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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — November 5, 2026

November 5, 202610 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

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Race 12Flashy AviatorML 3/11:00 PM EST

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Flashy Aviator is our best bet among today's free races — a 3/1 morning line shot in Race 1 whose recent pace clocks rank second in the field and whose jockey has cashed in 54% of starts over the past year. That combo gives us real confidence in a wide-open maiden claiming opener.

The scene at Churchill Downs today is about as good as it gets for a November afternoon: clear skies, 65°F, and a fast dirt strip that should reward horses with clean early speed. Ten races spread across dirt and turf give us plenty to work with, from maiden claimers kicking things off to allowance routes closing out the card.

What makes today's card particularly interesting is the turf action in Races 4 and 8 — that 65-degree day should keep the turf playing true, and there are some intriguing prices hiding in those fields. We've got a full breakdown ready for subscribers.

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Race 1

1:00 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the Churchill dirt with an entirely 'unproven' field — no established running styles and ratings spread from 14 to 87, so the race shape is a genuine mystery. The top two rated horses separate themselves from the pack, but this is exactly the kind of race where the form book gets torn up.

win2Flashy AviatorML 3/1

Flashy Aviator tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and leads our 10,000-race simulation with a 25% win share — the highest in the field. Tyler Gaffalione is in the irons, posting an 18% win rate and 54% in-the-money mark over the past year, and the horse has placed in 2 of 3 starts on dirt. The concern worth noting is that Flashy Aviator ranks sixth in recent workout speed, so the sharp recent race pace at 12.66 sec/furlong needs to show up on the board to justify the 3/1 morning line.

place1Flaming MamaML 5/1

Flaming Mama sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 82.52 and owns the best recent race speed in the field at 12.24 sec/furlong — the top mark among all eight runners. Luis Saez is an A-grade jockey here with a 19% win rate, and the horse has placed in 6 of 10 dirt starts, giving it a legitimate claim to the board in a wide-open field like this.

show3GivemethebeatML 2/1

Givemethebeat is third in the ratings at 77.68 with Jose Ortiz (25% win rate, 61% ITM) giving it an elite pilot edge. The big caveat is a 109-day layoff — this horse historically thrives with less than 30 days of rest, posting a 40% WPS rate on shorter breaks versus 16.7% on longer ones. Worth including in exotics at the 2/1 morning line, but that rest concern is real and should temper expectations.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Flashy Aviator25%
3Givemethebeat24%
1Flaming Mama20%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Flashy Aviator gets the spotlight in Race 1, a 6-furlong dirt maiden claimer. The 12.66 sec/furlong recent speed figure ranks second in the field, and on a clear, fast Churchill surface, that kind of pace efficiency tends to translate well. The jockey angle adds a layer of confidence — 18% wins and a 54% in-the-money rate over the past year at this level is a legitimate edge, not noise. At 3/1, we're not talking about a screaming overlay, but the TrackWiz simulation has this horse winning 25% of the time, which makes the price work.

The firm conditions today favor horses who can run their race without fighting the track. Race 1 sets the tone — if the early pace shapes up the way we expect on this surface, Flashy Aviator has a clear path to the front without burning up. This is a straight-up play to win.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:29 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Eleven horses, all first-timers or short on record, make this a classic maiden claiming puzzle — the top TrackWiz-rated horse is an overlay at 12/1 while the morning-line favorite is a distant fifth in our ratings. Workout and recent race speed splits will matter more than past finishes in a field this green.

win6ClonmacnoiseML 12/1

Clonmacnoise is the top-rated horse in the field at 73.96 — a significant gap over the morning-line favorite — and has placed in 3 of 4 dirt starts with a 75% in-the-money rate. The recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.41 sec/furlong, and the horse has strung together placings in the last two races. The 12/1 morning line makes this one of the more compelling overlays on the card; our simulations have Clonmacnoise winning 13.72% of the time, comparable to City of Rome at 15.78% but at far better value.

place2City of RomeML 3/1

City of Rome brings the top workout figure in the field (11.90 sec/furlong, ranked first) and Jose Ortiz in the saddle — a jockey who has won 25% of his mounts and hit the board 61% of the time over the past year. The concern is that recent race speed ranks sixth and the horse failed to place in its last start, but the workout bullet and elite jockey combo make City of Rome a legitimate place contender at 3/1.

show3MartoneML 9/2

Martone gets Luis Saez aboard for trainer Joe Sharp — both carrying A and A- grades respectively — and owns the highest average speed figure in the field at 56. The horse failed to place last out, but in a wide-open maiden claimer with this much uncertainty, Saez's ability to get horses into contention makes Martone a reasonable exotic inclusion at 9/2.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

