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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

July 25, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

Ellis Park is rolling out a nine-race card on a beautiful Saturday afternoon — partly cloudy skies, 77°F, and the kind of weather that keeps the dirt surface honest and the turf course playing true. No excuses for anyone today.

The card is a nice mix of conditions: you've got maiden claimers to kick things off, a pair of maiden special weights, allowance company, and turf routes sprinkled throughout the afternoon. Plenty of angles to attack from every direction.

Three races are open to every TrackWiz reader, and our analysis on those alone gives you a solid foundation for the day. The full nine-race breakdown — pace projections, exotic strategies, and the deeper dives — is waiting for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming mile where TrackWiz ratings create a clear two-tier split — Star Saver sits well above the field, but Props and Snowdrift offer legitimate threats in a race that could turn into a late-running affair.

win5Star SaverML 2/1

Star Saver draws the eye immediately with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest in this field by a comfortable margin. Trained by Aaron M. West and piloted by Jaime A. Torres, this one lands at a 2/1 morning line that reflects the public's respect. The avgSpeed of 53 ties several rivals, but the overall profile suggests a more complete horse who should be able to control or track the pace over the mile distance on dirt.

place2PropsML 5/1

Props, under Erik Asmussen for the powerful Steven M. Asmussen barn, checks in with a 75.01 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field and a meaningful gap above the rest. The Asmussen operation consistently fires with runners at this level, and Erik Asmussen has been developing his book of business at Ellis. At 5/1, Props offers genuine place value if Star Saver dominates up front.

show7SnowdriftML 9/2

Snowdrift at 9/2 is worth a spot in your exotics under trainer Brendan P. Walsh, who knows how to condition a first-time or lightly-raced horse for a distance like this. A 53.31 TrackWiz rating and an avgSpeed of 53 keep Snowdrift in the pace conversation, and Walsh's horses often run better than their morning lines suggest on debut or early starts.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The Starter Allowance at 6½ furlongs sets up as a two-horse battle at the top, with Attersee and Send Cash towering over a modest field — but Inordinary is a sneaky show play at a massive price.

win6AtterseeML EVN

Attersee opens as the even-money favorite and backs it up with an 85.43 TrackWiz rating, the best in the field. Trained by Norm W. Casse and ridden by Cristian A. Torres, this horse shows an avgSpeed of 55 and has established class at this level. The even-money price on a 6½-furlong Starter Allowance suggests a horse with tactical speed and the ability to convert — the TrackWiz number supports the market here.

place5Send CashML 2/1

Send Cash is the natural backup at 2/1 with a 78.11 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — tied for the best in this field. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. gets the call for trainer David Fawkes, and that's a jockey who doesn't come cheap. The avgSpeed of 57 is the highest in the race, meaning Send Cash has the raw speed to press Attersee and potentially blow past if the favorite gets too far out on its own.

show3InordinaryML 15/1

Inordinary is the show sleeper of the card at 15/1 morning line, sporting a 69.58 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in this field — well above that price tag. Trainer Jack Sisterson and jockey Adam Beschizza combine for a horse that has clearly earned its spot in this company. If the top two battle each other into submission, Inordinary is positioned to scoop up a share.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A turf claiming mile with a fascinating pace picture — two horses rated above 86 are squaring off near the top of the market, while Seal Bay lurks as a legitimate show-price value at 10/1 with a sparkling career win record.

win5Mountain Bear (IRE)ML 6/5

Mountain Bear (IRE) brings an 88.61 TrackWiz rating — the top number in this field — and opens as the 6/5 morning-line favorite under trainer Wesley A. Ward, one of the sport's premier turf conditioners. Ward's grass horses routinely outrun their form lines on American ovals, and jockey Yedsit Hazlewood gets a live shot here. The avgSpeed of 55 matches the best in the field, and the Irish pedigree adds an extra layer of turf confidence over the 1 1/16-mile distance.

place4Siesta KeyML 2/1

Siesta Key at 2/1 is trained by Brad H. Cox — one of the top conditioners in the country — and ridden by Florent Geroux, an elite jockey who excels on turf. The 86.9 TrackWiz rating is just a hair behind Mountain Bear, and a 20% career win rate gives this horse a proven win profile. This is a horse that can track a fast pace and pounce late, making it an ideal candidate to land the place spot even if the Irish invader proves best.

show7Seal BayML 10/1

Seal Bay is the value play of Race 3, offering 10/1 odds against a 76.88 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 33% — the joint-best in this field. Trainer Ed Moger Jr. and jockey Summer Pauly aren't household names, which explains the price, but the numbers are there. In a turf race where pace can get complicated, a horse with that win percentage and a solid rating at double-digit odds deserves at least show action in your exotics.

