You're reading 3 of 11 races free
Unlock the other 8 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.
Free Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions
Churchill Downs runs on dirt and turf, with about 77% of races on the dirt, racing from 5 fur to 1 1/2 mi, with fields averaging 9.9 starters. Every card gets free picks on selected races plus a full-card breakdown for subscribers — 52 Churchill Downs sheets published so far.
3 Free Races Today at Churchill Downs
Race 1
Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
A wide-open claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite looks vulnerable and the TrackWiz model has unearthed a clear top-rated horse at a juicy price — pace could be contested with several speed types in the field.
Lexi's Melody (7) is the standout on TrackWiz ratings, posting an 84.17 — the highest mark in this field by a comfortable margin. Luis Saez picks up the mount, and any time a rider of his caliber slides onto a horse in a 6.5-furlong claiming sprint at 5/1, you pay attention. Her 11% career win rate is respectable for this level, and the combination of elite rating and live jockey makes her our top selection.
She's Gotta Go (8) brings a solid 65.52 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win percentage that suggests she fires consistently. Cristian Torres keeps things simple up top in a sprint, and at 8/1 on the morning line she represents real value in the exacta underneath Lexi's Melody.
Click (5) is an interesting inclusion at 12/1 despite owning the second-highest rating in the field at 65.18. The average speed figure of 55 is the best in the race, which could matter if she gets a clean trip from post five. At those odds she's a strong exotics play for the trifecta.
Race 2
Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
The morning-line favorite doesn't hold up to scrutiny when you dig into the TrackWiz ratings — this Starter Allowance has a compelling pace setup and a legitimate longshot case lurking behind the chalk.
Show Time (5) leads this field with an 86.01 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the competition — and carries a career win rate of 33%, which is genuinely strong at any level. Rafael Bejarano has the experience to manage pace in a 6-furlong dirt sprint, and trainer David Jacobson also saddles Margin of Air, showing he's confident enough in this race to double up. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, but the underlying numbers say it's deserved.
Defending Albert (2) is a fascinating overlay at 8/1. His TrackWiz rating of 79.79 is second in the field — only 6 points behind the top pick — yet the morning line buries him near the bottom of the board. A 38% career win rate screams quality, and Francisco Arrieta is a capable partner in a short sprint. If Show Time gets into a pace duel, Defending Albert could be the one to catch him.
Cool Cowboy (4) checks in with a 72.44 rating and draws Luis Saez, one of the better riders on the Churchill circuit. The 10/1 morning line is generous for a horse with a 23% career win rate that suggests he hits the board far more often than he wins. He's a strong trifecta piece and worth a place flier.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Maiden claimers are notoriously tricky — no one in this field has ever visited the winner's circle — but one horse separates himself from the pack on TrackWiz ratings in a way that's hard to ignore.
Telecaster (6) posts an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, which towers over the rest of this maiden field — nearly 30 points clear of the next contender. He comes in with an average speed figure of 55, matching Roman Rogue for the best in the field, and William Antongeorgi III is a capable pilot who knows this course. In a maiden race where past form is thin, raw ratings carry extra weight, and Telecaster's number is hard to fade.
Task Force O (8) brings a 57.50 rating and that 53 average speed figure, giving him legitimate late-running credentials for trainer Dale Romans — a horseman who rarely shows up at Churchill without a live one. The 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects him, and he's a logical place horse if Telecaster breaks on top and goes wire to wire.
Roman Rogue (4) at 3/1 is an intriguing show play. Trainer Dallas Stewart's operation tends to be live when pointing to Churchill, and Roman Rogue's 55 average speed figure ties Telecaster for the field's best. If the pace gets hot up front, a closer profile in the 56-furlong sprint sets up nicely for a piece of the exotics.
Send me tomorrow's free Churchill Downs card before post time.
Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.
About the Churchill Downs Racing Surface
- Surfaces
- Dirt and Turf
- Distance range
- 5 fur to 1 1/2 mi
- Typical field
- 9.9 starters
- Typical card
- 9.7 races
Most common race conditions at Churchill Downs: Claiming, Maiden Special Weight, Maiden Claiming, Allowance Optional Claiming.
Measured across the last 24 Churchill Downs cards we have handicapped.
Recent Churchill Downs Race Sheets
- September 26, 202611 races
- September 25, 202610 races
- September 24, 20268 races
- September 23, 20269 races
- September 20, 202610 races
- September 19, 202611 races
- September 18, 202610 races
- September 17, 20268 races
- September 16, 20269 races
- September 13, 202610 races
Churchill Downs Picks — Common Questions
Is there a free Churchill Downs card?
Yes. Every Churchill Downs race sheet includes free picks with full analysis on selected races, with no account required. The remaining races on the card are part of a TrackWiz subscription.
What surface does Churchill Downs race on?
Churchill Downs cards run on dirt and turf. Across the last 24 cards, roughly 77% of races were on the dirt.
How many races are on a typical Churchill Downs card?
Churchill Downs cards average 9.7 races, with fields of about 9.9 starters. Distances run from 5 fur to 1 1/2 mi.
When are Churchill Downs picks published?
Churchill Downs picks are published ahead of the first post for that day's card. We have published 52 Churchill Downs sheets; you can get each new one by email before post time.