Free Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions

I Don't Get It draws the #3 post for trainer Jordan Blair and comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 73.56 — second-best in the field — alongside a 25% career win rate that speaks to consistency. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here if Ghazaaly soaks up pressure on the front end and leaves the door open for a closer.

Alternate Reality sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 72.81 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons — always a meaningful upgrade. The 5/2 morning line suggests the public respects this one, and with Joe Sharp saddling, the connections are sharp enough to have this horse fit and ready. A solid exotic anchor in a race where the top three ratings are clustered together.

Margoinabubblebath is a logical place play at 7/2 — she carries the top average speed figure in the race at 56 and her 30% career win rate shows she's capable of finishing the job. Axel Concepcion handles the riding duties for Michael Tomlinson, and the price represents fair value given she's one of only two horses in this field to post a speed number of 56 or better.

Blue Fire might be the most dangerous horse in here at 3/1, and trainer Steve Asmussen's 42% career win rate on this runner is an eye-catching number. Jose Ortiz pilots, giving her a top-five jockey in North America, and her TrackWiz rating of 78.08 sits firmly in contention range. She's the logical hedge for show tickets and a key player in exotics.

Ez Miss Sassy comes in with a 54.17 rating for trainer Mark Casse, another barn that routinely sends out well-prepared debutantes. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides, and her average speed figure of 53 gives her a tangible benchmark in a field where most runners have no published figures at all. The 9/2 morning line is workable for a place ticket.

Hormesis at 6/1 is an interesting show play — also trained by Kinnon LaRose, who doubles in this race with Intraosseous. LaRose clearly has confidence in both entries, and Hormesis draws Ben Curtis, a capable veteran who can manage a large field. A TrackWiz rating of 51.67 ties her with several others, but the connections and price point make her worth including in the show spot.