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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — August 1, 2026

August 1, 202610 racesAll Ellis Park picks

Happy August from Henderson, Kentucky. Ellis Park is rolling out a full 10-race card today under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 76°F — about as good as summer racing gets out here. No oppressive heat to flatten speed horses, no rain to churn up the strip. Conditions are about as neutral as you'll find mid-summer at this track.

What makes today's card worth clearing your afternoon for? Turf, turf, and more turf. Four of the ten races run on the grass, including a pair of stakes to close things out in Races 9 and 10. We've also got a wide range of class levels — from maiden claimers still searching for their first win all the way up to stakes company — which means there's a real mix of betting angles to attack no matter what your style is.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all 10 races. The first three are on the house — free for every reader. Races 4 through 10 are part of our premium breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight going 1 1/8 miles on dirt, and the morning line favorites look beatable — TrackWiz analysis points to a potential longshot upset from a horse the public may overlook entirely.

win8Sequoia StarsML 15/1

Sequoia Stars (8) is our top selection at 15/1 morning line, and that price looks generous given a TrackWiz rating of 69.58 — the highest in the field by a meaningful margin. Trained by J. Kent Sweezey and piloted by Edgar Morales, this maiden shapes up as a live longshot in a field where nobody has broken their maiden yet, leveling the experience playing field. At 1 1/8 miles, a horse with standout ratings relative to the field can find real separation in the late going, and Sequoia Stars fits that profile better than anyone here.

place3One More TimeML 9/2

One More Time (3) carries the Bob Baffert barn label, which demands respect in maiden company — Baffert's operation consistently produces first-out winners, and a 9/2 morning line reflects the market's awareness of that angle. With a TrackWiz rating of 60.07, this horse rates second in the field and figures to be involved throughout the stretch run.

show1IngleboroughML 6/1

Ingleborough (1) is a Dale Romans trainee breaking from the rail with Martin Garcia up, and Romans knows Ellis Park as well as anyone. The TrackWiz rating of 57.88 is solid in this field, and drawing the one-hole at a classic two-turn distance can be a genuine advantage when things unfold cleanly.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Quality View looms as a heavy class standout in this maiden optional claimer, but the real question is whether Lunar Loop can keep the margin close enough for exotic players to cash underneath.

win6Quality ViewML 3/1

Quality View (6) posts a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a full 17 points clear of the next horse in the field — and trainer Christopher Davis has this one spotted perfectly at a one-mile trip. Adam Beschizza gets the call from the irons, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse the market already respects. When you see that kind of rating separation in a maiden field, it's usually a signal that the horse has been showing something in the mornings or has form from outside the circuit that TrackWiz has captured.

place2Lunar LoopML 5/1

Lunar Loop (2) is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 69.88, and Rick Hiles has this one primed off a 5/1 morning line that represents fair value. Ben Curtis gets the mount, and Curtis has been sharp at Ellis. At a mile on dirt, speed figure horses like Lunar Loop with a 53 average figure can rate nicely off the pace and pounce late.

show4Halfway to OmahaML 8/1

Halfway to Omaha (4) checks in with a 57.89 TrackWiz rating and a respectable 53 average speed, and the Axel Concepcion booking at 8/1 morning line is a value angle worth noting for exotics. Trainer Troy Newton has this one pointed right, and if the pace up front gets contentious, a closer profile pays dividends.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Two Seven O enters as a dominant figure on paper in this turf allowance sprint, posting a career win percentage that makes the morning line favorite look like a secondary concern — the question is whether the price holds up at post time.

win6Two Seven OML EVN

Two Seven O (6) is the standout in this field by almost every measure: a TrackWiz rating of 90 leads the field, a 71% career win percentage is elite for this level, and an average speed figure of 57 matches the top runners in the race. Trained by David Fawkes with Francisco Arrieta aboard, this horse opens at even money and deserves to be a short price — the data simply backs it. At 5.5 furlongs on turf, a horse with this kind of speed and conversion rate is exactly the type to wire the field.

place4Trouble CallingML 7/5

Trouble Calling (4) is the morning line co-favorite at 7/5 with a 33% career win rate and a 76.61 TrackWiz rating — the second-best figure in the field. Axel Concepcion has the call and knows how to position horses on a short turf sprint. This one figures to press or stalk Two Seven O and will be tough to leave out of exactas.

show2Bluegrass TownML 12/1

Bluegrass Town (2) is worth a look at 12/1 as a sneaky value play in the show position — Brendan Walsh runners on turf at Ellis can outrun their prices, and Danny Sheehy gives this one a live handler. A 62.32 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate suggest this horse is better than the public odds imply.

Our three free races today cover a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 is a long Maiden Special Weight at a mile and an eighth on dirt — a distance that tends to sort out the pretenders early, and our top pick Sequoia Stars is a legitimate price play at 15/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 69.58. In these wide-open maiden fields, chalk doesn't always hold up at a route, and that's exactly the kind of spot where value lives.

