Daily Picks

Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 19, 2026

Sunday, July 19, 20269 racesEllis Park

It's a warm Sunday afternoon at Ellis Park — 85°F under partly cloudy skies, and the Henderson oval is set up for a full nine-race card that spans dirt, turf, and every condition from maiden claiming to stakes company. The mix of surfaces makes today's card genuinely interesting from a handicapping standpoint, with three turf routes on the back half of the card that could see some pace fireworks.

The Race 8 Stakes sprint at six furlongs is the marquee event, and Evanescence tops our TrackWiz ratings there at an 86.35 — the highest mark among premium picks today. But don't sleep on the early races: the first three are free to all TrackWiz users, and we've got a pair of 5/2 morning-line plays we like in the openers.

With partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the mid-80s, the turf course should be playing firm and fair — exactly the kind of footing that rewards class and stamina over raw pace. Keep that in mind as we work through the full card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favors Cant Stop Munnings at 5/2, but our ratings tell a more nuanced story — three horses cluster within striking distance, setting up a competitive claiming opener at 6.5 furlongs on the dirt.

win7Cant Stop MunningsML 5/2

Cant Stop Munnings is the clear TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field at 87.81 — a significant gap over the next-best contender. Despite a career win rate of just 10%, that rating advantage suggests this horse has been running against tougher and is primed to perform at this level. Mario Gutierrez gets the call, and the 5/2 morning line reflects public respect without making this a sucker's price. In a race where pace scenarios are unclear, a horse this far ahead on our model is worth anchoring your tickets around.

place8Another MonarchML 10/1

Another Monarch (8) draws plenty of interest as a value underneath at 10/1 on the morning line. A TrackWiz rating of 68.09 makes this horse one of the top-three rated runners in the field, and Robert Hess Jr. has a knack for placing horses in spots they can compete. At double-digit odds, throwing Another Monarch into exactas and trifectas represents strong overlay potential.

show5ImpavidoML 6/1

Impavido brings the best career win percentage in the field at 20%, and the highest average speed figure at 55 — a tick above most rivals. Trainer Destin Heath has this horse entered at a reasonable price point for the claiming ranks, and the 6/1 morning line could drift, creating show-bet value. As a trifecta anchor or show play, Impavido deserves a slot.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer where nobody has broken their maiden yet, but not everyone is starting from the same talent base — TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders clearly, with Joe Joe Dude sitting well above the pack.

win5Joe Joe DudeML 5/2

Joe Joe Dude (5) is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 76.79 — nearly 21 points clear of the next-best horse. Trainer Joe Sharp runs a sharp operation and knows how to spot a horse into the right maiden claiming spot. The 5/2 morning line is fair but not generous, meaning the public is on to this one. Axel Concepcion rides, and with the top rating and a serviceable avg speed of 53, this looks like the most likely winner.

place9Jack's BackML 7/2

Jack's Back (9) is an interesting runner from the Steven Asmussen barn, carrying a rating of 55.83 and posted at 7/2 — reasonable odds for a barn that wins at a high clip. Keith J. Asmussen gets the mount, keeping this one in-house, which often signals connections feel the horse is ready. As a place play in a maiden field, the Asmussen pedigree and solid rating make Jack's Back a logical underneath piece.

show4Mr. FeteML 4/1

Mr. Fete (4) rates at 55.00 flat with an avg speed of 54, and the 4/1 morning line reflects genuine public interest. Trainer John Ennis has this one prepped, and Mr. Fete carries enough raw ability to hit the board in a maiden claimer that lacks a dominant deeper class. A solid show-ticket inclusion for multi-leg exotic players.

Race 3

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A full, sprawling maiden optional claiming field on the turf — 14 runners, all winless, with ratings tightly bunched and a handful of first-time-on-grass wildcards making pace projection nearly impossible.

win9Kihei KianaML 3/1

Kihei Kiana (9) checks in as our top-rated runner at 56.67 with an avg speed of 55 — both figures lead the field. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. climbs aboard, an upgrade in riding quality that shouldn't be overlooked. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun has solid form on the grass circuit, and the 3/1 morning line reflects the combination of connections and ability. In a race this competitive, leaning on the highest rating and a proven jockey-trainer combo is a sound approach.

place4Donie MaronieML 9/2

Donie Maronie (4) from the Mark Casse barn draws a 9/2 morning line and a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 — second-best in the field. Casse is a turf specialist whose horses often show up freshly and professionally prepared on the grass. Cristian Torres handles the riding duties, and the nearly double-digit odds could represent solid overlay value for exacta players.

show10Callie's DanceML 5/1

Callie's Dance (10) is a Joe Sharp-trained runner posting an avg speed of 55 — tied for best in the field with Kihei Kiana — and rates at 53.33 with Axel Concepcion up. Sharp has a strong track record placing horses on turf, and a 5/1 price makes this a genuine show ticket in a competitive maiden field where any of the top-four rated horses could land on the board.

