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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 27, 2026

September 27, 202610 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

Churchill Downs is open for business on a beautiful Sunday afternoon — clear skies, 71°F, and a 10-race card that covers just about everything from maiden sprints to a 1⅜-mile turf marathon. Conditions don't get much cleaner than this at the track, and a firm turf course combined with a fast-playing dirt strip should reward horses with tactical speed and class.

Today's card is a genuine mixed bag in the best way. You've got three maiden special weight races on the front end, a pair of turf allowances including that long-distance closer in Race 10, and a starter allowance in Race 9 that TrackWiz analysis has flagged as one of the more intriguing spots on the card. Ten races, plenty of angles, and some real value hiding in spots where the crowd might not be looking.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with several first-time starters and no dominant speed figure on the board — TrackWiz ratings separate the top four by fewer than two points, so pace and post position could decide this one.

win4Flaming VerdictML 3/1

Flaming Verdict draws our top rating at 56.67 in this competitive maiden field and gets the services of Tyler Gaffalione, one of the meet's most reliable pilots. Trainer Michael J. Maker has a strong reputation for having his maidens ready to fire first out, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market agrees this one has real upside. In a race where most rivals are making their debuts without published speed figures, Flaming Verdict's edge in our model is meaningful enough to trust.

place7She's ToastyML 7/2

She's Toasty slots in as our place selection with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and the powerful Luis Saez call from the seven-hole. Trainer Eddie Kenneally consistently puts up competitive first-time starters, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's fair value if she fires a big debut. The outside draw could prove advantageous in a field that may see early traffic.

show3Cowgirl TuffML 4/1

Cowgirl Tuff earns the show spot with a 55.0 rating and the standout jockey Jose L. Ortiz in the irons — a combo that should keep her in contention. She's trained by Joe Sharp, who also saddles the top-rated Flaming Verdict, giving the barn a strong two-pronged attack. If the race sets up with early pace pressure, Cowgirl Tuff's rating and connections give her a legitimate shot to hit the board.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Skyforge looks vulnerable here — She's Our Girl and Al Ghadeer both carry higher TrackWiz ratings than the 4/5 chalk, making this a rare spot where fading a heavy favorite has legitimate data behind it.

win6She's Our GirlML 3/1

She's Our Girl posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.08, running well clear of the favorite Skyforge's 74.94 — that's a significant model gap in a maiden route. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. picks up the mount for trainer Peter Eurton, a West Coast-based conditioner who clearly likes what he sees in shipping this filly to Churchill Downs. Her average speed of 53 is competitive, and if she gets a clean trip at 1 1/16 miles, she's our clear top choice.

place2Al GhadeerML 6/1

Al Ghadeer is the most intriguing horse in the race, carrying a 82.25 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — yet going off at 6/1 on the morning line while Skyforge gets all the chalk money. Trainer Andrew McKeever with Danny Sheehy aboard is a pairing worth tracking, and an average speed of 54 matches up well with the top selection. This is a legitimate value play for the exacta.

show1SkyforgeML 4/5

Skyforge slots third in our analysis despite being the heavy favorite at 4/5, and the show spot seems like the safest way to include her. Trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by Gaffalione, the connections are elite — but an average speed of 53 and a TrackWiz rating of 74.94 rank her third in this field behind two horses going off at longer odds. If you're playing exotics, using her underneath at short chalk money makes more sense than backing her on top.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An allowance mile on the turf with legitimate form horses going multiple different directions — That's Fire presents a value case at 6/1 despite our model ranking it at the top of a competitive field, setting up a potential overlay scenario.

win4That's FireML 6/1

That's Fire leads our TrackWiz ratings at 63.51 and carries a 33% career win rate — solid for a horse competing at allowance level on the turf. Trainer Raymond C. Bryner puts Assael Espinoza up for this one, and while the 6/1 morning line feels generous for a model-topper, that's exactly the kind of value spot we love. The average speed figure of 52 is the lowest of the top contenders, but our overall rating accounts for more than raw speed, and That's Fire clears the field comfortably.

