Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 26, 2026

Sugoi (4) is the market's choice at 9/5, and the 27% career win rate backs the public up — this horse wins at better than one-in-four, which is elite for the claiming ranks. Victor Carrasco is an aggressive jockey who can get horses position on the turf, and the Ismael Bahena barn clearly feels confident at this level. Our model puts her second at 77.05, but she'll need to hold off Franz Josef in the final furlong.

Special Justice (2) at 6/1 is the third-rated horse in our model at 65.03 and brings a stellar 27% career win rate — matching Sugoi at the top of the field in that category. Danny Sheehy gets the mount for trainer Thomas Molloy, and on turf, a horse with that win percentage often has surface-specific ability. In a three-horse exotic, she's a smart include at a price that should stay in the 5-1 range.

In for a Spin (11) is essentially tied at the top of our ratings at 69.66 and brings Victor Carrasco from the Caio Caramori barn at 6/1 — that's real value for a horse this close to the top of the model. The 12% career win rate is modest, but in a starter allowance field this competitive, a horse that fits the class conditions and rates near the top is dangerous. Carrasco has the tactical sense to exploit a pace duel if one develops.

Epic Prankster (5) is an intriguing show play at 15/1 morning line — a horse our model rates at 69.58, effectively dead-even with the top two. The 33% career win rate is the best of any horse in the field, which suggests when this one gets the conditions it needs, it delivers. Ademar Santos gets a shot on a horse that may be overlooked by the public given the morning line, making it a solid value in the show position and a smart exotics anchor.

Bet On Silver (6) is our second-rated horse at 55.83 and is one of the few entrants showing an average speed figure — a 55 — which matters enormously in a race of unknowns. Brendan Walsh saddles this one for Ben Curtis at 7/2, and Walsh is another trainer who gets horses fit early. The combination of an existing speed benchmark and a top-tier conditioner makes Bet On Silver a logical exacta partner with Seminal.

Everglow (9) grades out at 54.17 in our model and draws the Erik Asmussen/Steven Asmussen tandem — the barn has two runners in this race, which means they'll be studying their own internal workouts and choosing the better of the two. No recorded average speed figure for Everglow at 9/2 adds some mystery, but Asmussen doesn't run horses without reason, and the morning line implies genuine confidence.

Overcome Adversity (3) is our second-rated horse at 79.98 and draws the 3/1 morning line, making it the second choice in the wagering. Trainer Matt Shirer puts Luan Machado aboard, and the 25% career win rate matches Moonlight Dash at the top of the field in that category. Running 6.5 furlongs on dirt, a horse with an average speed of 54 who rates this high in our model has the profile of a deep closer that can run down tired leaders.

Kayla's Komet (1) is the longshot angle in our show spot — rated 69.58 at 15/1 morning line, which our model flags as significant overlay territory. Gabriel Saez picks up the mount for the W. Bret Calhoun barn, and a 14% career win rate with an average speed of 56 — the highest in the field — hints at a front-running profile that could steal this race if the pace collapses. At 15/1, even a minor placing is a massive return in the exotics.

Otz (10) slots in at 54.17 in our ratings for the Brad Cox/Luan Machado combination — two names that carry significant weight at Ellis Park. Cox brings the same first-out readiness that makes Baffert dangerous, and at 9/2 on the morning line, you're getting reasonable value for a horse from one of the top barns in American racing. The outside post works fine in a sprint where a clean break can offset any positional disadvantage.

Lifesong (7) checks in at 53.33 for trainer William Walden with Axel Concepcion in the irons at 5/1. While that morning line is hardly a generous price, the rating puts this horse solidly in the middle tier of a competitive field, and Concepcion is an experienced hand who can navigate a busy maiden sprint without getting into trouble. As a show play in the exotics, Lifesong offers a fair price with a legitimate shot at hitting the board.

Tough Little Nut (4) rates second in our model at 73.21 and is trained by Chris Block, who saddles two horses in this race — suggesting strong stable entries with genuine tactical variety. Brian Hernandez Jr. is one of the top pilots on the grounds, and at 5/1 morning line, there's real value in a horse rated this close to the top of the field. The 11% career win rate is modest, but turf allowance optional claiming races reward horses that handle the conditions, and this one is positioned to fire.

Exact Estimate (7) brings a 23% career win rate — near the top of the field — and rides for Joe Sharp, a trainer who excels on the grass. Ben Curtis takes the mount at 7/2 on a horse rated 73.08 in our model, essentially dead-even with Tough Little Nut. In a 12-horse turf route, traffic trouble is always a factor, and having a horse with Sharp's preparation and a 23% win record as your show play creates solid exacta and trifecta coverage.

Prince of Light (5) is essentially tied at the top of our model at 70.05 — just one-hundredth of a point behind Master Sommelier — and comes in at 7/2 for Ben Curtis and Michael Maker. Maker is a top-tier conditioner who regularly fires horses successfully on the turf at Ellis Park, and Curtis is the kind of reliable jockey who won't get a horse into trouble in a big field. An average speed figure of 54 in a maiden claiming turf field gives this horse a legitimate edge.

Master Sommelier (4) is the 2/1 morning line favorite and rates 70.04 in our model — a hair behind Prince of Light but clearly one of the top contenders. Edgar Morales gets the mount for Andrew McKeever, and while the odds are short for a show bet, the horse's position at the top of the morning line reflects genuine form. In a 13-horse field on turf where chaos is guaranteed, having the favorite as your show play in a trifecta is smart coverage.