Ellis Park Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026
It's a warm Friday afternoon at Ellis Park — 85 degrees under partly cloudy skies — and the track is serving up a full 9-race card that mixes maiden claimers, allowance company, and a pair of turf routes that could make or break your Pick 4 tickets.
The first half of the card runs exclusively on the main dirt track, where conditions look fast and favorable for speed. Then the action shifts to the turf for Races 6 and 8 — that 1¼-mile allowance in Race 8 is the headliner, and it's shaping up to be the best race on the card. Don't skip it.
Three races are fully free today, giving every reader a solid starting point before we get into the deeper premium analysis. Nine races. Plenty of angles. Let's get into it.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden claimer at 5 1/2 furlongs where the top three TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by just five points — this one could come down to pace positioning and who wants it most in the stretch.
Nanzig tops our ratings at 80.89 and carries the best average speed figure in the field at 54, a tick above the cluster of horses sitting at 53. Trainer Anna Navarrete sends her out at a competitive 4/1 morning line — not a short price, which means there's still some meat on the bone. Francisco Arrieta gets the call and will need to find a clean trip from post 7, but the raw numbers here are hard to argue with in a maiden field this evenly matched.
Command the Stars (No. 5) posts a solid 76.35 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and trainer S. Jade Cunningham has her pointing to the right spot here. She matches the average speed figure of the field pack at 53 but the rating edge suggests she profiles as a horse who does a lot of things well, making her a strong place contender at a 6/1 morning line with some upside.
Diagram checks in third on our ratings at 75.19 and shares that 53 average speed figure with several rivals, but trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a sharp conditioner who consistently gets his maiden claimers ready to fire first out. At 5/1 on the morning line, Diagram represents solid exotic value — the kind of horse you want underneath in trifecta and exacta plays when the win pool is concentrated elsewhere.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Swiftwind heads into this 6-furlong claimer as a clear class and form standout, but the pace scenario with multiple speed types in the field could set up nicely for a pace presser or closer to sweep in late.
Swiftwind is the most compelling horse on the card in this race — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating leads the field by more than eight points, and a 28% career win rate is significantly better than almost every rival he'll face today. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen puts Erik Asmussen in the irons, keeping it a family operation, and that stable rarely sends horses to post without confidence. The 6/1 morning line feels generous given the rating advantage and the win percentage — this is our strongest value play of the first few races.
Protomagic (No. 1) brings a 74.59 rating and a 15% career win clip — respectable for a claimer — and gets the Asmussen stable treatment again with Keith J. Asmussen aboard. What's interesting here is that Protomagic's 54 average speed figure keeps pace with the better horses in this field, suggesting she can hold her own on raw figures even if she's a step below Swiftwind on overall rating.
Talkin in Cursive stands out with a 22% career win rate — the second-highest among horses with recorded stats in this field — and a 55 average speed figure that ties the top mark in the race. Trainer Matt A. Shirer keeps her at a manageable 5/1 on the line, and if the pace scenario sets up with early speed getting caught, a closer profile like this one could be right there at the wire for the show spot and exotic plays.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Right and Tight owns a massive ratings edge in this maiden claiming sprint, but the 6/1 morning line suggests the market hasn't fully caught up — creating a potential overlay situation worth targeting.
Right and Tight is the standout in Race 3, posting an 82.71 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the field — her nearest rival, Noroomformischief, sits nearly 19 points back at 64.22. More importantly, her 56 average speed figure is the highest in the race, which in maiden company is a genuine differentiator. Trainer Frank Lucarelli sends her out from post 2 with Evin A. Roman up, and at 6/1 on the morning line, the TrackWiz model sees this as a significant overlay.
Noroomformischief (No. 3) slots in second on our ratings at 64.22 with a 52 average speed figure — lower than some rivals but still competitive. What gives her a place edge is the rating gap above the rest of the field; in maiden races, clear class separation at the top usually means the top two rated horses run 1-2 in some order. Trainer John Ennis places her at a 9/2 line, which is reasonable for a horse who may be playing second fiddle but should be closing ground.
Muriel Sax (No. 8) earns a 58.07 rating — third-best in the field — and her 54 average speed figure ties with Heavenly Mary and is respectable for this level. Trainer Ismael Bahena is a competent hand at Ellis Park, and Joseph D. Ramos provides a capable pilot. She's 6/1 on the line, making her a smart inclusion in exacta and trifecta tickets as a third wheel behind the top two.
Our three free races cover the early card on the dirt, and there's a real thread running through them: speed figures in these lower-tier maiden claiming and claiming fields are tightly bunched, which means pace scenario and rider confidence at morning line odds matter a lot. Nanzig opens the card in a maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs and carries our top TrackWiz rating of 80.89 — a solid number for this level. Swiftwind follows in Race 2 at 6 furlongs, breaking out at 6/1 on the morning line despite a nearly identical rating, which immediately flags value. Right and Tight rounds out the free trio in Race 3, another 6-furlong maiden claimer where the 6/1 line on our top-rated horse suggests the oddsmakers aren't fully sold — and that's exactly where we like to dig in.
On a warm day like today, these early dirt sprints tend to reward horses that can get out cleanly and set or press a manageable pace. Keep an eye on how the first couple of races play out — if front-runners are holding on, that's a signal worth carrying forward into your later wagering decisions.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Ellis Park is dealing a genuinely interesting 9-race card today, with Nanzig, Swiftwind, and Right and Tight headlining our free plays and Royal Guard standing out as the marquee pick of the afternoon. The turf races late in the card are the ones to circle — and our full pace projections and exotic strategies are waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.