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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 14, 2026

August 14, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

It's a scorcher at Ellis Park this Friday — clear skies, 92°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward speed right out of the gate. Nine races are on the board today, mixing dirt sprints and routes with a trio of turf tests, giving bettors plenty of angles to work across the full card.

The heat is worth keeping in mind. Hot, dry conditions at Ellis tend to keep the dirt surface firm and true, which historically favors horses that can get to the lead early and hold on. On the turf, the grass should be playing firm as well — so watch for closers who can handle a quicker pace scenario on the green.

TrackWiz has broken down all nine races, and there's genuine value hiding across this card — including a couple of longshots in the double-digit morning line range that our ratings say deserve a much closer look.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open claiming mile on the dirt with a clear ratings gap at the top — but the morning line tells a different story, making this a race where value and form diverge sharply.

win3Refined DesignML 8/1

Refined Design lands on top of our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 — a significant margin over the rest of this field — and Gabriel Saez is one of the sharper pilots on the Ellis Park circuit. At 8/1 on the morning line, the market is dramatically underestimating this horse compared to what the numbers suggest, which is exactly the kind of overlay we love. With an average speed figure of 52 matching several rivals, the edge here is overall form quality rather than raw speed alone. If Saez can get a clean trip in traffic around the one-mile route, this is a prime value play.

place6Midnight VengeanceML 7/2

Midnight Vengeance is the morning-line second choice at 7/2 and backs it up with a solid TrackWiz rating of 74.30 — second-best in the field. Ben Curtis takes the mount, and the 7% career win rate is modest, but the overall profile suggests a horse that hits the board more often than it tops it, making a place ticket look smart here. At a realistic price, this one belongs in your exotics.

show8Surfin' MML 4/1

Surfin' M comes in at 4/1 on the morning line with a rating of 67.95 — third-best in the field and a legitimate threat to complete the board. Cristian A. Torres is an active, capable rider and the horse's average speed of 51 is the lowest among our top three picks, so the best-case scenario here is a stalker trip that sets up a late run. Include in trifectas but temper win expectations.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint that belongs to the heavy favorites on paper, but with an all-maiden field showing zero career wins across the board, upset potential is always lurking at the six-furlong distance.

win4Valentine EveML 2/1

Valentine Eve is the clear top selection here — a TrackWiz rating of 78.64 that towers above the rest of this maiden field, and a 2/1 morning line that confirms the market agrees. The Steven M. Asmussen barn sends out Keith J. Asmussen in the irons, keeping it in the family and adding a sharp tactical edge. The average speed figure of 53 ties for best in the field, and in a maiden sprint, that raw pace can be the deciding factor. This is as close to a confident play as you'll find in a maiden claiming race.

place3Southern WayML 4/1

Southern Way draws the Rodolphe Brisset barn and Cristian A. Torres in the saddle — a combination that carries real weight at Ellis Park. The 55.00 rating is second-best in the field and the 4/1 morning line offers fair value for a horse that projects as a serious place threat against this group. In a maiden race where chaos is always possible, having a second opinion on the board is smart money management.

show6Grace MarieML 9/2

Grace Marie represents the Brad H. Cox barn, and that trainer name alone deserves attention even at 9/2 odds. The 54.17 rating is nearly identical to Southern Way's, making her a genuine contender in a tight middle tier of this field. Luan Machado gets the call and the horse's average speed of 52 is competitive — use her underneath in trifectas as a reliable board-hitter.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse maiden optional claiming mile on the turf — with nearly every entrant showing no career wins and a tight ratings cluster through the middle of the field, trainer and connections become the tiebreaker.

win7Donie MaronieML 3/1

Donie Maronie tops our TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 in a field where separation is hard to find, and the Mark E. Casse barn is one of the most respected operations in North American racing. Cristian A. Torres is in the irons, a rider who thrives on turf routes, and the average speed figure of 56 is tied for best in the race alongside Just Liberty. At 3/1, the morning line is fair — this isn't a screaming overlay, but the combination of top rating, elite trainer, and capable jockey makes Donie Maronie the most defensible win play in a tricky race.

place2Que SeraML 4/1

Que Sera draws Ben Curtis and the Eddie Kenneally barn at 4/1 — a trainer who knows how to spot a horse in the right spot on the grass. The 55.00 rating is just a tick below Donie Maronie's, and in a field this competitive, that gap is negligible. Curtis is an experienced hand on turf routes and should find a clean trip from post 2. A place ticket here is solid construction for your exotics.

show8Doctor ApprovedML 5/1

Doctor Approved sits third in our ratings at 53.33 and comes in at a reasonable 5/1 morning line with Axel Concepcion aboard for the W. Bret Calhoun stable. The average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this group, and Calhoun has a track record of placing maiden turf horses in spots where they can earn checks. A show ticket or trifecta inclusion makes sense in a wide-open race like this.