Our three free previews kick off the card and cover a nice cross-section of what Ellis offers. Cant Stop Munnings (Race 1, 5/2 ML) leads our dirt claimers at a robust 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any free pick on the card — in a 6½-furlong test that should suit a presser-type on a fair, consistent dirt surface. Right behind in Race 2, Joe Joe Dude draws our eye in the maiden claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs, where the 5/2 morning line looks fair given the 76.79 rating in what figures to be a relatively thin field.

Race 3 flips to the turf for a Maiden Optional Claiming at 5½ furlongs, and Kihei Kiana is our top selection at 3/1. The rating of 56.67 signals some uncertainty — maiden turf sprints can be volatile — but the price is right and the pace scenario sets up favorably. All three free races share a common thread: morning-line odds that suggest the market is at least partially aligned with our analysis, giving you a solid starting foundation before the premium races take over.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Caroom's Croupier dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this claiming sprint but faces a price that punishes favorites — the real intrigue is whether the high-win-percentage closers can track down a potential front-runner.

win1Caroom's CroupierML 5/1

Caroom's Croupier (1) is the clear TrackWiz top choice with a rating of 84.17 — a substantial 17-point edge over the next-best horse. That kind of separation in our model is unusual and meaningful in a claiming field at this level. Trainer Chasey Deville Pomier sends out Micah Meeks, and though a 7% career win rate might give pause, the rating advantage suggests this horse is significantly better on paper than the field. The 5/1 morning line offers a hint of value for what the model considers a dominant edge.

place2ArtellaML 7/2

Artella (2) is the most interesting place play in the race, bringing a 33% career win rate — by far the best in the field and a number that commands respect. Trainer Shannon McGovern has clearly found a horse that runs consistently, and Rodney Prescott takes the mount at a fair 7/2 morning line. A horse winning a third of its career starts is a reliable exacta wheel piece.

show4Silent StrikeML 3/1

Silent Strike (4) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 65.15 and draws Gabriel Saez — one of the stronger jockey-trainer combinations when Saez is paired with a top-rated horse. The 3/1 morning line makes this no overlay, but as a show hedge and trifecta inclusion, Silent Strike's rating and competitive closing style round out the exotics nicely.

Race 5

6:44 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The favorite in this allowance turf mile-and-an-eighth carries star power but our ratings flip the script — Classic Glide at 12/1 is the TrackWiz top-rated runner, setting up a potential upset over a short-priced chalk.

win6Classic GlideML 12/1

Classic Glide (6) is our top-rated horse in this allowance turf field at 73.03 — a full four points ahead of Totally Justified and 14 points ahead of the morning-line favorite Sneakily. A 22% career win rate demonstrates this horse knows how to win, and Francisco Arrieta is a capable turf rider. The 12/1 morning line is where the value lies — if our rating holds up, this is exactly the kind of overlay that makes turf allowances worth playing.

place5Totally JustifiedML 5/2

Totally Justified (5) rates second in the field at 69.86 and posts a 6% career win rate, but what stands out is an avg speed figure of 55 — the best in the race. Trainer Anna Meah has this one entered on a surface that should suit, and Joseph Bealmear gets the mount. At 5/2 on the morning line, the place payoff may not be huge but the profile of a speed-figure leader with solid ratings makes this a reliable exacta partner.

show1SneakilyML 8/5

Sneakily (1) is the public's choice at 8/5 behind trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux — a formidable combination that wins at a high rate. A 50% career win rate is eye-popping and can't be ignored even if the TrackWiz rating of 59.00 slots this horse third on our list. As a show play and a mandatory trifecta inclusion, Sneakily's connections alone justify a spot on the ticket.

Race 6

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Three horses rate within a few points of each other at the top — Zambezi, Lunar Module, and Classic Car Wash — while the morning line underestimates all three, suggesting a race where the value is hiding in plain sight.

win9ZambeziML 6/1

Zambezi (9) earns the TrackWiz top rating at 81.55 despite being posted at 6/1 on the morning line — a classic overlay situation where our model sees more than the oddsmakers. An avg speed of 54 is competitive, and Yedsit Hazlewood picks up the mount for trainer Michael Maker, who is one of the best conditioners at placing horses in the right spots. A 13% career win rate won't blow you away, but the rating edge and value price make Zambezi the clear top play in Race 6.

place5Lunar ModuleML 8/1

Lunar Module (5) posts a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second-best in the field — with the highest avg speed figure in the race at 56. Ben Curtis rides for Joe Sharp, a jockey-trainer combination that consistently delivers results at this level. The 8/1 morning line makes Lunar Module one of the juiciest place plays on the card today, and the speed advantage in a one-mile dirt race is a tangible edge.

show4Classic Car WashML 5/1

Classic Car Wash (4) is the third pillar in what TrackWiz sees as a three-horse top tier, rating 78.40 with a 22% career win rate. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount — an elite pick-up — and trainer Chris Hartman has this horse entered confidently. The 5/1 morning line is fair, and in a race where the top three horses are tightly bunched, Classic Car Wash rounds out any trifecta structure with a legitimate shot to collect.

