Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 24, 2026

Friday, July 24, 20269 racesEllis Park

Ellis Park is open for business on a comfortable Friday afternoon — 78°F with partly cloudy skies, which is about as good as it gets for a mid-July card in Kentucky. No heat-of-the-day concerns messing with the turf, and conditions look favorable for consistent footing on both surfaces.

Nine races are on the board today, splitting time between the dirt and a busy turf schedule that features four grass events. The card blends maiden races, claiming action, and allowance company, giving you plenty of angles to work across different levels of competition.

TrackWiz analysis has flagged some intriguing spots today — a short-priced maiden on the dirt who projects to dominate, a pair of turf allowance runners with strong ratings, and a few spots where the morning line looks beatable. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite isn't our top pick in this 7-furlong dirt claimer — Fast Joker's TrackWiz rating leads the field despite modest win numbers, setting up a potential overlay situation at 5/1.

win3Fast JokerML 5/1

Fast Joker (5/1) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 — a significant margin over the rest of the horses. The Gustavo Esquivel trainee hasn't won often (6% career win rate), but ratings-based models often identify horses whose form is better than raw win percentages suggest. Rafael Bejarano gets the call, and he's a savvy pilot who knows how to get the most out of a developing horse at this level. At 5/1 on the morning line, if this one fires, there's real value in the win pool.

place5Frosted BullML 6/1

Frosted Bull (6/1) slots in as our place pick with a solid 73.38 TrackWiz rating and matching average speed figure with the top selection. Trainer Helen Pitts sends this one out with Jaime A. Torres up, and a 9% career win rate in a claiming field like this one means Frosted Bull is capable of hitting the board at a price worth including in exacta combinations.

show1Bird the LegendML 3/1

Bird the Legend is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and earns that with a 25% career win percentage — the best in the field by a wide margin. Rodolphe Brisset is a sharp conditioner and Luan Machado is a reliable pilot, so while the TrackWiz model has this one third behind two overlays, Bird the Legend's win record makes a board finish very likely. A strong show option and a key piece in any multi-race exotic.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden optional claimer on the turf with a 12-horse field full of first-time starters and lightly-raced types — trainer connections and pedigree will drive the wagering more than form here.

win11Battlefield HeroML 5/2

Battlefield Hero (5/2) gets the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.50 and carries significant trainer clout — Wesley A. Ward is one of the most decorated turf trainers in the country, particularly with first-time starters going short on grass. The 5/2 morning line reflects the sharp money that typically follows Ward juveniles, and Yedsit Hazlewood gets the mount. In a field where most runners have no speed figures on record, the Ward name alone gives this one a meaningful edge.

place4King CrusherML 3/1

King Crusher (3/1) checks in just behind the top pick with a 56.67 rating and the added benefit of some recorded form — an average speed figure of 54 is meaningful in a field loaded with first-timers. George Weaver is a well-regarded trainer and Gabriel Saez brings experience and winning instincts. At 3/1, this one makes sense underneath as a place play in exactas.

show12LagosML 4/1

Lagos (4/1) rounds out the TrackWiz top three at 55.0, trained by Michael J. Maker — a man who has a long history of running well-bred turf horses fresh. The 4/1 morning line gives some value, and in a field this large and unpredictable, having Maker's name attached to a show play is comfortable insurance in your exotic tickets.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Steven Asmussen sends out a clear class standout in this maiden claimer on the dirt mile, and the TrackWiz model agrees — Relevate enters as a heavy chalk with a dominant rating edge.

win4RelevateML 8/5

Relevate (8/5) owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at a commanding 89.12 — nearly 20 points clear of the second-ranked horse. Keith J. Asmussen takes the mount for his father Steven M. Asmussen, and this barn knows how to aim horses for spots where they can dominate. The 53 average speed figure is in line with the field, but the overall rating suggests there's more underneath the hood than raw numbers show. At 8/5, this is the kind of horse you build your tickets around.

place2Total FabricationML 3/1

Total Fabrication (3/1) is the clear second choice in our model at 69.11 and draws Rafael Bejarano, one of the more accomplished riders on the Ellis Park circuit. Trained by Ron Moquett — a regional trainer who knows how to place horses — this one brings a 53 average speed figure and gets the rail post. A legitimate place threat that makes sense in exactas beneath the favorite.

show3Bullet BabyML 4/1

Bullet Baby (4/1) is the third-ranked horse in the field at 60.83 and represents the lower end of a solid top three. Edgar Morales gets the call for trainer Robert W. Radcliffe, and while there's daylight between this one and the top two in the ratings, the 4/1 morning line makes a show bet or trifecta inclusion worth considering in what could be a pace-influenced mile.

