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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 26, 2026

September 26, 202611 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Churchill Downs — partly cloudy skies, 70°F, and not a drop of rain in sight. That kind of weather is a gift for bettors: no scramble to figure out who handles off-track conditions, no last-minute surface changes, just clean, fast racing under the Twin Spires.

Today's 11-race card has something for everyone. We open with a trio of lower-level dirt sprints before things escalate quickly — turf routes, maiden special weight races, and three stakes events in the back half of the card. Races 8 through 10 are where the serious money lands, and our TrackWiz ratings point to Chunk of Gold (Race 10) as the highest-rated top pick on the entire card at 88.54.

Three races are open to all readers today. The rest of the full-card breakdown — including those three stakes races — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Whether you're here for a casual Saturday play or looking to construct multi-race exotics, we've got you covered.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite looks vulnerable and the TrackWiz model has unearthed a clear top-rated horse at a juicy price — pace could be contested with several speed types in the field.

win7Lexi's MelodyML 5/1

Lexi's Melody (7) is the standout on TrackWiz ratings, posting an 84.17 — the highest mark in this field by a comfortable margin. Luis Saez picks up the mount, and any time a rider of his caliber slides onto a horse in a 6.5-furlong claiming sprint at 5/1, you pay attention. Her 11% career win rate is respectable for this level, and the combination of elite rating and live jockey makes her our top selection.

place8She's Gotta GoML 8/1

She's Gotta Go (8) brings a solid 65.52 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win percentage that suggests she fires consistently. Cristian Torres keeps things simple up top in a sprint, and at 8/1 on the morning line she represents real value in the exacta underneath Lexi's Melody.

show5ClickML 12/1

Click (5) is an interesting inclusion at 12/1 despite owning the second-highest rating in the field at 65.18. The average speed figure of 55 is the best in the race, which could matter if she gets a clean trip from post five. At those odds she's a strong exotics play for the trifecta.

Race 2

5:16 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite doesn't hold up to scrutiny when you dig into the TrackWiz ratings — this Starter Allowance has a compelling pace setup and a legitimate longshot case lurking behind the chalk.

win5Show TimeML 2/1

Show Time (5) leads this field with an 86.01 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the competition — and carries a career win rate of 33%, which is genuinely strong at any level. Rafael Bejarano has the experience to manage pace in a 6-furlong dirt sprint, and trainer David Jacobson also saddles Margin of Air, showing he's confident enough in this race to double up. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, but the underlying numbers say it's deserved.

place2Defending AlbertML 8/1

Defending Albert (2) is a fascinating overlay at 8/1. His TrackWiz rating of 79.79 is second in the field — only 6 points behind the top pick — yet the morning line buries him near the bottom of the board. A 38% career win rate screams quality, and Francisco Arrieta is a capable partner in a short sprint. If Show Time gets into a pace duel, Defending Albert could be the one to catch him.

show4Cool CowboyML 10/1

Cool Cowboy (4) checks in with a 72.44 rating and draws Luis Saez, one of the better riders on the Churchill circuit. The 10/1 morning line is generous for a horse with a 23% career win rate that suggests he hits the board far more often than he wins. He's a strong trifecta piece and worth a place flier.

Race 3

5:46 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers are notoriously tricky — no one in this field has ever visited the winner's circle — but one horse separates himself from the pack on TrackWiz ratings in a way that's hard to ignore.

win6TelecasterML 4/1

Telecaster (6) posts an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, which towers over the rest of this maiden field — nearly 30 points clear of the next contender. He comes in with an average speed figure of 55, matching Roman Rogue for the best in the field, and William Antongeorgi III is a capable pilot who knows this course. In a maiden race where past form is thin, raw ratings carry extra weight, and Telecaster's number is hard to fade.

place8Task Force OML 5/2

Task Force O (8) brings a 57.50 rating and that 53 average speed figure, giving him legitimate late-running credentials for trainer Dale Romans — a horseman who rarely shows up at Churchill without a live one. The 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects him, and he's a logical place horse if Telecaster breaks on top and goes wire to wire.

show4Roman RogueML 3/1

Roman Rogue (4) at 3/1 is an intriguing show play. Trainer Dallas Stewart's operation tends to be live when pointing to Churchill, and Roman Rogue's 55 average speed figure ties Telecaster for the field's best. If the pace gets hot up front, a closer profile in the 56-furlong sprint sets up nicely for a piece of the exotics.

