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Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 18, 2026

July 18, 20269 racesAll Ellis Park picks

This card ran on July 18, 2026.

Best bets at Ellis Park, July 18, 2026

Race 13She's On a RollML 9/212:50 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful Saturday at Ellis Park — clear skies, 88 degrees, and nine races on tap. Conditions like these are about as close to ideal as you'll get at a mid-July Kentucky oval, and that firm turf should play right into the hands of horses that like to run on top of the ground rather than through it.

Today's card is a nice blend of maiden action in the early races and some serious class in the back half. We've got two allowance spots, a stakes race in Race 8, and three turf contests spread across the afternoon — plenty of angles for both casual players and the multi-race ticket builders. Nine races, a lot of opinions, and we'll break it all down for you.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf opener where the morning line favorites are scattered from 2/1 to 9/2, and our TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story than the oddsmakers — the top-rated horse isn't even the chalk.

win3She's On a RollML 9/2

She's On a Roll (#3) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.9 — a significant gap over the second-best horse — and backs it up with the top average speed figure among horses who have recorded one. Trainer Sarah E. Shaffer sends her out with Cristian A. Torres in the irons, a pairing worth watching on the Ellis turf. At 9/2 on the morning line, she offers genuine value for a horse whose numbers stand this far above the competition in a maiden field.

place5CearnachML 5/1

Cearnach (#5) comes in with a strong 74.47 TrackWiz rating, second only to our top pick, and Ian R. Wilkes is a trainer who knows how to place a horse. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount — one of the sharpest riders in the region — and the 5/1 morning line makes this a comfortable place play in what looks like a two-horse fight at the top.

show7DefineML 2/1

Define (#7) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 — trained by Brendan P. Walsh, who consistently fields well-prepped first-starters — but our rating of 58.33 suggests the public may be over-betting the Walsh/Sheehy name. Still, you can't ignore that barn on a turf debut, and slotting Define into the show hole of your exacta and trifecta tickets gives you coverage on the most likely chalk.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where the Asmussen barn sends out the morning line favorite and a recognizable jockey name, but several single-digit-odds runners are bunched tightly in our ratings — making this a race where the exacta could go several ways.

win10Valentine EveML 2/1

Valentine Eve (#10) is the morning line choice at 2/1, trained by Steven M. Asmussen and piloted by Keith J. Asmussen — a family combination the Asmussen stable uses when they're confident. She tops the field with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating among horses we have substantial data on, and the Asmussen operation's maiden win percentage at mid-level claiming events is a well-documented strength. No average speed figure on record suggests she's lightly raced, which in a maiden field can cut both ways, but the barn's confidence speaks volumes.

place7Tiz CandyML 4/1

Tiz Candy (#7) comes in at 4/1 with a 55.0 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — under Francisco Arrieta for trainer Eddie Kenneally, who places horses well at this level. She's one of those horses who fits quietly into the place spot: solid enough to threaten the top two but perhaps lacking the ceiling of the favorite. A great option for the exacta key underneath.

show1Mo Town Foxy BrownML 9/2

Mo Town Foxy Brown (#1) draws the rail with the best average speed figure among horses who've posted one (55) and a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 that puts her third in the field. Trainer Genaro Garcia and jockey Amir Mendoza are a workmanlike combo who can take advantage of a clean trip from the inside post. She's a natural show bet and show-key in the trifecta at 9/2.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Our free coverage kicks off with three races that offer real handicapping meat. She's On a Roll (9/2 morning line) draws our attention first in Race 1 — a turf maiden that should favor pace-pressers on what figures to be a firm course today. Over in Race 2, Valentine Eve opens as the 2/1 favorite on the dirt sprint, and our TrackWiz rating of 58.33 reflects a competitive field where the chalk will need to earn it. Race 3 brings D Bigalow into focus at 7/2 — a solid TrackWiz rating of 79.69 makes him the most compelling of our free-card selections, and the six-furlong dirt distance suits his profile nicely.

