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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026

September 23, 20269 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

Rain is falling at Churchill Downs this Wednesday, and that changes everything. With temperatures sitting at 68°F and the dirt taking on moisture all morning, today's 9-race card is shaping up to be a pace handicapper's puzzle — soft footing tends to compress speed figures, shift the advantage toward closers, and turn "safe" favorites into live longshot tickets.

Nine races spread across maiden claiming, claiming, allowance, and maiden special weight conditions give us a full menu to work through. The bulk of the card goes six furlongs on a wet main track — that sprint distance on off going is where pace scenarios get interesting fast. We've got three free previews unlocked for every reader today, plus six premium breakdowns for subscribers ready to dig deeper.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where two Joe Sharp trainees split the market and our top-rated horse wears the chalk — but there's a sneaky value angle at 8/1 that could complicate the exacta.

win2Problem SolvedML 9/5

Problem Solved is the standout on our ratings with an 88.83 — the highest mark in the field by a comfortable margin. The Steven Asmussen barn knows how to debut winners, and having Erik Asmussen in the irons keeps this a family operation with clear intent. At 9/5 on the morning line, the market agrees, and with an average speed figure of 55 against a field where most rivals check in at 53-54, there's genuine separation here. Lean on this one as your win single.

place5My King AirML 7/5

My King Air draws the co-favorite billing at 7/5 for the other Joe Sharp entry, and Sharp is a trainer worth respecting in maiden company on the Churchill dirt. The TrackWiz rating of 64.74 is solidly third in this field, and Jose Ortiz — one of the best in the business — gives this horse every chance to run his race. If Problem Solved stumbles, My King Air is right there to cash a place ticket.

show4AbundanceML 8/1

Abundance at 8/1 morning line is the show value play here, posting a 57.21 TrackWiz rating that slots neatly between the two chalk horses. Johanis Aranguren gets the mount for Eduardo Rodriguez, and while this isn't a barn associated with dominant maiden wins, the price makes Abundance a smart inclusion in trifecta tickets. Average speed of 53 is respectable enough in a wide-open bottom-level field where chaos is always a factor.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Laughnowcrylater looks like a steamroller in this starter allowance mile, but the supporting cast has enough career experience — and one intriguing win percentage — to keep the exotics interesting.

win3LaughnowcrylaterML 6/5

Laughnowcrylater carries the top TrackWiz rating (89.71) by a wide margin in this field and comes in with a 16% career win rate that speaks to consistent ability over time. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Michael McCarthy, and that trainer-jockey pairing is the kind of combination that shows up when connections mean business. The 6/5 morning line is short, but it's justified — this horse grades out as a clear class standout in starter allowance company, and a 54 average speed figure over a mile surface adds to the confidence.

place4Suited and BootedML 7/2

Suited and Booted stands out with the field's best career win percentage at 25% — one of every four starts has ended in a winner's circle photo, and that's a number worth respecting. The 49.34 TrackWiz rating and 55 average speed give this J. Kent Sweezey trainee legitimate credentials to hit the board, especially at a 7/2 morning line that represents fair value in the place slot. James Graham is a capable rider who can sit a trip and pounce if the pace collapses.

show1CulpritML 4/1

Culprit opens at 4/1 for the David Jacobson barn with Tyler Gaffalione aboard — a high-profile jockey booking that's always worth noting. The 45.56 TrackWiz rating and 11% career win rate aren't eye-popping, but in a field where the top two picks are well ahead of the pack, Culprit fits the profile of a horse who grinds into third. A solid show inclusion for tri and super tickets.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong claiming dash is legitimately wide open at the top — three horses rated in the 78-85 range set up a potential pace duel that could benefit anyone who stalks from mid-pack.

win6Lucky ShotML 9/2

Lucky Shot carries an 84.90 TrackWiz rating into a field where the top three contenders are separated by razor-thin margins, and it's that rating edge — combined with a solid 18% career win rate — that earns the top spot. The 56 average speed figure is the best in the field, and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay potential if the betting public loads up on the two morning-line favorites. Santiago Gonzalez gets the call, and this is a horse that should be competitive if the pace scenario plays out in its favor.

place1Doctor JeffML 5/2

Doctor Jeff is a legit contender here, not just a place filler — a 21% career win rate is the best in the race, and that 57 average speed figure leads all horses in the field. Jose Ortiz rides for Joe Sharp, and that's a powerful barn-jockey alliance at Churchill. The 5/2 morning line is the shortest among the top three, which makes the place slot a safe landing spot if Lucky Shot gets up in front.

show2Social HourML 3/1

Social Hour rates closely to Doctor Jeff at 78.23 and represents the David Jacobson stable, which has been active and competitive at this meet. A 16% career win rate is solid, and Tyler Gaffalione — one of Churchill's most consistent riders — is always dangerous in a sprint. If this pace scenario sets up for a closer, Social Hour has the profile to hit the board at a workable 3/1 morning line.