Our three free best bets today span dirt and turf, short and long, and cover a real range of race types. Star Saver draws our eye in Race 1, a maiden claimer going a flat mile on dirt — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating at 2/1 morning line is exactly the kind of play we like to lead with. In Race 2, Attersee goes off at even money in the Starter Allowance at 6½ furlongs, and even-money favorites in this spot deserve respect when the numbers back them up. Race 3 shifts to the turf for a mile and a sixteenth claiming event, where Mountain Bear (IRE) checks in with an 88.61 rating at 6/5 — the Irish-bred turf angle on a firm summer course is a legitimate edge.

With the partly cloudy conditions keeping the temperature comfortable, there's no weather-related bias working against anyone in these early races. The pace scenarios should play out honestly, which tends to favor horses with clean, forward-moving form — a thread you'll notice running through all three free selections.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A large field of maiden optional claimers going 5½ furlongs on dirt — mostly first-timers with no avgSpeed data to lean on, which makes the TrackWiz ratings the primary separator in a wide-open sprint.

win7Lady LuxML 2/1

Lady Lux opens at 2/1 and leads all runners in TrackWiz rating at 58.33, the only horse in this field with recorded avgSpeed data at 55 — a meaningful edge when most rivals are a complete unknown. Trainer Genaro Garcia sends her out with Amir Mendoza aboard, and the public clearly respects this one at the morning line. In a race where the field is largely unproven, having any kind of speed baseline is a significant advantage.

place2Grace MarieML 5/1

Grace Marie at 5/1 brings the Brad H. Cox connection — and Cox's maiden runners are among the most reliable first-out horses in the country. Florent Geroux, one of the premier jockeys in the region, takes the mount, and the 53.33 TrackWiz rating slots in as second-best in the field. For a horse with no prior speed data, the trainer-jockey combination alone elevates the confidence level here.

show11CiarlatanoML 6/1

Ciarlatano at 6/1 ties with Elewene for the third-highest rating in the race at 51.67, but the nod goes here based on the Brittany A. Vanden Berg and Christopher A. Emigh pairing, which has been quietly productive at Ellis. With no avgSpeed data available, the rating and connections are the story — and at 6/1, Ciarlatano represents real show value in a race where the favorite pool is thin.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden special weight turf sprint where the morning-line favorite is NOT the top-rated horse — Wartime at 6/1 is a TrackWiz standout against a short-priced field that may be over-bet on less compelling profiles.

win6WartimeML 6/1

Wartime carries an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — by far the highest in this field — yet opens at 6/1 morning line, suggesting the market hasn't fully caught up to what our analysis shows. Trained by Steven M. Asmussen and ridden by Erik Asmussen, this is a horse with both an elite rating and recorded avgSpeed of 55, one of only two runners with any speed baseline. On a 5½-furlong turf sprint where early pace matters, Wartime's profile screams value over the bet-down morning-line horses.

place1SnubbedML 2/1

Snubbed is the public's 2/1 choice and brings a 58.33 TrackWiz rating — solid but meaningfully below Wartime. Trainer Paul J. McGee and jockey Edgar Morales form a workmanlike combo, and the favorite tag will attract dollars regardless. If Wartime wins, Snubbed's pace profile still puts it in contention for the place spot, and that's the primary reason to include it in your exacta and trifecta coverage.

show5Modern LegacyML 5/2

Modern Legacy at 5/2 sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and connects with trainer Eoin G. Harty — a conditioner who specializes in turf horses and consistently gets early-career runners ready to perform. Jockey Alex Achard adds polish to the entry. Without prior speed data, this is a ratings-and-connections play, and the morning-line price is fair enough to warrant show inclusion in your exotics.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

Ellis Park's largest field of the day — 15 runners in a 7-furlong maiden special weight on dirt — creates a chaotic pace scenario, and the top TrackWiz number belongs to a double-digit morning-line horse while the chalk appears overrated by the market.

win13DontworryboutnothnML 6/1

Dontworryboutnothn opens at 6/1 and carries an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this massive field by a notable margin. Trainer David Jacobson keeps a well-organized operation, and jockey Yedsit Hazlewood has been picking up live mounts at Ellis all meet. The avgSpeed of 56 matches the best in the field and supports the idea that this horse can press or set the pace in a seven-furlong dirt sprint, which often favors horses with early speed and a strong foundation.

place4FlickML 12/1

Flick at 12/1 is the place value play of the race, carrying a 61.36 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field at nearly six times its morning-line odds. Trainer Michael A. Tomlinson sends this one out with Gabriel Saez, a respected veteran who consistently produces at Ellis. An avgSpeed of 54 suggests Flick has real ability, and in a field this large, a horse with solid ratings at a double-digit price is exactly where you want to find value in exactas.

show9PuteketekeML 10/1

Puteketeke at 10/1 checks in with a 60.68 TrackWiz rating — third in this field — under trainer Michael J. Maker, who is one of the most reliable conditioners in the mid-South circuit. Danny Sheehy gets the call, and his comfort at Ellis Park is well established. In a 15-horse field where chaos is likely, a horse with a legitimate top-three rating at double-digit odds is a must-use show horse in your trifecta tickets.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The turf allowance optional claiming at 1 1/16 miles features three horses rated above 80 in an eight-horse field — Good Long Cry leads the TrackWiz board but faces a strong challenge from Next Up, while Chopsticks presents a fascinating pace angle as a 50% career winner.