One thing to watch across all three early races: the clear, hot conditions tend to push pace scenarios a tick faster at Ellis Park, which means closers will want company up front. Keep an eye on how those early fractions develop — it'll tell you a lot about how the second half of the card will play.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sixteen horses squeeze into this maiden claiming sprint, and the chaos of a full field on the dirt at six furlongs should set up a genuine pace battle — positioning and trip luck will matter just as much as raw ability.

win3D BigalowML 7/2

D Bigalow (#3) is the standout in this field by our ratings — a 79.69 TrackWiz score that's a full 20 points clear of the next horse — and matches it with the top average speed figure in the field (55) among horses who've shown one. Cristian A. Torres is a live rider who handles big fields well, and trainer David Fawkes sends him to the 7/2 morning line price, which is reasonable given the rating edge. In a chaotic 16-horse field, having the class advantage matters.

place16Mandy's Man CanML 5/1

Mandy's Man Can (#16) sits at 5/1 on the morning line with a 59.73 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and trainer Paulo H. Lobo has Evin A. Roman aboard. Outside post in a big field is a concern, but the pace scenario in a 16-horse dirt sprint could set up perfectly for a horse that stalks and pounces. The price is right for a place play.

show6McKinsenseML 5/2

McKinsense (#6) is the second choice at 5/2 with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure, and veteran Rafael Bejarano rarely takes bad mounts in maiden claimers. She's the kind of honest, consistent horse who finds her way into the trifecta even when she doesn't win outright — solid show inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 4

2:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The claiming mile sets up as a wide-open puzzle — three horses are separated by fewer than four points at the top of our TrackWiz ratings, and the morning line favorite is way off our preferred order, creating a real value opportunity.

win4GrovelandML 10/1

Groveland (#4) opens at 10/1 on the morning line despite carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 76.88 — that's a significant disconnect that our analysis flagged immediately. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount for Eddie Kenneally, a trainer who excels placing horses in exactly this type of spot. With a 20% career win rate, Groveland shows the kind of consistency you want in claiming company, and the double-digit morning line price makes this our best value bet of the race.

place1Time for TruthML 6/1

Time for Truth (#1) is razor-close at 75.99 in our ratings with a 22% career win percentage — the best strike rate in the field. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. climbs aboard, which is a major positive, and trainer Lon Wiggins has him primed at a mile on the dirt. The 6/1 morning line feels a touch light given the connections, but he's a legitimate place threat who can sit close to the pace.

show7I Don't Get ItML 8/1

I Don't Get It (#7) has the third-highest rating at 73.75 and a 23% career win percentage that suggests he hits the board regularly. Edgar Morales is a competent pilot who won't give up ground needlessly. At 8/1 on the morning line, he's an excellent trifecta inclusion — the kind of horse that sneaks into the money when the top two horses set each other up.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

2:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile for fillies and mares where several first-timers and lightly-raced types make this a genuine guessing game, but our ratings still carve out a clear pecking order among the speed figure unknowns.

win7Lucky BernadineML 3/1

Lucky Bernadine (#7) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 for trainer Brad H. Cox — and Cox on the turf is a combination that consistently overperforms at maiden level. Luan Machado picks up the mount at 3/1 on the morning line, which is a fair price for a Cox-trained horse making her turf debut in maiden special weight. No prior speed figure suggests limited racing history, but the barn rarely sends one out underprepared.

place5Peace MissionML 7/2

Peace Mission (#5) goes for Mark E. Casse, another trainer who thrives in maiden turf events, with Axel Concepcion in the saddle at 7/2. Her 55.83 TrackWiz rating puts her just behind our top pick, and Casse's turf maiden percentage is a genuine positive angle. This is a horse you want in your exacta underneath Lucky Bernadine.

show8Bit TipsyML 9/2

Bit Tipsy (#8) brings some actual race data to this field — an average speed figure of 56, tied for the top mark among horses who've recorded one. Eduardo Caramori trains, Victor R. Carrasco rides, and the 9/2 morning line makes her a comfortable show play or trifecta piece for those looking to build their tickets around the top two picks.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

3:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A thirteen-horse allowance mile on the dirt that looks like a clash between an extremely high-rated horse and a well-regarded favorite — but there's a big-barn runner in the mix who could complicate things for the public.

win1High CeilingML 5/1

High Ceiling (#1) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field by a wide margin at 84.17, and the 60% career win percentage is extraordinary — this horse simply wins when it runs. Joe Sharp saddles High Ceiling with Axel Concepcion up, and while 5/1 might seem reasonable for a horse at the top of the class, that 60% strike rate says bet it down. This is our most confident top pick of the afternoon.

place5Penalty BoxML 4/1

Penalty Box (#5) is the morning line second choice at 4/1 with a 78.9 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win percentage in what appears to be a deeper résumé. Trainer Michael W. McCarthy and jockey Danny Sheehy form a solid tandem, and Penalty Box's rating is close enough to High Ceiling that a pace scenario or traffic issue could easily flip the result. A strong place play.

show10BlacksmithML 3/1

Blacksmith (#10) is the 3/1 morning line favorite despite ranking third in our ratings at 69.5 — Florent Geroux and Bob Baffert in combination will always attract public money, and rightfully so. The 14% career win percentage is the lowest among the top three by our ratings, but in a field this deep, Blacksmith's connections give him an edge in finishing. Good show inclusion at what should be short odds.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 7

3:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An allowance optional claiming sprint on the turf that features one horse who towers above the field in both our ratings and career win percentage — the question is whether the 2/1 favorite is worth chalking up or if a value play lurks underneath.

win3Cut to the ChaseML 2/1

Cut to the Chase (#3) is dominant here — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that clears the field by nearly 20 points, combined with a 40% career win percentage that stands among the elite in this group. Trainer Wesley A. Ward is a specialist on turf sprints and sends out Yedsit Hazlewood, who knows this course. The top average speed figure in the field (56) confirms she's done it on paper and in real time. At 2/1, she's the play.

place2Don't Say ItML 6/1

Don't Say It (#2) brings a 35% career win percentage — second highest in the race — and a 69.15 TrackWiz rating that puts her comfortably ahead of the rest of the field outside of our top pick. Trainer Chris A. Hartman and jockey Danny Sheehy are a reliable pairing, and at 6/1 on the morning line, Don't Say It represents genuine value in the exacta underneath the chalk.

show4I'm Mo JokeML 5/1

I'm Mo Joke (#4) earns the third spot with a 67.52 TrackWiz rating and has Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. in the saddle for Joe Sharp — two names that consistently put horses in the money on Ellis turf. The 5/1 morning line is fair for a horse with a 57 average speed figure, the best in the race, which tells you she can absolutely run if she gets a clean trip from the four hole.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

4:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The stakes race on the card features a wide spread of talent and a morning line favorite who doesn't match up to our top-rated horse — the 5/1 shot may be the play of the night.

win3DreaminblueML 5/1

Dreaminblue (#3) tops the TrackWiz stakes field at 84.17 — tied for the highest rating on the entire card today — and backs it up with a 56 average speed figure and a 21% career win rate that's entirely respectable in stakes company. Rafael Bejarano has been sharp recently and this is exactly the kind of stakes spot trainer Randy L. Morse builds toward. At 5/1, this is a clear overlay given the number.

place2Here Mi SongML 4/1

Here Mi Song (#2) is the second-rated horse in the field at 73.0 with a 22% career win percentage and a 56 average speed figure that matches Dreaminblue stride for stride on paper. Edgar Morales takes the mount for William Stinson Jr., and at 4/1 on the morning line, she's a legitimate challenger who should be sitting close to the pace in a 6.5-furlong dirt stakes. Great exacta play underneath our top pick.

show7Zero SugarML 8/1

Zero Sugar (#7) might be the sneaky play in the trifecta — a 57.84 TrackWiz rating with the best average speed figure in the field (57) and a 33% career win percentage that's actually higher than most of the horses ahead of her in the program. Cristian A. Torres handles the mount for Cipriano Contreras, and 8/1 is a very fair price for a horse whose raw speed numbers suggest she can be closer than the morning line implies.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 9

4:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Thirteen maiden runners on the turf sprint to close the Ellis card — the field is loaded with first-timers and unknowns, but one horse's TrackWiz rating stands well clear of the pack and represents a genuine upset play at a workable price.

win3Toast the StarML 5/1

Toast the Star (#3) opens at 5/1 and carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this thirteen-horse maiden turf sprint by a significant margin — 77.57 against a field where the next-best is 58.33. Trainer John A. Hancock sends Edgar Morales to the post, and the 56 average speed figure ranks among the best recorded in the field. In a race full of unknowns, having a clear rating edge matters, and 5/1 is a fair price for a horse we believe is the class of the field.

place6Spin a TuneML 2/1

Spin a Tune (#6) is the 2/1 morning line favorite and posts a 58.33 TrackWiz rating with the top average speed figure in the race at 58. Trainer Eoin G. Harty has a strong track record developing turf horses, and Jaime A. Torres gives her a reliable pilot from the six post. She's the horse to beat if Toast the Star gets into trouble, and she's the natural place key in your tickets.

show5Zero AbsoluteML 3/1

Zero Absolute (#5) sits at 3/1 on the morning line with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — for trainer Philip A. Bauer with Axel Concepcion in the irons. The 52 average speed figure is a step below the top two, but Concepcion is excellent at rating horses in turf sprints and finding a run in the stretch. A comfortable show play and trifecta piece to round out tickets around the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

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Ellis Park on a clear, hot Saturday with nine well-structured races — this is a card worth your time. She's On a Roll, Valentine Eve, and D Bigalow are your free best bets to get started. For the full picture, including our take on Cut to the Chase, Dreaminblue, and every exotic wager worth playing today, full-card analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck at the windows.

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