Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

Friday, July 31, 20269 racesEllis Park

Happy Friday from Ellis Park, where a pleasant partly-cloudy afternoon at 82°F sets the stage for a full 9-race card. The dirt should be playing fair and fast under these conditions, and the turf course gets three workouts today — a nice variety for handicappers looking to spread their action across surfaces.

It's a card that mixes the basics — maiden races and claiming events to open — with some meatier allowance and starter optional claiming spots in the back half. There's legitimate value scattered throughout, and our TrackWiz ratings flagged some compelling prices at morning line that deserve a close look before post time.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open mile claimer on the Ellis dirt where the TrackWiz ratings tell a surprising story — the morning-line longshot Romantic Lead carries the field's highest score by a comfortable margin, making this a potential overlay situation at 5/1.

win6Romantic LeadML 5/1

Romantic Lead (No. 6) owns a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — a full 24 points clear of the second-ranked horse in here, which is a massive separation in a claiming field. Despite a modest 4% career win rate, those raw numbers can be deceiving in maiden and lower-level claiming company when a horse is finally dropping into the right spot. Jockey Luan Machado gets the call for trainer Felipe Nickel, and at 5/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of overlay you circle. The avg speed figure of 53 is competitive in this field, and the TrackWiz model clearly sees something the crowd hasn't priced in yet.

place3Duke of SugginsML 9/2

Duke of Suggins (No. 3) brings the most convincing traditional credentials to the table — a 25% career win rate is the best in the field and gives him a real edge on pedigree of success. Trainer Norm W. Casse knows how to spot a spot, and a 60.21 rating combined with the field's best avg speed figure of 54 makes him a logical place contender. Gerardo Corrales is a capable rider who won't give this one away.

show8Vino DominusML 3/1

Vino Dominus (No. 8) is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and carries a 54.98 rating — solid for this level. Trainer Rob Atras has sent this one out to compete, and while our model likes him third-best, his favoritism means he'll attract plenty of action and could easily hit the board at a mile. He rounds out a logical exacta and trifecta bottom.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden optional claimer over seven furlongs of Ellis dirt with a field that has zero wins among them — this is pure projection and TrackWiz ratings do the heavy lifting in separating contenders from pretenders.

win1Respected MindML 5/1

Respected Mind (No. 1) sits atop the TrackWiz leaderboard with a 74.52 rating — nearly 19 points ahead of the next-best horse — and pairs that with a 54 avg speed figure, matching several others but backed by the model's deeper profile work. Florent Geroux in the irons is a significant asset; he's a proven winner at this level who gets the most out of lightly raced maidens. Trainer Chasey Deville Pomier may be a smaller operation, but Geroux's presence signals confidence in the horse's readiness. At 5/1, this is a fair price for the morning-line top pick who rates clearly superior.

place3CountthetrueML 7/2

Countthetrue (No. 3) checks in as the morning-line second choice at 7/2 with a 55.83 rating, and trainer Wayne M. Catalano is one of the sharper conditioners in the Midwest — his maidens are often well-prepared and ready to fire first out. Victor R. Carrasco has ridden winners at this meet and provides a reliable partnership. The 54 avg speed figure is right in the mix, and Catalano's win percentage with well-bet maidens makes this a real place threat.

show10Stealing the ShowML 9/2

Stealing the Show (No. 10) comes from the barn of Joe Sharp, a trainer who consistently sends out well-schooled runners and rarely wastes a spot. A 54.17 rating and 53 avg speed figure are respectable in this maiden field, and jockey Ben Curtis — a veteran who knows Ellis Park — gives this one every chance. At 9/2 on the morning line, she's a natural show play and a solid piece in your exacta boxes.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This mile claiming race has a three-horse tier at the top of the TrackWiz ratings with Silvertown, Mustang Lady, and Synoptic all bunched well above the rest — expect those three to dominate the exotics while the rest of the field fills out the price tickets.

