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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 2, 2026

August 2, 202610 racesAll Ellis Park picks

Ellis Park rolls out a loaded Sunday card on August 2nd — ten races, cloudy skies, and a comfortable 73°F keeping conditions as close to ideal as you'll get in a Kentucky summer. The dirt should be consistent throughout the afternoon, and that mild temperature is a genuine gift for horses stretching out in distance.

What makes today's card special is the back half of the program. Five stakes races — all on turf — dominate Races 6 through 10, giving grass bettors a full menu to work with. Whether you're hunting for a single best bet or looking to anchor a multi-race sequence, this card has the depth to reward serious attention.

We've got full TrackWiz ratings on all ten races. The first three are on the house — Races 4 through 10 are available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile on the dirt with an experienced barn at the top of the market — Bob Baffert's debut runner sets the tone while Steven Asmussen and Ian Wilkes send out live shots to keep things honest.

win8Goal to GoML 9/5

Goal to Go breaks from the eight-hole with a TrackWiz rating of 58.67 — the best in the field by a clear margin — and comes out of the Baffert barn, which consistently produces ready-to-run debut winners. Florent Geroux gets the call, and he's a savvy hand at rating a young horse around a two-turn maiden route. The morning line of 9/5 says the market agrees, and with no speed figure to handicap from, we're leaning heavily on connections and rating here.

place4MonnieML 4/1

Monnie (4) is the lone runner in the field with no published average speed, suggesting a first-out runner that Steven Asmussen has pointed for this spot — and Asmussen debuts are worth respecting at a mile. Keith J. Asmussen rides, keeping everything in-house, and the 55.0 TrackWiz rating is the second-best in the field. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine upside in the place slot.

show5Bourbon ByteML 9/2

Bourbon Byte checks in at 54.17 on the TrackWiz scale and posts an average speed of 54 — matching Patriots Quest but coming in with the Wilkes barn behind her, a trainer who knows how to place a horse. Francisco Arrieta, a capable big-meet rider, takes the mount, and at 9/2 the show price could offer real value in a maiden where the top three are closely bunched.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Cut to the Chase is a massive class and form standout in this allowance optional claimer, posting a 40% career win rate that towers over the rest — the question is whether the 3/1 morning line offers enough edge or whether Flat Out Time and Nooni can bridge the gap.

win5Cut to the ChaseML 3/1

Cut to the Chase owns a 40% career win percentage — by far the highest in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 that laps the competition. Trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Yedsit Hazlewood at six furlongs on the dirt, the pace scenario looks clean for a horse with this kind of form edge. The 3/1 morning line is honest rather than exciting, but when the data is this decisive, you back it.

place6Flat Out TimeML 4/1

Flat Out Time (6) brings a 28% career win rate and a 71.62 TrackWiz rating that slots in comfortably as the second-best in the field. George Weaver is a sharp trainer at sprint distances, and Danny Sheehy picks up the mount on a horse whose average speed of 56 ties She'z the Law and Cut to the Chase at the top of the speed figure column. At 4/1, this is a legitimate threat to run second.

show7NooniML 2/1

Nooni is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and comes with the Baffert-Geroux combination that lit up Race 1, but a 61.74 rating and an average speed of 53 — the lowest among the top contenders — raises questions about whether the market is a step ahead of the form. Still, Baffert's barn win rate demands respect, and Nooni's 28% career win percentage makes her a solid show-ticket inclusion.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Fifteen runners go to post in a maiden sprint for fillies, and the field is genuinely wide open — the top-rated horses separate from the pack on TrackWiz numbers, but nearly half the field has no published speed figures, making this a race where trainer credentials and morning-line positioning matter as much as anything.

win9Fast AmyML 7/2

Fast Amy (9) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 and pairs a published average speed of 54 with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons — a combination that gives Brendan Walsh's charge an edge in both data and rider quality. Walsh is one of the sharper trainers at placing lightly raced fillies, and the 7/2 morning line suggests the market sees it too. In a big field where several runners have zero speed figure history, Fast Amy's tangible numbers provide a meaningful edge.

