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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 25, 2026

September 25, 202610 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

Churchill Downs is open for business on a picture-perfect Friday, with clear skies and a comfortable 70°F making for ideal racing conditions. When the weather cooperates like this at the historic Louisville oval, you can generally trust the track to play honest — no rain-softened surface to throw curveballs at your picks, no swirling wind to disrupt turf routes. Ten races are on the board, and TrackWiz has combed through every angle.

Today's card is a nice mix of surfaces and conditions: seven races hit the main dirt track, while the turf course gets three outings of its own. You've got claiming sprints, a pair of maiden events, starter allowances, and a straight allowance to cap the turf action in Race 9. Something for every style of bettor — whether you're grinding exactas in the early cheap claimers or hunting overlays in the allowance ranks.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today. The rest of the card — including our full pace projections, exotic ticket structures, and longshot angles — is waiting for subscribers. Let's set the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A claiming mile-and-sixteenth on dirt with a clear top figure, but the morning line favorite carries a puzzlingly low career win percentage — so there's room for the second and third choices to complicate things.

win1Wits and WagersML 7/5

Wits and Wagers carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 89.42, a significant gap over the next-best Mint Driven at 71.61. Trainer Lon Wiggins sends him out with Cristian Torres in the irons at the 7/5 morning line, and the model backs up that favoritism emphatically. The career win rate of 6% is a flag worth noting, but figure-wise, nothing in this field comes close to threatening him on paper.

place6Mint DrivenML 5/2

Mint Driven (5/2 ML) brings a TrackWiz rating of 71.61 and an average speed figure of 53 — solid and consistent for a claiming field at this distance. Trainer Barry King sends him out with Walter Rodriguez aboard, a workmanlike combination that typically doesn't get caught sleeping. If Wits and Wagers hits any trouble at all, Mint Driven is the most likely beneficiary.

show3Flirtin AgainML 3/1

Flirtin Again is the most intriguing third option here, posting the field's best average speed figure at 54 while carrying a 13% career win rate — not flashy, but above average for this level. The 3/1 morning line from trainer Sarah Shaffer with Bealmear up suggests connections believe she's live. In a field this thin up top, she's a reasonable exotic anchor at a fair price.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The morning-line favorite doesn't own the top TrackWiz figure in this turf sprint — that distinction belongs to a mid-price runner — making this a rare spot where the form book and the tote board may point in different directions.

win6Twirling ClaireML 6/1

Twirling Claire tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and posts an average speed figure of 58 — the second-best in the field — while going off at 6/1 on the morning line, which represents genuine overlay territory. Luis Saez picks up the mount for trainer Gregory Foley, and that's a pairing that commands attention in any turf sprint at Churchill. A 14% career win rate sounds modest, but the figure edge here is real and the price makes her the standout value play of the race.

place3Heads in BedsML 3/1

Heads in Beds owns the best average speed figure in the field at 59 and a 33% career win rate — legitimately elite numbers for a starter allowance. At 3/1 with Danny Sheehy in the irons for Chris Hartman, this horse profiles as the most likely winner on raw ability alone, and finishing second would be no surprise either. The only reason she's a place pick and not the top choice is Twirling Claire's overlay price at 6/1.

show2Alta AvenueML 6/5

Alta Avenue is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 with Tyler Gaffalione — one of Churchill's premier pilots — but a 21% career win rate and a rating of 70.85 leave her a tick below the top two. She's worth including in the show slot of your exotics because Gaffalione rarely lets a short price run completely flat, and consistency is her calling card.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claimer where the morning-line favorite is NOT the top figure horse — Poppy Woppy's 88.83 rating dwarfs the field, setting up a potential wire-to-wire performance if the pace scenario cooperates.

win6Poppy WoppyML 9/5

Poppy Woppy holds an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — a massive 9+ point edge over Transatlantic in second place — and matches the field's highest average speed figure at 55. Trainer Coty Rosin sends out Yedsit Hazlewood, and the 9/5 morning line reflects legitimate respect from the morning-line maker. In a six-furlong dirt claimer, a figure advantage this wide is about as close to a lock as handicapping gets, though racing always has its say.

