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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 24, 2026

September 24, 20268 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

This card ran on September 24, 2026.

Best bets at Churchill Downs, September 24, 2026

Race 12Bullet BabyML 4/15:00 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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It's a beautiful Thursday at Churchill Downs — 73 degrees, partly cloudy, and the kind of afternoon that makes you want to be right there on Millionaires Row with a mint julep and a racing program. Eight races are on tap today, split across dirt and turf, and there's enough variety in the conditions to keep both the casual fan and the serious handicapper busy all day.

The turf is expected to be in solid shape, which matters a lot with three races going over the grass today, including an Allowance and an Allowance Optional Claiming that figure to draw some of the sharper horses on the card. Meanwhile, the dirt sprint races give us a cluster of claiming action that sets up nicely for pace-sensitive plays. Don't sleep on those — Churchill's dirt can favor early speed, and knowing who controls the fractions could be the difference between cashing and crumpling your tickets.

TrackWiz has broken down all eight races, with the first three available free to every reader. Races 4 through 8 are part of the full premium card — more on that below.

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Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A maiden claimer going two turns on the dirt where the morning line favorite looks vulnerable — TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story than the oddsmaker.

win2Bullet BabyML 4/1

Bullet Baby earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 75.71, well clear of the morning line favorite Flashy Aviator despite going off at 4/1. Trainer Robert W. Radcliffe sends her out with Rafael Bejarano in the irons — a jockey who knows how to rate a horse around two turns. Her avg speed figure of 52 is modest, but in a maiden claimer where the whole field is breaking their maiden, the rating edge matters more than the raw number. At 4/1, she represents real value over the favorite.

place3Betty WhoML 8/1

Betty Who at 8/1 on the morning line is a TrackWiz sleeper — her rating of 75.22 is essentially a dead heat with the top pick, yet she's priced as an afterthought by the oddsmakers. Luis A. Hernandez gets the call for trainer Ramon Salcedo, and her avg speed figure of 53 is the best in the field. If the chalk draws some heat on the front end, Betty Who could be sitting pretty for a big price.

show4Flashy AviatorML 9/5

Flashy Aviator is the morning line favorite at 9/5 with Luis Saez up, so she'll likely be underlaid at the windows — but her avg speed figure of 55, tied for tops in the field, gives her a legitimate shot to hit the board. Trainer Rohan G. Crichton has a live one on paper, and Saez rarely gets on a horse without a reason. She's our show pick but not our win pick because the TrackWiz rating of 58.67 lags behind both top selections.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

5:29 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short six-furlong maiden claimer on the dirt featuring a dominant TrackWiz top choice and a sneaky longshot angle that could blow the exacta wide open.

win6By La RinaML 9/5

By La Rina commands attention with a TrackWiz rating of 88.43 — the highest mark in this field by a wide margin — and she pairs that with the top avg speed figure of 56. Trainer Michael A. Tomlinson puts Axel Concepcion aboard, and at 9/5 on the morning line, she's priced like what she is: the class of this bunch. In a short sprint where pace can be relentless, having the best speed and the best rating is a strong combination. She's the right play.

place7Allison AvenueML 8/1

Allison Avenue earns a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second best in the race — and matches By La Rina's avg speed figure of 56. What's interesting here is that she's trained by Hall of Famer Steven M. Asmussen with his son Keith J. Asmussen in the irons, a family combo that has been known to fire when ready. At 8/1, she's priced like a throwout but our numbers say she belongs in the exacta. A classic value play underneath.

show2That's a BenjaminML 5/1

That's a Benjamin brings a respectable TrackWiz rating of 68.56 and has Luis Saez — one of the best in the business — guiding her from post 2. Trainer Norm W. Casse is sharp on the Churchill circuit and at 5/1, there's enough price here to justify a show ticket or a spot in the trifecta. Her avg speed of 54 is middle of the pack, but Saez has a way of finding another gear when it counts.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

The first three races give you a solid cross-section of what today's card is all about. Race 1 goes long on dirt — a Maiden Claiming route at 1 1/16 miles — where Bullet Baby at 4/1 morning line looks like a fair-priced contender with a TrackWiz rating of 75.71. Route maiden races are notoriously tricky, but there's a real pace angle here worth exploring in the full race breakdown. Race 2 tightens things up to a 6-furlong dirt sprint, and By La Rina comes in as the clear favorite at 9/5 with a strong 88.43 rating — one of the highest scores among the free picks. When a horse rates that highly and the morning line reflects the confidence, that's a sign the market and the data are telling the same story.