place11Another FlightML 9/2

Another Flight (11) also comes out of the Walsh barn — giving the trainer two shots in the same race — and carries a solid 54.17 TrackWiz rating from the 9/2 morning line. Ben Curtis, a proven turf and dirt rider, handles the mount, and while there are no speed figures published, the Walsh stable's record of producing first-out runners ready to fire makes this filly worth including in the exotics.

show3Ice EmpressML 5/1

Ice Empress (3) checks in at 53.33 on the TrackWiz scale and comes out of the Fawkes barn with Mario Gutierrez up, priced at 5/1 on the morning line. No speed figure is published, but she stands third in our ratings among a 15-horse field, and in a race this large, placing third is a realistic outcome for a well-regarded runner. A show ticket here offers decent overlay value.

Our three free races today cover a range of conditions — two Maiden Special Weights bookending an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint — and they're connected by a common thread: pace setup matters on this dirt track under these conditions. Goal to Go (9/5 morning line, 58.67 rating) gets the mile in Race 1, where early positioning figures to be critical. Cut to the Chase is the standout of the free trio — an 87.08 rating in a 6-furlong AOC is the kind of number that jumps off the page, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value attached to it. Fast Amy (7/2, 55.83) closes out the freebie races in Race 3's 6-furlong maiden.

In competitive maiden fields, ratings in the mid-50s can absolutely get the job done — don't let the numbers scare you off. But Cut to the Chase is the horse we'd single out from the free card without hesitation. That rating, that price, that distance — it lines up cleanly.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

This allowance mile features a striking upset angle — Balaclava draws in at 15/1 with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field despite being a morning-line longshot, setting up one of the more intriguing value plays on the card.

win7BalaclavaML 15/1

Balaclava (7) posts a 69.58 TrackWiz rating — the best in this allowance field — and comes in with a 66% career win percentage, the most impressive record on the board. Brian Williamson sends her out from post seven with Ben Curtis aboard, a jockey who handles a mile comfortably and has the tactical experience to rate a horse in a two-turn event. The 15/1 morning line is a genuine value discrepancy, and our analysis says this filly is significantly underpriced.

place3Colonial RoseML 8/1

Colonial Rose (3) rates second in the field at 65.07 and sits at 8/1 on the morning line — another horse whose odds exceed what the numbers suggest. Trained by Norm Casse and ridden by Francisco Arrieta, she has an 11% career win rate but that number will look different if she fires a big effort today. Pace-wise, she has the speed figure profile to be running at the end of a mile, making the place slot a smart play.

show8In Total AweML 2/1

In Total Awe (8) is technically unbeaten — 100% career win percentage — and carries the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 with Axel Concepcion up for Albert Stall Jr. The 58.33 TrackWiz rating slots her third in the field, but the unbeaten record suggests connections believe there's more upside ahead. Even if this is a step up in class that stretches her limits, she's the kind of horse that hits the board.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Sixteen debut or lightly raced juveniles go five and a half furlongs on the dirt in a wide-open maiden special weight — the majority of the field has no published speed figures, making trainer and morning-line credentials critical handicapping tools today.

win12Flip Flop FreakML 3/1

Flip Flop Freak (12) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and goes with Florent Geroux for Brian Lynch — a powerful trainer-jockey tandem that regularly produces sharp maiden winners at the meet. No speed figure is published, but a 3/1 morning line with top ratings and elite connections is enough reason to make this the top selection in a field where nobody stands out on times alone. Lynch knows how to point a first-out runner, and five and a half furlongs is a rider-friendly distance to exhibit early pace.

place4True EssenceML 9/2

True Essence (4) comes out of Brad Cox's barn — one of the most successful training operations in the midwest — and carries a 54.17 TrackWiz rating at 9/2. Tyler Gaffalione rides, giving this filly a rider who wins consistently at Ellis Park and knows how to navigate large fields. In a 16-horse maiden race, having the Cox-Gaffalione combination in your place spot is a sensible insurance policy.

