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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 9, 2026

August 9, 202610 racesAll Ellis Park picks

It's a big Sunday at Ellis Park. Ten races are on the board, the skies are clear, the temperature is sitting at a comfortable 85°F, and the main track should be playing fast all afternoon. That's a recipe for sharp speed figures and plenty of pace-on-pace battles — exactly the kind of card where preparation pays off.

What makes today special is the stakes-heavy afternoon. Six of the ten races carry stakes conditions, including a stretch of five consecutive stakes races from Race 4 through Race 9. That's as deep a stretch of graded and ungraded stakes action as Ellis Park sees all summer, and our TrackWiz analysis has been locked in on this card since the entries hit.

The first three races — including two Maiden Special Weights and an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint on the turf — are fully unlocked for every reader. From Race 4 onward, the card gets serious, and so does our coverage.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse maiden turf sprint that leans heavily on trainer pedigree — several first-out runners from elite barns make this one genuinely hard to pin down, but our ratings separate a clear top tier from the chaos.

win11GroundswellML 7/2

Groundswell (11) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 and lands in the care of Hall of Fame conditioner Mark Casse, one of the sharpest turf trainers in the country. The 7/2 morning line is fair given the field size, but if Casse has this one ready to fire first out, that price could look generous at post time. Cristian A. Torres gets the call, giving connections a capable pilot who knows how to place a horse on the grass. In a wide-open maiden, getting the top-rated horse from a top turf barn at a reasonable price is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz targets.

place9Pretty GoodML 4/1

Pretty Good (9) rates just a hair below Groundswell at 55.00 and comes out of the Bob Baffert barn with Florent Geroux up — a jockey-trainer pairing that consistently delivers in short-priced spots. The 4/1 morning line makes this one of the more logical alternatives for place-ticket coverage, particularly if the Casse runners split votes in the wagering pools.

show3Phantom FlashML 5/1

Phantom Flash (3) checks in at a 53.33 TrackWiz rating under trainer Michael J. Maker, who has a strong regional record placing first-out juveniles in the money. At 5/1 on the morning line, this one offers real show-ticket value and belongs in any multi-horse exotics underneath the top pair.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A 15-horse maiden dirt sprint where trainer power separates the contenders — Brendan Walsh fires two shots, Brad Cox has a live one, and the morning line is all over the map in a field where several runners lack published works.

win12CodifiedML 7/2

Codified (12) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 55.83 and represents Brendan Walsh, a trainer who routinely brings debut runners to the gate ready to run their best. Ben Curtis is an underrated booking in this spot — he's comfortable rating horses and letting them finish, which suits a seven-furlong test perfectly. With no published speed figure to anchor skeptics, the 7/2 morning line could drift, making any late money on this horse meaningful.

place5I'mgunningforyouML 9/2

I'mgunningforyou (5) rates at 54.17 for Brad Cox, who is among the elite debut trainers in the country. Mario Gutierrez inherits the mount, and at 9/2 on the line, this is the kind of Cox first-timer that needs to be on your radar — the barn rarely sends horses to the gate without a reason to believe.

show10Rye WarriorML 6/1

Rye Warrior (10) is one of the few horses in the field that has shown us something, posting an avg speed figure of 54 while Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. gets the mount for Ian Wilkes — a solid regional pairing. At 6/1, this one rates as a legitimate show-ticket inclusion and a possible place threat if the top two scratch and run each other into the ground.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The allowance optional claimer on the turf features a field of experienced runners, and one horse has pulled away from the pack on our ratings board by a significant margin — sharp pace scenario sets up for a front-running or pace-pressing winner.

win3Rose RulerML 4/1

Rose Ruler (3) is the standout in this field with a commanding TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — the highest by a meaningful margin over the second-ranked horse. A 33% career win rate is elite for any allowance-level runner, and the 57 avg speed figure shows consistency at a class level above some of these rivals. Danny Sheehy gets the mount for Michael J. Maker, whose grass horses at 5½ furlongs are always worth respecting. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is our clear top choice and a strong best-bet candidate.

