Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 7, 2026

Friday, August 7, 20269 racesEllis Park

Ellis Park is running a full nine-race card this Friday afternoon, and the conditions are about as friendly as midsummer Kentucky gets — partly cloudy skies, 85°F, and what should be a fast dirt track and firm turf to go with it. That combination matters a lot today, because three of the nine races are carded on the grass, giving turf specialists a real chance to shine.

The card mixes claiming races at the bottom end with a pair of allowance routes and two maiden special weight turf sprints that could feature some lightly raced horses with big ceilings. There's genuine variety here from Race 1 through Race 9 — the kind of card where sharp multi-race wager players can find real value if they know where to look.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all nine races. The first three are on us — free for every reader. Races 4 through 9 are unlocked for subscribers, and trust us, there's plenty worth digging into in that back half of the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open opener at 6 furlongs on the dirt, but one horse carries a TrackWiz rating that blows the field away — the question is whether the form holds up in a race where pace could be contested early.

win6Imperial RulerML 9/2

Imperial Ruler (9/2 ML) carries a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 — the highest in the field by a significant margin — and matches the field's best average speed figure of 55. Mario Gutierrez gets the call here, and this horse looks like the class standout despite a career win percentage that doesn't yet reflect the ability our analysis sees in the numbers. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value for a horse whose rating towers over even the second-best runner. If the pace scenario sets up favorably and Gutierrez can get a clean trip from post 6, this could be a wire-to-wire effort.

place4Good MojoML 7/2

Good Mojo (7/2 ML) checks in with a solid 69.34 TrackWiz rating and draws the 4-hole with Cristian Torres, one of the more active riders at this meet. A 9% career win rate won't blow anyone away, but the rating suggests this horse runs consistently and could be the type to settle into second money in a wide-open claiming field.

show7ImpavidoML 6/1

Impavido (6/1 ML) is interesting as a show hedge — a 66.59 rating that slots in right behind Good Mojo, and the Destin G. Heath barn also saddles Stone County in this race, showing stable confidence in the card. A 16% career win rate gives Impavido legitimate credentials to hit the board, and Gabriel Saez is a capable hand to navigate a potentially chaotic early pace.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Easy Dial looks like a standout at the mile on dirt, but Spectacle and Culprit make this more than a one-horse show — the place and show spots could provide real exacta and trifecta value.

win6Easy DialML 3/1

Easy Dial (3/1 ML) is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the best in the field — and a 25% career win rate that speaks to a horse who fires when conditions are right. The 55 average speed figure also leads the field, and Anna Meah puts Danny Sheehy up, a jockey who should be able to control tempo or rate off a hot pace at a one-turn mile. At the morning line favorite, the price won't be huge, but the form makes this one of the stronger win plays on the card.

place8SpectacleML 5/1

Spectacle (5/1 ML) rates second in this field with a 74.24 TrackWiz score, and Robertino Diodoro is a trainer who consistently puts horses on the board. Cristian Torres takes the mount and comes in off a busy book of rides. The 5/1 morning line on a horse rated this highly screams place value — if Easy Dial goes to the front and weakens late, Spectacle has the profile to mow past tiring horses.

show7CulpritML 4/1

Culprit (4/1 ML) sits just below Spectacle at a 73.08 rating with Francisco Arrieta up for David Jacobson, a trainer who knows how to spot horses correctly at this level. The 12% career win rate is respectable in claiming company, and the one-mile distance over dirt should suit a horse with this kind of steady form. Use Culprit underneath in trifectas as a reliable board-hitter.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Leslie's Mojeaux looks like a potential monster lurking at the top of the morning line — a 50% career win rate is jaw-dropping for a claiming runner, and the TrackWiz rating confirms the talent gap.

win8Leslie's MojeauxML 3/1

Leslie's Mojeaux (3/1 ML) is the class of this 7-furlong field on several fronts: a 87.08 TrackWiz rating that towers over the competition, a 50% career win rate that is exceptional at any level, and an average speed figure of 55 that ties for the field's best. Axel Concepcion gets the mount for trainer W. Bret Calhoun, one of the sharper conditioners around. This horse has the look of a claiming-level standout who has no business losing a race like this.

place1Up the CreekML 7/2

Up the Creek (7/2 ML) is the morning line co-favorite and sports a solid 58.66 TrackWiz rating with a 17% career win rate — perfectly respectable for a dirt claimer. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount from post 1, which sets up a potential clean, ground-saving trip on the rail. If Leslie's Mojeaux exits the gate cleanly and grabs the top spot, Up the Creek is the natural horse to shadow the pace and challenge for second.

show5SwiftwindML 10/1

Swiftwind (10/1 ML) is our show play and a value angle worth noting — a 58.18 TrackWiz rating that nearly matches Up the Creek, and a 28% career win rate that jumps off the page at this odds level. The Steven M. Asmussen barn fires Erik Asmussen on board, and stable entries in an Asmussen-heavy card tend to be well-prepared. At 10/1, Swiftwind offers real exotic value as a third horse in the trifecta.

