Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 25, 2026

Transatlantic is the class of the rest at a 79.33 rating, and the Tyler Gaffalione booking for trainer Kinnon LaRose is a meaningful upgrade. A 25% career win rate is strong for this level, and an average speed figure of 54 suggests he fires consistently. At 9/2, he's a solid value play to finish second behind the top selection.

Tizianna checks in with the field's best average speed figure at 55 and a TrackWiz rating of 65.91, which puts her third overall in the field. The 4/1 morning line feels fair for a horse that runs to her figures with regularity, and Edgar Morales provides steady hands for trainer Helen Pitts. She rounds out the trifecta nicely as an honest price.

Gadget Play is second in the ratings at 70.05 and draws Luis Saez — one of the meet's top jockeys — from the Albert Stall barn, a stable that consistently produces well-prepped first-level horses. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's value in his place ticket, and a 54 average speed figure is respectable. In a maiden claimer, getting Saez at this price is worth the investment.

Quentin B slots in at program number 10 with a 55.83 rating — third in the field — and posts a 55 average speed figure for Dale Romans, one of the more reliable trainers in this jurisdiction. Martin Garcia gets the call at 7/2, and while maiden claimers are notoriously unpredictable, Romans runners tend to run their number. He's the logical show anchor for exotic players.

Prayforpeace rates second in the field at 73.47 and shares that elite 56 average speed figure with Air of Defiance, which tells you this horse genuinely competes at a similar raw pace level. Mitchell Murrill and trainer Chris Hartman form a reliable tandem at Churchill, and a 21% career win rate shows she knows how to get to the wire. At 6/1, her place ticket may be the best value on the card.

Saltwater Cowboy brings a 25% career win rate to the table for trainer Carlos David with Luis Saez up, and a 64.73 rating places him solidly third in the field. The 4/1 price is fair for a horse of his profile, and Saez doesn't often let a quality runner run below his ceiling. A pace duel up front between the top two would set this closer up perfectly.

Sweet Note rates second in the field at 77.68 with a standout 31% career win rate — that kind of winning consistency is hard to ignore at any level. Tyler Gaffalione, one of the Churchill meet leaders in wins, guides her for trainer Kinnon LaRose, and the 3/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse this reliable. She's the type who finds a way to get a piece.

Dozen Diamonds is an interesting show value at 8/1 on the morning line with a 66.36 rating — third in the field — for Danny Sheehy and the Chris Hartman stable, which we've seen firing on multiple races today. A 16% career win rate in a claiming field is respectable, and at 8/1, she adds significant upside to exacta and trifecta combinations without much outlay.

Anywhere With You (No. 8) rates 54.17 and draws Tyler Gaffalione — who's had a busy and productive day on this card — from the Brendan Walsh barn, which is one of the premier turf outfits in North American racing. Walsh horses in maiden turf routes at Churchill tend to run creditably even first or second out, and the 9/2 morning line gives you a touch of value. She's the place pick on trainer pedigree as much as raw figures.

Qdoro (No. 4) comes out of the Brad Cox barn — one of the most accomplished turf trainers operating today — with Axel Concepcion up and a 51.67 rating at 6/1. Cox doesn't waste entries in maiden routes, and the price makes her a legitimate exotic anchor. Without published speed data, there's inherent risk, but the barn alone warrants inclusion in your show tickets.

Sassy Princess rates 75.58 for Tyler Gaffalione and trainer David Jacobson — a pairing that's appeared multiple times today, indicating stable confidence in the card. A 28% career win rate is the second-best in the field, and the 5/2 morning line reflects her genuine shot at winning outright. She's the likeliest alternative if Q's Your Mama runs into any trouble.

Tizntshelovely rates 72.76 for Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. — one of Churchill's all-time great riders — out of the Dallas Stewart barn, which consistently outperforms expectations at this level. The 15% career win rate is modest but the 7/2 morning line and solid 55 average speed figure make her a legitimate show option. In a starter allowance, horses from Stewart's barn rarely embarrass themselves.

Go Grey is right on Banksy's heels at 82.29, posted by the Michael Maker barn with Walter Rodriguez up — Maker is one of the country's elite turf trainers, and a 28% career win rate is the best among all eight horses in the field. The 5/2 morning line is shorter than our top pick, which creates an interesting dynamic: if you believe the rating edge holds, Banksy's win and Go Grey place is the play. Either way, Go Grey belongs in your exotics.

Royal Causeway rates 57.2 for Cristian Torres and Dallas Stewart — notably, Stewart also saddles Corona de Oro, so the barn is doubling up in this spot, a pattern worth watching at the windows. A 16% career win rate and average speed figure of 54 make him competitive at the bottom of the ticket, and 4/1 on the morning line is a fair price for a show bet in an allowance field.

Dizzy Miss Lizzy rates second in the field at 70.17 — a meaningful number in a wide-open maiden claimer — with Walter Rodriguez up for trainer Christopher Davis. The 8/1 morning line gives you substantial place value on a horse with a legitimate figure, and a 54 average speed figure is consistent with horses who punch their ticket at this level. Rodriguez is a professional who rarely wastes a trip, and Dizzy Miss Lizzy should fire a competitive race.

Crystal Frost comes in at 57.34 on our ratings for the Rafael Bejarano–Roddina Barrett combination, and the 12/1 morning line is where longshot value meets legitimate figure in a big field. A 54 average speed figure gives her raw pace credibility in a sprint, and in a field this size, pace meltdowns at the front open the door for closers. She's a speculative but defensible show play to cap the card.