Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — October 25, 2026

October 25, 202611 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

It's a beautiful fall Sunday at Churchill Downs — 68 degrees, partly cloudy skies, and conditions that should keep the dirt track playing fast all afternoon. Eleven races are on the board today, and the card builds nicely from a maiden-heavy early slate into a pair of Stakes showdowns that close things out in style.

The turf course gets plenty of action too, with three grass routes and a short turf sprint sprinkled through the middle of the card. If there's any moisture hanging around from earlier in the week, keep an eye on how the turf is playing through the first few races — that information can be gold when you're building your multi-race tickets.

All told, it's the kind of card that rewards patience early and bold swings late. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

1:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden dirt mile with two heavy hitters at the top — Brad Cox's lightly raced runner carries the morning line and a top TrackWiz rating, but Kenneth McPeek's charge at 5/2 makes this a two-horse show worth watching closely.

win5Broadway GirlML 8/5

Broadway Girl is our top selection in this opener, posting the field's best TrackWiz rating at 59 for Brad H. Cox — one of the most dangerous trainers in the country with first-time starters. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the call, and when Cox puts Irad aboard a debut runner, you pay attention. She's one of three horses in this field without a published speed figure, which typically signals a trainer holding back a well-bred runner for the right spot — and a maiden special weight mile at Churchill looks like exactly that spot.

place3Seaton SpringsML 5/2

Seaton Springs draws the morning-line favoritism at 5/2 with a 57.5 rating and the services of Jose L. Ortiz for conditioner Kenneth G. McPeek. McPeek knows how to spot a horse in a race it can handle, and a one-mile maiden on dirt suits a patient, developing runner. Without a published speed figure, the intrigue is high — this one could easily flip the order with Broadway Girl.

show8Tess Me NotML 9/2

Tess Me Not brings an avg speed figure of 54 under trainer Albert M. Stall, Jr. — a solid conditioner who gets his horses fit. The 9/2 morning line and 54.17 rating suggest the market respects this filly, and Axel Concepcion has been a reliable rider in these maiden routes. She's a logical exotics piece to round out your tri.

Race 2

1:29 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Sixteen runners scatter across the Churchill turf in a wide-open maiden route — pace will be hard to predict in a field this deep, and the winner could come from just about anywhere in the post parade.

win14Anywhere With YouML 3/1

Anywhere With You tops our TrackWiz board here at 56.67 for trainer Brendan P. Walsh, who is one of the sharpest turf conditioners operating today. The 3/1 morning line is the shortest among the serious contenders, and Tyler Gaffalione — who also has the 12 horse — clearly had a choice and picked this one first. An avg speed of 54 provides a solid baseline for a first-time turf starter or lightly raced runner in this company.

place11Novo MestoML 7/2

Novo Mesto checks in at 55.83 on the TrackWiz scale for trainer Eddie Kenneally, a horseman with a strong eye for placing turf runners. Sitting at 7/2 on the morning line with Francisco Arrieta up, this one projects as a stalker type who can close into a modest pace. The avg speed of 55 gives him a slight edge on raw numbers over much of this field.

show7Daddy's NuggetML 5/1

Daddy's Nugget at 5/1 for Rodolphe Brisset is an interesting piece in the exotics — Brisset is a trainer who takes his time developing horses, and Flavien Prat is not a jockey who wastes his afternoons on throw-ins. No published speed figure here, which keeps the price honest and makes this worth including in your trifecta underneath.

Race 3

1:58 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong maiden sprint looks like a near-demolition job on paper — one horse's TrackWiz rating laps the field by more than 30 points, which almost never happens in an open maiden.

win5Pirate ShipML 7/2

Pirate Ship is the most dominant number we've seen in today's card, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — more than 30 points clear of the second-best horse in the race. Trainer Joe Sharp is a respected conditioner and Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the mount, a combination that screams confidence. The 7/2 morning line seems almost generous given this rating gap, and an avg speed of 54 gives him a legitimate pace profile to work with in a six-furlong sprint.

place4KarajanML 4/1

Karajan rates out at 55.0 for Dale L. Romans with an avg speed of 55 — actually the highest avg speed figure among the contenders who have run. Flavien Prat is a savvy pilot who will put this horse in the right spot early, and at 4/1, he's the most logical runner-up if Pirate Ship handles his business cleanly.

show8Epic MaxML 5/1

Epic Max at 5/1 for trainer Carlos Santamaria gets Jaime A. Torres in the irons and projects as a live exotics piece. No speed figure on record keeps him interesting at that price — Santamaria's horses don't always announce themselves early, and a first or second start can sometimes produce a sneaky performance. Round out your trifectas with this one.