place3Majik MooneyML 5/2

Majik Mooney is a fascinating place contender — a perfect 100% career win rate backing up a 57.5 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. Jose L. Ortiz for Joe Sharp is a go-to combo at Churchill Downs, and the average speed of 54 is right in the mix for this distance. The 5/2 morning line is short for a place bet, but the profile says this horse knows how to win.

show2Sir HansenML 3/1

Sir Hansen rounds out our ticket with a 56.67 rating and Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle for Michael J. Maker — a trainer who excels with turf horses. A 50% career win rate is encouraging, and the 3/1 price on the morning line gives decent exacta and trifecta coverage. In a race where the pace scenario is unclear, a closer with Gaffalione guiding from just outside gives Sir Hansen a natural trip.

Our three free races today cover a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 kicks things off with a 6-furlong maiden sprint on dirt where Flaming Verdict draws our attention despite a fairly wide-open field. Race 2 stretches out to 1 1/16 miles on the main track, and She's Our Girl comes in with our highest confidence rating among the free picks — that 87.08 TrackWiz rating is the kind of number that stands out in a maiden field. Then Race 3 heads to the turf for a one-mile allowance where That's Fire is the 6/1 morning line overlay we're recommending — a price worth noting given the conditions today.

The through-line across these three races? The clean weather removes the guesswork around surface variability. No rain, no slop, no excuses. Horses that want firm footing get firm footing, and that tends to tighten the gap between paper expectations and actual performance. Straightforward handicapping conditions — which is exactly when trusting your ratings pays off.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Subjugation stands dramatically apart from this maiden field on our model, but at 6/1, there's real overlay potential against a race where no other horse cracks a TrackWiz rating above 57 — this one sets up as a potential single in multi-race sequences.

win4SubjugationML 6/1

Subjugation is our strongest play of the first half of the card, posting a 82.71 TrackWiz rating that towers over the next-best horse at 56.67. The Steven Asmussen-Keith Asmussen trainer-jockey connection is a powerful family combo, and an average speed figure of 54 gives this runner a concrete benchmark while several rivals are still unproven. At 6/1 on the morning line — significantly longer than the 3/1 Kamassa — the market appears to be underrating what our model sees as a commanding class edge.

place8KamassaML 3/1

Kamassa is the public's second choice at 3/1 with Jose L. Ortiz up for Wayne Catalano, a trainer who knows how to place horses. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is squarely in the middle tier of this field, but with the top jockey on the grounds in Ortiz, Kamassa should find a clean trip from the eight-hole and figure into the exacta. Worth using underneath Subjugation in your vertical wagers.

show6Yacht MasterML 7/2

Yacht Master gets the show spot backed by the Bob Baffert-Tyler Gaffalione combo — two names that command attention any time they appear on a program. The 55.83 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and Baffert consistently ships horses ready to run on first asking. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a logical board horse for trifecta coverage.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Kid Twist dominates the TrackWiz model in this claiming sprint and gets a single-digit morning line that still looks like value — the real intrigue is whether Act of Parliament or Easy Dial can make a race of it and create exotic payoffs.

win6Kid TwistML 3/1

Kid Twist is the standout in Race 5 with a 87.08 TrackWiz rating — nearly 29 points clear of the field's next-best runner. Jose L. Ortiz for trainer Carlos A. David is a sharp combination, and with a 9% career win rate, this horse has been competitive against tougher. An average speed figure of 55 leads the field outright, and at 3/1 on the morning line, we're not looking at generous value but the model is emphatic: this is the horse to beat.

place1Act of ParliamentML 8/1

Act of Parliament is our place selection at a juicy 8/1 morning line, making this a genuine value play for the exotics. The 58.16 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and a 25% career win rate is the highest of any horse on the board — meaning when Act of Parliament has been right, it finishes. Luis Saez picks up the mount for trainer Matt Shirer, and the average speed of 54 keeps this one honest throughout a seven-furlong test.

