Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — November 6, 2026

A La Vie holds the best recent race speed figure in the field at 12.19 sec/furlong and pairs that with a TrackWiz rating of 55, ranked second. Yomar Ortiz Jr. — a strong B+ jockey — rides for Joe Sharp, an 'A-' trainer who clearly knows how to place horses. The concern is her workouts rank ninth in the field, so she's shown more in race conditions than on the training track. At 4/1 she's a logical place play who could easily outrun the top pick if she gets a clean break.

Symmetric ranks third overall at 54.17 and brings the second-fastest workouts in the field at 11.85 sec/furlong — a meaningful positive when race figures aren't available. Walter Rodriguez, a strong 'A'-graded jockey who hits at 21% wins over the past year, gives her a sharp pilot from post seven. At 9/2 she offers solid exotics value and is a natural fit in trifecta and superfecta coverage alongside the top two.

Mighty Nora has the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 79.79 and boasts the best recent race speed in the field at 12.34 sec/furlong. She's placed in seven of ten dirt races with two wins, and she's placed in her last two outings, showing she's in solid form right now. At 8/1 on the morning line she's significantly undervalued in the place pool — if Just Singing gets beat, Mighty Nora looks like the most likely beneficiary.

My Steel Magnolia owns the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 12.22 sec/furlong and has placed in four of her last five starts — that kind of recent consistency is hard to ignore. She carries a TrackWiz rating of 70.36, ranked third, and has placed in four of five dirt races overall. At 4/1 she's a natural third horse in exacta and trifecta tickets and brings reliable recent form to back it up.

Paradise Street comes in rated second at 67.88 and benefits from the Jose Ortiz–Mark Casse combination — Ortiz hits at 25% wins and 61% in the money over the past year, and Casse grades at 'A'. The concern that stands out is she's failed to place in her last three races, which is a real red flag. That said, the connections are elite and she carries a 40% in-the-money rate overall — a bounce-back effort from a sharp barn is always possible.

Acquazurra slots in as the show pick with a 58.08 TrackWiz rating, ranked third, and Luis Saez — 19% wins and 49% in the money over the past year — takes the mount. She's coming off a 321-day layoff, which always introduces uncertainty, and she's placed in just one of four sprint races. However, Cherie DeVaux has her ready enough to run, and at 6/1 she's an interesting third horse in exotics if she shakes off any rust from that long absence.

Crazy Diamond ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 70.31 and has the third-best recent race speed in the field at 12.67 sec/furlong. Her workouts rank second in the field at 12.00 sec/furlong, suggesting she's been training sharply heading into today. Abel Cedillo gets the mount and while his grade is 'C', the horse's raw numbers make her worth including in exactas and trifectas behind the top pick at a 3/1 morning line.

Wytheville may have zero race data on file — she's a first-time starter — but the angles here are hard to dismiss. She's trained by Wesley Ward, an 'A'-graded conditioner who consistently fires sharp debut runners, and her workouts are the fastest in the field at 11.88 sec/furlong. Walter Rodriguez, who hits at 21% wins over the past year, handles the mount. At 5/2 on the morning line she's going to be well-bet, but the connections and work tab justify including her in the exotics.

Inordinary carries a 76.58 TrackWiz rating and has two wins from ten dirt starts with a 54% career in-the-money rate — solid numbers for a claiming horse. What stands out is that he won last time raced at this exact surface and distance combination, and he's placed in two of three medium distance races. The concern is he's listed with only 22 days of rest but tends to perform better with 30 or more — keep that in mind, but his form and fitness credentials make him the logical second horse.

Damascus Steel ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 73.02 and has the second-best recent race speed in the field at 12.34 sec/furlong, with Luis Saez in the irons. He's also posted the second-fastest workouts in the field at 12.00 sec/furlong, so he's prepped and working well. The concern is real — he's failed to place in his last four starts and has zero in-the-money finishes in two Churchill Downs tries — but at 6/1 he brings enough raw ability to include as a third horse in exotics.

Encino is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 but ranks second to Yinzer in the TrackWiz ratings at 65.21. His recent race speed is the best in the field at 11.97 sec/furlong, and he's placed in his last two races. Brad Cox is an 'A'-grade trainer who consistently puts horses on the board, and Tyler Gaffalione, 18% wins and 54% in the money, rounds out a sharp set of connections. The concern — zero in-the-money finishes in two Churchill Downs starts — is worth noting but doesn't undermine his fitness.

Johny's Rendezvous sits third in the ratings at 62.73 and brings the third-best recent race speed in the field at 12.07 sec/furlong. Jose Ortiz, who hits at 25% wins and 61% in the money over the past year, is one of the best riders in the country and takes the mount. His workouts rank first in the field at 11.95 sec/furlong, suggesting Philip Bauer has him ready to run his best — a logical third horse in a trifecta underneath the top two.

Cavatelli ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 75.79 and owns the second-best recent race speed in the field at 12.45 sec/furlong. She's also dropping in claiming price from $20,000 to $16,000, which is a classic spot-play angle — connections are lowering the price to find a winner, not to give her away. At 6/1 she's a solid value play in the exotics and a legitimate contender to hit the board in a wide-open field.

Vinno Ronnie comes in rated third at 67.88 and pairs her class drop from $20,000 to $16,000 with the best workouts in the entire field at 11.80 sec/furlong. Miguel Fernandez, who checks in at 21% wins and 60% in the money over the past year, is a live rider. The combination of a fresh workout tab, a claiming price reduction, and a solid jockey makes Vinno Ronnie a natural inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets at a 10/1 morning line.