place1TransatlanticML 9/2

Transatlantic is the class of the rest at a 79.33 rating, and the Tyler Gaffalione booking for trainer Kinnon LaRose is a meaningful upgrade. A 25% career win rate is strong for this level, and an average speed figure of 54 suggests he fires consistently. At 9/2, he's a solid value play to finish second behind the top selection.

show4TiziannaML 4/1

Tizianna checks in with the field's best average speed figure at 55 and a TrackWiz rating of 65.91, which puts her third overall in the field. The 4/1 morning line feels fair for a horse that runs to her figures with regularity, and Edgar Morales provides steady hands for trainer Helen Pitts. She rounds out the trifecta nicely as an honest price.

The free portion of today's card gives you a solid cross-section to work with. Race 1 sends us right to the dirt with Wits and Wagers (morning line 7/5, TrackWiz rating 89.42) going a route of ground in a claiming field — our top-rated horse on the card among the free picks and a horse we feel comfortable anchoring a ticket around. In Race 2, we jump to the turf for a 5½-furlong starter allowance where Twirling Claire (6/1 ML, rating 82.71) offers legitimate upside at a price the morning line respects but doesn't overbet. And Race 3 brings us back to the dirt for a 6-furlong claiming sprint where Poppy Woppy (9/5 ML, rating 88.83) projects as a hard horse to catch if the pace sets up the way we expect.

One thread connecting all three free plays: with the track dry and weather neutral, early speed figures should hold up well on the main surface today. Horses that can settle near the front without burning themselves up — or closers with enough kick to overcome a length or two — are the profiles we've been gravitating toward. Keep that in mind as you build your approach for the full card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden claiming sprint on dirt — always a chaotic affair — but one horse jumps off the page with a TrackWiz rating more than 12 points clear of the field, turning this into a figure-versus-price puzzle.

win5DontworryboutnothnML 6/1

Dontworryboutnothn (No. 5) posts an 82.71 TrackWiz rating at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a significant underlay alert in a wide-open maiden field where the top figure horse usually warrants shorter odds. Trainer David Jacobson is well-regarded at this level, and Yedsit Hazlewood's mount gives connections an experienced hand in a maiden race. An average speed figure of 55 ties several horses but the overall rating gap is the story here.

place7Gadget PlayML 5/1

Gadget Play is second in the ratings at 70.05 and draws Luis Saez — one of the meet's top jockeys — from the Albert Stall barn, a stable that consistently produces well-prepped first-level horses. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's value in his place ticket, and a 54 average speed figure is respectable. In a maiden claimer, getting Saez at this price is worth the investment.

show10Quentin BML 7/2

Quentin B slots in at program number 10 with a 55.83 rating — third in the field — and posts a 55 average speed figure for Dale Romans, one of the more reliable trainers in this jurisdiction. Martin Garcia gets the call at 7/2, and while maiden claimers are notoriously unpredictable, Romans runners tend to run their number. He's the logical show anchor for exotic players.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

One horse dominates this starter allowance field so thoroughly that the real betting question isn't who wins — it's which of the legitimate contenders gets second money behind a near-standout.

win4Air of DefianceML EVN

Air of Defiance enters at even money on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 90.0 — the highest in today's race — backed by a 36% career win rate that is simply elite for this condition. Francisco Arrieta gets the call for trainer S. Jade Cunningham, and the 56 average speed figure ties the field's best. When a horse checks all three boxes — top rating, top win percentage, top figure — you play it and move on.

place6PrayforpeaceML 6/1

Prayforpeace rates second in the field at 73.47 and shares that elite 56 average speed figure with Air of Defiance, which tells you this horse genuinely competes at a similar raw pace level. Mitchell Murrill and trainer Chris Hartman form a reliable tandem at Churchill, and a 21% career win rate shows she knows how to get to the wire. At 6/1, her place ticket may be the best value on the card.

