Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

Siesta Key at 2/1 is trained by Brad H. Cox — one of the top conditioners in the country — and ridden by Florent Geroux, an elite jockey who excels on turf. The 86.9 TrackWiz rating is just a hair behind Mountain Bear, and a 20% career win rate gives this horse a proven win profile. This is a horse that can track a fast pace and pounce late, making it an ideal candidate to land the place spot even if the Irish invader proves best.

Seal Bay is the value play of Race 3, offering 10/1 odds against a 76.88 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 33% — the joint-best in this field. Trainer Ed Moger Jr. and jockey Summer Pauly aren't household names, which explains the price, but the numbers are there. In a turf race where pace can get complicated, a horse with that win percentage and a solid rating at double-digit odds deserves at least show action in your exotics.

Grace Marie at 5/1 brings the Brad H. Cox connection — and Cox's maiden runners are among the most reliable first-out horses in the country. Florent Geroux, one of the premier jockeys in the region, takes the mount, and the 53.33 TrackWiz rating slots in as second-best in the field. For a horse with no prior speed data, the trainer-jockey combination alone elevates the confidence level here.

Ciarlatano at 6/1 ties with Elewene for the third-highest rating in the race at 51.67, but the nod goes here based on the Brittany A. Vanden Berg and Christopher A. Emigh pairing, which has been quietly productive at Ellis. With no avgSpeed data available, the rating and connections are the story — and at 6/1, Ciarlatano represents real show value in a race where the favorite pool is thin.

Snubbed is the public's 2/1 choice and brings a 58.33 TrackWiz rating — solid but meaningfully below Wartime. Trainer Paul J. McGee and jockey Edgar Morales form a workmanlike combo, and the favorite tag will attract dollars regardless. If Wartime wins, Snubbed's pace profile still puts it in contention for the place spot, and that's the primary reason to include it in your exacta and trifecta coverage.

Modern Legacy at 5/2 sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and connects with trainer Eoin G. Harty — a conditioner who specializes in turf horses and consistently gets early-career runners ready to perform. Jockey Alex Achard adds polish to the entry. Without prior speed data, this is a ratings-and-connections play, and the morning-line price is fair enough to warrant show inclusion in your exotics.

Flick at 12/1 is the place value play of the race, carrying a 61.36 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field at nearly six times its morning-line odds. Trainer Michael A. Tomlinson sends this one out with Gabriel Saez, a respected veteran who consistently produces at Ellis. An avgSpeed of 54 suggests Flick has real ability, and in a field this large, a horse with solid ratings at a double-digit price is exactly where you want to find value in exactas.

Puteketeke at 10/1 checks in with a 60.68 TrackWiz rating — third in this field — under trainer Michael J. Maker, who is one of the most reliable conditioners in the mid-South circuit. Danny Sheehy gets the call, and his comfort at Ellis Park is well established. In a 15-horse field where chaos is likely, a horse with a legitimate top-three rating at double-digit odds is a must-use show horse in your trifecta tickets.

Next Up at 9/2 is a TrackWiz darling with an 82.02 rating and the backing of trainer Matthew P. Sims, who also sends out a second runner in this field — a sign he feels good about the distance and surface. Mario Gutierrez has the call, and a 16% career win rate on a turf router profile suggests a horse that runs consistently well without always hitting the wire first. That profile screams place horse in a field this competitive.

Chopsticks at 5/2 is the most intriguing horse in the race on pure win-rate grounds — a 50% career win percentage is extraordinary and demands attention regardless of the odds. Trainer Brad H. Cox and jockey Florent Geroux form one of the top pairings in the country, and the 67.9 TrackWiz rating is third in the field. If Chopsticks runs to its win-rate history, it will likely factor — and at 5/2, it's a comfortable show anchor for your trifecta tickets.

Gearing Up at 5/1 gives you a 66.05 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. aboard for trainer George R. Arnold II — a proven Ellis Park outfit. The avgSpeed of 55 keeps this horse right in the mix, and at 5/1, there's genuine place value if Show Time handles things out front. Hernandez Jr. rarely takes mounts he doesn't expect to run well, and that's a meaningful signal here.

Trouble Time at 6/1 slots in as the show pick with a 63.08 TrackWiz rating, a 33% career win rate, and Florent Geroux in the irons — a combination that's hard to dismiss. Trainer Nicholas Vaccarezza has this horse fit enough to compete at the allowance level, and the avgSpeed of 56 matches the top horses in the field. A 33% career win rate is elite territory and suggests this horse converts when conditions line up — don't leave it off your trifecta tickets.

Union Rose at 5/2 brings a 57.5 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and an avgSpeed of 54 to match Daring Madison's speed baseline. Trainer William D. Cowans and jockey Luan Machado keep a solid partnership at the Ellis level, and the morning-line price suggests the public views this as the clear second choice. In a 14-horse field, pace can get messy, and Union Rose's profile lines up well for a place finish behind the top selection.

Lexico at 5/1 is a legitimate show play with a 57.38 TrackWiz rating — just a tick below Union Rose — and the backing of trainer Donald J. Habeeb with Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. Bejarano is one of the most experienced turf jockeys in the region and typically earns his mount in maiden turf routes. The avgSpeed of 52 is modest, suggesting a closer profile that could benefit from a fast pace up front — exactly the scenario this large field tends to produce.