Race 2 brings Quality View into a Maiden Optional Claiming mile, and at 3/1 with a rating of 87.08, this is one of the stronger TrackWiz numbers you'll see in a maiden event all day — worth anchoring your early multi-race tickets around. Then Race 3 flips us over to the turf for an Allowance sprint at 5½ furlongs, where Two Seven O is the morning-line favorite at even money and a perfect 90.0 TrackWiz rating. When we're that confident, you listen.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

City of Life looms as a major class edge in this maiden claimer, but the Asmussen barn has two entries adding intrigue, and a legitimate pace duel could set things up for a closer in the stretch.

win10City of LifeML 6/1

City of Life (10) carries the top TrackWiz rating in this race at 81.4 and goes postward at a juicy 6/1 morning line — that's a real disconnect between the data and the morning line price. Trained by Troy Wismer with William Antongeorgi III aboard, this one has a 54 average speed figure that should put it in the thick of a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint. When you find a horse with an 81-plus rating going off at 6/1 in a maiden claimer, that's the kind of line value that TrackWiz is built to surface.

place8HyperlinkML 10/1

Hyperlink (8) is the Steve Asmussen second string in this race at 10/1 morning line, but don't let the price fool you — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating is legitimate. Ben Curtis gets the mount, and Curtis rarely takes a ride without purpose in a maiden claimer. The 54 average speed figure pairs well with Hyperlink's rating for a horse that should hit the board.

show7Silver SniperML 9/2

Silver Sniper (7) draws the Eric Foster barn at 9/2 morning line with Francisco Arrieta up, and a 73.16 TrackWiz rating is the third best in the field. In a race where pace could be a factor with multiple speed horses, a horse with this kind of figure at a single-digit price is a natural fit in show parlays and exacta wheels.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A massive 16-horse maiden field on turf at 1 1/16 miles makes this one a chaotic betting race, but TrackWiz analysis narrows it to a handful of horses with meaningful edges over the morning line noise.

win3Mahogany DreamML 7/2

Mahogany Dream (3) tops our analysis at 7/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 — the best figure among horses who also carry an average speed number. Trainer Nik Goodwin has been patient with this one, and Martin Garcia is a seasoned pilot who excels at rating horses in turf routes. In a sprawling field like this, horses that can rate comfortably and then unleash a rally are the ones to be on.

place6RivelliML 4/1

Rivelli (6) breaks from the six-hole and is trained by Larry Rivelli — a trainer-owner combination that often signals a horse prepped specifically to fire on debut or in a key spot. A TrackWiz rating of 55.0 and a 4/1 morning line make this a natural underneath selection in exactas and trifectas, and Gerardo Corrales is an active rider at Ellis Park with good instincts on turf.

show12Big Mike FinkML 9/2

Big Mike Fink (12) gets the Brendan Walsh barn and Ben Curtis — that's a formidable turf team at any track, let alone Ellis Park. Walsh has a well-documented knack for producing turf runners fresh, and even without an average speed figure on record, a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 and the 9/2 morning line make this one a legitimate show contender and trifecta key.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

This maiden optional claimer at seven furlongs lacks a clear speed figure standout, making trainer and jockey connections more important than usual — and two barn angles rise above the noise.

win4Celtic MoML 7/2

Celtic Mo (4) draws the Eddie Kenneally barn with Francisco Arrieta up, and Kenneally's dirt runners at Ellis Park have a long track record of delivering value. The 55.83 TrackWiz rating tops the field and is paired with a 52 average speed figure — both of which suggest this horse has actual race experience to draw on. At 7/2 morning line in a maiden optional claimer, Celtic Mo is fairly priced and earns the top spot in our analysis.

place1LagosML 4/1

Lagos (1) gets Ben Curtis from the Michael Maker barn — Maker is one of the most consistent maiden trainers in the region, and Curtis rarely accepts a maiden claimer mount without confidence in the horse's readiness. A 55.0 TrackWiz rating matches closely with the win pick, and breaking from the rail in a 14-horse field at seven furlongs can work in a horse's favor if Curtis can secure good position early.

show9Innocent No MoreML 5/1

Innocent No More (9) is piloted by Axel Concepcion from the George Arnold II barn, and a 53.33 TrackWiz rating places this horse solidly in the mix despite a 5/1 morning line. With several first-time starters in this field who carry limited data, experienced horses with speed figures — even modest ones — tend to outrun prices in maiden optional claimers.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A full 16-horse turf allowance mile is a handicapper's puzzle, but Fuzzbuster stands out on TrackWiz ratings in a race where pace figures to be honest and closers should get their shot in the final furlong.

win8FuzzbusterML 5/1

Fuzzbuster (8) carries an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the best figure in a competitive field — and a 16% career win rate that reflects solid but not dominant form heading into today. Mario Gutierrez has the mount for trainer Victoria Oliver, and this combination projects as a horse that wants to sit midpack and accelerate off a pace that figures to be brisk with this many horses going a mile on turf. At 5/1 morning line, the price is reasonable for a horse the data clearly favors.

place1Lucky MischiefML 6/1

Lucky Mischief (1) posts a 17% career win rate and a 71.20 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and trainer Rick Hiles has this one primed off the rail draw. Rafael Bejarano is a grizzled veteran who rides the rail to perfection, and in a turf mile at Ellis Park where the inside path can be golden on a firm course, this pairing demands respect.