show5Saltwater CowboyML 4/1

Saltwater Cowboy brings a 25% career win rate to the table for trainer Carlos David with Luis Saez up, and a 64.73 rating places him solidly third in the field. The 4/1 price is fair for a horse of his profile, and Saez doesn't often let a quality runner run below his ceiling. A pace duel up front between the top two would set this closer up perfectly.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A seven-furlong dirt claimer where the morning-line second choice owns the best figure in the field, suggesting the tote board may have the race slightly sideways — sharp money could reshape the odds significantly by post time.

win6Tiffany TwistML 2/1

Tiffany Twist heads into this race with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — comfortably clear of the field — and goes postward at 2/1 on the morning line with Jaime Torres up for Carlos Santamaria. The 14% career win rate is modest, but the figure edge is real, and a horse with a 53 average speed figure in a seven-furlong claimer is exactly the type that controls her own destiny on the front end. At 2/1, she's not giving you much value, but the ratings strongly support her as the top selection.

place4Sweet NoteML 3/1

Sweet Note rates second in the field at 77.68 with a standout 31% career win rate — that kind of winning consistency is hard to ignore at any level. Tyler Gaffalione, one of the Churchill meet leaders in wins, guides her for trainer Kinnon LaRose, and the 3/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse this reliable. She's the type who finds a way to get a piece.

show5Dozen DiamondsML 8/1

Dozen Diamonds is an interesting show value at 8/1 on the morning line with a 66.36 rating — third in the field — for Danny Sheehy and the Chris Hartman stable, which we've seen firing on multiple races today. A 16% career win rate in a claiming field is respectable, and at 8/1, she adds significant upside to exacta and trifecta combinations without much outlay.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling thirteen-horse maiden special weight on the turf at a mile-and-sixteenth — one of the tougher reads on the card with a wide range of figures and several horses lacking published speed data — but our top figure horse comes in at a reasonable price.

win11Just DanceML 7/2

Just Dance (No. 11) leads our ratings at 55.83 in a field where separation at the top is slim, and Francisco Arrieta picks up the mount for trainer Eddie Kenneally — a horseman with a strong record developing turf horses at this level. The 7/2 morning line is a fair reflection of her profile, and a 51 average speed figure, while not explosive, is the best published number among horses with available data. In a wide-open maiden turf field, taking the top figure at a fair price is the disciplined play.

place8Anywhere With YouML 9/2

Anywhere With You (No. 8) rates 54.17 and draws Tyler Gaffalione — who's had a busy and productive day on this card — from the Brendan Walsh barn, which is one of the premier turf outfits in North American racing. Walsh horses in maiden turf routes at Churchill tend to run creditably even first or second out, and the 9/2 morning line gives you a touch of value. She's the place pick on trainer pedigree as much as raw figures.

show4QdoroML 6/1

Qdoro (No. 4) comes out of the Brad Cox barn — one of the most accomplished turf trainers operating today — with Axel Concepcion up and a 51.67 rating at 6/1. Cox doesn't waste entries in maiden routes, and the price makes her a legitimate exotic anchor. Without published speed data, there's inherent risk, but the barn alone warrants inclusion in your show tickets.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse starter allowance sprint on dirt where the morning-line second choice owns the top TrackWiz figure by a notable margin — making Q's Your Mama a legitimate overlay worth playing aggressively.

win5Q's Your MamaML 9/2

Q's Your Mama enters as our top selection with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating — more than nine points clear of Sassy Princess in second — and backs it up with a field-best 31% career win rate. Luis Saez is aboard for trainer Nolan Ramsey, and the 9/2 morning line significantly underestimates this horse given her numbers. An average speed figure of 55 matches the field's top mark, and Saez at that price in a six-furlong dirt spot is a situation you want to be on the right side of.

place3Sassy PrincessML 5/2

Sassy Princess rates 75.58 for Tyler Gaffalione and trainer David Jacobson — a pairing that's appeared multiple times today, indicating stable confidence in the card. A 28% career win rate is the second-best in the field, and the 5/2 morning line reflects her genuine shot at winning outright. She's the likeliest alternative if Q's Your Mama runs into any trouble.

show2TizntshelovelyML 7/2

Tizntshelovely rates 72.76 for Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. — one of Churchill's all-time great riders — out of the Dallas Stewart barn, which consistently outperforms expectations at this level. The 15% career win rate is modest but the 7/2 morning line and solid 55 average speed figure make her a legitimate show option. In a starter allowance, horses from Stewart's barn rarely embarrass themselves.