2City of Rome16%
6Clonmacnoise14%
3Martone13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:58 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The heavy morning-line favorite Smoted (6/5) is unbeaten but only tops the TrackWiz ratings at third — Cardio Cat leads the model at 86.35. This starter allowance features several horses with legitimate form, setting up a potential upset of the chalk.

win2Cardio CatML 7/2

Cardio Cat is the top TrackWiz-rated horse in this field at 86.35, ranking first with a 14% career win rate that understates a strong recent form cycle — 85% in-the-money and recent race speed ranked second at 12.12 sec/furlong. The Jose Ortiz/Steven Asmussen combo has connected at a 31% clip with a 73% ITM rate over the past year, which is elite by any measure. Our simulations give Cardio Cat the highest win probability at 26.67%, well ahead of the 7/2 morning line, making this a TrackWiz value play. The one flag is a workout ranking of seventh last month, but the race-day figures tell a more compelling story.

place1Speech and DramaML 10/1

Speech and Drama is 100% in-the-money on dirt — 4-for-4 on the surface with a win — and Luis Saez is a proven A-grade pilot. The horse sits second in TrackWiz ratings at 71.30 and has placed in four consecutive races, giving it strong place credentials even at the 10/1 morning line. That price against a horse this consistent is worth targeting in exacta and place wagers.

show8SmotedML 6/5

Smoted is the unbeaten crowd favorite at 6/5 and leads all runners in recent race speed at 12.02 sec/furlong, with Flavien Prat (29% win rate) doing the steering. While our model rates it third in the field, the perfect record and sharp recent figures make Smoted a near-lock for the board even if it gets beaten — a 100% career ITM rate demands respect in show position.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Cardio Cat27%
8Smoted21%
1Speech and Drama14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

2:27 PM EST

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A deep turf allowance at 5½ furlongs where the top TrackWiz rating and the morning-line favorite don't agree — Trouble Calling (5/1) tops the model while Outfielder (8/5) is the public choice. Several horses bring strong distance form, making this one of the more competitive races on the card.

win1Trouble CallingML 5/1

Trouble Calling tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and has placed in three consecutive races, posting recent race speed of 11.30 sec/furlong — second-best in the field. Luis Saez takes the mount with a 19% win rate and 49% ITM over the past year, and the horse has an 80% in-the-money rate across its career. Our simulations give it a 19.77% win share at a 5/1 morning line, suggesting mild overlay value against a field where the public money will gravitate toward Outfielder.

place3OutfielderML 8/5

Outfielder is a 71% career winner and ranks second in TrackWiz ratings at 76.05 — the morning-line public choice makes sense given the horse has placed in 3 of its last 4 and brings 2 wins in 3 starts at today's 5½-furlong distance. Tyler Gaffalione gets the call, and while the 8/5 price won't excite value hunters, the distance-specific form here is too strong to leave off the board.

show4Fourth and CentralML 10/1

Fourth and Central leads all runners in recent race speed at an impressive 10.98 sec/furlong and has placed in three straight races with a 71% career ITM rate. The 10/1 morning line is a potential overlay — our simulations have it winning 12.46% of the time, meaningful given the price. It's a legitimate show horse and worth including in exactas and trifectas.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Outfielder24%
1Trouble Calling20%
7Throckmorton18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

2:57 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance at seven furlongs where Good Mojo and Hillbilly Daydream are separated by just 0.13 TrackWiz rating points at the top of the field — essentially a coin flip between the two, with the rest of the field a step behind. Expect those two to be the story of this race.

win5Good MojoML 6/1

Good Mojo is the top-rated horse in the field at 82.71 and owns second-best recent race speed at 12.03 sec/furlong, with a form profile showing 1 win and 8 placings in 14 dirt starts — consistent money earner. Tyler Gaffalione pilots and his 18% win rate and 54% ITM on the year are solid. Our simulations give Good Mojo an 18.94% win share at 6/1, which represents genuine overlay value against a horse whose consistency on dirt makes it a deserving top pick.

place2Hillbilly DaydreamML 2/1

Hillbilly Daydream is essentially co-favorite in the ratings at 82.58 and has two wins in three dirt starts with a 66% career ITM rate — the strongest dirt record in the field. Recent race speed of 12.11 sec/furlong ranks third, and the horse has placed in its last two starts. At 2/1 on the morning line, the place price won't be generous, but this horse is too consistent to leave off the ticket.

show1JoinML 8/1

Join gets Luis Saez (A-grade jockey) and has placed in its last two races including a win and two placings in three Churchill Downs starts specifically. Ranked third in TrackWiz ratings at 58.10, the horse brings genuine local course form that matters at this track. The 8/1 morning line makes it a solid show and exotic inclusion behind the top two.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Hillbilly Daydream29%
5Good Mojo19%
3Ghostwritten15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:26 PM EST