We're opening three races to every TrackWiz reader today. Broadway Girl (8/5 ML) kicks things off in Race 1, a one-mile maiden on the dirt — she carries our highest confidence rating among the free picks and looks like a solid place to start building a bankroll. Race 2 shifts to the turf for 1 1/16 miles, where Anywhere With You (3/1) shapes up as a logical top choice in what figures to be a more wide-open affair. Then in Race 3, Pirate Ship (7/2) stands out with the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 86.35 — that kind of number in a six-furlong maiden sprint demands attention, even at a price that isn't quite chalk.

The dirt-speed angle looks strong through the early races, and if the fast track we're expecting holds, horses that can get out and control the pace early could be particularly tough to run down. Keep that in mind as you handicap the free races and use it as a framework heading into the premium portion of the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

2:28 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A massive 15-horse maiden sprint for fillies — Brad Cox's Nauti Talk draws the top TrackWiz rating but faces a deep, unpredictable field where pace could be chaotic with this many runners breaking from the gate.

win12Nauti TalkML 7/2

Nauti Talk is our top selection for trainer Brad H. Cox with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — the top figure in the field — and Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the call. Cox and Irad is one of the most dangerous partnerships in North American racing, particularly with lightly raced fillies who haven't yet shown their ceiling. The 7/2 morning line is fair given the field size, and this looks like a horse Cox has been pointing toward a debut performance.

place4Voli TeML 9/2

Voli Te checks in at 54.17 for trainer Joe Sharp with Jose L. Ortiz up — a potent combination. Sharp is extremely capable of placing a filly exactly where she belongs, and Ortiz is one of the best riders in the country at rating pace and making a decisive move at the right moment. No published speed figure adds some mystery, but the 9/2 price on this barn and jock combo deserves respect.

show8Chasing AcesML 5/1

Chasing Aces at 5/1 for Ethan W. West carries a 53.33 rating — third-best in the field — with Luan Machado up. No published speed figure on record, but the rating suggests solid underlying ability, and at 5/1 in a chaotic 15-horse field, she's a reasonable show ticket and exotics anchor underneath the top two.

Race 5

2:57 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Sixteen colts and geldings go a mile on the Churchill turf in a race with a clear standout on our numbers — but at 3/1 in a 16-horse field, there's plenty of room for a price horse to grab a piece of the pie.

win14Castle PinesML 3/1

Castle Pines is the class of this field by a meaningful margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 66.83 — nearly 11 points clear of the next horse — for trainer J. Kent Sweezey with Edgar Morales in the irons. That kind of separation in a maiden turf mile is significant, and the 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate public respect. An avg speed of 54 on the turf is a workable foundation, and Sweezey is a horseman who picks his spots carefully.

place6IdeationML 7/2

Ideation rates at 55.83 for trainer Jack Sisterson with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard — and posts the field's best avg speed figure at 56. Sisterson is a sharp conditioner who knows how to develop turf horses, and Irad doesn't make many wrong choices when it comes to mount selection. At 7/2, this one makes complete sense as the main threat to Castle Pines.

show13TravelinML 4/1

Travelin at 4/1 for trainer Brian A. Lynch draws the legendary John R. Velazquez — a rider who has won on the Churchill turf more times than most people can count. The 55.0 TrackWiz rating and avg speed of 53 are honest enough numbers in this company, and Lynch is excellent at spotting turf routes. A show ticket or trifecta inclusion at 4/1 is solid value.