Our three free previews today cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — all dirt sprints that set the tone for the afternoon. In a claiming sprint to kick things off, Lexi's Melody (5/1 morning line) grades out as our top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17, offering real value at a price that suggests the public may be underestimating her. Race 2 brings a Starter Allowance field where Show Time is installed as the morning line favorite at 2/1 — and our 86.01 rating backs up that confidence. Then in Race 3's maiden claiming sprint, Telecaster at 4/1 rates as a solid overlay at 85.62.

One theme connecting these early races: on a dry, fast Churchill dirt surface at sprint distances, early pace tends to be rewarded. Keep an eye on how the first few races play out — if pace is getting an edge today, it could be a key angle to press in the premium races later on the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:18 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A tight turf sprint allowance where the favorite is a standout on name and connections but the TrackWiz model favors an overlay — this 5.5-furlong turf dash could reward bettors willing to go against the chalk.

win7Zap d'EtatML 6/1

Zap d'Etat (7) rates as our top pick at 81.26 on the TrackWiz model, outpacing the heavily-backed Eva Ready by more than four points. Short turf sprints at Churchill often come down to tactical quickness, and an average speed of 56 gives this horse enough raw punch to be dangerous. Fernando De La Cruz gets the call, and at 6/1 on the morning line this is the kind of overlay that makes exotics worthwhile.

place2Cinister CixML 4/1

Cinister Cix (2) rates just below our top pick at 78.37, and Luis Saez is a significant upgrade in connections for any horse he rides. The 56 average speed figure matches several in the field, but Saez's ability to find a spot on a turf sprint and save ground sets this horse up as the most likely place finisher if Zap d'Etat gets the win.

show4Eva ReadyML 7/5

Eva Ready (4) is the public's choice at 7/5, trained by Chad Brown — who is among the elite turf conditioners in the country — and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. The TrackWiz rating of 76.64 is third in the field, and a 33% career win rate is solid. Even at short odds, she earns a spot in show parlays given the connections alone.

Race 5

6:49 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 11-horse maiden special weight field over 7.5 furlongs where blue-blood trainers and elite jockeys collide — first-time starters and lightly-raced types make this one of the hardest races on the card to fully solve.

win2StaunchML 2/1

Staunch (2) leads the TrackWiz ratings for this race at 58.33 and carries the confidence of trainer Brendan Walsh, who books Tyler Gaffalione — one of the top riders in the country. The 55 average speed figure ties several rivals, but the combination of top-tier trainer, elite jockey, and a manageable 2/1 morning line puts Staunch on top of our card. Walsh is excellent with lightly-raced types, and 7.5 furlongs gives Staunch the distance to run into his best.

place10RiccelliML 4/1

Riccelli (10) draws the eye immediately — Bob Baffert doesn't ship horses to Churchill without strong intentions, and Francisco Arrieta handles the mount. The 55 average speed figure is on par with the field leaders, and the 4/1 morning line feels fair. In a large maiden field this deep, Baffert's runners have a way of finishing in the money even when they don't win outright.

show3FiestabowlforemikeML 9/2

Fiestabowlforemike (3) — yes, that's the name on the program — checks in with a 54.17 rating and a matching 55 average speed figure. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman sends him out at 9/2, and Jaime Torres is a solid partner for a maiden going two turns. In an 11-horse field, having a horse with this kind of middle-tier firepower at fair odds is worth a show bet or trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

7:21 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A fillies and mares allowance routing over a mile and a sixteenth where the morning-line favorite doesn't match up on ratings — the TrackWiz model sees significant value sitting at mid-range odds.