Three races are unlocked for every reader today, and they cover a nice cross-section of the card. Fast Joker opens things up in Race 1, a 7-furlong dirt claiming race where our model has him rated 84.17 — solid for this level and worth tracking as a pace-setter or stalker type at 5/1 on the morning line. Then in Race 2, Battlefield Hero draws the eye on the turf sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs — maiden optional claiming on grass can get chaotic, but our top rating gives him the edge.

The crown jewel of the free picks is Relevate in Race 3 — an 8/5 morning-line favorite in the mile maiden claiming on dirt who carries our highest rating of the free group at 89.12. When a horse rates that cleanly at a mile on dirt and the chalk is still under 2/1, that's a horse the market already respects. The partly cloudy conditions and mild temps today mean the track surface should stay consistent throughout the afternoon, which benefits horses whose form is built on reliable footing.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A deep 14-horse maiden special weight on the turf where first-out types dominate the field — this one is wide open, and trainer pedigree matters as much as anything else on the program.

win10EtnaML 3/1

Etna (3/1) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 56.67 and brings the added edge of an actual speed figure — a 55 average, which stands out when most rivals have no recorded times at all. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a consistent presence at Ellis Park and knows how to have horses ready first out on turf. Axel Concepcion gets the mount, and the 3/1 morning line feels accurate given the credentials.

place8R Last LaughML 7/2

R Last Laugh (7/2) comes in just behind with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and the backing of trainer Brendan P. Walsh — a barn with a strong reputation for developing turf horses. Luan Machado is a confident jockey and the 7/2 morning line suggests some public support. Without a prior speed figure, there's inherent uncertainty, but the Walsh-Machado combo makes this a solid place play in your exotics.

show1ViaggioML 9/2

Viaggio (9/2) rounds out the TrackWiz top three at 54.17 for trainer Mark E. Casse, who rarely runs horses without a plan — especially in maiden turf events. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount, and while neither horse nor rider stands out as a headline act, Casse's winning percentage with first-time turf starters is always worth respecting. A show ticket or trifecta inclusion makes sense at this price.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A competitive one-mile dirt claimer featuring three horses with legitimate ratings above 77 — this is a genuine three-way battle at the top, and the value might not be with the shortest price.

win6Cora's LegacyML 3/1

Cora's Legacy (3/1) earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.33 and represents a genuine overlay opportunity over the morning line favorite. Trainer Felipe Nickel sends this one out with Amir Mendoza, and while Nickel doesn't carry a household name, the horse's rating says it belongs at the top of this field. A 13% career win rate in a claiming field is workmanlike, but the raw rating edge is hard to ignore — this is our best bet of the race.

place2Country ClubML 2/1

Country Club (2/1) is the morning line favorite for good reason — a 28% career win percentage is the best in the field, and Rodolphe Brisset is a sharp trainer who puts horses in positions to succeed. Luan Machado pilots, and this duo has had success together at Ellis Park. The 82.26 TrackWiz rating confirms this one belongs near the top, even if we've ranked it second for the win.

show3Hearts UnitedML 5/1

Hearts United (5/1) fills out the show position with a 77.89 TrackWiz rating — comfortably above the rest of the field outside the top two. Alberto Burgos gets the mount for trainer Jose Orantes, and the 16% career win rate at claiming level is solid. At 5/1, the price is fair and this one makes good sense as a show bet or third piece in your trifecta.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The allowance turf mile looks like a race with a clear standout — My Stubborn Lassie brings a dominant rating and career win percentage that separates her from the rest of the field.

win6My Stubborn LassieML 5/2

My Stubborn Lassie (5/2) is as close to a confident selection as you'll find on the card today — a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, a 33% career win rate, and the top average speed figure in the field at 55. Trainer Peter Eurton ships this one in, and Ben Curtis — one of the better turf riders working — gets the call. The 5/2 morning line keeps the price fair, and in an allowance field on the grass, a horse with this combination of rating, win percentage, and speed doesn't come along often at single-digit odds.

place3DagmaraML 3/1

Dagmara (3/1) is a clear second in the TrackWiz model at 67.17, trained by Brad H. Cox — one of the top conditioners in the country. Luan Machado gets the mount, and a 16% career win rate on the turf at allowance level is respectable. Cox rarely runs horses that aren't ready, and Dagmara makes a logical place play and key exacta partner with the top selection.

show7Temple GoddessML 4/1

Temple Goddess (4/1) rounds out the top three at 60.09 with a 54 average speed figure that matches the better horses in this race. Trainer Jimmy Corrigan doesn't always get headlines, but Danny Sheehy guides this one and the 4/1 morning line represents fair value for a show ticket or trifecta spot. The 7% career win rate is modest, but at allowance level, horses like this can find board finishes even without consistent victories.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An interesting allowance optional claimer on the dirt mile where our model disagrees with the morning line — the 2/1 favorite Consequent isn't our top pick, and there's potential value at the top of the board.

