Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 7, 2026

Up the Creek (7/2 ML) is the morning line co-favorite and sports a solid 58.66 TrackWiz rating with a 17% career win rate — perfectly respectable for a dirt claimer. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount from post 1, which sets up a potential clean, ground-saving trip on the rail. If Leslie's Mojeaux exits the gate cleanly and grabs the top spot, Up the Creek is the natural horse to shadow the pace and challenge for second.

Swiftwind (10/1 ML) is our show play and a value angle worth noting — a 58.18 TrackWiz rating that nearly matches Up the Creek, and a 28% career win rate that jumps off the page at this odds level. The Steven M. Asmussen barn fires Erik Asmussen on board, and stable entries in an Asmussen-heavy card tend to be well-prepared. At 10/1, Swiftwind offers real exotic value as a third horse in the trifecta.

Icy River (8/1 ML) is the morning line sleeper here — a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that is essentially a dead heat with Q's Your Mama at the top of the class. The 23% career win rate and a matching 55 average speed figure show this is a horse capable of winning this race outright. Johanis Aranguren takes the mount for trainer Armando Hernandez, and at 8/1 on the board, this is a live place horse who could easily beat the favorite.

Margoinabubblebath (5/2 ML) is the public's choice here and carries a 67.61 rating with a 28% career win rate that commands respect. Axel Concepcion rides for Michael A. Tomlinson, and the shorter morning line reflects genuine public confidence. As a show horse, Margoinabubblebath gives you a reliable safety net — a horse who makes the board with regularity and brings the best career win percentage of the top three selections.

Amangati (5/1 ML) checks in second on the TrackWiz ratings at 53.33 with Ben Curtis aboard for Brendan P. Walsh — another trainer who has a history of placing horses well in maiden grass routes. Curtis is an underrated rider who gets results, and the 5/1 price on a Walsh-trained turf runner is the kind of spot where experienced bettors circle the form. A clean break from post 4 sets up a ground-saving trip.

Nu Why Me (8/1 ML) ties Hazel Martyn and Love Line for third in the TrackWiz ratings at 48.33 but stands out with the James P. DiVito barn — a conditioner who is patient with young turf runners and times their debuts well. No speed figure on record means you're trusting the trainer angle here, and at 8/1, there's enough upside to use in the bottom of a trifecta in a race this wide open.

Baytown Bruiser (9/2 ML) is the second-best TrackWiz-rated runner at 69.67 and steps up in trip with Florent Geroux aboard for Barry L. King. A 16% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure suggest a horse who is competitive at this level and capable of finishing with energy late. Geroux has a feel for longer routes and should find a good spot tracking the pace in a seven-horse field.

House United (3/1 ML) comes in as the morning line public choice despite ranking fifth in the field by TrackWiz rating — a flag that the crowd may be overvaluing recent form. Rafael Bejarano is a proven hand, and the David Jacobson barn is sharp, but an 11% career win rate in a 7-horse allowance field gives us pause. As a show play, though, the public backing all but guarantees House United will hover near the front of contention.

Wisconsin Gal (8/1 ML) is a legitimate sleeper at this price — a 75.7 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field, tucked behind a 55 average speed figure and a trainer in Phillip Capuano who tends to spot horses in spots they can win. The 9% career win rate is the one concern, but a horse with this rating going at 8/1 in an allowance turf sprint deserves to be included in all exotic tickets. Yedsit Hazlewood takes the mount.

Judicious (6/1 ML) rounds out the ticket with a 68.8 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — the strongest win percentage in this nine-horse field. Francisco Arrieta gets the rail post for Philip D'Amato, and that trainer-jockey combination on the turf at Ellis Park is worth noting. The 56 average speed figure is competitive, and at 6/1, Judicious is a solid include for exotic bettors building underneath tickets.

Bourbon Flight (3/1 ML) is the public's choice and comes armed with a 78.83 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate that mirrors The Town's win efficiency. Axel Concepcion handles the mount for Joe Sharp, a trainer who rarely runs horses out of condition. The 3/1 morning line likely reflects a strong public lean, and while we prefer The Town, Bourbon Flight is too talented to fade completely — it should hit the board.

Alston (10/1 ML) is the value play of the race — a 70.98 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field, a 50% career win rate that is genuinely eye-popping, and Danny Sheehy in the irons for Peter Eurton. A horse with a 50% career win rate going off at 10/1 is the kind of overlay that experienced horseplayers notice. As a show horse, Alston offers terrific risk-reward for exotic bettors, and could easily outrun the odds entirely.

On Par (5/1 ML) is the second pick for TrackWiz despite having no published speed figure — the 53.33 rating and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. in the irons for David Fawkes give it enough credibility. Hernandez is an active and capable rider who navigates maiden turf sprints with patience, and the 5/1 price gives On Par enough overlay potential to make it worth using in place combinations. In a field where most runners are unknown quantities, a horse with trainer and jockey credentials stands out.

Caragogo (9/2 ML) rounds out the trifecta ticket with a 52.1 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure — one of only a handful in the field who have shown any recorded speed at all. Victor R. Carrasco rides for George R. Arnold II, and the 9/2 morning line implies modest public respect. In a chaotic maiden turf sprint with this many unknowns, a horse with a published speed figure and a double-digit odds profile is worth stacking at the bottom of your ticket.