Race 3 moves us to the turf, and that's where things get especially interesting. Dagmara tops our Allowance field at 8/5 with an 89.12 rating — the highest of the three free plays. Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures are about as friendly as turf conditions get at Churchill, and Allowance fields tend to reward horses who know how to run on grass. If you're building a multi-race wager to start the day, these three races form a logical foundation.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A turf allowance at a mile and a sixteenth where two horses clearly separate themselves from the field, setting up what could be a thrilling stretch duel between the top-rated duo.

win5DagmaraML 8/5

Dagmara tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 and comes in with a 25% career win rate — respectable in allowance company. She's trained by Brad H. Cox, one of the premier conditioners in the country, with Luan Machado up. The 8/5 morning line reflects her status as the class of this field, and her ability to go 1 1/16 miles on turf under a top barn is the key angle. Cox horses at this level rarely show up without a plan.

place2Spin a TuneML 3/1

Spin a Tune is the most intriguing horse on the card — a 66% career win rate is extraordinary, and her TrackWiz rating of 86.31 confirms she belongs right with the top choice. Trainer Eoin G. Harty is a turf specialist who knows how to spot a horse, and Jaime A. Torres gets the leg up. At 3/1, the morning line is giving her some respect, but that win percentage should make her a cornerstone of any exotic ticket.

show6Struck At MidnightML 5/2

Struck At Midnight has a 28% career win rate — best of the lower-rated contenders — and Jose L. Ortiz is one of the most accomplished jockeys in the country. Trainer Joe Sharp is no stranger to placing horses in spots where they can perform, and at 5/2, she'll be popular at the windows. Her avg speed of 53 is a tick below the top two, which is why she slots into the show position, but in a small six-horse field she's a near-lock to hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

6:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming sprint with a hidden value horse sitting at a big price and a morning line choice whose unbeaten record deserves serious scrutiny.

win6Mr. FeteML 7/2

Mr. Fete earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 83.10 and is going off at 7/2 despite trainer John Ennis having him in good shape. Danny Sheehy gets the mount, and while the avg speed figure of 54 is middle of the pack, the rating advantage over most of this field is meaningful in a claiming sprint. His 25% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a race where the pace figures to be honest, a horse with top-end ratings tends to find the wire first.

place4MormoneytostartML 12/1

Mormoneytostart at 12/1 is our value bomb in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 that is second-best in the field, yet the oddsmakers are essentially ignoring him. Trainer Terry Burdess puts Francisco Arrieta up, and with a 33% career win rate, this horse knows how to finish. The price gap between his ability and his morning line odds is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis exists to identify. Play him underneath on all your exotics.

show2BoorayML 9/5

Booray has a 100% career win rate — undefeated — which sounds great until you realize it can mean a short, limited record. Trainer George Weaver and jockey Luis Saez are an elite combo, and at 9/5 he'll be heavily backed. The TrackWiz rating of 58.67 is a bit lower than you'd expect for the short-price favorite, which is why he sits third in our analysis rather than first. He should hit the board, but the price makes him a tough win bet.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

6:59 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A full field of maiden claimers going six panels on the dirt — several first-time starters in the mix make this a wide-open affair where trainer power becomes a key handicapping angle.

win2Magical MikelML 2/1

Magical Mikel is our top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 and an avg speed figure of 55, which is tops among horses in this field with published figures. Trainer Kenneth G. McPeek and jockey Emmanuel Esquivel is a combination that fires when the horses are ready, and the 2/1 morning line makes this one the book's choice as well. In maiden company, horses with actual speed figures hold a big edge over first-time starters, and Magical Mikel has shown he can run.

place3Nashville CowboyML 9/2

Nashville Cowboy checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 and an avg speed of 54 — solid numbers for this level. Jose L. Ortiz is one of the top jockeys in the country and trainer Randy L. Morse has him primed at 9/2. The place position is where he makes the most sense — he's not our top choice, but he's too talented to leave off the ticket and should be fighting for a spot in the top three at the wire.

show5BoraxML 5/1

Borax has Luis Saez — arguably the best dirt jockey in the game right now — and is trained by Steven M. Asmussen, who wins races at an elite clip year after year. The TrackWiz rating of 53.33 and avg speed of 53 aren't overwhelming, but the connections upgrade this horse well beyond what the raw numbers suggest. At 5/1, there's enough price to include him in trifectas, and Saez has a knack for getting horses into the money even when they're not the top choice.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