win3Sassy PrincessML 4/1

Sassy Princess (4/1) leads our model at 85.62 and brings an impressive 30% career win percentage to the table — one of the better records in the field. Francisco Arrieta rides for trainer David Jacobson, and the 53 average speed figure is consistent with the competitive middle of this field. The morning line has her at 4/1, which means she's an overlay against the 2/1 public choice — and that's exactly where the value lives in allowance races.

place1BilyanaML 12/1

Bilyana (12/1) is our longshot value play in the place spot, and the case is genuinely compelling — a 33% career win percentage is the joint-best in this field, and a 56 average speed figure is the highest posted number among all six runners. Trainer Eric N. Foster sends this one out with Yedsit Hazlewood, and at 12/1 on the morning line, the market is clearly underestimating what the figures say. If Bilyana runs to her speed figures, the overlay is massive.

show2Union MistML 7/2

Union Mist (7/2) is trained by Brendan P. Walsh and ridden by Ben Curtis — a pair that always commands attention in these spots. The 63.85 TrackWiz rating ranks third in the field and the 9% career win rate is the one knock, but in an allowance optional claimer with a small field, the quality of the connections matters. A show bet or trifecta inclusion at 7/2 makes sense as a reliable underneath piece.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open allowance turf route where two horses share the top TrackWiz rating — the tiebreaker comes down to pace scenario, connections, and which one fires first on the grass.

win1Patrol Squad SixML 7/2

Patrol Squad Six (7/2) shares the top TrackWiz rating of 85.62 with Sharons Pharoah but gets our win nod based on a slight edge in average speed figures — 55 vs. 54 — and the backing of trainer Dale L. Romans, who has won at Ellis Park more times than most can count. Martin Garcia takes the mount and knows this track well. At 7/2, the price is honest for a horse with this profile in an allowance turf mile and a sixteenth.

place5Sharons PharoahML 4/1

Sharons Pharoah (4/1) matches the top rating exactly at 85.62 and brings a remarkable 33% career win percentage — the best in the field. Ben Curtis rides for trainer Jonathan Thomas, and this horse's win record suggests that when it's right, it wins — making a place finish highly probable even if it doesn't take down the race. At 4/1, this is as good a place bet as you'll see on the Ellis card today.

show2Swift BladeML 5/2

Swift Blade (5/2) comes in third in the TrackWiz model at 74.53 with a 20% career win rate — solid credentials for a show ticket or trifecta play. Brad H. Cox conditions this one with Jaime A. Torres up, and the Cox barn at Ellis Park is not to be taken lightly. The 5/2 morning line makes this a short show price, but with Cox sending and Torres guiding, the board probability is high enough to justify inclusion.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A massive 14-horse maiden special weight field on the dirt where our model finds a clear top choice — but a 15/1 overlay in the place spot gives savvy bettors a reason to go deeper in their tickets.

win5By La RinaML 3/1

By La Rina (3/1) leads this sprawling field with the top TrackWiz rating at 86.46 — comfortably clear of the next-best horse. The 55 average speed figure matches the best recorded times in this field, and trainer Michael A. Tomlinson gets Axel Concepcion on board, a rider who knows how to rate a young horse in maiden company. At 3/1, the morning line is fair, and in a 14-horse field where our model has this wide a gap at the top, By La Rina is the clear anchor of any exotic ticket.

place14SomnambulistML 15/1

Somnambulist (15/1) is the value play of the race and possibly the card — a TrackWiz rating of 69.58 that ranks second in this field, but a morning line of 15/1 that suggests the public hasn't caught up yet. Trainer Kelsey Danner has Adam Beschizza in the irons, and for a maiden field this wide, a horse with a legitimate second-best rating going off at 15/1 is the kind of overlay that makes exotic bettors' hearts beat faster. This is a strong play in exactas and trifectas.

show3Winning MattersML 6/1

Winning Matters (6/1) ranks third in the TrackWiz model at 62.71 and brings a 55 average speed figure — consistent with the better horses in this field. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. rides for Dallas Stewart, and Stewart is a trainer who routinely produces competitive maidens. The 6/1 morning line is fair, and with a legitimate top-three rating in a wide-open field, Winning Matters earns a show bet and a trifecta slot without hesitation.

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Today's card at Ellis Park has real meat to it — Relevate looks like the standout play of the free races, and the turf allowance events later in the card are where sharp money tends to flow on days like this. Fast Joker and Battlefield Hero round out a strong free trio to get you started. For pace projections, exotic strategies, and analysis on all nine races, the full card breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there — and as always, bet what you can afford to lose.

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