Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026

Noroomformischief (No. 3) slots in second on our ratings at 64.22 with a 52 average speed figure — lower than some rivals but still competitive. What gives her a place edge is the rating gap above the rest of the field; in maiden races, clear class separation at the top usually means the top two rated horses run 1-2 in some order. Trainer John Ennis places her at a 9/2 line, which is reasonable for a horse who may be playing second fiddle but should be closing ground.

Muriel Sax (No. 8) earns a 58.07 rating — third-best in the field — and her 54 average speed figure ties with Heavenly Mary and is respectable for this level. Trainer Ismael Bahena is a competent hand at Ellis Park, and Joseph D. Ramos provides a capable pilot. She's 6/1 on the line, making her a smart inclusion in exacta and trifecta tickets as a third wheel behind the top two.

Prince of Broadway (No. 1) brings a 25% career win rate — tied for the highest in the field — and a solid 70.85 rating to back it up. Trainer Linda Rice sends him from the rail with Francisco Arrieta, and at 9/2 on the morning line, this is a horse who knows how to get his nose in front. If Cloud Number Nine is the upside play, Prince of Broadway is the steady foundation for your exacta.

Quinn's Promise (No. 5) is the morning-line favorite at 5/2, which tells you the public likes her, but our ratings have her third at 63.79 — suggesting the market may be slightly overvaluing her. With an 8% career win rate, she hasn't always delivered on promise, but Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is one of the best pilots in the region and trainer Kinnon LaRose puts her in a spot where she can hit the board. The show position feels right.

Radnor Lake (No. 6) checks in at a 55.83 rating — second in the field — and comes out of the Brad H. Cox barn, one of the premier training operations in the country. Luan Machado takes the mount at a fair 7/2 morning line, and Cox's first-time starters routinely arrive fit and ready to run. If Salahudin has the pedigree edge, Radnor Lake has the training edge, and this could easily flip.

Jokester (No. 3) sits at 54.17 on our ratings with trainer George Weaver sending him out at 9/2 on the morning line. Weaver is a skilled conditioner whose debut runners often show up well-prepared, and Declan Cannon provides an experienced set of hands. In a wide-open MSW where debut form is the game, Jokester's stable credentials make him a reasonable exotic play for the show spot and underneath in trifectas.

Initialize (No. 13) is the value play of the race — a 74.06 TrackWiz rating (second-best in the field) paired with a 41% career win rate that stands out like a beacon in this field. The 10/1 morning line is hard to reconcile with those numbers, making this a potential overlay of significance. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen keeps Erik Asmussen in the saddle, and a horse who wins 41% of career starts doesn't just wander into the trifecta — she's a legit contender at a price.

Big Boat (No. 12) rates third in the field at 62.25 with a 20% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure that holds up on this turf course. Trainer James P. DiVito has Rafael Bejarano up, and at 10/1 on the morning line, Big Boat offers solid value in the exotics. In a 14-horse field with pace likely to get honest, a horse with this kind of figure and win percentage often finds herself running on late.

Speedstorm (No. 8) is the most intriguing number in the race — a 60% career win rate is remarkable and suggests a horse who simply knows how to finish races. Trainer Ron Moquett puts Ben Curtis up at 5/1, and while the 62.27 TrackWiz rating is well below Wonder Mist, the win percentage alone demands respect. In a race where the favorite may get lonely on the front end, a horse who converts at that clip is dangerous for the place spot.

Highly Flammable (No. 4) posts a 59.6 rating at 6/1 on the morning line with trainer Sergio Donjuan and jockey Gerardo Corrales. What makes her interesting is a 55 average speed figure — the joint best among the challengers — suggesting she can run with this group on raw pace. She's the kind of consistent type who often shows up for the show in competitive allowance sprints, and at 6/1 she's worth including in your trifecta construction.

My Boy Tony (No. 6) earns a 74.7 rating — third in the field — and at 9/2 on the morning line represents genuine overlay value relative to his model score. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is a craftsman with routers on turf, and Francisco Arrieta gives him a quality pilot. The 4% career win rate is low, but in a race structured around a dominant favorite, a place showing is entirely realistic for a horse with this kind of rating.

Telescopic (No. 2) sits at 73.41 — just behind My Boy Tony — and trainer Victoria H. Oliver sends him out from post 2 with Axel Concepcion, who rides Ellis Park regularly and understands the turf course. The 5/2 morning line suggests the market also respects this one, and a 6% career win rate in turf routes at allowance company isn't alarming for a horse who may be peaking now. He's a sensible anchor in the show spot for trifecta and superfecta plays.

Dismiss (No. 14) is the tightest call on the card — an 82.99 rating just 2.63 points behind our win pick, meaning this is essentially a two-horse race at the top of the form. Trainer Pavel Matejka points her to this spot with a 57 average speed figure (the best in the race), and Mario Gutierrez gets the mount at 5/2 on the morning line. If anything goes wrong with the top pick, Dismiss is right there to steal it — and she may just win outright.

Grande Sorpreso (No. 8) rates third in this deep field at 66.26 — a full 16 points behind the top two but meaningfully clear of the rest — and comes out of the Ian R. Wilkes barn with Francisco Arrieta in the irons. Her 55 average speed figure is competitive, and at 7/2 on the morning line, she's well-positioned for the show spot in trifecta tickets. When the top two in a maiden turf sprint are this well-regarded, the third-best figure often runs on to hit the board.