The free portion of today's card covers the first three races — all dirt, all claiming, and all offering some interesting pace dynamics. Imperial Ruler opens the card in a 6-furlong sprint with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating and a 9/2 morning line that suggests some real overlay potential if the market underestimates this one. Races 2 and 3 stretch out a bit — Easy Dial goes a flat mile in Race 2 while Leslie's Mojeaux steps into a 7-furlong test in Race 3, both sitting at identical 87.08 ratings and identical 3/1 morning lines, which makes for a fascinating comparison exercise right out of the gate.

On a fast dirt track like we expect today, early pace pressure tends to get punished going a route — keep that in mind for Race 2, where closers historically have an edge at Ellis Park when the speed duels up front. Our free picks are built with that bias in mind.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The Starter Optional Claiming condition opens the race up to an interesting ten-horse field, with Q's Your Mama and Icy River both carrying elite TrackWiz ratings that dwarf the chalk — this could be a value bonanza.

win9Q's Your MamaML 4/1

Q's Your Mama (4/1 ML) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 80.11 and shows a remarkable 33% career win rate — meaning this horse wins roughly one in three starts, which is elite numbers in any format. Francisco Arrieta gets the mount, and the 55 average speed figure ties for best in field. The 4/1 morning line feels fair or even a touch generous for a horse who profiles as clearly the best in the field on multiple angles.

place7Icy RiverML 8/1

Icy River (8/1 ML) is the morning line sleeper here — a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that is essentially a dead heat with Q's Your Mama at the top of the class. The 23% career win rate and a matching 55 average speed figure show this is a horse capable of winning this race outright. Johanis Aranguren takes the mount for trainer Armando Hernandez, and at 8/1 on the board, this is a live place horse who could easily beat the favorite.

show8MargoinabubblebathML 5/2

Margoinabubblebath (5/2 ML) is the public's choice here and carries a 67.61 rating with a 28% career win rate that commands respect. Axel Concepcion rides for Michael A. Tomlinson, and the shorter morning line reflects genuine public confidence. As a show horse, Margoinabubblebath gives you a reliable safety net — a horse who makes the board with regularity and brings the best career win percentage of the top three selections.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint with a field of 16 — speed figures are largely absent for most of these first-timers, making trainer and pedigree angles the primary handicapping tools on a tricky grass opener.

win7Kilo JulietML 7/2

Kilo Juliet (7/2 ML) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 in a race where most entrants have no speed figure on record — giving our analysis a meaningful edge in separating contenders from hopefuls. The Brad H. Cox barn has a well-earned reputation for debuting horses correctly, and Florent Geroux is one of the sharpest grass riders in the region. The 7/2 morning line reflects trainer confidence, and Cox runners with a top jockey at short odds on the turf deserve serious respect.

place4AmangatiML 5/1

Amangati (5/1 ML) checks in second on the TrackWiz ratings at 53.33 with Ben Curtis aboard for Brendan P. Walsh — another trainer who has a history of placing horses well in maiden grass routes. Curtis is an underrated rider who gets results, and the 5/1 price on a Walsh-trained turf runner is the kind of spot where experienced bettors circle the form. A clean break from post 4 sets up a ground-saving trip.

show10Nu Why MeML 8/1

Nu Why Me (8/1 ML) ties Hazel Martyn and Love Line for third in the TrackWiz ratings at 48.33 but stands out with the James P. DiVito barn — a conditioner who is patient with young turf runners and times their debuts well. No speed figure on record means you're trusting the trainer angle here, and at 8/1, there's enough upside to use in the bottom of a trifecta in a race this wide open.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

C McGriff is a significant class standout in this allowance field at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, but House United and Baytown Bruiser offer enough form to make the exotics interesting — don't write off the 3/1 shot.

win7C McGriffML 5/1

C McGriff (5/1 ML) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 — a significant gap over the second-best horse — and a 33% career win rate that is impressive for allowance company. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount for trainer Robert Medina, and a 53 average speed figure rounds out a consistent profile. The 5/1 morning line on the field's top-rated horse feels like value, especially stretching out to 1 1/8 miles where tactical speed can be controlled.

place3Baytown BruiserML 9/2

Baytown Bruiser (9/2 ML) is the second-best TrackWiz-rated runner at 69.67 and steps up in trip with Florent Geroux aboard for Barry L. King. A 16% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure suggest a horse who is competitive at this level and capable of finishing with energy late. Geroux has a feel for longer routes and should find a good spot tracking the pace in a seven-horse field.