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A sprawling 14-horse claiming field at a mile and a sixteenth where the top TrackWiz-rated horse Olazabal (8/1) is a double-digit overlay against the public's favorite — a classic spot for model-vs-crowd divergence. This big field with multiple class-droppers creates chaos but also opportunity.

win7OlazabalML 8/1

Olazabal tops the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 and owns impressive career form — 11 wins and 20 placings in 38 dirt starts, a resume that speaks to durability and consistency. Recent race speed ranks third in the field at 12.58 sec/furlong, and the horse has placed in 5 of its last 6 starts, making it one of the hottest horses in the race heading in. The age concern (6 years old) is noted, but that form streak argues it's still performing at a high level, and 8/1 is a generous price for the top-rated horse.

place13Pappy's RevengeML 4/1

Pappy's Revenge checks in second in the TrackWiz ratings at 75.62, and the jockey/trainer combo of Mendoza and Garcia has connected at a 25% win rate and 56% ITM over the past year together. With 4 wins and 13 placings in 25 dirt starts, there's proven quality here. The concerns — ranking 11th in recent race speed and workouts — are legitimate, but the connections and dirt form support a place ticket at 4/1.

show10Raising KaneML 3/1

Raising Kane is third in the ratings at 72.64 and has placed in four of its last six races while posting the top workout figure in the field (11.95 sec/furlong). The Joe Sharp barn carries an A- trainer grade, and Yomar Ortiz Jr. — a B+ jockey — takes the mount. The concern is recent race speed ranking 14th, suggesting the horse may have been conserving energy in recent outings, which could mean fresh legs in the stretch at 1 1/16 miles.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

10Raising Kane15%
13Pappy's Revenge14%
7Olazabal12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 7

3:55 PM EST

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Wild Recruit tops the TrackWiz ratings at 73.92 but carries a glaring sprint concern, while Boonesboro and Eight Seven Magic offer interesting angles at different price points. The pace shape is unknown, but several class-droppers including Rochester make this a tricky betting race.

win8Wild RecruitML 5/1

Wild Recruit leads the TrackWiz model at 73.92 and owns the top recent race speed figure in the field — a sharp 11.28 sec/furlong — along with the best workout figure last month at 11.67 sec/furlong. Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount with an 18% win rate, and Robert Hess Jr. is an A-grade trainer. The concern is real: Wild Recruit has placed in just 1 of 8 sprint races, so the speed figures need to translate to competitive racing in the final furlong. Our simulations give it an 18.54% win share, making it the model's top choice even with that caveat.

place2Eight Seven MagicML 15/1

Eight Seven Magic is the second-rated horse at 69.58 with 1 win and 4 placings in 8 dirt starts and recent race speed ranking third at 12.46 sec/furlong. The Steven Asmussen barn (A-grade) with Keith Asmussen up is a family combination that knows how to get horses ready. The 397-day layoff is worth flagging — our data describes this as a horse likely looking for a tightening race — but the second-best rating and 50% career ITM make it a legit place contender at 15/1 if it fires.

show1BoonesboroML 4/1

Boonesboro is third in the ratings at 68.12 and brings back-to-back positive angles: best recent race speed rank of second (12.35 sec/furlong), second-best workout of the month, and a win last out in September. Brian Lynch is an A-grade trainer. The concern is a 16% career in-the-money rate and poor dirt placing record, suggesting the horse can win but doesn't always close the loop. The 4/1 morning line is fair value for a show play given those credentials.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Wild Recruit19%
1Boonesboro18%
11Rochester14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 8

4:25 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open 16-horse maiden special weight on the turf at five furlongs — no dominant top-rated runner, with ratings bunched between 20 and 59.55. The jockey carousel here is one of the most telling factors, with Flavien Prat appearing twice and Jose Ortiz once in a field lacking deep form.

win9Won'tcatchmecryanML 6/1

Won'tcatchmecryan tops the TrackWiz ratings at 59.55 with Jaime Torres (A- jockey grade) in the irons. The horse holds a 33% in-the-money rate across its starts and an average speed of 55 — above the field median. With no race-specific figures to dissect for most of this maiden field, the top model rating combined with a capable jockey is the most reliable signal available, and our simulations give it a 9.71% win share in a highly competitive 16-horse field.

place1Our Patricia AnnML 7/2

Our Patricia Ann is second in the TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 with Walter Rodriguez — an A-grade jockey posting a 21% win rate and 52% ITM — taking the mount for Larry Rivelli, an A- trainer. This is a first-time starter or runner with minimal published figures, so we're leaning heavily on the connections and rating here. In a field this large and uncertain, the top-two rated horses with elite jockeys are the place bets that make the most sense structurally.