win6PassionfruitML 7/2

Passionfruit (6) is our top selection with an 80.80 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this seven-horse allowance field. Trainer Peter Eurton does excellent work routing on dirt, and the 33% career win rate tells you this filly knows how to finish the job. At 7/2 on the morning line she's not a huge overlay, but the model edges her clearly ahead of the well-backed Couplet, making her our best bet in this race.

place1Lady LawML 6/1

Lady Law (1) brings a 73.26 rating — second best in the field — and Luan Machado keeps the ride for trainer W. Bret Calhoun. At 6/1 she represents real value in the exacta. A 11% career win rate in a routing scenario might not scream dominance, but the rating strongly suggests she consistently competes at this level and makes plenty of top-three finishes.

show2Angel BellaML 8/1

Angel Bella (2) at 8/1 is a sneaky exotics play with a 68.68 TrackWiz rating that puts her third in the field. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman points her right back to Churchill, where the form lines look workable. The 14% career win rate in a routing context adds to her appeal as a trifecta piece behind our top two selections.

Race 7

7:54 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An 11-horse turf mile allowance that's full of short-form horses and wild card overlays — several runners show 50% or even 100% career win rates in small samples, making pace and post position crucial factors.

win6New PurposeML 9/5

New Purpose (6) comes in as the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field at 58.67, trained by the highly regarded Brad Cox and ridden by Luan Machado. The 9/5 morning line reflects public confidence, and a 100% career win rate — however small the sample — shows this horse has not run a bad race. Cox is an elite turf conditioner at Churchill Downs, and a one-mile trip on the grass is right in New Purpose's wheelhouse.

place3NymiraML 7/2

Nymira (3) draws Tyler Gaffalione — always an upgrade — and also sports a 100% career win rate for trainer Riley Mott. The 55.83 TrackWiz rating is second in the field, and at 7/2 she offers legitimate place value behind our top pick. In a turf mile, Gaffalione's tactical awareness is a real asset when navigating an 11-horse field.

show10Donie MaronieML 8/1

Donie Maronie (10) is a value-oriented show play at 8/1, trained by the respected Mark Casse operation. The 50% career win rate and 48.33 rating make this horse worth including in trifecta tickets, and Francisco Arrieta gives him a solid chance to find a place finish if the pace scenario sets up for a closer. At those odds, the risk-reward on a show bet makes sense.

Race 8

8:26 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A stakes showdown where two horses separate themselves from the rest of the field on TrackWiz ratings — this looks like a match race at the top, with the rest of the field fighting for scraps.

win1PlutarchML 5/2

Plutarch (1) tops the TrackWiz model at 87.81 — the highest-rated horse on the entire day's card for this race — and trainer Bob Baffert rarely ships without a live animal. Francisco Arrieta gets the call, and at 5/2 Plutarch is a deserving favorite despite the slight discount the public is giving to stablemate-in-spirit Stimulate. A 33% career win rate in stakes company is genuinely solid, and the 54 average speed figure checks out for 1 1/16 miles on dirt.

place5StimulateML 9/5

Stimulate (5) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 — and honestly, you can make a case for reversing our top two — but the TrackWiz model edges Plutarch by five points. What Stimulate does bring is a standout 66% career win rate, the best in this field, paired with Luis Saez and the Mott barn. This is a horse that hits the board almost every time he runs, making him a near-lock for the place spot in this six-horse stakes.

show6Local KnowledgeML 3/1

Local Knowledge (6) gives the Todd Pletcher operation a representative at 3/1, and a 50% career win rate with the best average speed figure in the field at 56 makes him dangerous. He's the only other horse in this race that looks capable of mixing it with the top two if either stumbles, and Jaime Torres is a reliable partner for a horse that needs to be placed just right in a modest field.

