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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 26, 2026

July 26, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

Ellis Park is running a full nine-race Sunday card on July 26th, and conditions are about as cooperative as you'll get in late July in Kentucky — overcast skies and a comfortable 84°F keeping the heat from becoming a storyline. That's good news for the horses and good news for us.

Today's card is a nice mix of surfaces and race types: five dirt races, three turf events, and one maiden special weight that draws some genuinely interesting figures. We've got maiden sprints, a pair of allowance spots that should attract sharp money, and a turf allowance optional claiming in Race 8 that already has our attention locked in.

TrackWiz analysis covers all nine races. The first three are free for everyone — including Race 3 on the turf, where Franz Josef is drawing real interest at 3/1 on the morning line. Races 4 through 9 are in the premium tier, and trust us, that's where the card really gets cooking.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile on dirt opens the card, and the TrackWiz ratings spread wide — nearly 47 points separate the top horse from the bottom, giving this one a clearer hierarchy than most maiden openers.

win5Fast GunML 5/2

Fast Gun (5) sits atop our ratings with an 87.81 — a full 11 points clear of the next rival — and comes in from the powerful Steven Asmussen barn with Keith Asmussen up. In an all-maiden field, that kind of rating gap is meaningful. The 5/2 morning line suggests oddsmakers agree this is the horse to beat, and at a mile, a horse with average speed of 53 should have plenty of opportunity to settle and close.

place2Cynical HumorML 5/1

Cynical Humor (2) grades out second in our model at 76.8 and brings the Wesley Ward connection — a barn that knows how to have horses ready first off the trailer. The 5/1 morning line could represent fair value if Ward has this one pointing at this spot. With an average speed of 54, she profiles as a stalker type who could pick up the pieces if the favorite hits any trouble.

show6Magic WomanML 7/2

Magic Woman (6) checks in at 60.99 on our ratings — a solid middle-tier score in this field — and comes in at 7/2 morning line, making her a live exotics player. Robert Medina's runner with Abel Cedillo gives you a recognizable team at an accessible price, and at a mile, pace flow can create opportunities for a third finisher who just has to hang on.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Nine maidens tackle a one-mile dirt route in Race 2, and unlike the opener, the top of the ratings cluster is genuinely tight — four horses sit within two points of each other, setting up a real battle for the superfecta.

win3Ez Miss SassyML 7/2

Ez Miss Sassy (3) earns the top rating in our model at 55.83 and gets the services of Axel Concepcion for the Mark Casse barn — a trainer who wins at a steady clip and knows how to place horses in spots they can handle. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and her average speed of 53 at a mile suits the distance well. In a field this close, Casse's situational awareness gives the edge.

place9RumbelievableML 4/1

Rumbelievable (9) is worth serious attention here — she shows the highest average speed figure in the field at 56, which stands out in a race where most runners are at 53-55. Ian Wilkes has her at 4/1 on the morning line, and Cristian Torres is a capable pilot for the distance. If she gets a good trip on the front end or just off the pace, that speed edge could prove decisive in deep stretch.

show8Bluegrass PrincessML 9/2

Bluegrass Princess (8) brings the Kenneth McPeek barn to the gate alongside Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. — a combination that carries genuine clout at Ellis Park. Our model has her at 54.17, slotting her neatly in the third tier of this field. No recorded average speed figure means she could be coming in fresh and peaking, which is a pattern worth watching.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A turf claiming route that features a genuine ratings standout going against a well-backed favorite — Franz Josef's model score dwarfs the field, but the 9/5 Sugoi makes this a two-horse war worth dissecting.

win6Franz JosefML 3/1

Franz Josef (6) is our top-rated horse in Race 3 at 87.08, and that number jumps off the page in a claiming field. The 3/1 morning line is fair value given the rating edge, and William Antongeorgi III has been getting the most out of horses for the Troy Wismer barn. His 18% career win rate is solid for this level, and the turf surface at 1 1/16 miles sets up perfectly for a horse that profiles as a professional closer.

place4SugoiML 9/5

Sugoi (4) is the market's choice at 9/5, and the 27% career win rate backs the public up — this horse wins at better than one-in-four, which is elite for the claiming ranks. Victor Carrasco is an aggressive jockey who can get horses position on the turf, and the Ismael Bahena barn clearly feels confident at this level. Our model puts her second at 77.05, but she'll need to hold off Franz Josef in the final furlong.

show2Special JusticeML 6/1

Special Justice (2) at 6/1 is the third-rated horse in our model at 65.03 and brings a stellar 27% career win rate — matching Sugoi at the top of the field in that category. Danny Sheehy gets the mount for trainer Thomas Molloy, and on turf, a horse with that win percentage often has surface-specific ability. In a three-horse exotic, she's a smart include at a price that should stay in the 5-1 range.