place10Step ForwardML 3/1

Step Forward (10) rates second in the field at 66.24 for Mark Casse, who doubles up in this race with two runners — always a barn to respect when they wheel out multiple entrants in the same field. The 17% career win rate is modest, but avg speed of 57 and a 3/1 morning line suggests the connections believe this one runs well in the place position at minimum. Axel Concepcion aboard gives this horse a strong tactical rider for the short turf sprint.

show7Mischievous RogueML 9/2

Mischievous Rogue (7) rates third at 63.11 with a 20% career win rate and an avg speed of 54, sitting a bit below the top pair on pure numbers but interesting at 9/2 on the morning line. Trainer Brittany Vanden Berg has built a reputation for placing horses in spots where they can compete, and Christopher Emigh is a savvy local rider who knows how to find daylight on a short turf course. Use this one underneath in exactas and trifectas.

Our three free races give you a solid foundation for the day. On the turf, Groundswell (R1, 7/2 morning line) and Rose Ruler (R3, 4/1) both headline short turf sprints at 5½ furlongs — a distance where pace scenario and early position tend to be decisive on a firm grass course under afternoon sun like today. Keep an eye on how the turf rail is playing in Race 1; it'll set the tone for Rose Ruler's spot two races later. On the main track, Codified (R2, 7/2) draws your attention in a 7-furlong maiden — a distance that rewards horses with a clean turn and the ability to sustain speed, and Codified's TrackWiz rating of 55.83 is right in line with the top of this maiden field.

The connecting thread across these free picks is value — none of these horses are morning-line favorites, and that's intentional. Ellis Park maiden and lower-level turf fields can be wide open, and backing horses at 7/2 and 4/1 when your numbers support them is exactly how sharp players build their bankroll on days like this.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

A tight seven-furlong dirt stakes where three horses enter undefeated — the pace scenario will be critical with multiple speed-types likely to press each other, setting up a potential late closer or a wire job from the horse that gets the cleanest trip.

win6SalahudinML 2/1

Salahudin (6) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and carries the most powerful trainer-jockey punch in the race — Bob Baffert and Florent Geroux, a combination that simply wins. The 2/1 favorite tag is deserved: a 100% career win rate (though we note small sample sizes in stakes debut situations) paired with the top rating makes this the most logical win play. An avg speed of 54 gives us a baseline, and Baffert's horses typically improve off previous efforts going into a stakes spot.

place4Grand YauponML 5/2

Grand Yaupon (4) rates at 57.50 with a 50% career win rate and an avg speed of 56 — actually the best speed figure in the field. Steven Asmussen sending out a horse with Keith J. Asmussen in the irons is a barn-and-family combination that has delivered results all meet long. At 5/2 on the morning line, Grand Yaupon is the most legitimate pace threat to the favorite and the safest place-ticket anchor if you want to beat Salahudin.

show7Never a DoubtML 4/1

Never a Doubt (7) comes in at a 55.00 rating with a perfect 100% career win rate for trainer Carlos A. David. The 4/1 morning line offers some value for show purposes, and Jaime Torres is a capable hand if the pace collapses in front and this one comes running late. A clean trip from post 7 could set up a big effort.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

Two monsters at the top of the ratings separate themselves from the rest of this stakes mile field — Cash Call and Five a Side look like a two-horse war, and the pace they set for each other could benefit a sneaky closer.

win2Cash CallML 9/5

Cash Call (2) leads all runners with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race by a clear margin — and a 44% career win rate that puts this filly among the most accomplished runners on today's card. Bob Baffert and Florent Geroux reunite here after likely teaming up in race 4, and that kind of trainer-jockey momentum is hard to fade. The 9/5 favorite price reflects real market confidence, and the avg speed figure of 56 is the best in the field. This is our top stakes best bet on the afternoon.

place5Five a SideML 3/1

Five a Side (5) rates a strong 84.37 and looks like the most legitimate rival to Cash Call in the entire field. John Servis has a knack for getting fillies to deliver in big spots, and Jaime Torres brings tactical intelligence to a one-mile setup where pace control could matter. An 18% career win rate belies the quality of races this horse has likely contested — at 3/1, this is a solid place play and an essential component of any vertical exotics.