Race 9

8:58 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

Three horses bunch tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this one-mile stakes, setting up a competitive finish — but a clear pace shape and one horse's exceptional career record make this slightly less of a coin flip than it appears.

win8Nu What's NewML 3/1

Nu What's New (8) leads our model at 87.08 and carries a 40% career win rate — very strong in stakes company. Luis Saez is one of the best closers in the business, and a one-mile dirt trip gives him exactly the kind of race he thrives in. Trainer James DiVito has this horse sharp, and at 3/1 on the morning line he's a fair price for the top-rated horse in a contested stakes field.

place3Owen AlmightyML 7/2

Owen Almighty (3) is a close second in the TrackWiz model at 83.91, trained by Brian Lynch and piloted by Francisco Arrieta. A 28% career win rate in open company tells you he's consistently competitive without quite getting to the winner's circle, which is exactly the profile of a reliable place horse. At 7/2 he offers solid exacta value underneath our top pick.

show4Bishops BayML 9/5

Bishops Bay (4) comes in with a 60% career win rate — the best in this field — and Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Brad Cox. The TrackWiz rating of 82.96 is a tick below our top two, but in a stakes race with this kind of firepower, third isn't a knock on a horse. Cox and Gaffalione in a Churchill stakes race is always a combination worth respecting in trifecta construction.

Race 10

9:29 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A seven-horse stakes at 1 1/8 miles where the morning line underestimates the top-rated horse — value seekers should note that the TrackWiz model's top pick comes in well below his morning-line fair value.

win7Chunk of GoldML 2/1

Chunk of Gold (7) leads the entire stakes card with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse across all three stakes today. Despite this, the morning line has him at 2/1, which is a fair price for the clear class of the field. Trainer Ethan West sends him out with Jaime Torres in the irons, and a 25% career win rate at the stakes level shows he's no stranger to competing at this altitude. At a mile and an eighth on dirt, he has the distance and the rating to stamp himself as the best bet of the day.

place5Original SinML 3/1

Original Sin (5) brings a 75.83 rating — second in the field — and a 40% career win rate that ranks among the best of any horse on today's full card. Brendan Walsh has him pointed right, and Ben Curtis is a savvy veteran at handling pace-dependent dirt routes. At 3/1, he's the most logical place finisher if Chunk of Gold runs his race.

show1This Is UscarML 8/1

This Is Uscar (1) is an 8/1 morning-line overlay worth targeting in the show spot. A 72.92 TrackWiz rating ranks third in this stakes field, and a 20% career win rate in graded company suggests he competes — he just doesn't always close the deal. Edgar Morales gets the assignment for trainer Jordan Blair, and in a race where the top two might battle each other into the stretch, This Is Uscar is the natural beneficiary.

Race 11

10:01 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

The finale is a long 1 3/8-mile turf marathon — a rare distance that demands genuine stamina — and the TrackWiz model finds two horses rated well above the field in a race where pace collapse is always a possibility.

win9HereforagoodtimeML 8/1

Hereforagoodtime (9) tops our model at 79.79 despite a 8/1 morning line that significantly undervalues the rating. Tyler Gaffalione pilots for the Brendan Walsh barn — Walsh is one of the best turf trainers in the country — and the 57 average speed figure is the second-best in the entire field. In a marathon turf route, Walsh's conditioning and Gaffalione's tactical savvy in a large field are matchless advantages that the morning line hasn't fully priced in.

place1Royal JusticeML 8/1

Royal Justice (1) checks in at 78.24 — just behind our top pick — and brings a career win rate of 42%, the highest of any horse in this 10-horse field. Fernando De La Cruz handles the mount for trainer Aaron West, and at 8/1 the morning line offers genuine overlay value. A horse winning 42% of his starts knows how to compete, and the 54 average speed figure is workable for this kind of distance.

show2Daisy FlyerML 9/2

Daisy Flyer (2) rates third in the field at 60.07 with Cristian Torres up for trainer George Arnold. The 55 average speed figure is solid for a 1 3/8-mile turf grind, and the 20% career win rate in longer routes suggests she has the stamina profile to be competitive late. At 9/2 she's fairly priced and makes for a sound trifecta inclusion behind our top two.

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Bottom line: today's Churchill Downs card delivers real betting opportunities from first race to last. Start with our free looks at Lexi's Melody, Show Time, and Telecaster in the early sprints, then let the full-card analysis guide you through a stakes-loaded afternoon. Chunk of Gold headlines the day as our top-rated pick overall — but the complete picture, including pace scenarios and exotic ticket construction, is all inside for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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