, Wisconsin Gal is the most likely candidate to complete the trifecta.

Race 7

5:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Zambezi is far from a lock here — our TrackWiz ratings flip the script entirely, with two horses rated significantly above the 9/5 chalk at prices that make the exacta and trifecta especially attractive.

win9Social HourML 8/1

Social Hour (No. 9) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 79.18 and opens at 8/1 — that's the kind of gap between public opinion and analytical opinion that handicappers dream about. Trainer David Jacobson gets Yedsit Hazlewood aboard, and the 55 average speed figure in a 6.5-furlong dirt race is solid. A 16% career win rate is respectable in claiming company, and if this horse runs to his rating number, the morning-line favorite won't see which way he went.

place8Ship Ship HoorayML 10/1

Ship Ship Hooray (No. 8) is right behind at 76.88 in the ratings with a 27% career win percentage — best among the top three contenders — and draws Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. for trainer Sarah E. Shaffer. The 56 average speed figure is best in the field, which matters in a sprint. At 10/1 on the morning line, this is a horse that could easily run first or second, making the place bet a genuine value play.

show1ZambeziML 9/5

Zambezi (No. 1) opens as the 9/5 favorite and trainer Michael J. Maker is a respected name — that's why the public will likely make him even shorter by post time. His 75.45 TrackWiz rating is third in the field and the 54 average speed figure is adequate, so he's certainly not without a chance. We'd use him in the show spot and as the 'cold' leg in trifectas while taking the value with Social Hour and Ship Ship Hooray on top.

Race 8

5:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Two horses — Doctrine and Patrol Squad Six — separate themselves from a wide allowance turf field, setting up a potential one-two punch that makes the exacta between them the centerpiece of any ticket.

win10DoctrineML 4/1

Doctrine (No. 10) posts an 84.10 TrackWiz rating and gets Florent Geroux up for trainer Brad H. Cox — a combination that has produced results at the highest levels of the game. A 20% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure on the turf back up the numbers, and at 4/1 on the morning line he's reasonably priced for a horse this well-qualified. Cox is a master at spotting horses in spots they can win, and this one looks like a prime placement.

place3Patrol Squad SixML 6/1

Patrol Squad Six (No. 3) is nearly as compelling at 82.71 in the ratings — just a hair behind Doctrine — with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. riding for Dale L. Romans, another trainer with a strong turf record. The 55 average speed figure matches the top pick, and a 10% career win rate doesn't tell the whole story for a horse working at this class level. At 6/1 he's a legitimate threat to win and an excellent place option.

show5Highly ConnectedML 6/1

Highly Connected (No. 5) checks in at 66.95 in the ratings — third in the field — with trainer Matt Williams pointing him at a spot he can compete in. The 54 average speed figure is a touch below the top two, but with Ramon A. Vazquez up and a 10% career win rate that's consistent, he's a solid show option and a useful third leg in trifectas. At 6/1 he's actually the same price as Patrol Squad Six, so you're getting better value relative to his position in the pecking order.

Race 9

6:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse maiden claiming field on the turf at 5.5 furlongs — with most runners showing zero speed figures and a wide-open morning line, a few horses emerge from the noise with clear form advantages worth exploiting.

win7Lindy CanML 9/2

Lindy Can (No. 7) is a standout in this field with the top TrackWiz rating at 84.90 and an average speed figure of 55 — among the best recorded in the field. Trainer Dana Hancock sends her out with Summer Pauly up, and at 9/2 on the morning line you're getting a fair price on the most analytically supported runner in a tricky race. In a maiden turf field where most rivals have little to show, Lindy Can's numbers stand tall.

place5Princess JulieML 5/1

Princess Julie (No. 5) rates second in this field at 72.77 with a 55 average speed figure and draws Walter A. Rodriguez for trainer Eric N. Foster — a functional pairing in a maiden spot. The separation between her and most of the rest of the field is meaningful, and at 5/1 she's an attractive price for a horse with legitimate place upside. Stack her underneath Lindy Can in exactas.

show4Waiting for YouML 3/1

Waiting for You (No. 4) opens at 3/1 — shortest price in the field — and earns a 56.67 TrackWiz rating with a 55 average speed figure. Trainer George R. Arnold II sends her out with Ramon A. Vazquez, and the market clearly respects this one even if our ratings put her third. She's the public's choice and a safe show bet, but the real value in this race is above her at longer prices.

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Bottom line: Ellis Park is in ideal shape today, and the early dirt sprints give us three clean, data-backed best bets to get the day started — Maclean's Lullaby, Zimomo, and Quinn's Promise are all worth a look at their current morning lines. If you want the full picture — pace angles, exotic tickets, and every premium pick through the closer — the complete nine-race card breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Head to TrackWiz Premium and let's have a day.

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