Race 6

3:26 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Most of this six-furlong maiden dirt sprint is wide open — but one horse stands apart with both the top rating AND actual race experience, giving him a meaningful edge over a field full of unknowns.

win9VukotaML 5/2

Vukota is the most compelling single-horse story on today's card at Churchill — a 50% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 57.5 make him a clear standout in a field where every other runner is either unraced or without a win on their resume. Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. gets the mount for trainer Kinnon LaRose, and the 5/2 morning line actually feels fair given those credentials. An avg speed of 55 rounds out the profile nicely for a six-furlong sprint.

place3Lord MischiefML 4/1

Lord Mischief at 4/1 carries a 55.0 rating for Brad H. Cox with Irad Ortiz, Jr. up — a combination that needs no further introduction. Cox is outstanding with maiden runners, and while this one lacks a published speed figure, the rating and connections suggest he's ready to run a big race first off the shelf.

show7C R SultanML 6/1

C R Sultan at 6/1 for trainer Lilia Gonzalez posts the field's best published avg speed figure at 56 — a legitimate number for a six-furlong sprint. Joseph M. Romero rides, and while Gonzalez is a lesser-known name, C R Sultan's raw speed number makes him worth including on the bottom of your trifectas if you're looking for a value piece.

Race 7

3:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Bob Baffert drops a well-regarded filly into this maiden sprint and she draws the top TrackWiz rating, but an unusually deep 14-horse field with several capable second-time starters makes this more complicated than the morning line suggests.

win11Scarlet RibbonsML 5/2

Scarlet Ribbons hits the board at 57.5 for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, and Flavien Prat gets the call — an elite jockey-trainer pairing that rarely goes to the post without a live runner. The 5/2 morning line leads the field, matching her top TrackWiz rating. Baffert debuting a filly at Churchill with Prat up at 5/2 is a statement of intent — this barn doesn't make mistakes about readiness.

place7Stand by MeML 9/2

Stand by Me checks in at 54.17 for trainer Eric N. Foster with Francisco Arrieta up, posting the field's best avg speed of 55 among horses with a published figure. That's meaningful in a six-furlong sprint where early pace and raw speed matter — she has the numbers to be competitive at 9/2 and makes a logical place play.

show12LuxdominaML 5/1

Luxdomina at 5/1 for Brad H. Cox draws Irad Ortiz, Jr. — a pairing that always carries weight in maiden company. The 53.33 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and Cox is adept at having maiden fillies ready to run with Irad up. No speed figure on the books keeps the price elevated, making her a solid exotics inclusion at 5/1.

Race 8

4:25 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf allowance brings together a mixed group of winners and winless types — but one horse's TrackWiz rating towers over the field, and the market-favorite favorite looks like the main speed to beat underneath.

win3Bee CrazyML 3/1

Bee Crazy is our top pick here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the second-highest single-horse figure we've seen across today's entire card. Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount for trainer Kelsey Danner, and this filly brings a 20% career win rate and a sharp avg speed of 57 to a short five-furlong turf sprint. At 3/1, there's legitimate value here given that rating gap over the field.

place8MedinahML 6/5

Medinah enters as the morning-line favorite at 6/5 for trainer Mark E. Casse with Jose L. Ortiz up — a combination that absolutely commands respect. She carries a 50% career win rate and a 59.67 TrackWiz rating, with an avg speed of 56 on the turf. If anything beats Bee Crazy today, it's almost certainly this one, and Casse and Ortiz will have her in a perfect tactical spot.

show10Gal PalML 6/1

Gal Pal at 6/1 for George R. Arnold II with Axel Concepcion up is a quietly interesting piece. No published speed figure keeps the price up at 6/1, but the 51.67 TrackWiz rating is respectable in this company and Arnold is capable of getting a turf filly ready for a sharp effort. Use her on the bottom of your exactas as a hedge against the top two.