show15R Last LaughML 4/1

R Last Laugh gets Flavien Prat — the meet's hottest jockey at 29% wins and 66% ITM — and shows a 50% in-the-money rate from prior starts with second-best recent race speed at 11.95 sec/furlong. The trainer Brendan Walsh carries an A- grade. The workout concern (13th-ranked last month) is a flag, but Prat's ability to maximize horses in tight spots makes this a reasonable show inclusion at 4/1.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

15R Last Laugh11%
1Our Patricia Ann11%
3Cortina Gold11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 9

4:55 PM EST

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Penalty Box tops the TrackWiz ratings by a clear margin at 84.90 in what is otherwise a scattered allowance field — but the morning-line public has gone 6/5 on Zimmer, creating a potential overlay situation on the top-rated horse at 9/2. With 16 horses, finding the right exacta structure is as important as the win bet.

win8Penalty BoxML 9/2

Penalty Box is the top-rated horse in this field at 84.90, sitting above Zimmer's 59.67 by a significant margin — the widest rating gap at the top of any race today. The horse has placed in 6 of 9 dirt starts, is coming off two consecutive placings, and has hit the board in 3 of its last 5. Ben Curtis pilots for the B-grade trainer Michael McCarthy combination. Our simulations give Penalty Box a 17.15% win share at 9/2, which looks like meaningful value compared to Zimmer's 6/5 morning line.

place12Sweet FreedomML 12/1

Sweet Freedom is second in the TrackWiz ratings at 71.20 and has placed in an impressive 8 of 11 dirt starts — 3 wins and consistency throughout. Five consecutive in-the-money finishes coming in make this one of the form horses in the race. The concerns are worth noting: workouts rank 14th, and the horse is listed as older than the field average. At 12/1, however, the form streak alone makes Sweet Freedom a compelling place and exacta play.

show11Don's WinnerML 6/1

Don's Winner gets Luis Saez (A-grade) for trainer Joe Sharp (A-) and has placed in 2 of 4 dirt starts and 2 of 3 at Churchill Downs specifically. The local course form is a meaningful angle when sorting show horses in a 16-runner field. Third in the ratings at 68.01 with a 10.99% sim win share, Don's Winner is a logical trifecta and show bet at 6/1.

We ran Race 9 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Zimmer20%
8Penalty Box17%
11Don's Winner11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 10

5:24 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Energy Flows dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden special weight field at 82.32 — a substantial lead over second-ranked Joy of Life at 62.93 — and brings a perfect 3-for-3 dirt placing record. This one has the feel of a potential wire-to-wire performance, though the maiden tag keeps things honest.

win1Energy FlowsML 9/2

Energy Flows is the clear top pick at 82.32 TrackWiz rating — the largest rating advantage for a top-rated horse on today's card — and backs it up with substance: placed in every dirt start (3 of 3), hit the board in 3 of its last 4 races, and ranks second in recent race speed at 12.24 sec/furlong. Our simulations give Energy Flows a 23.16% win probability, the highest on the field by a wide margin. Brian Hernandez Jr. and trainer Kinnon LaRose (B- grade) are the connections, and while the jockey rating is C+, this horse's form does most of the talking.

place10Joy of LifeML 5/1

Joy of Life is second in the ratings at 62.93 and brings an interesting angle — the data notes it's had little sprint success and is trying an endurance race here. Junior Alvarado (B+ jockey) has connected with trainer William Mott at a 20% win rate and 55% ITM over the past year. The step up in distance is a legitimate angle for a horse that may simply need more ground to show its best, and the 5/1 morning line offers fair value for place.

show8UppityML 7/2

Uppity brings the best recent race speed figure in the field at 11.96 sec/furlong, top-ranked among all runners, and has placed in its only recent start with a 100% career ITM rate. Luis Saez (A-grade) handles for Brad Cox (A-grade trainer) — that's as elite a connection as you'll find outside of a graded stakes. The 7/2 morning line reflects the public's respect, and while the maiden tag and limited record create uncertainty, the speed figure and connections make Uppity a near-lock for the show position.

We ran Race 10 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Energy Flows23%
8Uppity14%
10Joy of Life13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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The headline play on today's free card is clear: Flashy Aviator in Race 1, backed by strong pace figures and a sharp jockey angle at a workable 3/1 price. Beyond that, there's real value scattered across this 10-race Churchill card, particularly in the longshot and turf angles our full analysis unpacks. Subscribers get the complete picture — pace shapes, exotic tickets, and every pick from Race 2 through Race 10. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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