Race 9

8:54 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An allowance field on turf at a mile-and-sixteenth where two horses — Banksy's and Go Grey — separate from the rest of the field in our ratings, setting up a potential match race at the top with the rest playing for show.

win1Banksy'sML 4/1

Banksy's carries an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the field's top mark — and a 25% career win rate for trainer David Fawkes with Tyler Gaffalione, who's had an impressive book of rides throughout today's card. The 4/1 morning line offers genuine overlay value on a horse whose figures are clearly superior, and an average speed figure of 55 at a mile-and-sixteenth on turf suggests he can handle the distance. Gaffalione at 4/1 in an allowance turf route is a spot that demands action.

place5Go GreyML 5/2

Go Grey is right on Banksy's heels at 82.29, posted by the Michael Maker barn with Walter Rodriguez up — Maker is one of the country's elite turf trainers, and a 28% career win rate is the best among all eight horses in the field. The 5/2 morning line is shorter than our top pick, which creates an interesting dynamic: if you believe the rating edge holds, Banksy's win and Go Grey place is the play. Either way, Go Grey belongs in your exotics.

show3Royal CausewayML 4/1

Royal Causeway rates 57.2 for Cristian Torres and Dallas Stewart — notably, Stewart also saddles Corona de Oro, so the barn is doubling up in this spot, a pattern worth watching at the windows. A 16% career win rate and average speed figure of 54 make him competitive at the bottom of the ticket, and 4/1 on the morning line is a fair price for a show bet in an allowance field.

Race 10

9:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sixteen horses in a maiden claiming sprint on dirt to close out the card — a chaotic nightcap that will test your patience, but one horse stands well above the pack in our ratings at a price that demands attention.

win6Domina d'OroML 9/2

Domina d'Oro (No. 6) leads the entire sixteen-horse field with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating — more than 14 points clear of the next-best Dizzy Miss Lizzy — and posts a solid 54 average speed figure going 9/2 on the morning line. William Antongeorgi III picks up the mount for trainer William Morey, and in a maiden claimer, a figure edge this wide is often enough to carry the day. With zero career wins across the field, every horse is chasing maiden-breaking money, but this one's numbers make her the logical target.

place12Dizzy Miss LizzyML 8/1

Dizzy Miss Lizzy rates second in the field at 70.17 — a meaningful number in a wide-open maiden claimer — with Walter Rodriguez up for trainer Christopher Davis. The 8/1 morning line gives you substantial place value on a horse with a legitimate figure, and a 54 average speed figure is consistent with horses who punch their ticket at this level. Rodriguez is a professional who rarely wastes a trip, and Dizzy Miss Lizzy should fire a competitive race.

show11Crystal FrostML 12/1

Crystal Frost comes in at 57.34 on our ratings for the Rafael Bejarano–Roddina Barrett combination, and the 12/1 morning line is where longshot value meets legitimate figure in a big field. A 54 average speed figure gives her raw pace credibility in a sprint, and in a field this size, pace meltdowns at the front open the door for closers. She's a speculative but defensible show play to cap the card.

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Bottom line: Churchill Downs has a clean, ten-race card laid out under ideal conditions today, and TrackWiz has angles on every single race. Start with Wits and Wagers, Twirling Claire, and Poppy Woppy — our three free best bets — and then let our premium analysis do the heavy lifting on Races 4 through 10. Full card breakdowns, pace scenarios, and exotic tickets are all waiting for subscribers. Check out our plans at TrackWiz Premium and get the complete picture before the first race goes off. Good luck out there — we'll see you in the winner's circle.

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