Our free picks today are centered on the early part of the card, where the track bias is still establishing itself. Problem Solved (Race 1, 9/5 ML) rates out as one of our stronger plays of the afternoon with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating in a maiden claiming sprint — the kind of horse who could take advantage of a thinned-out field on a day when casual money stays home. In Race 2, Laughnowcrylater tops a starter allowance field going one mile and carries our highest free-race rating at 89.71, making that morning line of 6/5 look like a fair number rather than an overlay. Lucky Shot rounds out the free trio in Race 3 at a juicy 9/2 — that's the kind of price that gets our attention in a six-furlong claiming sprint where pace could be chaotic on a wet surface.

The connecting thread across these three races: all are on the dirt, all will be affected by the same rain that's been falling since morning, and all feature top picks with legitimate pace or class edges we've identified through TrackWiz analysis. Pay attention to early scratches — wet days see more of them, and a field change could flip the script on any of these.

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Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong claiming race where Hesper holds a meaningful TrackWiz rating advantage but two horses at 10/1 and above offer legitimate upset potential in what could be a pace-pressured sprint.

win7HesperML 5/1

Hesper's 84.17 TrackWiz rating is the class of this field — second-best in the race by a solid margin — and Gregory Foley puts Tyler Gaffalione on top, one of the premier jockeys in the country. The 55 average speed figure is on par with several rivals, but the overall rating separation is what stands out here. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's value attached to this pick, and that combination of top-rated horse plus elite rider makes Hesper a strong win contender.

place8Good to Be PrinceML 10/1

Good to Be Prince is an interesting 10/1 overlay with a 61.30 TrackWiz rating that actually ranks third in this field — a horse that's rated better than two-thirds of the competition yet opens at double-digit odds. Jareth Loveberry has been solid at Churchill, and Eduardo Rodriguez conditions this one. The 9% career win rate is modest, but in a wide-open claiming sprint, this horse has the raw ability to run into the exacta at a very attractive price.

show3Halfway JokingML 7/2

Halfway Joking rates 59.53 for David Jacobson, a barn that appears three times on today's card — suggesting the stable is live and firing. A 14% career win rate and 55 average speed are respectable numbers at this level, and Walter A. Rodriguez gets the mount. At 7/2, this is a fair-priced show option that provides decent coverage in trifecta construction.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A large, chaotic maiden claiming sprint on the dirt — thirteen runners including several first-time starters with no speed figures on record — making trainer and jockey power the most reliable handicapping angle.

win8Passage Du DesirML 4/1

Passage Du Desir gets the top spot on our TrackWiz rating (55.00) and benefits from the elite pairing of Jose Ortiz and Brad Cox — arguably the most accomplished trainer at Churchill Downs in recent history. A 54 average speed figure gives us at least some data to work with in a field loaded with unknowns, and the 4/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse with a recognizable connections advantage. In a race this chaotic, leaning on the best barn in the game is never a bad strategy.

place9Soul of the NightML 5/1

Soul of the Night is the other Brad Cox runner in this field and actually posts the highest average speed figure of any horse in the race at 57 — a number that jumps off the page in maiden claiming company. Luis Saez is one of the top pilots in the sport, and Cox running two in the same race often means both are pointed and ready. The 5/1 morning line makes this an excellent place play, and the speed advantage is real.

show11She's ToastyML 6/1

She's Toasty opens at 6/1 for Eddie Kenneally — a trainer who has quietly been one of the more consistent conditioners at Churchill over the years. The 51.67 TrackWiz rating ties with Devious Lady for third-best in the field, and with no speed figure on record, there's some mystery attached that the odds may not fully reflect. In a 13-horse maiden sprint, show horses can surprise, and this one has the profile to sneak onto the trifecta.

