Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 18, 2026
It's a beautiful Saturday at Ellis Park — clear skies, 88 degrees, and nine races on tap. Conditions like these are about as close to ideal as you'll get at a mid-July Kentucky oval, and that firm turf should play right into the hands of horses that like to run on top of the ground rather than through it.
Today's card is a nice blend of maiden action in the early races and some serious class in the back half. We've got two allowance spots, a stakes race in Race 8, and three turf contests spread across the afternoon — plenty of angles for both casual players and the multi-race ticket builders. Nine races, a lot of opinions, and we'll break it all down for you.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
A wide-open maiden turf opener where the morning line favorites are scattered from 2/1 to 9/2, and our TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story than the oddsmakers — the top-rated horse isn't even the chalk.
She's On a Roll (#3) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.9 — a significant gap over the second-best horse — and backs it up with the top average speed figure among horses who have recorded one. Trainer Sarah E. Shaffer sends her out with Cristian A. Torres in the irons, a pairing worth watching on the Ellis turf. At 9/2 on the morning line, she offers genuine value for a horse whose numbers stand this far above the competition in a maiden field.
Cearnach (#5) comes in with a strong 74.47 TrackWiz rating, second only to our top pick, and Ian R. Wilkes is a trainer who knows how to place a horse. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount — one of the sharpest riders in the region — and the 5/1 morning line makes this a comfortable place play in what looks like a two-horse fight at the top.
Define (#7) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 — trained by Brendan P. Walsh, who consistently fields well-prepped first-starters — but our rating of 58.33 suggests the public may be over-betting the Walsh/Sheehy name. Still, you can't ignore that barn on a turf debut, and slotting Define into the show hole of your exacta and trifecta tickets gives you coverage on the most likely chalk.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where the Asmussen barn sends out the morning line favorite and a recognizable jockey name, but several single-digit-odds runners are bunched tightly in our ratings — making this a race where the exacta could go several ways.
Valentine Eve (#10) is the morning line choice at 2/1, trained by Steven M. Asmussen and piloted by Keith J. Asmussen — a family combination the Asmussen stable uses when they're confident. She tops the field with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating among horses we have substantial data on, and the Asmussen operation's maiden win percentage at mid-level claiming events is a well-documented strength. No average speed figure on record suggests she's lightly raced, which in a maiden field can cut both ways, but the barn's confidence speaks volumes.
Tiz Candy (#7) comes in at 4/1 with a 55.0 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — under Francisco Arrieta for trainer Eddie Kenneally, who places horses well at this level. She's one of those horses who fits quietly into the place spot: solid enough to threaten the top two but perhaps lacking the ceiling of the favorite. A great option for the exacta key underneath.
Mo Town Foxy Brown (#1) draws the rail with the best average speed figure among horses who've posted one (55) and a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 that puts her third in the field. Trainer Genaro Garcia and jockey Amir Mendoza are a workmanlike combo who can take advantage of a clean trip from the inside post. She's a natural show bet and show-key in the trifecta at 9/2.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Sixteen horses squeeze into this maiden claiming sprint, and the chaos of a full field on the dirt at six furlongs should set up a genuine pace battle — positioning and trip luck will matter just as much as raw ability.
D Bigalow (#3) is the standout in this field by our ratings — a 79.69 TrackWiz score that's a full 20 points clear of the next horse — and matches it with the top average speed figure in the field (55) among horses who've shown one. Cristian A. Torres is a live rider who handles big fields well, and trainer David Fawkes sends him to the 7/2 morning line price, which is reasonable given the rating edge. In a chaotic 16-horse field, having the class advantage matters.
Mandy's Man Can (#16) sits at 5/1 on the morning line with a 59.73 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and trainer Paulo H. Lobo has Evin A. Roman aboard. Outside post in a big field is a concern, but the pace scenario in a 16-horse dirt sprint could set up perfectly for a horse that stalks and pounces. The price is right for a place play.
McKinsense (#6) is the second choice at 5/2 with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure, and veteran Rafael Bejarano rarely takes bad mounts in maiden claimers. She's the kind of honest, consistent horse who finds her way into the trifecta even when she doesn't win outright — solid show inclusion.
Our free coverage kicks off with three races that offer real handicapping meat. She's On a Roll (9/2 morning line) draws our attention first in Race 1 — a turf maiden that should favor pace-pressers on what figures to be a firm course today. Over in Race 2, Valentine Eve opens as the 2/1 favorite on the dirt sprint, and our TrackWiz rating of 58.33 reflects a competitive field where the chalk will need to earn it. Race 3 brings D Bigalow into focus at 7/2 — a solid TrackWiz rating of 79.69 makes him the most compelling of our free-card selections, and the six-furlong dirt distance suits his profile nicely.
One thing to watch across all three early races: the clear, hot conditions tend to push pace scenarios a tick faster at Ellis Park, which means closers will want company up front. Keep an eye on how those early fractions develop — it'll tell you a lot about how the second half of the card will play.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
Ellis Park on a clear, hot Saturday with nine well-structured races — this is a card worth your time. She's On a Roll, Valentine Eve, and D Bigalow are your free best bets to get started. For the full picture, including our take on Cut to the Chase, Dreaminblue, and every exotic wager worth playing today, full-card analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck at the windows.