Our three free races today span both surfaces and give you a solid foundation for the afternoon. Fast Gun opens the card in Race 1 with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest free-race number on the card — making him the most compelling morning selection of the trio. Race 2 brings a wide-open maiden affair where Ez Miss Sassy is our top choice, though the tighter rating cluster signals this one could go any which way. Keep your ticket structures flexible.

Race 3 is the jewel of the free offerings: a mile and a sixteenth on the turf, and Franz Josef at 3/1 carries an 87.08 rating that's backed by legitimate pace projections, not just morning-line optimism. With the turf expected to be in good shape under these cloudy, mild conditions, grass runners who prefer a firm-to-good surface should be in their element. These three races set a strong tone — take them seriously before diving into the premium card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A twelve-horse starter allowance sprint at six furlongs shapes up as a speed-packed affair — with several horses sitting in a narrow 66-70 rating band, the pace scenario is going to matter as much as raw ability.

win4Modern SoundML 4/1

Modern Sound (4) earns our top score in the race at 70.3 and gets Florent Geroux, one of the most accomplished jockeys on the grounds. The Michael Maker barn has a reputation for placing horses precisely, and a 4/1 morning line in a 12-horse field is a reasonable ask. With an average speed of 53 at six furlongs, this horse projects as a tactical type that can sit the right trip behind what could be a hot pace up front.

place11In for a SpinML 6/1

In for a Spin (11) is essentially tied at the top of our ratings at 69.66 and brings Victor Carrasco from the Caio Caramori barn at 6/1 — that's real value for a horse this close to the top of the model. The 12% career win rate is modest, but in a starter allowance field this competitive, a horse that fits the class conditions and rates near the top is dangerous. Carrasco has the tactical sense to exploit a pace duel if one develops.

show5Epic PranksterML 15/1

Epic Prankster (5) is an intriguing show play at 15/1 morning line — a horse our model rates at 69.58, effectively dead-even with the top two. The 33% career win rate is the best of any horse in the field, which suggests when this one gets the conditions it needs, it delivers. Ademar Santos gets a shot on a horse that may be overlooked by the public given the morning line, making it a solid value in the show position and a smart exotics anchor.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Ten first-time starters line up in this maiden special weight sprint, and with nearly every horse lacking a recorded average speed figure, this is a trainer-and-pedigree puzzle — the ratings spread offers some guidance, but expect surprises.

win1SeminalML 3/1

Seminal (1) tops our model at 56.67 for Brad Cox — a Hall of Fame-caliber trainer who consistently ships horses ready to fire first out. Luan Machado takes the mount at 3/1, which is the shortest price on the board and justified by both the rating and the barn. In a maiden sprint where most entrants lack speed figures, Cox's horsemanship in getting first-timers ready is the most bankable angle in the race.

place6Bet On SilverML 7/2

Bet On Silver (6) is our second-rated horse at 55.83 and is one of the few entrants showing an average speed figure — a 55 — which matters enormously in a race of unknowns. Brendan Walsh saddles this one for Ben Curtis at 7/2, and Walsh is another trainer who gets horses fit early. The combination of an existing speed benchmark and a top-tier conditioner makes Bet On Silver a logical exacta partner with Seminal.

show9EverglowML 9/2

Everglow (9) grades out at 54.17 in our model and draws the Erik Asmussen/Steven Asmussen tandem — the barn has two runners in this race, which means they'll be studying their own internal workouts and choosing the better of the two. No recorded average speed figure for Everglow at 9/2 adds some mystery, but Asmussen doesn't run horses without reason, and the morning line implies genuine confidence.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint going 6.5 furlongs on dirt features a rare setup — our top-rated horse is NOT the shortest-priced horse on the board, which immediately flags a value opportunity worth exploring.

win8Moonlight DashML 7/2

Moonlight Dash (8) tops our model at 84.93 despite carrying a 7/2 morning line — sitting behind the 9/5 Nimah in the odds. Martin Garcia brings the mount for Philip Bauer, and the 25% career win rate is strong allowance credentials. The 52 average speed figure is the lowest in the field, but our overall rating tells a more complete story about this horse's quality — expect a run in the stretch when others tire.

place3Overcome AdversityML 3/1

Overcome Adversity (3) is our second-rated horse at 79.98 and draws the 3/1 morning line, making it the second choice in the wagering. Trainer Matt Shirer puts Luan Machado aboard, and the 25% career win rate matches Moonlight Dash at the top of the field in that category. Running 6.5 furlongs on dirt, a horse with an average speed of 54 who rates this high in our model has the profile of a deep closer that can run down tired leaders.

show1Kayla's KometML 15/1

Kayla's Komet (1) is the longshot angle in our show spot — rated 69.58 at 15/1 morning line, which our model flags as significant overlay territory. Gabriel Saez picks up the mount for the W. Bret Calhoun barn, and a 14% career win rate with an average speed of 56 — the highest in the field — hints at a front-running profile that could steal this race if the pace collapses. At 15/1, even a minor placing is a massive return in the exotics.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden sprint on dirt, and this is one of the more evenly matched wide-open maiden fields on the card — only 37.5 points separate our top-rated horse from the sixth-rated runner, so the pace shape and post position could swing this race.