show6ExcellentML 5/1

Excellent (6) slots in at 53.33 on our ratings and is morning-lined at 5/1 with Cristian Torres up for Rodolphe Brisset — a trainer who is sharp with lightly raced sprinters. No speed figure is available, but standing third in our ratings out of 16 runners is meaningful context. At the price, she's worth including in an exacta or trifecta play.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The turf card kicks off with a stakes at a mile and an eighth — East Jabip is the morning-line favorite but Turner's Charm tops our ratings by a wide margin, setting up a potential odds-on clash between market and model.

win2Turner's CharmML 4/1

Turner's Charm (2) is our top-rated horse in this field at 85.62 — nearly nine points clear of East Jabip — and combines that with a 50% career win percentage, an elite record for a stakes runner. Brendan Walsh saddles her and Ben Curtis takes the mount, a pairing with pedigree at this class level and over the turf. The 4/1 morning line represents real value when you consider she grades out as the class of the field.

place6East JabipML 9/5

East Jabip (6) is the 9/5 morning-line favorite, trained by Brian Lynch with Tyler Gaffalione aboard — a combination that wins at a high rate. The 76.97 TrackWiz rating and 50% career win percentage back up the favoritism, and over a mile and an eighth on turf, pace is everything. Gaffalione will know how to find the right position from post six.

show8Infinite SkyML 9/2

Infinite Sky (8) sits third in our ratings at 75.13 and gets Luan Machado for Brad Cox — the home-track trainer who routinely fires horses fresh at Ellis Park. A 20% career win percentage understates her ceiling in a stakes field where several mares are at similar experience levels. At 9/2, she's a legitimate exotics piece and a horse that Cox could have pointed specifically for this spot.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A nine-horse turf stakes at a mile and an eighth features a genuine upset angle at the top of our model — Fancy Sailor sits as a morning-line 5/1 but leads the TrackWiz ratings and owns the best career win percentage in the field.

win1Fancy SailorML 5/1

Fancy Sailor (1) posts an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this stakes field — and backs it up with a 66% career win percentage, by far the most dominant record on the board. Brian Lynch trains and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. rides, a lethal combination on the Ellis Park turf. Despite opening at 5/1 on the morning line, the combination of top rating, top win rate, and elite connections makes this the clear best bet of the race.

place6Brave ForceML 4/1

Brave Force (6) is right behind at 80.33 on our ratings and draws the services of Vincent Cheminaud, an experienced international turf rider who handles a mile and an eighth with ease. Jack Sisterson saddles the horse at 4/1 on the morning line, and while a 25% career win rate is modest, the raw rating says this runner is sitting on a big effort. He's the most logical place horse in the field.

show7Royal CausewayML 8/1

Royal Causeway (7) rates third in the field at 69.2 and draws Cristian Torres for Dallas Stewart — a trainer who is patient with his horses and tends to ship them in ready to run. An average speed of 55 and a 20% career win rate tell a consistent story, and at 8/1, Royal Causeway is an overlay worth including in trifecta tickets from multiple spots.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A twelve-horse turf sprint stakes at five and a half furlongs features a dominant model standout — Troubleshooting rates nearly 14 points clear of Joe Shiesty, and with a 33% career win rate and sharp connections, this looks like the strongest single-race lean on the entire card.

win11TroubleshootingML 5/2

Troubleshooting (11) is our highest-rated horse in Race 8 at 87.81 — the best TrackWiz score of any runner in any stakes race today — and pairs that with a 33% career win percentage in a field where that's near the top. Gregory Foley puts Tyler Gaffalione on board, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the market is in agreement that this is the horse to beat. In a five-and-a-half furlong turf sprint, pace flow is critical, but Troubleshooting's rating edge is substantial enough to overcome most trip scenarios.