win7SilvertownML 4/1

Silvertown (No. 7) leads all comers with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and is priced at just 4/1 on the morning line, making her a fair-value top selection in a race with obvious class separation. Trainer Genaro Garcia has Summer Pauly in the saddle, a rider who knows Ellis Park's one-turn mile well. The 53 avg speed figure is competitive, and a career win rate of 8% may seem modest, but the model's overall profile puts her clearly ahead of this field. She's the most likely winner here.

place4Mustang LadyML 7/2

Mustang Lady (No. 4) is fascinating — she carries a 78.60 rating with a career win percentage of just 2%, suggesting she's been running in tougher company and may finally be in the right spot to break through or at minimum hit the board. The Steven M. Asmussen/Erik Asmussen combination is a family affair and Asmussen Sr. knows how to place a horse in a winning position. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's the logical chalk play to back Silvertown in the exacta.

show9SynopticML 8/1

Synoptic (No. 9) is a compelling show play at 8/1 — a 74.36 rating is third-best in the field and a 12% career win rate shows he's competitive at this level. Trainer Kelly Bainum has William Antongeorgi III up, and at double-digit odds, Synoptic offers real trifecta value. If the top two run into traffic or pace trouble going a mile, he's the most logical beneficiary.

We're opening three races for free today, and they tell a nice story on the dirt. Romantic Lead (Race 1, 5/1 ML) kicks things off in a one-mile claiming affair with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — a solid number for this level. Respected Mind follows in Race 2, a 7-furlong maiden optional claimer where the 5/1 morning line looks like it could offer real value if early speed gets challenged. Then Silvertown headlines Race 3 with our strongest free-race rating on the card at 85.62 — at just 4/1 on the morning line, our analysis suggests the oddsmakers may have underestimated this one. All three races are on the dirt, so any late-developing surface bias worth noting early in the card could carry real money-making implications as the day unfolds.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of first-time starters heads to the Ellis turf for this maiden special weight, making this one of the toughest races to handicap on the card — with no career wins to reference, trainer and jockey profiles take center stage.

win8Ohana LuluML 7/2

Ohana Lulu (No. 8) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 and brings a 55 avg speed figure that's above the median for this field of debut runners. Trainer Brendan P. Walsh has a well-earned reputation for turf horses — his grass maidens routinely show up ready, and Ben Curtis is exactly the kind of proven, steady rider you want on a first-timer. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a fair price for the model's top-rated horse in a race where trainer pedigree on the grass matters enormously.

place2Dawn PatrolML 4/1

Dawn Patrol (No. 2) is the morning-line second choice at 4/1 with a solid 55.0 rating, and trainer Eoin G. Harty's grass program is among the best in the country — his debut runners on turf consistently outperform their odds. Rafael Bejarano is a savvy veteran who knows how to save ground on a turf course and get first-timers relaxed early. No avg speed figure on file yet, but the connections here more than compensate for the unknown.

show5Starry FlightML 5/1

Starry Flight (No. 5) rounds out our top three at 5/1 on the morning line with a 53.33 rating. Trainer Ian R. Wilkes has a deep history of competitive turf runners at Ellis Park, and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is one of the meet's top jockeys. First-time starters from this barn on the turf tend to be fit and ready, making Starry Flight a natural show play and useful third piece in any trifecta you're building.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses — Get Her Number, Lord Majesty, and Gee No Hollander — have clearly separated themselves from the rest of this starter optional claiming field, and the TrackWiz ratings suggest a competitive three-way battle for the top spots over the 6.5-furlong Ellis dirt strip.

win6Get Her NumberML 2/1

Get Her Number (No. 6) is the class of the field on every metric — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a 27% career win rate, and the field's best avg speed figure of 56 make her the deserving morning-line favorite at 2/1. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is one of the sharpest claiming trainers in the game, and pairing with Cristian A. Torres — who has been riding with confidence — gives this horse a top-tier connections advantage. She's the most likely winner on paper, and while 2/1 doesn't offer much overlay, the credentials justify the short price.