show3In Just My HeelsML 5/1

In Just My Heels (3) rates at 72.14 with a 23% career win rate for trainer Ron Moquett, and at 5/1 on the morning line, this one rates as the best value in the show position. Yedsit Hazlewood has been a serviceable pilot throughout the meet, and if the top two set a torrid pace at a mile, a closer profile like this one could be running past tired horses in the final furlong.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

Stakes action at seven furlongs on dirt, and Cardio Cat sits atop a field where several runners carry perfect records — this is shaping up as a pace-heavy sprint where the horse with the strongest late kick has a real edge.

win1Cardio CatML 7/2

Cardio Cat (1) leads this field on our TrackWiz ratings with an 86.35 mark — a full 27-plus points clear of the next horse in the ratings. A 33% career win rate is respectable in stakes company, and an avg speed of 55 keeps this one right in the mix on raw ability. Erik Asmussen rides for the powerful Steven Asmussen operation, a barn that is always dialed in for stakes day. The 7/2 morning line represents genuine value given the ratings gap that separates this horse from the rest of the field.

place6Manuka HoneyML 9/5

Manuka Honey (6) rates at 58.67 with a 100% career win rate and avg speed of 56 for trainer Brian Lynch and jockey Luis Saez — one of the most polished jockey-trainer tandems in the region. The 9/5 morning line makes this the market favorite, but our analysis puts Cardio Cat on top — Manuka Honey is a strong place play and should land in the exacta in all likelihood. Don't toss out the perfect record just because our top rating goes elsewhere.

show8Glory RunML 3/1

Glory Run (8) rates at 56.67 with a perfect 100% career win rate for trainer John Ennis and jockey Alex Achard. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is not a traditional show-ticket longshot, but the combination of an unblemished record and a solid avg speed of 55 makes Glory Run a reliable third component in trifecta construction. If Cardio Cat and Manuka Honey go toe-to-toe early, a clean trip from post 8 could be all Glory Run needs.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A compelling six-horse stakes mile where Plutarch sets up as the morning line favorite, but Spun D M C is flying under the radar with a rating that nearly matches the top pick — value hunters should take a long look at this race.

win5PlutarchML 2/1

Plutarch (5) tops our ratings at 84.29 and draws the Baffert-Geroux combo yet again — at this point in the card, that team has been omnipresent and has delivered in previous stakes. A 33% career win rate at the stakes level is competitive, and an avg speed of 54 keeps this one honest on figures. The 2/1 morning line suggests the market agrees, though as a lone favorite at that price in a six-horse stakes, you're not getting much overlay.

place6Spun D M CML 8/1

Spun D M C (6) is a genuine value play that our analysis strongly supports. The rating of 79.79 is only about four and a half points behind the top pick, yet the morning line sits at 8/1 — that's a significant discrepancy worth exploiting. A 40% career win rate and the best avg speed in the field at 56 make this one look underpriced, and Francisco Arrieta is a capable handler if the pace unfolds favorably from the outside post.

show4IgniterML 3/1

Igniter (4) rates at 77.47 with a 42% career win rate and avg speed of 55 for Richard Dutrow Jr. — a trainer who has rebuilt his operation and continues to place horses competitively. Luis Saez takes the mount, giving this one a top-tier rider in a small but quality field. The 3/1 morning line reflects solid market respect, and Igniter belongs in every trifecta construction in this race.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

Stakes seven furlongs on dirt with a nine-horse field that splits into a clear top tier and a wide-open middle — the pace scenario could get contentious, and there's a legitimate value case to be made against the morning line order.

win2Betty's PearlML 7/2

Betty's Pearl (2) leads our ratings at 76.42 with a 22% career win rate and an avg speed of 54 for trainer Brian Lynch. Mario Gutierrez is an experienced hand who has ridden in big spots throughout his career, and a 7/2 morning line reflects balanced market confidence without overloading on juice. Our top rating in a nine-horse stakes field at fair odds is exactly the kind of spot we circle on the card — this is a genuine best-bet play.

