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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 24, 2026
It's a beautiful Thursday at Churchill Downs — 73 degrees, partly cloudy, and the kind of afternoon that makes you want to be right there on Millionaires Row with a mint julep and a racing program. Eight races are on tap today, split across dirt and turf, and there's enough variety in the conditions to keep both the casual fan and the serious handicapper busy all day.
The turf is expected to be in solid shape, which matters a lot with three races going over the grass today, including an Allowance and an Allowance Optional Claiming that figure to draw some of the sharper horses on the card. Meanwhile, the dirt sprint races give us a cluster of claiming action that sets up nicely for pace-sensitive plays. Don't sleep on those — Churchill's dirt can favor early speed, and knowing who controls the fractions could be the difference between cashing and crumpling your tickets.
TrackWiz has broken down all eight races, with the first three available free to every reader. Races 4 through 8 are part of the full premium card — more on that below.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt
A maiden claimer going two turns on the dirt where the morning line favorite looks vulnerable — TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story than the oddsmaker.
Bullet Baby earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 75.71, well clear of the morning line favorite Flashy Aviator despite going off at 4/1. Trainer Robert W. Radcliffe sends her out with Rafael Bejarano in the irons — a jockey who knows how to rate a horse around two turns. Her avg speed figure of 52 is modest, but in a maiden claimer where the whole field is breaking their maiden, the rating edge matters more than the raw number. At 4/1, she represents real value over the favorite.
Betty Who at 8/1 on the morning line is a TrackWiz sleeper — her rating of 75.22 is essentially a dead heat with the top pick, yet she's priced as an afterthought by the oddsmakers. Luis A. Hernandez gets the call for trainer Ramon Salcedo, and her avg speed figure of 53 is the best in the field. If the chalk draws some heat on the front end, Betty Who could be sitting pretty for a big price.
Flashy Aviator is the morning line favorite at 9/5 with Luis Saez up, so she'll likely be underlaid at the windows — but her avg speed figure of 55, tied for tops in the field, gives her a legitimate shot to hit the board. Trainer Rohan G. Crichton has a live one on paper, and Saez rarely gets on a horse without a reason. She's our show pick but not our win pick because the TrackWiz rating of 58.67 lags behind both top selections.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A short six-furlong maiden claimer on the dirt featuring a dominant TrackWiz top choice and a sneaky longshot angle that could blow the exacta wide open.
By La Rina commands attention with a TrackWiz rating of 88.43 — the highest mark in this field by a wide margin — and she pairs that with the top avg speed figure of 56. Trainer Michael A. Tomlinson puts Axel Concepcion aboard, and at 9/5 on the morning line, she's priced like what she is: the class of this bunch. In a short sprint where pace can be relentless, having the best speed and the best rating is a strong combination. She's the right play.
Allison Avenue earns a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second best in the race — and matches By La Rina's avg speed figure of 56. What's interesting here is that she's trained by Hall of Famer Steven M. Asmussen with his son Keith J. Asmussen in the irons, a family combo that has been known to fire when ready. At 8/1, she's priced like a throwout but our numbers say she belongs in the exacta. A classic value play underneath.
That's a Benjamin brings a respectable TrackWiz rating of 68.56 and has Luis Saez — one of the best in the business — guiding her from post 2. Trainer Norm W. Casse is sharp on the Churchill circuit and at 5/1, there's enough price here to justify a show ticket or a spot in the trifecta. Her avg speed of 54 is middle of the pack, but Saez has a way of finding another gear when it counts.
Race 3
Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
A turf allowance at a mile and a sixteenth where two horses clearly separate themselves from the field, setting up what could be a thrilling stretch duel between the top-rated duo.
Dagmara tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 and comes in with a 25% career win rate — respectable in allowance company. She's trained by Brad H. Cox, one of the premier conditioners in the country, with Luan Machado up. The 8/5 morning line reflects her status as the class of this field, and her ability to go 1 1/16 miles on turf under a top barn is the key angle. Cox horses at this level rarely show up without a plan.
Spin a Tune is the most intriguing horse on the card — a 66% career win rate is extraordinary, and her TrackWiz rating of 86.31 confirms she belongs right with the top choice. Trainer Eoin G. Harty is a turf specialist who knows how to spot a horse, and Jaime A. Torres gets the leg up. At 3/1, the morning line is giving her some respect, but that win percentage should make her a cornerstone of any exotic ticket.
Struck At Midnight has a 28% career win rate — best of the lower-rated contenders — and Jose L. Ortiz is one of the most accomplished jockeys in the country. Trainer Joe Sharp is no stranger to placing horses in spots where they can perform, and at 5/2, she'll be popular at the windows. Her avg speed of 53 is a tick below the top two, which is why she slots into the show position, but in a small six-horse field she's a near-lock to hit the board.
The first three races give you a solid cross-section of what today's card is all about. Race 1 goes long on dirt — a Maiden Claiming route at 1 1/16 miles — where Bullet Baby at 4/1 morning line looks like a fair-priced contender with a TrackWiz rating of 75.71. Route maiden races are notoriously tricky, but there's a real pace angle here worth exploring in the full race breakdown. Race 2 tightens things up to a 6-furlong dirt sprint, and By La Rina comes in as the clear favorite at 9/5 with a strong 88.43 rating — one of the highest scores among the free picks. When a horse rates that highly and the morning line reflects the confidence, that's a sign the market and the data are telling the same story.
Race 3 moves us to the turf, and that's where things get especially interesting. Dagmara tops our Allowance field at 8/5 with an 89.12 rating — the highest of the three free plays. Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures are about as friendly as turf conditions get at Churchill, and Allowance fields tend to reward horses who know how to run on grass. If you're building a multi-race wager to start the day, these three races form a logical foundation.
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Today at Churchill Downs, the three-race free card gives you strong footing with Dagmara and By La Rina standing out as the most confident plays of the morning. But the full-card story — pace matchups in the sprints, turf exotic angles, and five additional race breakdowns — is where the real edge lives. If you want everything TrackWiz has on this card, check out our subscription options and get the complete picture before post time. Good luck out there — and keep it fun.