Free Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions

Tom Cat Tuesday (6) is a sneaky interesting play at 6/1 on the morning line, sitting second in the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and sharing a 56 average speed figure with Shan — the best in the field. Trainer Genaro Garcia also has Shan in this race, so he clearly likes this spot, and Tom Cat Tuesday looks like the barn's stronger entry based on the ratings. At those odds, he's a prime place candidate and a nice piece in the exacta.

Mitty's Griddy (1) sports the highest career win percentage in the field at 27% and a solid 81.34 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the race. Axel Concepcion gets the call, and this horse profiles as a consistent type who finds a way to hit the board. At 4/1, he's not a screaming value, but his win rate makes him a reliable show play and a worthwhile third leg in trifecta tickets.

Zimomo (1) is the overlay value angle here — sitting at 15/1 on the morning line but posting a 69.58 TrackWiz rating that's comfortably second in the field. Adam Beschizza takes the ride, and a 56 average speed figure ties for the field's best alongside a couple of others. If King Crusher runs into any traffic or trouble, Zimomo is the most likely alternative to hit the board, and at 15/1 he's a must-use in exactas and trifectas.

Trixie Barry (5) draws the talented Tyler Gaffalione and comes from the barn of Brendan P. Walsh, a trainer who regularly puts horses in position to fire first out. The 3/1 morning line makes her the public's second choice, and a 56.67 TrackWiz rating puts her third in the field. She's a logical show play and a key piece in rolling trifecta combinations.

Never a Doubt (3) is the race's most compelling place play, posting a 58.67 TrackWiz rating and carrying an impressive 50% career win rate — the second-best in the field among horses with meaningful starts. Luis Saez is a top-shelf rider who puts horses in position to fire, and the 9/5 morning line makes this one a likely short-priced favorite battle with Sargent Bilko. Use her underneath in your exotics as a reliable board-hitter.

Title Worthy (1) carries the most eye-catching career win percentage in the entire race card — 100% — which signals a horse whose connections know exactly where to spot their runner. Trainer Dallas Stewart is a Churchill specialist, and a 55.83 TrackWiz rating puts him squarely in contention at 7/2. He's a solid show inclusion and adds depth to your trifecta tickets at a workable price.