7:28 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A deep allowance optional claimer on the turf at 1 1/8 miles where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by less than a point — pick your spots carefully.

win2YinzerML 3/1

Yinzer gets the nod with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.42 and a 21% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness at a high level. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen puts his own son Keith J. Asmussen aboard — a family stable combination that has real chemistry. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's reasonably priced for an allowance optional claiming horse with top ratings on turf. The 1 1/8-mile distance on grass suits a horse with his profile.

place1Baby MaxML 9/2

Baby Max is essentially a coin flip with the top pick — a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 versus Yinzer's 85.42 is the definition of a photo finish on paper. Trainer Kelsey Danner sends him out with Tyler Gaffalione, a Churchill Downs ace who wins at a strong clip at this track. A 20% career win rate and an avg speed of 55 are both reliable benchmarks, and at 9/2, he's a touch longer than the morning line favorite — making him a compelling place bet and an exacta key.

show5Covert LawML 10/1

Covert Law at 10/1 is the longshot value in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 74.38 is third-best in the field and significantly outpaces his morning line price. Trainer John Alexander Ortiz has a 27% career win rate with this horse, and Axel Concepcion can steal ground on the turf. The 1 1/8-mile distance on grass could suit a closer who lets the speed figures sort themselves out up front before pouncing late. A live longshot for trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

7:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming race with a clear top two that are well above the rest of the field — the question isn't who's good, it's who gets there first.

win5Vital MindML 2/1

Vital Mind is the clear top choice with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54, the highest mark in this race, paired with a career win rate of 33% — excellent numbers for a claiming horse. Jose L. Ortiz gets the call under trainer Steven M. Asmussen, and that is as formidable a jockey-trainer pairing as you'll find on any card in North America. The 2/1 morning line reflects his chalk status, and with an avg speed of 55, he brings legitimate horsepower into the sprint.

place6Evan On EarthML 7/2

Evan On Earth is the natural backup with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — just three ticks below the top choice — and Luis Saez in the irons for trainer Gregory D. Foley. The 14% career win rate is the one caveat, but in a claiming race, finishing second or third pays the bills, and this horse has the raw figures to land on the board consistently. At 7/2, there's enough price to make him a must-use in your exacta underneath.

show7AtterseeML 3/1

Attersee brings a TrackWiz rating of 76.47 and draws Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Norm W. Casse — a sharp combination at Churchill Downs. His 18% career win rate and avg speed of 55 are consistent with a horse that competes every time out. At 3/1, he'll be popular with the public, and he deserves that attention — in a field where the top two are class standouts, Attersee looks like the logical next-best and a strong show anchor in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

8:26 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A full field Maiden Special Weight on the turf at a mile — 13 horses, several first-time starters, and a wide-open pace scenario make this the most unpredictable race on the card.

win8Take Charge BeachML 9/2

Take Charge Beach leads our TrackWiz ratings in this race at 68.23 and is managed by trainer Genaro Garcia with Edgar Morales aboard. The 9/2 morning line is a fair price given the chaos in a 13-horse maiden turf field, and his avg speed figure of 54 is among the better marks for horses with published figures in this field. In MSW turf races, experience and figures over first-time starters is always a core angle, and Take Charge Beach brings enough to the table to justify the top slot.

place2Automatic PressML 6/1

Automatic Press checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 58.12 and has Jose L. Ortiz — one of the best turf pilots in the country — in the irons for trainer Peter Miller, who is no stranger to placing horses in maiden turf spots. His avg speed of 55 is one of the better figures in the field, and at 6/1 he's priced attractively enough to anchor an exacta or trifecta. When Ortiz pops up at a mid-range price in a big maiden turf field, that's a combination worth respecting.

show12CircadianML 3/1

Circadian attracts attention at 3/1 on the morning line, and trainer Kinnon LaRose has Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. — a perennial Churchill Downs leader — in the saddle. His TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and avg speed of 53 are decent for this field, and the public's confidence in him at 3/1 in a 13-horse field suggests the barn is confident. He slots into our show position because the top two have stronger ratings, but the jockey-trainer confidence here is a factor you can't ignore.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

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Today at Churchill Downs, the three-race free card gives you strong footing with Dagmara and By La Rina standing out as the most confident plays of the morning. But the full-card story — pace matchups in the sprints, turf exotic angles, and five additional race breakdowns — is where the real edge lives. If you want everything TrackWiz has on this card, check out our subscription options and get the complete picture before post time. Good luck out there — and keep it fun.

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