show8Easy DialML 8/1

Easy Dial mirrors Act of Parliament's 58.16 TrackWiz rating and also goes at 8/1 on the morning line, making the show spot a value-conscious hedge in what could be a pace-influenced result. The 20% career win rate and average speed of 54 for Francisco Arrieta and trainer Thomas Van Berg paint a picture of a consistent, honest horse. In a race where the top two picks share the same rating, using Easy Dial underneath gives your trifecta ticket a solid backup.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Cromwell is the class of this maiden route field by a wide margin on our model, but the real story is whether Don's Winner and Liberty Valance can give the 2/1 favorite a genuine test at 1 1/8 miles.

win4CromwellML 2/1

Cromwell tops our TrackWiz model at 88.54 — a dominant figure that's more than 17 points clear of the next-best runner, Don's Winner at 71.12. Jose L. Ortiz rides for trainer Cherie DeVaux, and at 2/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of maiden who projects to graduate first out or very close to it. An average speed of 54 is workmanlike for a route, and the combination of elite jockey and strong model score makes Cromwell our most confident play of the evening.

place8Don's WinnerML 4/1

Don's Winner earns the place slot with a 71.12 TrackWiz rating and Luis Saez aboard for the hot Joe Sharp barn. The average speed of 54 keeps pace with Cromwell in that department, and Sharp has multiple runners on this card performing well — suggesting the stable is in top form. At 4/1 on the morning line, Don's Winner offers solid exacta value behind the heavy favorite.

show7Liberty ValanceML 8/1

Liberty Valance represents a sneaky show play at 8/1 morning line with a 69.29 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Brendan Walsh, a trainer with an excellent record placing lightly raced horses in spots where they can fire. The average speed of 53 is competitive at this distance, and the generous odds make Liberty Valance a trifecta key worth singling underneath the top two.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Foxiest is drawing heavy public action at 6/5, but Texas Dandelion's substantially higher TrackWiz rating at 8/1 sets this up as a prime overlay scenario — and the exotics could be lucrative if the model is right.

win7Texas DandelionML 8/1

Texas Dandelion is the play of the race from a value standpoint — the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79, going off at 8/1 while Foxiest at 6/5 draws all the chalk. Jose L. Ortiz saddles up for Joe Sharp, who has been firing all card long, and an average speed of 54 is right in range for this 7.5-furlong maiden distance. When our model separates a horse this cleanly from the favorite and the price is nearly seven times longer, that's a play we make with conviction.

place3FoxiestML 6/5

Foxiest is the public's choice at 6/5 for Brad Cox and Luis Saez — a combination that commands respect at Churchill Downs. The 59.67 TrackWiz rating is second in the field, and an average speed of 55 leads all horses in the race. Even if Foxiest doesn't win outright, the elite connections and speed figures make a place finish the most likely outcome.

show5DantiniML 9/2

Dantini checks in at 9/2 on the morning line with a 54.17 TrackWiz rating and a legitimate average speed of 56 — the fastest workout-level figure in the field. Axel Concepcion rides for William Walden, and in a race where pace could be a factor at 7.5 furlongs, a horse with strong early numbers gives a good account of itself hitting the board. Solid trifecta inclusion at a fair price.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This wide-open turf sprint allowance features 15 runners, a chaotic pace scenario, and a legitimate overlay in Shirley Ann — whose TrackWiz rating of 84.17 stands head-and-shoulders above a deep, competitive field.

win5Shirley AnnML 5/1

Shirley Ann leads our model at 84.17 — more than 11 points clear of the next best — and posts the field's top average speed figure at 58, tied with Balright and Sweet Sissone but with a far higher overall rating. Trainer Clarke Vesty puts Joseph Bealmear up, and a 14% career win rate in a field this large is competitive. At 5/1 on the morning line in a 15-horse turf sprint, Shirley Ann looks like the best price on the best horse.