show6House UnitedML 3/1

House United (3/1 ML) comes in as the morning line public choice despite ranking fifth in the field by TrackWiz rating — a flag that the crowd may be overvaluing recent form. Rafael Bejarano is a proven hand, and the David Jacobson barn is sharp, but an 11% career win rate in a 7-horse allowance field gives us pause. As a show play, though, the public backing all but guarantees House United will hover near the front of contention.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Twirling Claire looks like the class of this allowance turf sprint with the field's top TrackWiz rating, but Wisconsin Gal lurking at 8/1 is a genuine threat — the 3/1 morning line favorite Hot Mash looks overrated by the numbers.

win7Twirling ClaireML 9/2

Twirling Claire (9/2 ML) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 and pairs a top-rated average speed figure of 57 — the best in the field — with Gerardo Corrales in the irons for Gregory D. Foley. Foley also saddles Sweet Sissone in the same race, but the numbers point clearly toward Twirling Claire as the barn's main hope. A 16% career win rate might understate the ability here given the rating, and 9/2 on the morning line represents fair value for the field's most impressive profile.

place9Wisconsin GalML 8/1

Wisconsin Gal (8/1 ML) is a legitimate sleeper at this price — a 75.7 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field, tucked behind a 55 average speed figure and a trainer in Phillip Capuano who tends to spot horses in spots they can win. The 9% career win rate is the one concern, but a horse with this rating going at 8/1 in an allowance turf sprint deserves to be included in all exotic tickets. Yedsit Hazlewood takes the mount.

show1JudiciousML 6/1

Judicious (6/1 ML) rounds out the ticket with a 68.8 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — the strongest win percentage in this nine-horse field. Francisco Arrieta gets the rail post for Philip D'Amato, and that trainer-jockey combination on the turf at Ellis Park is worth noting. The 56 average speed figure is competitive, and at 6/1, Judicious is a solid include for exotic bettors building underneath tickets.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The Town carries a dominant TrackWiz rating into this Starter Allowance mile, but Bourbon Flight at 3/1 is breathing down its neck — the real intrigue is whether longshot Alston at 10/1 can spoil the party.

win6The TownML 5/1

The Town (5/1 ML) leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 and shows a 33% career win rate that makes it one of the most accomplished horses on today's card. Ben Curtis rides for Aaron Shorter, and the 54 average speed figure matches the competitive tier of this field. At 5/1 on the morning line with the top rating and a strong win percentage, this is a genuine best bet — the kind of horse our analysis circles as a confident play.

place8Bourbon FlightML 3/1

Bourbon Flight (3/1 ML) is the public's choice and comes armed with a 78.83 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate that mirrors The Town's win efficiency. Axel Concepcion handles the mount for Joe Sharp, a trainer who rarely runs horses out of condition. The 3/1 morning line likely reflects a strong public lean, and while we prefer The Town, Bourbon Flight is too talented to fade completely — it should hit the board.

show10AlstonML 10/1

Alston (10/1 ML) is the value play of the race — a 70.98 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field, a 50% career win rate that is genuinely eye-popping, and Danny Sheehy in the irons for Peter Eurton. A horse with a 50% career win rate going off at 10/1 is the kind of overlay that experienced horseplayers notice. As a show horse, Alston offers terrific risk-reward for exotic bettors, and could easily outrun the odds entirely.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Dismiss looks like a cut above this maiden turf sprint field with a 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 57 average speed figure — in a race where most entrants have no published speed figure, that separation is significant.

win1DismissML 7/2

Dismiss (7/2 ML) is the standout selection to close out the card — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that is by far the best in this 12-horse maiden field, backed by a 57 average speed figure that suggests this horse has already shown real ability on the turf. Mario Gutierrez takes the mount for Pavel Matejka, and with no career wins yet, this is a horse who appears overdue for a breakthrough. The morning line favorite tag is well-deserved, and if the turf is playing fair, Dismiss should have the class to wire this field.

place8On ParML 5/1

On Par (5/1 ML) is the second pick for TrackWiz despite having no published speed figure — the 53.33 rating and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. in the irons for David Fawkes give it enough credibility. Hernandez is an active and capable rider who navigates maiden turf sprints with patience, and the 5/1 price gives On Par enough overlay potential to make it worth using in place combinations. In a field where most runners are unknown quantities, a horse with trainer and jockey credentials stands out.

show4CaragogoML 9/2

Caragogo (9/2 ML) rounds out the trifecta ticket with a 52.1 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure — one of only a handful in the field who have shown any recorded speed at all. Victor R. Carrasco rides for George R. Arnold II, and the 9/2 morning line implies modest public respect. In a chaotic maiden turf sprint with this many unknowns, a horse with a published speed figure and a double-digit odds profile is worth stacking at the bottom of your ticket.

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It's a well-rounded card at Ellis Park today — good conditions, a nice mix of race types, and several spots where the morning line looks beatable. Imperial Ruler, Easy Dial, and Leslie's Mojeaux headline the free picks to get you started. For the full nine-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies, subscribe to TrackWiz and get everything you need before the first race goes off. Good luck out there.

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