Race 9

4:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Today's first stakes race is a genuine puzzle — the morning-line favorite has a strong record but our TrackWiz analysis points to two double-digit longshots with significantly higher ratings, setting up a potential value explosion.

win4CountthetrueML 12/1

Countthetrue is our top selection at 12/1, and here's why that price makes sense: her TrackWiz rating of 73.96 is the highest in the field by a considerable margin — more than 13 points clear of the morning-line favorite. Trainer Wayne M. Catalano places his horses thoughtfully in stakes company, and Edgar Morales gets the assignment. A 20% career win rate in stakes company is an honest foundation, and the avg speed of 53 fits the distance profile for a 1 1/16-mile dirt test.

place1IntraosseousML 10/1

Intraosseous at 10/1 for trainer Kinnon LaRose with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. aboard posts the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 60.51 — ahead of the favorite. A 33% career win rate and avg speed of 54 are legitimate credentials at this level, and LaRose has quietly assembled a capable string this meet. At 10/1, this is a play that makes the trifecta extremely attractive.

show2WharfieML 9/5

Wharfie at 9/5 for William I. Mott with Junior Alvarado is the morning-line choice and has a 50% career win rate to back it up. The 58.67 TrackWiz rating is respectable, but our analysis puts her third in this field. She's the most likely horse to pick up a check regardless — Mott-trained runners rarely run badly in spots like this, and Alvarado will have her running late.

Race 10

5:25 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The nightcap stakes is loaded with winners — four of eight horses carry a 50% or better career win rate — but our top-rated horse is an overlay at 6/1 who has consistently produced results in this kind of company.

win6JasML 6/1

Jas is our top selection at 6/1 for Hall of Fame trainer Steven M. Asmussen, posting the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 60.58 — just ahead of the morning-line favorite. Keith J. Asmussen gets the mount, and this is a trainer-jockey family connection that runs deep at Churchill Downs. A 33% career win rate with an avg speed of 54 fits the 1 1/16-mile dirt distance, and 6/1 on the top-rated horse in a stakes field is the kind of value TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place4Mystik BayouML 9/5

Mystik Bayou at 9/5 for Kenneth G. McPeek with Jose L. Ortiz is the market's choice, and it's not hard to see why — a 50% career win rate and a 58.67 TrackWiz rating are legitimate stakes credentials. McPeek has had a strong meet, and Ortiz will get this horse into the race at the right time. He's a solid place pick whether he wins or runs second.

show3Card ManML 5/2

Card Man at 5/2 for Chad C. Brown with Flavien Prat is simply a horse you can never completely dismiss. Brown and Prat is one of the elite partnerships in the game, and a 50% career win rate with an avg speed of 55 in stakes company demands respect. The 57.5 TrackWiz rating is third in the field, and if the top two have any trouble, Prat will be right there to pick up the pieces.

Race 11

5:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

The finale is a one-mile maiden dirt route for juveniles featuring a compact battle between two well-connected barns — Cox and Baffert — while a handful of 6/1 shots could complicate things if the pace collapses.

win5Fools Rush InML 3/1

Fools Rush In tops our TrackWiz board at 56.67 for Brad H. Cox with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons — the third time today this duo shows up in a top spot, and their consistency across the card speaks for itself. The 3/1 morning line is the shortest in the field, reflecting genuine public confidence, and an avg speed of 55 is the best among the short-priced contenders. Cox maiden runners with Irad up at a mile on dirt are a strong formula.

place6Runnin Out of TimeML 4/1

Runnin Out of Time at 4/1 for Bob Baffert with Rafael Bejarano gets our place nod. A 55.0 TrackWiz rating and avg speed of 54 are honest numbers for a maiden mile, and Baffert runners at Churchill with respected jockeys rarely come up flat. This is a barn that knows how to point a horse at a specific race, and this looks like that race.

show1FullbackML 6/1

Fullback at 6/1 for William I. Mott with Tyler Gaffalione rounds out our picks. A 51.67 rating and avg speed of 54 are workable figures for a one-mile maiden, and Mott is one of the best trainers in the country at having route horses ready to fire. Gaffalione is riding exceptionally well, and at 6/1, Fullback is a solid show ticket and trifecta bottom.

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Bottom line: Pirate Ship in Race 3 is the free-play standout of the day, and Countthetrue at 12/1 in the Race 9 Stakes is the kind of longshot angle that makes handicapping fun. The full card analysis — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and all eight premium races — is waiting for subscribers. Don't leave money on the table today.

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