place7Lord MajestyML 7/2

Lord Majesty (No. 7) is right on Get Her Number's heels with an 82.38 rating, matching the favorite's 56 avg speed figure while posting a field-best 29% career win rate. Cameron Milligan gets Gabriel Saez up — a proven jockey who can rate a speed horse through a half-mile and still have something left. At 7/2 on the morning line, he's the natural betting counterpart in exactas and a real threat to flip the win result.

show5Gee No HollanderML 5/2

Gee No Hollander (No. 5) rounds out the top three at 5/2 on the morning line — an 82.08 rating and 18% career win rate make him a legitimate contender, not just a show filler. Edgar Morales has the mount for trainer Kinnon LaRose, and a 55 avg speed figure suggests he'll be competitive throughout. In a race with two standout horses above him, he's the most logical show play and trifecta anchor.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A deep twelve-horse allowance field on the Ellis turf at 5.5 furlongs, where Military Cruiser's top TrackWiz rating is offset by a morning line that gives him 5/1 odds — this race has legitimate threats throughout the top half of the field.

win1Military CruiserML 5/1

Military Cruiser (No. 1) leads the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating backed by a 57 avg speed figure — the top number in the race — and a career win rate of 11% in allowance company. Trainer Nicholas Vaccarezza gets Cristian A. Torres in the irons, a jockey who's been sharp all meet. The 5/1 morning line represents solid value for the model's top selection, and his speed figure edge over a short turf sprint suggests he can be prominent early and sustain the effort. He's the best bet in this race.

place3MumdoggieML 4/1

Mumdoggie (No. 3) is an intriguing place horse — a 25% career win rate is among the best in this field, and a 56 avg speed figure matches the upper tier. Trainer Michael J. Maker is a master with turf horses, and Danny Sheehy in the saddle knows the Ellis turf strip well. At 4/1 on the morning line with a 80.33 rating, Mumdoggie has the profile to run Military Cruiser down late if the pace sets up favorably.

show5StunningML 15/1

Stunning (No. 5) is our value play in the show slot at 15/1 on the morning line — a 67.60 rating and 33% career win rate are both deceptively strong for a horse going off at that price. Trainer John Ennis saddles her and jockey Alex Achard, who handles turf racing well, gets the call. In a full field of twelve where the pace figures to be honest over 5.5 furlongs of grass, a horse with a 33% win rate has shown she knows how to finish — she's a prime trifecta candidate at a price that makes the math work.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The six-furlong dirt claiming race features a competitive cluster at the top — five horses rated 73 or higher — with McSniper narrowly leading the pack and morning-line longshot Warm Up the Bus offering sneaky value at 10/1.

win9McSniperML 9/2

McSniper (No. 9) tops this field with a 78.03 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate, sitting at a workable 9/2 on the morning line. Martin Garcia has the mount for trainer Kinnon LaRose, who has been sending out ready runners this meet. A 54 avg speed figure is solid for a six-furlong dirt sprint, and with five horses bunched in the upper seventies, McSniper's edge may come down to gate break and positioning — Garcia is capable of getting a good start from the nine-hole.

place5Warm Up the BusML 10/1

Warm Up the Bus (No. 5) is our place value play — a 76.88 rating is the second-highest in the field yet this horse goes off at 10/1 on the morning line, suggesting the crowd may be overlooking what the model sees. Trainer J. Kent Sweezey has Jaime A. Torres in the irons, a reliable combination, and the horse's 53 avg speed figure fits the pace of a typical six-furlong claimer at Ellis. If McSniper gets the win, Warm Up the Bus has the profile to grab the place at an overlay price.