Our three free races today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a solid early-card foundation. Refined Design opens the card in the 1-mile dirt claiming at a juicy 8/1 morning line. At that price, with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, this is exactly the kind of overlooked value play that can set your day up right. In Race 2, maiden claimer Valentine Eve comes in as the 2/1 morning line choice and backs it up with strong underlying numbers — a confident top pick in a notoriously tricky race type. Race 3 shifts to the turf for a 1-mile Maiden Optional Claiming, where Donie Maronie draws our top selection at 3/1. The rating of 56.67 reflects genuine uncertainty here — maiden turf routes can be unpredictable — but the pace setup and surface switch angles are worth considering.

One thread connecting these early picks: on a hot, fast-track day like today, don't overthink the dirt races. Horses that break sharp and establish position early have a built-in edge. For the turf opener in Race 3, stay alert to first-time grass runners — Ellis's turf course has historically been kind to debut turf starters from the right barns.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The ratings in this maiden claiming sprint on the dirt are eye-opening — three horses are clustered at the very top with a significant drop-off to the rest, setting up a likely top-heavy finish if the favorites run to form.

win7BienvilleML 7/2

Bienville is the standout on TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 — the highest mark in the race and one of the stronger numbers we've seen on today's card. The Steven M. Asmussen barn sends out Erik Asmussen at 7/2, and Asmussen conditions maiden winners at an elite rate. This is a horse the barn clearly believes in based on the morning line, and the TrackWiz rating suggests the confidence is well-founded. In a 13-horse maiden field, fading this one would take a compelling reason — and we don't see one.

place4TelecasterML 6/1

Telecaster is worth serious consideration at 6/1 with a rating of 77.00 — second-best in the field and a horse that brings a 55 average speed figure to the table. William Antongeorgi III gets the mount for trainer Hutch Holsapple, and the price is generous for a horse with this level of credentials. If Bienville has any hiccup, Telecaster looks like the most logical beneficiary.

show2HellaciousML 8/1

Hellacious rounds out our top three at a 67.75 rating and 8/1 morning line — genuine value for a horse that profiles as a legitimate board threat. Gabriel Saez takes the mount for Niccolo Troiani, and the average speed of 54 is right in the mix. In a deep field with longshots sprinkled throughout, Hellacious is the kind of 8/1 show play that keeps trifectas alive without breaking the bank.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

This turf mile claiming race has a clear class standout at the top of the ratings, but the pace scenario is crowded with horses that want to run from off the pace — the scenario should set up beautifully for closers.

win9GalatinaML 3/1

Galatina tops the field with an 82.78 TrackWiz rating and comes in at 3/1 — fair odds for the top-rated horse but not an outrageous favorite price either. Gabriel Saez is an excellent choice for this type of turf route, and the Joe Sharp barn is adept at placing horses in the right spots. The 54 average speed figure is second-best in this field, and while the 6% career win rate is modest, the overall form profile suggests a horse whose best days are trending upward. This is a confident top pick.

place2Never Really KnowML 6/1

Never Really Know brings a 71.08 rating and a 16% career win rate — the latter is one of the stronger marks in this field among mid-tier contenders. Cristian A. Torres aboard for the Norm W. Casse barn is a live combination, and the 6/1 morning line represents genuine value against a horse whose rating is second-best in the race. A horse with a 16% career win percentage is hitting the board far more often, making a place ticket very attractive.

show3SussudioML 5/1

Sussudio rates third at 61.65 and comes in at 5/1 for trainer Jeff A. Hiles with Adam Beschizza up. The 53 average speed figure matches several rivals, and a 12% career win rate suggests board consistency. In a full field turf route where the pace could get hot early, a closer like Sussudio has the profile to sweep up late and nail the show position.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A massive 16-horse maiden special weight sprint on the dirt — the kind of race where big fields can scramble pace scenarios and produce surprising prices, even as two or three horses hold a clear edge on the ratings.

win9SomnambulistML 10/1

Somnambulist is our top selection at a 76.88 rating and 10/1 odds — a genuine overlay in a field where the morning line has undervalued the horse substantially. Adam Beschizza gets the mount for trainer Kelsey Danner, and in a 16-horse field of first-time or lightly-raced maidens, having the top rating at double-digit odds is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis is built to find. The average speed figure of 53 is in the middle of the pack, meaning this horse's edge comes from overall form quality and preparation rather than pure raw speed. This is a strong value play in a chaotic race.

place12Moona LisaML 7/2

Moona Lisa brings the Bob Baffert barn and Florent Geroux to the table at 7/2 — a combination that commands respect in any maiden sprint. The 55.83 rating is second-best in the field and the 55 average speed figure is among the best recorded here. Baffert maiden debuts and second-starts often run into the money even when they don't win, making a place ticket on Moona Lisa a very comfortable bet.

show5Love DivineML 9/2

Love Divine represents Steven M. Asmussen with Keith J. Asmussen riding at 9/2 — another in-barn combo that has shown a sharp understanding of pace and positioning in maiden sprints. The 54.17 rating and 54 average speed figure are both solid, and Asmussen operations typically have their horses fit and ready to run. In a 16-horse field with a lot of unknowns, a show ticket on a well-prepared horse from a top barn is a smart exotic anchor.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A deep 14-horse turf claiming route with a wide spread in the ratings — two horses genuinely separate themselves from the pack while the rest of the field battles for supporting roles.