win3OblivionML 5/2

Oblivion (3) leads our model at 57.5 and wears the Bob Baffert silks with Florent Geroux aboard — a pairing that commands attention at any racetrack. The 5/2 morning line reflects genuine market confidence in a barn that has sent out maiden winners at a prolific rate over the years. In a sprint where most horses lack speed figures, Baffert's ability to have first-time starters sharp and ready is the strongest angle in the race.

place10OtzML 9/2

Otz (10) slots in at 54.17 in our ratings for the Brad Cox/Luan Machado combination — two names that carry significant weight at Ellis Park. Cox brings the same first-out readiness that makes Baffert dangerous, and at 9/2 on the morning line, you're getting reasonable value for a horse from one of the top barns in American racing. The outside post works fine in a sprint where a clean break can offset any positional disadvantage.

show7LifesongML 5/1

Lifesong (7) checks in at 53.33 for trainer William Walden with Axel Concepcion in the irons at 5/1. While that morning line is hardly a generous price, the rating puts this horse solidly in the middle tier of a competitive field, and Concepcion is an experienced hand who can navigate a busy maiden sprint without getting into trouble. As a show play in the exotics, Lifesong offers a fair price with a legitimate shot at hitting the board.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A turf allowance optional claiming at 1 1/16 miles draws a full field of twelve, but the TrackWiz model finds a clean standout — Love'm Or Liam's 87.81 rating is a class apart, creating a rare 'single' opportunity in a wide-open grass race.

win3Love'm Or LiamML 5/2

Love'm Or Liam (3) earns the top rating on the entire day's card at 87.81 and steps onto the turf for William Mott — one of the most accomplished turf trainers in North American racing. Jaime Torres picks up the mount at 5/2, and the 18% career win rate is backed by the kind of consistent effort you'd expect from a Mott-trained turf horse. At a mile and a sixteenth, this one has the profile of a horse that will be dangerous turning for home.

place4Tough Little NutML 5/1

Tough Little Nut (4) rates second in our model at 73.21 and is trained by Chris Block, who saddles two horses in this race — suggesting strong stable entries with genuine tactical variety. Brian Hernandez Jr. is one of the top pilots on the grounds, and at 5/1 morning line, there's real value in a horse rated this close to the top of the field. The 11% career win rate is modest, but turf allowance optional claiming races reward horses that handle the conditions, and this one is positioned to fire.

show7Exact EstimateML 7/2

Exact Estimate (7) brings a 23% career win rate — near the top of the field — and rides for Joe Sharp, a trainer who excels on the grass. Ben Curtis takes the mount at 7/2 on a horse rated 73.08 in our model, essentially dead-even with Tough Little Nut. In a 12-horse turf route, traffic trouble is always a factor, and having a horse with Sharp's preparation and a 23% win record as your show play creates solid exacta and trifecta coverage.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The nightcap is a 13-horse maiden claiming mile on turf — a chaotic closing race format where the morning line favorite is 2/1 but our model actually favors a different horse at 8/1, setting up a juicy betting opportunity to end the day.

win12This Beau KnowsML 8/1

This Beau Knows (12) tops our model at 79.79 — nearly 10 points clear of the nearest rival — despite sitting at 8/1 on the morning line. Florent Geroux takes the mount for Chris Block, and while the 8/1 price seems generous for our top-rated horse, that's exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to find. In a maiden claiming turf mile with a big field, a horse with this kind of model edge ridden by a jockey of Geroux's caliber is a genuine best-bet candidate.

place5Prince of LightML 7/2

Prince of Light (5) is essentially tied at the top of our model at 70.05 — just one-hundredth of a point behind Master Sommelier — and comes in at 7/2 for Ben Curtis and Michael Maker. Maker is a top-tier conditioner who regularly fires horses successfully on the turf at Ellis Park, and Curtis is the kind of reliable jockey who won't get a horse into trouble in a big field. An average speed figure of 54 in a maiden claiming turf field gives this horse a legitimate edge.

show4Master SommelierML 2/1

Master Sommelier (4) is the 2/1 morning line favorite and rates 70.04 in our model — a hair behind Prince of Light but clearly one of the top contenders. Edgar Morales gets the mount for Andrew McKeever, and while the odds are short for a show bet, the horse's position at the top of the morning line reflects genuine form. In a 13-horse field on turf where chaos is guaranteed, having the favorite as your show play in a trifecta is smart coverage.

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Bottom line: this is a well-rounded Sunday card with legitimate plays across both surfaces. Fast Gun and Franz Josef are the marquee free selections, and the premium races bring Love'm Or Liam and a tantalizing longshot angle in Race 9 into the mix. Three free races give you a real head start — subscribers get the rest of the story. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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