show4Getting After ItML 8/1

Getting After It (No. 4) brings a 20% career win rate and 75.22 rating to the table, giving him legitimate claims to a piece of this race. Trainer Joseph Deegan has Danny Sheehy up, and while both are solid, the value in the show position is real — at 8/1 on the morning line, he offers trifecta upside in a field where the top five horses are separated by less than six rating points. He's the kind of closer who finds the board when the early pace gets hot.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The mile turf allowance is shaped by a clear class standout in Mechaya, whose 84.90 rating separates her from a field where the rest of the contenders are bunched between 57 and 73 — this looks like a race with a legitimate top choice and real exotics value underneath.

win2MechayaML 9/2

Mechaya (No. 2) is the most impressive-rated horse on the Ellis card at this point in the day — an 84.90 TrackWiz rating combined with a 57 avg speed figure that leads the field by two ticks make her the standout selection. Trainer James P. DiVito sends her out with Ben Curtis, one of the most accomplished turf riders in the Midwest, and a 14% career win rate in allowance turf company is respectable. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay here for a horse whose numbers suggest she should be closer to even money.

place5Winning StreepML 4/1

Winning Streep (No. 5) rates second in our analysis at 73.05 with a 55 avg speed figure — both solid for a mile turf allowance. Trainer John C. Servis taps Vincent Cheminaud, a jockey with European-style patience who suits a mile on the grass perfectly. A 9% career win rate may look thin, but at 4/1 she's priced like a contender and the model backs that up — she's the most logical running mate for Mechaya in exacta play.

show7Call On MeML 7/2

Call On Me (No. 7) brings a 25% career win rate — second-best in the field — and a 71.13 rating that makes her a legitimate player at 7/2 on the morning line. George R. Arnold II has Cristian A. Torres up, who has had a strong meet at Ellis, and a 54 avg speed figure on the turf is competitive here. She's a horse who knows how to finish races, and that win rate suggests she hits the board regularly — a natural piece of any trifecta you're constructing.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The nightcap is a massive 16-horse maiden special weight on the Ellis turf — an unwieldy full field with first-timers mixed among lightly-raced runners, but Vajra stands out as a dominant model selection and Ginger Ale offers legit exotics value at 6/1.

win9VajraML 7/2

Vajra (No. 9) carries the highest TrackWiz rating on the entire Ellis card at 86.35, an extraordinary number for a maiden turf field, and the morning line respects that with a 7/2 price. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset is one of the premier turf conditioners in North America — his maiden runners on the grass are consistently well-prepared and often come in with European-style foundation work. Cristian A. Torres is an ideal partner, especially in a gate-to-wire scenario on a crowded turf course. A 55 avg speed figure at 5.5 furlongs of turf is exactly in range, and this horse looks like the most legitimate top pick on the closing card.

place2Ginger AleML 6/1

Ginger Ale (No. 2) is our value place play — a 71.84 rating is second in the field by a comfortable margin, and at 6/1 on the morning line she represents real overlay for a horse the model ranks so highly. Trainer Wayne L. Mackey gets Luan Machado in the saddle, who has been reliable at Ellis throughout the meet. A 54 avg speed figure places her squarely in the competitive range for a 5.5-furlong turf sprint, and in a wide-open field of maidens, a horse with this rating gap over the rest should be a strong place player at a generous price.

show8Lady RevengeML 9/2

Lady Revenge (No. 8) checks in with a 54.17 rating and 55 avg speed figure — both competitive in the context of this deep maiden field. Trainer Brian A. Lynch has a strong grass pedigree and Mario Gutierrez is an experienced hand who won't waste the trip. At 9/2 on the morning line, she's not a true overlay, but in a 16-horse field where chaos is almost guaranteed, her combination of a mid-tier rating and quality connections makes her a reliable show anchor and a natural piece in your trifecta wheels.

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Bottom line: Silvertown is the name to circle on the free side, and the premium half of the card — anchored by Get Her Number and Vajra — gives subscribers plenty to work with in the exotics. It's a workmanlike but winnable Friday card at Ellis Park, and we've done the legwork. Full analysis is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck, and let's have a big Friday.

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