place8A Fine ChardonnayML 4/1

A Fine Chardonnay (8) rates at 72.77 with the best career win rate among the top-tier horses at 42%, and Ian Wilkes is a steady presence at Ellis Park who knows how to prepare a horse for a stakes effort. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is a proven stakes rider at this circuit, and the 4/1 morning line gives you a bit of breathing room on the place ticket. The combination of a high win percentage and a strong TrackWiz rating makes this one our preferred exacta partner with Betty's Pearl.

show5Percy's BarML 5/2

Percy's Bar (5) rates at 66.77 with a 33% career win rate for Ben Colebrook, and Luan Machado gets the mount at 5/2 on the morning line — making this technically one of the shorter-priced horses in the field. The avg speed of 54 matches the favorites evenly, and a 33% win rate in what appears to be a competitive stakes record gives this one credibility as a show anchor. Include Percy's Bar in your trifecta if you're willing to accept a modest payout.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

The penultimate stakes race of the night goes a mile on dirt, and our top-rated horse is flying under the radar at 5/1 — this is the best value angle on the entire card for players willing to take a stand against a short-priced morning line favorite.

win6This Is UscarML 5/1

This Is Uscar (6) leads all runners with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — yet opens at 5/1 on the morning line, making it the most undervalued top-rated horse of the day. A 21% career win rate is modest but par for a horse competing at the stakes level in a full field, and an avg speed of 55 matches the field's best. Trainer Jordan Blair and jockey Edgar Morales are a regional pairing that can fly under public radar, and that's precisely why the price is there. This is our top value play of the card.

place2Owen AlmightyML 3/1

Owen Almighty (2) rates at 78.33 for Brian Lynch — a trainer who has sent out multiple stakes performers today — with Luis Saez up at 3/1 on the morning line. A 23% career win rate and avg speed of 55 give this one legitimate credentials, and Lynch-Saez in a stakes mile at Ellis is a combination you simply cannot dismiss. This is the safest place-ticket play in the race for those who want to back off our win pick.

show4Extra AnejoML 4/1

Extra Anejo (4) checks in at 71.88 with a 35% career win rate and avg speed of 55 for Steven Asmussen and Florent Geroux — a combination that has appeared throughout this card with consistent results. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and a 35% career win rate ranks among the better figures in this field. In an eight-horse stakes mile where pace could be a factor all the way to the wire, Geroux is the kind of tactical rider who can conserve energy and pounce late.

Race 10

9:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The closing race is a maiden turf route at 1 1/16 miles with a 13-horse field, and three horses have broken away from the pack on our ratings board — the question is which of the top trio gets the best trip in what could be a chaotic first turn.

win1PaseoML 3/1

Paseo (1) tops this entire race with a commanding 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse in the field by more than six points. Ian Wilkes is a trainer who wins with debut turf routers, and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is one of the meet's leading riders. The 3/1 morning line is fair for the top-rated runner from post 1, though drawing the rail at a mile and a sixteenth on turf can be a mixed blessing depending on the pace setup. Still, the raw rating advantage here is too large to ignore.

place13Eat Hay RunML 7/2

Eat Hay Run (13) is trained by Brendan Walsh, who saddles a second entrant in this race (Sails Up), and rates at 80.66 — the second-highest mark in the field. Ben Curtis also rides for Walsh in this spot, and the trainer-jockey familiarity should result in a polished effort at first asking on turf. The 7/2 morning line is accessible, and an avg speed of 54 gives us a baseline that competes with most of the field.

show2Zero AbsoluteML 9/2

Zero Absolute (2) rates at 79.20 for Philip Bauer with Luis Saez taking the mount — a top-five rider pairing with a well-prepared horse at 9/2 on the morning line. An avg speed of 54 matches Eat Hay Run evenly, and Saez's ability to rate a horse over a one-turn turf mile is a significant tactical asset. Include Zero Absolute in all trifecta and superfecta combinations underneath Paseo.

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Bottom line: this is one of the stronger Sunday cards Ellis Park has put together this summer. The free races give you Groundswell, Codified, and Rose Ruler as your foundation plays — all at fair value on the morning line. The premium stakes sequence from Race 4 through Race 9 is where the day gets made or broken. Subscribers get the full picture: pace, exotics, and every angle. If you're not already on board, check out our plans at TrackWiz Premium and get in before post time. Good luck out there — let's have a day.

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