place6Beach HeistML 9/2

Beach Heist brings a 72.46 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 57 for trainer William Walden — the same barn that saddles Dantini in Race 7, keeping the operation hot. Axel Concepcion handles the assignment from the six-hole, a manageable post in a large turf field. A 20% career win rate shows Beach Heist converts when right, and the 9/2 morning line gives solid exacta value behind our top pick.

show7MackinacML 7/2

Mackinac slots third in our model at 72.01 with Luis Saez picking up the mount for trainer George R. Arnold II. A 20% career win rate and average speed of 55 are respectable, though the 7/2 morning line will likely compress in a field this size. The key angle here is Saez's tactical ability to find the right spot in a crowded turf sprint — he's won plenty of these navigating traffic.

Race 9

8:54 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Funny Uncle is the standout in this starter allowance field and the TrackWiz model is emphatic about it — but Spirit of a Walkon and Rugged Love set up a strong secondary battle that should generate value in the exotics.

win4Funny UncleML 5/2

Funny Uncle tops the starter allowance field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse in Race 9 — and Jose L. Ortiz rides for Joe Sharp, who has had a banner card on this afternoon. The average speed of 55 leads the field, and while a 10% career win rate might raise eyebrows, the class of the rating and the quality of connections suggest this horse has simply been running in tough spots. At 5/2 on the morning line, Funny Uncle is the most logical single on the back half of the card.

place8Spirit of a WalkonML 7/2

Spirit of a Walkon is a fascinating place contender with a 79.31 TrackWiz rating and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. for Dale Romans — a locally based trainer who thrives in starter conditions. An 18% career win rate and average speed of 53 make this a consistent, honest runner who finds the board with regularity. At 7/2 on the morning line, Spirit of a Walkon gives your exacta a strong anchor in the second slot.

show10Rugged LoveML 6/1

Rugged Love rounds out the ticket with a 71.36 TrackWiz rating and Tyler Gaffalione for Brendan Walsh, fresh off a successful ride earlier in the card. A 33% career win rate is the highest of any horse in Race 9 — this runner has a genuine knack for converting when given the opportunity. At 6/1 on the morning line, Rugged Love is the show play with the most upside.

Race 10

9:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

The finale is a long-distance turf test at 1 3/8 miles — a marathon that rewards stamina and tactical pace sense — and Proven Advocate emerges as our top-rated overlay in a wide-open Allowance Optional Claiming field.

win6Proven AdvocateML 12/1

Proven Advocate tops our TrackWiz model in Race 10 at 73.96 despite going off at 12/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect between public opinion and our analysis. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount for trainer Jayde Gelner, and a 17% career win rate with an average speed of 55 shows this horse is competitive at the right level. At 1 3/8 miles on the turf, pace tends to compress late and the best-rated stayer often gets there — Proven Advocate is that horse tonight.

place10TelescopicML 3/1

Telescopic is the public's second choice at 3/1 and earns the place spot with a 69.19 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Victoria Oliver sends Axel Concepcion out, and an 11% career win rate with an average speed of 54 are solid benchmarks for a route on the turf. The distance of 1 3/8 miles will test every horse in the field, and Telescopic's steady profile makes a place finish a reasonable expectation.

show4GrovelandML 10/1

Groveland is an intriguing show selection at 10/1 morning line with a 61.15 TrackWiz rating, posting the field's highest career win rate among our top three at 23%. Francisco Arrieta rides for Eddie Kenneally — a trainer who specializes in finding spots where his horses can fire — and an average speed of 54 is consistent for this class. The generous odds and solid win percentage make Groveland a trifecta inclusion worth the ticket space.

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A clean, clear day at Churchill Downs with 10 races and genuine opportunities scattered throughout the card. Our top free plays are She's Our Girl (Race 2), That's Fire (Race 3), and Flaming Verdict (Race 1). For the full-card breakdown — including Cromwell, the exotic sequences, and all seven premium races — subscribers have everything they need waiting inside TrackWiz. Good luck at the windows today.

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