show6Clear the BeachML 9/2

Clear the Beach (6) checks in with a 70.77 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate, which is excellent company for an allowance field. Axel Concepcion takes the mount for Kelsey Danner, and the 9/2 morning line is fair but offers some overlay value if the favorites attract heavy action. A horse winning a quarter of its career starts at allowance level is the kind of profile that fills out trifectas consistently.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Big Boat stands apart on ratings in this six-furlong allowance optional claimer, but the 2/1 morning line favorite Keep It Easy sets up a potential pace duel that could open the door for a hard-charging closer.

win3Big BoatML 6/1

Big Boat (3) leads all horses in this field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and checks in with a 20% career win rate that is among the best in the race. Trainer James DiVito has this one set up beautifully with Francisco Arrieta in the irons, and a 56 average speed figure — tied for the highest in the field — projects well in a six-furlong sprint on dirt. At 6/1 morning line, Big Boat represents genuine value against a short-priced favorite.

place7Kalahari DreamsML 8/1

Kalahari Dreams (7) sits at 8/1 morning line with a 60.99 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate — numbers that are deceptively tidy in an allowance optional claimer. Gabriel Saez has excellent feel for six-furlong pace scenarios, and trainer Philip Bauer's runners often outrun their prices when Saez is aboard. A 55 average speed figure fits the distance well.

show4Market StreetML 9/2

Market Street (4) has a 52.66 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate, but what stands out is the 56 average speed figure — matching Big Boat at the top of the class for raw speed. Cristian Torres has this one breaking from the four-hole for trainer Aaron Shorter, and a horse with this kind of foot going off at 9/2 should be very much in the exotics picture at six furlongs.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive 15-horse turf sprint stakes brings together an eclectic mix of closers, speedballs, and lightly raced types — Fanshell Beach enters off a perfect record and gets trainer Wesley Ward's well-documented turf sprint mastery behind her.

win12Fanshell BeachML 9/5

Fanshell Beach (12) carries a 100% career win rate into this stakes, and trainer Wesley Ward is the undisputed king of short turf sprints — his horses routinely arrive at the peak of their conditioning for spots exactly like this 5.5-furlong turf dash. The 9/5 morning line reflects the market's confidence, and while she lacks an average speed figure on record, that often means a horse is lightly raced and still improving. TrackWiz rates her at 58.67, and combined with Ward's unmatched turf sprint record, she's the logical choice to top this field.

place10Hey Tuff GuyML 9/2

Hey Tuff Guy (10) is a 50% career winner going postward at 9/2 under Mario Gutierrez for Brian Lynch — a trainer who finds spots exceptionally well for his runners. A 54.17 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure suggest this horse can match strides with the contenders and has the experience to handle stakes-level competition.

show6Arctic WolfML 5/1

Arctic Wolf (6) catches the eye with a 100% career win rate and a 57 average speed figure — one of the highest in the race — trained by the high-profile Jack Sisterson barn with Martin Garcia up. A 5/1 morning line on a horse that hasn't lost is price enough to include in trifecta and superfecta combinations, even accounting for the step up in stakes competition.

Race 10

9:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The stakes finale on the Ellis Park card features a battle between Cloe and Saturday Flirt — two horses with legitimate credentials at the top of the ratings — while Big Trouble lurks as a solid third piece in exotic wagers.

win8CloeML 8/1

Cloe (8) tops our TrackWiz analysis at 79.79 in a field full of quality mares, and a 33% career win rate is excellent at the stakes level. Ben Curtis gets the call for trainer Michael Maker, and this combination has a strong history at Ellis Park in turf sprints. A 58 average speed figure — tied for the highest in the field — speaks to genuine class, and at 8/1 morning line, Cloe is positioned as a clear overlay against the shorter-priced Saturday Flirt.

place4Saturday FlirtML 3/1

Saturday Flirt (4) is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and brings a remarkable 66% career win rate into the gate — that level of conversion at the stakes level is rare and deserves full respect. Trainer Wesley Ward saddles this one just as he does Fanshell Beach in Race 9, and back-to-back Ward turf sprinters on a card is a pattern worth following. Yedsit Hazlewood picks up the mount, and if Cloe is the value play, Saturday Flirt is the horse to beat.

show1Big TroubleML 9/2

Big Trouble (1) leads a deep field with a 67.11 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 58. Francisco Arrieta rides for Gregory Foley, and an 18% career win rate reflects a horse that hits the board with regularity without always being the winner. At 9/2 morning line, Big Trouble is a natural third piece in any trifecta combination and should be in the mix throughout.

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Bottom line: Ellis Park is serving up a quality Saturday card with ideal weather, a turf-friendly bias to exploit, and genuine value in the early races. Start with Two Seven O as your anchor in Race 3, keep an eye on Quality View's odds in Race 2, and don't sleep on Sequoia Stars if the board keeps that 15/1 alive. For the full card — stakes breakdowns, exotic tickets, and pace projections through Race 10 — it's all available to subscribers. Check out TrackWiz Premium and make today count.

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