place3Joe ShiestyML 2/1

Joe Shiesty (3) is the morning-line co-favorite at 2/1 and rates second in the field at 74.39 — with Fernando De La Cruz up for Eric Foster. A 33% career win percentage gives him the same raw success rate as Troubleshooting, and an average speed of 58 is the joint-highest in the race. He's a live place horse even if Troubleshooting is clearly the top of the market.

show5MondogetsbucketsML 8/1

Mondogetsbuckets (5) brings a 65.25 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate, with Umberto Rispoli in the saddle for Chris Block. His average speed of 58 matches the top horses in this field, and the 8/1 morning line may undervalue a horse who is sitting on a sharp sprint effort. He's an interesting show play and a trifecta horse in a race with a real pace battle developing.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

Fourteen fillies and mares go to post in this mile turf stakes — Medoro leads our ratings but Buttercream Babe, Smiling Ellie, and Icona are all competitive, making this one of the deepest races on the card and a prime trifecta construction opportunity.

win7MedoroML 3/1

Medoro (7) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 79.65 and owns a 40% career win percentage — one of the better records in this fourteen-horse field. Peter Eurton sends her out with Umberto Rispoli aboard, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the market is respectful but not dismissive. An average speed of 55 is consistent with the top tier of this field, and Rispoli is an ideal turf rider for a mile distance that rewards patience.

place3Buttercream BabeML 5/1

Buttercream Babe (3) is our second-rated horse at 75.56 and posts an average speed of 57 — the highest in the entire field by two points, which is a significant edge in a turf mile where late pace matters. George Arnold's barn sends her out at 5/1 with Yedsit Hazlewood, and a 20% career win rate doesn't tell the whole story for a runner whose speed figures suggest she's been running well without the luck breaking her way.

show6Smiling EllieML 10/1

Smiling Ellie (6) is a double-digit morning-line price at 10/1 but checks in with a 69.83 TrackWiz rating — good enough for third in a fourteen-horse field. Mark Casse sends her out with Francisco Arrieta, and a 23% career win rate in a competitive stakes circuit speaks to durability. In a race this deep, the show position is very much in play, and 10/1 odds on a third-best-rated runner is a meaningful overlay.

Race 10

9:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The final race of the evening is a fifteen-horse turf stakes at a mile and a sixteenth — Lambeth tops our ratings by a wide margin but opens at 4/1, setting up a closing race with clear model leadership and a pair of live exotics threats lurking underneath.

win5LambethML 4/1

Lambeth (5) leads the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the same elite score that Turner's Charm earned in Race 6 — and carries a 31% career win percentage in what figures to be her best shot at stakes glory today. Joe Sharp saddles her and Umberto Rispoli, who has been riding with authority on the turf all afternoon, gets the call. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's not a chalk bet, but the rating advantage in a field this large is compelling enough to single her in win bets.

place4QuatrocentoML 7/2

Quatrocento (4) is the morning-line second choice at 7/2 and rates second in the field at 74.65, giving the Fausto Gutierrez barn a legitimate contender in a stakes race where consistency pays dividends. Mario Gutierrez rides, keeping connections in-house, and a 38% career win percentage is one of the better records in this fifteen-horse field. He's the most natural place horse given his odds and his rating gap over the rest of the contenders.

show12MercanteML 9/2

Mercante (12) rates third in the field at 57.0 and draws Florent Geroux for Brian Knippenberg at 9/2 on the morning line — solid odds for a horse whose numbers suggest she belongs in the top half of this field. A 25% career win rate is workmanlike, and Geroux's turf record at this meet gives her a tactical edge in a large field where trips can be complicated. She's a strong show play and a sensible trifecta inclusion from multiple combinations.

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Ten races, five stakes, and a turf card loaded with intriguing matchups — Ellis Park is bringing the heat today even if the weather isn't. Cut to the Chase is our value anchor on the free card, and Troubleshooting is the horse we're most excited about for subscribers. Don't miss the full breakdown — including exotic plays and pace projections — available now with a TrackWiz subscription. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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