win8Good Long CryML 7/2

Good Long Cry tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and opens at a fair 7/2 morning line under trainer George Weaver, a conditioner with a strong track record developing turf horses. Jockey Danny Sheehy knows this course, and the 23% career win rate gives this horse a proven ability to close the deal — important in an allowance optional claiming field where competition is legitimate. The avgSpeed of 54 is competitive, and the rating gap over the rest of the field makes Good Long Cry a confident top selection.

place1Next UpML 9/2

Next Up at 9/2 is a TrackWiz darling with an 82.02 rating and the backing of trainer Matthew P. Sims, who also sends out a second runner in this field — a sign he feels good about the distance and surface. Mario Gutierrez has the call, and a 16% career win rate on a turf router profile suggests a horse that runs consistently well without always hitting the wire first. That profile screams place horse in a field this competitive.

show5ChopsticksML 5/2

Chopsticks at 5/2 is the most intriguing horse in the race on pure win-rate grounds — a 50% career win percentage is extraordinary and demands attention regardless of the odds. Trainer Brad H. Cox and jockey Florent Geroux form one of the top pairings in the country, and the 67.9 TrackWiz rating is third in the field. If Chopsticks runs to its win-rate history, it will likely factor — and at 5/2, it's a comfortable show anchor for your trifecta tickets.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A loaded allowance sprint at 6½ furlongs on dirt where the top TrackWiz number aligns with a horse carrying a 32% career win rate — Show Time looks like a legitimate single, but Gearing Up and Trouble Time offer compelling backup credentials.

win2Show TimeML 4/1

Show Time at 4/1 is the TrackWiz top pick here with an 85.62 rating and a 32% career win rate — among the best in the field. Trainer David Jacobson and jockey Rafael Bejarano have combined for sharp results at Ellis this season, and the avgSpeed of 56 is tied for the best in the race. For a 6½-furlong allowance on dirt, a horse with that kind of win percentage and elite speed figures is a strong play to hit the board first.

place8Gearing UpML 5/1

Gearing Up at 5/1 gives you a 66.05 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. aboard for trainer George R. Arnold II — a proven Ellis Park outfit. The avgSpeed of 55 keeps this horse right in the mix, and at 5/1, there's genuine place value if Show Time handles things out front. Hernandez Jr. rarely takes mounts he doesn't expect to run well, and that's a meaningful signal here.

show1Trouble TimeML 6/1

Trouble Time at 6/1 slots in as the show pick with a 63.08 TrackWiz rating, a 33% career win rate, and Florent Geroux in the irons — a combination that's hard to dismiss. Trainer Nicholas Vaccarezza has this horse fit enough to compete at the allowance level, and the avgSpeed of 56 matches the top horses in the field. A 33% career win rate is elite territory and suggests this horse converts when conditions line up — don't leave it off your trifecta tickets.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse maiden claiming field on turf at a mile — Daring Madison is an overwhelming TrackWiz standout at nearly 32 points clear of the next competitor, but the wide field and chaotic pace scenario create real opportunities for place and show value underneath.

win4Daring MadisonML 7/5

Daring Madison leads all 14 runners with an 89.42 TrackWiz rating and opens at 7/5 morning line — the market agrees this one is the class of the field. Trained by Philip A. Bauer and ridden by Jaime A. Torres, this horse shows a 54 avgSpeed and figures to control or track the pace in a turf mile. In a field where no other horse cracks 58 on the TrackWiz scale, Daring Madison is a justifiable single in win bets and the anchor of your multi-horse exotics.

place8Union RoseML 5/2

Union Rose at 5/2 brings a 57.5 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and an avgSpeed of 54 to match Daring Madison's speed baseline. Trainer William D. Cowans and jockey Luan Machado keep a solid partnership at the Ellis level, and the morning-line price suggests the public views this as the clear second choice. In a 14-horse field, pace can get messy, and Union Rose's profile lines up well for a place finish behind the top selection.

show10LexicoML 5/1

Lexico at 5/1 is a legitimate show play with a 57.38 TrackWiz rating — just a tick below Union Rose — and the backing of trainer Donald J. Habeeb with Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. Bejarano is one of the most experienced turf jockeys in the region and typically earns his mount in maiden turf routes. The avgSpeed of 52 is modest, suggesting a closer profile that could benefit from a fast pace up front — exactly the scenario this large field tends to produce.

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Bottom line for today at Ellis Park: Star Saver, Attersee, and Mountain Bear (IRE) are the free best bets anchoring the early card, and all three are backed by TrackWiz ratings in the high 80s. The turf is playing fair, the weather is cooperating, and there's real value hiding deeper in this card — especially on the premium side where Daring Madison and Wartime stand out. Subscribers get the complete nine-race breakdown, pace scenarios, and exotic ticket recommendations. Don't miss it — full analysis is live now for TrackWiz members.

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