Race 7

7:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A deep MSW turf field where every horse is still looking for their first win, but trainer pedigree and barn connections could separate the legitimate contenders from the pretenders in a competitive one-mile grass event.

win2Code ZeroML 3/1

Code Zero (2) is our TrackWiz top choice at 56.67, trained by Brad Cox — one of the premier conditioners in American racing and a trainer with an exceptional record introducing horses on the turf. Luan Machado gets the call, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the public respects this runner too. In maiden special weight races on grass, where debut runners and lightly raced horses abound, Cox's professionalism in placing well-prepared horses gives Code Zero a meaningful edge.

place6Best ScreenplayML 7/2

Best Screenplay (6) rates at 55.83 — just a tick behind Code Zero — and comes from the Brendan Walsh barn, another trainer with a sharp eye for turf placement. Ben Curtis is an underrated pick-up here, and the 7/2 morning line puts this horse just behind the favorite at a price that works well for exacta plays. Walsh-trained maiden turf horses often run big on first or second attempts.

show8WarforkML 9/2

Warfork (8) from the Mark Casse stable rates third in the field at 54.17 and is posted at 9/2. Casse is a multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer whose grass horses routinely punch above their odds, and Cristian Torres handles the mount. In a wide-open maiden field, Warfork's trainer advantage and solid rating make this a legitimate trifecta piece at a fair price.

Race 8

8:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Stakes day at Ellis Park delivers a loaded six-furlong dirt sprint with multiple legitimate contenders — Evanescence leads our ratings by a wide margin, but Cash Call and Jersey Pearl both have the credentials to make this a genuine battle.

win3EvanescenceML 7/2

Evanescence (3) is the runaway TrackWiz top choice in the stakes field at 86.35 — a full 12-point cushion over the next-best horse. A 40% career win rate is outstanding at any level, and an avg speed of 56 ties for best in the field. Luan Machado gets the mount for trainer Eddie Kenneally, and the 7/2 morning line is fair but not generous — this is a horse that belongs near the top of every ticket in the race.

place7Jersey PearlML 10/1

Jersey Pearl (7) rates 74.41 with a 35% career win rate and an avg speed of 56 — all strong numbers in a stakes field. Francisco Arrieta rides for Darrin Miller, and at 10/1 on the morning line, this horse is an outstanding overlay for place and exacta purposes. Horses with a 35% win rate routinely find the board, and the TrackWiz rating strongly supports Jersey Pearl hitting at double-digit odds.

show6Cash CallML 3/1

Cash Call (6) is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 under trainer Bob Baffert, carrying a 50% career win rate that speaks for itself. Florent Geroux handles riding duties, and while our model slots this horse third, a Baffert-trained sprinter with a coin-flip win record in a stakes race is never to be dismissed lightly. As a show play and mandatory trifecta leg, Cash Call absolutely belongs on every ticket.

Race 9

8:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A 12-horse maiden special weight on the turf at a mile and an eighth — plenty of unknowns in a field of winless horses, but Banksy's stands apart on ratings while Diamond Eyed Jack and Terre Haute offer compelling longshot angles underneath.

win7Banksy'sML 4/1

Banksy's (7) is the clear TrackWiz top choice in Race 9 with a rating of 83.35 — well clear of the field in a race where the second-rated horse checks in at 73.96. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount for trainer David Fawkes, and an avg speed of 54 is competitive for a turf marathon. The 4/1 morning line actually represents fair value given the rating gap, and in a maiden field this large, having the highest-rated horse at a reasonable price is exactly the opportunity TrackWiz looks for.

place12Diamond Eyed JackML 12/1

Diamond Eyed Jack (12) is a fascinating play — rated second in the field at 73.96 but posted at 12/1 on the morning line, creating a significant overlay for place bettors. Ben Curtis takes the mount for Brendan Walsh, and Walsh-trained turf horses are worth their weight at any odds. The 12/1 price on a horse our model rates this highly is the kind of gap that can make an exotic ticket pay handsomely.

show9Terre HauteML 12/1

Terre Haute (9) rates 70.54 — third-best in the field — and is also priced at 12/1, meaning three of our top-four rated horses come in at 12/1 or lower morning lines except for Banksy's. Trainer John Ennis has this one entered confidently, and Alex Achard's familiarity with the Ennis stable is a plus. At 12/1 with a top-three rating and a proven trainer-jockey combo, Terre Haute is a live trifecta piece and a legitimate show-ticket inclusion.

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Bottom line: Ellis Park serves up a well-rounded nine-race card today with legitimate plays on both surfaces. Cant Stop Munnings is our top-rated free pick, Evanescence is the marquee premium selection in the Stakes sprint, and Classic Glide at 12/1 in Race 5 is the longshot angle worth a hard look. Dig into the free previews now, and grab a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing to unlock the full card — good luck out there today.

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