win4RulookinforrayrayML 5/1

Rulookinforrayray tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 in what is otherwise a competitive but beatable field, and Edgar Morales gets the call for Thomas Drury Jr. at 5/1. The average speed figure of 54 is right in the competitive zone for this group, but the significant ratings gap over even the second-best horse (Da Prince Is Right at 78.87) suggests a horse whose overall form profile is a cut above this company. A 6% career win rate is low, but on turf routes where pace and trip matter, talent often shows up in the money column even when wins are elusive.

place5Da Prince Is RightML 9/2

Da Prince Is Right is a fascinating play at 9/2 — a 20% career win rate that is genuinely strong for a claiming turf horse, and a TrackWiz rating of 78.87 that makes him the clear second choice on our numbers. Florent Geroux is one of the best turf riders in the region and Michael J. Maker has a knack for placing horses in spots where they can earn. A place ticket here is as comfortable as anything on the card.

show2Gallic CharmML 6/1

Gallic Charm brings a 25% career win rate — the highest among our top three picks — and a 72.08 rating that puts him solidly in the picture at 6/1. Gerardo Corrales rides for Ismael Bahena, and the 54 average speed figure matches the competitive mark set by several rivals. With a career win percentage that suggests genuine ability to get to the wire first, a show ticket at 6/1 odds has excellent risk-reward.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The allowance optional claiming route at 6.5 furlongs on the dirt features some of the strongest speed figures on today's card — and a legitimate battle brewing between two horses whose ratings are nearly identical at the top.

win8DreaminblueML 3/1

Dreaminblue leads the field with a remarkable 87.08 TrackWiz rating and checks in as the 3/1 morning-line favorite — a horse the market and our numbers agree on, which doesn't always happen. Rafael Bejarano rides for Randy L. Morse, and the 20% career win rate is solid in an allowance optional claiming field. The 56 average speed figure ties for second-best in the race, and at 6.5 furlongs, that kind of raw pace paired with top-end form quality is a dangerous combination. This is our most confident selection of the card.

place10Here Mi SongML 5/1

Here Mi Song rolls in with an 80.03 rating and a 22% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentages in the race — at 5/1 for Edgar Morales and William Stinson Jr. The 56 average speed figure is tied for best in the race, and a horse that wins 22% of the time across a career is a consistent performer. If Dreaminblue has any trouble at all, Here Mi Song is perfectly positioned to steal the win, making a place ticket excellent value.

show6AutodriveML 8/1

Autodrive is the most intriguing number in this field — a 60% career win rate that is genuinely extraordinary, even accounting for small sample size possibilities. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount for W. Bret Calhoun, and the 78.41 rating is third-best in the field. The 57 average speed figure is the best recorded in the race, suggesting raw talent that could easily break through at 8/1. In an allowance field, a horse with this win rate and speed figure is worth a show ticket and a spot in every exotic combination.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A 14-horse maiden claiming route on the turf to close out the Ellis Park card — and while the top-rated horse carries a significant price, the ratings structure here makes a strong case for an unusual top-three finish.

win11RockfestML 10/1

Rockfest tops our ratings at 76.88 and comes in at 10/1 — a substantial overlay for the highest-rated horse in the field. Walter A. Rodriguez rides for James P. DiVito, and the 55 average speed figure is tied for best in the race alongside Waittilnextyear and Pursuit of Freedom. In maiden turf routes, form quality and turf breeding often matter more than morning-line positioning, and Rockfest's rating gap over the field is significant enough to make this one of the stronger value plays on the card. At 10/1, this is the kind of price that pays for a losing day if it hits.

place3Mr. All InML 6/1

Mr. All In rates second at 66.61 with Jaime A. Torres aboard for W. Bret Calhoun — a trainer who runs two horses in this race (also Road Trippin in the 1-hole), suggesting real stable depth here. The 54 average speed figure is competitive, and at 6/1 on the morning line, the price is attractive for the second-rated horse in the field. Calhoun knows this circuit and knows how to position horses for board finishes in turf routes.

show13WaittilnextyearML 15/1

Waittilnextyear is the most intriguing price play among our picks at 15/1 — a 64.43 rating that is third-best in the field and a 55 average speed figure that ties for the top mark in the race. Luan Machado rides for Conor Murphy, and horses that show this kind of speed figure at 15/1 in maiden claiming turf races deserve serious exotic consideration. This is a speculative play, but the numbers support inclusion in trifectas and superfectas as a live longshot.

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Bottom line: Ellis Park is serving up nine competitive races on a clear, fast-track afternoon. Refined Design is our marquee free value play at 8/1, Valentine Eve is the confident chalk pick in Race 2, and Dreaminblue headlines the premium card with the day's top TrackWiz rating. Unlock the full nine-race breakdown — including pace projections and exotic tickets — with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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