Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 19, 2026

Donie Maronie (4) from the Mark Casse barn draws a 9/2 morning line and a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 — second-best in the field. Casse is a turf specialist whose horses often show up freshly and professionally prepared on the grass. Cristian Torres handles the riding duties, and the nearly double-digit odds could represent solid overlay value for exacta players.

Callie's Dance (10) is a Joe Sharp-trained runner posting an avg speed of 55 — tied for best in the field with Kihei Kiana — and rates at 53.33 with Axel Concepcion up. Sharp has a strong track record placing horses on turf, and a 5/1 price makes this a genuine show ticket in a competitive maiden field where any of the top-four rated horses could land on the board.

Artella (2) is the most interesting place play in the race, bringing a 33% career win rate — by far the best in the field and a number that commands respect. Trainer Shannon McGovern has clearly found a horse that runs consistently, and Rodney Prescott takes the mount at a fair 7/2 morning line. A horse winning a third of its career starts is a reliable exacta wheel piece.

Silent Strike (4) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 65.15 and draws Gabriel Saez — one of the stronger jockey-trainer combinations when Saez is paired with a top-rated horse. The 3/1 morning line makes this no overlay, but as a show hedge and trifecta inclusion, Silent Strike's rating and competitive closing style round out the exotics nicely.

Totally Justified (5) rates second in the field at 69.86 and posts a 6% career win rate, but what stands out is an avg speed figure of 55 — the best in the race. Trainer Anna Meah has this one entered on a surface that should suit, and Joseph Bealmear gets the mount. At 5/2 on the morning line, the place payoff may not be huge but the profile of a speed-figure leader with solid ratings makes this a reliable exacta partner.

Sneakily (1) is the public's choice at 8/5 behind trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux — a formidable combination that wins at a high rate. A 50% career win rate is eye-popping and can't be ignored even if the TrackWiz rating of 59.00 slots this horse third on our list. As a show play and a mandatory trifecta inclusion, Sneakily's connections alone justify a spot on the ticket.

Lunar Module (5) posts a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second-best in the field — with the highest avg speed figure in the race at 56. Ben Curtis rides for Joe Sharp, a jockey-trainer combination that consistently delivers results at this level. The 8/1 morning line makes Lunar Module one of the juiciest place plays on the card today, and the speed advantage in a one-mile dirt race is a tangible edge.

Classic Car Wash (4) is the third pillar in what TrackWiz sees as a three-horse top tier, rating 78.40 with a 22% career win rate. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount — an elite pick-up — and trainer Chris Hartman has this horse entered confidently. The 5/1 morning line is fair, and in a race where the top three horses are tightly bunched, Classic Car Wash rounds out any trifecta structure with a legitimate shot to collect.

Best Screenplay (6) rates at 55.83 — just a tick behind Code Zero — and comes from the Brendan Walsh barn, another trainer with a sharp eye for turf placement. Ben Curtis is an underrated pick-up here, and the 7/2 morning line puts this horse just behind the favorite at a price that works well for exacta plays. Walsh-trained maiden turf horses often run big on first or second attempts.

Warfork (8) from the Mark Casse stable rates third in the field at 54.17 and is posted at 9/2. Casse is a multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer whose grass horses routinely punch above their odds, and Cristian Torres handles the mount. In a wide-open maiden field, Warfork's trainer advantage and solid rating make this a legitimate trifecta piece at a fair price.

Jersey Pearl (7) rates 74.41 with a 35% career win rate and an avg speed of 56 — all strong numbers in a stakes field. Francisco Arrieta rides for Darrin Miller, and at 10/1 on the morning line, this horse is an outstanding overlay for place and exacta purposes. Horses with a 35% win rate routinely find the board, and the TrackWiz rating strongly supports Jersey Pearl hitting at double-digit odds.

Cash Call (6) is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 under trainer Bob Baffert, carrying a 50% career win rate that speaks for itself. Florent Geroux handles riding duties, and while our model slots this horse third, a Baffert-trained sprinter with a coin-flip win record in a stakes race is never to be dismissed lightly. As a show play and mandatory trifecta leg, Cash Call absolutely belongs on every ticket.

Diamond Eyed Jack (12) is a fascinating play — rated second in the field at 73.96 but posted at 12/1 on the morning line, creating a significant overlay for place bettors. Ben Curtis takes the mount for Brendan Walsh, and Walsh-trained turf horses are worth their weight at any odds. The 12/1 price on a horse our model rates this highly is the kind of gap that can make an exotic ticket pay handsomely.

Terre Haute (9) rates 70.54 — third-best in the field — and is also priced at 12/1, meaning three of our top-four rated horses come in at 12/1 or lower morning lines except for Banksy's. Trainer John Ennis has this one entered confidently, and Alex Achard's familiarity with the Ennis stable is a plus. At 12/1 with a top-three rating and a proven trainer-jockey combo, Terre Haute is a live trifecta piece and a legitimate show-ticket inclusion.