Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — November 8, 2026

Anywhere With You posted the field's fastest recent race speed at 12.24 seconds per furlong and boasts a 100% in-the-money rate from prior starts — a rare stat in this field. The Gaffalione/Walsh combo hits at 24% win rate and 52% in-the-money, giving this horse a strong team behind her. The one concern is a poor recent workout rank (13th over the last month), so she may be doing her best work on race day rather than the training track.

Ultraviolet is an interesting inclusion at 5/2 on the morning line, sitting third in the TrackWiz ratings at 55.59 with trainer Brian Lynch earning an 'A' grade. The data doesn't offer a lot of recent race speed to hang your hat on, but the rating and connections justify a spot in the exotics. In a field this large and unpredictable, having a horse with top-tier connections at a mid-range price gives you coverage without overcommitting.

Soldier N Diplomat brings the most potent connections in the race — the Jose Ortiz/Steven Asmussen combo operates at a 31% win rate and 73% in-the-money rate together over the past year, which is elite at any level. The horse has won twice and placed in five of seven dirt starts, showing real affinity for the surface. The concern is a relatively modest recent race speed figure (ranked sixth in the field at 12.52 sec/furlong), but those connections alone justify a place ticket.

Just Deeds is a compelling value angle for the exotics at 10/1 on the morning line. The horse ranks second in recent race speed at 12.06 seconds per furlong — just a tick behind the leader — and has placed in all three of its last starts. A 66% career win rate and 100% in-the-money rate are eye-popping numbers, though the sample size behind those figures should be noted. That price against those stats makes this horse a smart trifecta inclusion.

Prank At Dawn checks the boxes for the Luis Saez/Brad Cox barn, which operates at a 28% win rate and 54% in-the-money together over the past year. The horse shows a 50% in-the-money rate from prior starts and ranks second in recent workout times at 11.85 seconds per furlong — suggesting she's training sharply coming in. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a horse with legitimate place potential to build your exotic tickets around.

Hips of a Lady is a sensible show inclusion at 6/1 — she's coming off a claiming price drop from $30,000 to $20,000 and ranks fourth in recent workout times at 12.05 seconds per furlong. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset earns an A-minus grade, which is real quality in a maiden claiming field. The concern is three consecutive non-placings, but the class relief and trainer quality make her worth a spot in trifecta tickets.

Torre Eiffel sits second in the ratings at 74.80 and brings the Steven Asmussen barn behind it — the top trainer grade in the field by a wide margin. The horse ranks third in recent race speed at 12.47 seconds per furlong and shows a 33% in-the-money rate from prior starts. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate overlay for the place slot given the connections and rating.

Bedeviled gives you two 'A' grades in the connections column — Luis Saez has hit the board 49% of the time over the past year, and trainer Steven Asmussen is the best in this field. The concerns are real, though: only one placing in the last six starts and a poor dirt surface record. This is very much a talent-over-form case, and at 9/2, you're paying for the ceiling — use it in trifectas rather than place singles.

Pretty Boy Bubba brings a 100% in-the-money rate from recent starts — placed in all three of the last three races — with Jose Bracho posting a strong 23% win rate and 59% in-the-money figure over the past year. The concern is a distance switch today, as the horse has found success but is stretching out from its previous comfort zone. At 12/1 on the morning line, the place price alone makes this worth including in exactas and trifectas.

Cavalli is the most straightforward show inclusion in this race — 100% in-the-money rate, Tyler Gaffalione in the irons (53% in-the-money over the past year), and the powerful Brendan Walsh barn. The Gaffalione/Walsh combo connects at 24% win rate and 52% in-the-money together. At 3/1, the price is tight, but the quality of connections and form make this a reliable ticket leg.

Stone County is a 15/1 morning line shot that presents legitimate value based on raw numbers — the horse posts the field's fastest recent race speed at 12.12 seconds per furlong and ranks second overall in the TrackWiz ratings at 69.58. Trainer Armando Hernandez earns an A-minus, and the horse has hit the board in four of eight dirt starts. At that price against those speed figures, Stone County is worth a serious look in exactas as the value underneath.

White Tiger brings an elite training barn — Brad Cox earns an 'A' — and Florent Geroux has hit the board 50% of the time over the past year. The horse has won and placed in two of three dirt starts and both of its Churchill Downs appearances specifically. At 7/2, the price is fair for a horse that fits this surface and track combination well and deserves a spot in your trifecta.

Special Sauce counters with the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 11.85 seconds per furlong — a blistering number that's going to put pressure on everything in this six-furlong sprint. The horse has placed in four straight starts and owns a 75% in-the-money rate across 12 dirt starts, posting five wins from that group. At 3/1, this is a horse that can beat Sneaky Good on a hot pace day and is worth using on top in exacta alternatives.

Nava's Gold has placed in five consecutive starts — the most sustained recent form in the race — and shows a 72% in-the-money rate across 11 dirt starts with five wins from that group. Luis Raul Rivera has a 22% win rate and 60% in-the-money figure over the past year, which is quietly elite. At 8/1 on the morning line, this horse is a smart show play and a trifecta staple given its rock-solid consistency.

Great Romance brings the Jose Ortiz/Cherie DeVaux combo, which operates at a 26% win rate and 57% in-the-money rate together over the past year — quality connections in a wide-open field. Ortiz himself ranks among today's Top 50 Jockeys and has hit the board 61% of the time over the last year. With no race speed data to evaluate the horse directly, the connections argument is the primary case — and at 7/2, you're buying into proven handlers in a soft field.

Middlemist brings the Brendan Walsh barn, which is 'A' rated, and Tyler Gaffalione in the irons — the same combo that fires at 24% win rate and 52% in-the-money together over the past year. The horse enters off a placing in its last start and shows a 100% in-the-money rate, giving it a form profile that holds up. At 9/2 on the morning line, Middlemist is a logical show ticket and trifecta leg to anchor your closer options in the finale.