Race 6

7:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Just Do Believe's eye-popping 75% career win rate dominates the narrative, but Special Sauce and Revel Toast are live threats that could make this exacta genuinely interesting.

win4Just Do BelieveML 7/2

Just Do Believe enters with a 75% career win rate — that number is not a typo, and it demands attention. The TrackWiz rating of 86.35 confirms the talent level, and while the 53 average speed figure is the lowest among the top picks, career winning percentages like that don't happen by accident. Jeiron Barbosa rides for Anthony Farrior, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse that should be bet with confidence as the win selection.

place5Revel ToastML 4/1

Revel Toast brings a 28% career win rate and a 70.83 TrackWiz rating into this spot — legitimate credentials for a horse who opens at 4/1. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Kinnon LaRose, and that jockey booking carries weight. The 54 average speed is in the mix, and Revel Toast profiles as a horse that can stalk the pace and run on if Just Do Believe is caught wide or hits traffic.

show2Special SauceML 9/2

Special Sauce has the second-best career win rate in this field at 30% and a 70.72 TrackWiz rating that's virtually identical to Revel Toast's. Edgar Morales takes the mount for Genaro Garcia, and the 55 average speed figure gives this one a measurable edge over some rivals. At 9/2, Special Sauce is a solid show play and a natural third wheel in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 7

7:48 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight mile where the top two market choices are separated by just over a point on our ratings — and a legitimate double-digit longshot could make the exotics pay beautifully.

win3Gut ReactionML 9/5

Gut Reaction tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 and draws Jose Ortiz, the single most important jockey booking on today's card — Ortiz is riding with authority at this meet and that matters enormously in maiden special weight company. The 9/5 morning line makes this the clear public choice, and Kinnon LaRose's barn has shown it can develop young horses. With no average speed figure on record, there's some debut uncertainty, but the ratings edge and jockey power are compelling.

place7When I GoML 5/2

When I Go rates 57.50 — just a hair behind Gut Reaction — and Tyler Gaffalione slides into the irons for Eric Foster. That's back-to-back top-flight jockey bookings among our top two picks in this race, which tells you the market respects both runners. At 5/2, When I Go is the natural place play and a horse that could easily flip the result if it settles better out of the gate over this mile.

show5My Boy GaryML 8/1

My Boy Gary at 8/1 is the value show play here, posting a 48.33 TrackWiz rating that sits solidly third in the field. Kenneth McPeek is a top-tier trainer with a strong maiden record, and Emmanuel Esquivel gets the mount. The 53 average speed figure matches several rivals, and in a maiden field this evenly matched beyond the top two, My Boy Gary has every right to be running into the trifecta at a generous morning line.

Race 8

8:19 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Pagode looks like a heavy-class standout in this allowance route — the 8/5 favorite carries the top TrackWiz rating by a wide margin — but Penalty Box and a sneaky 10/1 shot give the exacta real intrigue.

win9PagodeML 8/5

Pagode's 89.12 TrackWiz rating leads this ten-horse allowance field by nearly 19 points — that's a dominant separation that's hard to argue with. Jose Ortiz rides for Joe Sharp, the same barn-jockey tandem that's been sharp all day on this card, and a 12% career win rate is consistent with a horse that competes at a solid level. The 8/5 morning line is short but warranted — this is a horse being pointed right at this spot.

place5Penalty BoxML 4/1

Penalty Box checks in at 70.50 on our ratings and represents Michael McCarthy's barn with Ben Curtis up — a trainer-jockey pairing with allowance race credibility. The 12% career win rate matches Pagode's exactly, and a 54 average speed figure is competitive in this field. At 4/1, the place market should offer some value if Pagode monopolizes the win action, making this a smart exacta companion.

show2Amor PatriaeML 10/1

Amor Patriae opens at 10/1 with a 56.22 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this field — and that disconnect between rating and odds is where the value lives. A 56 average speed figure is the second-highest among all runners in the race, which is a meaningful edge in a route. Jaime Torres rides for James DiVito, and a 10% career win rate in allowance company suggests a horse that's been competitive without always breaking through. Worth including in trifecta and super combinations.

Race 9

8:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The turf closer on the card features a genuine upset alert — our top-rated horse opens at 12/1, creating one of the best potential overlays of the entire day.

win1Anthony the GreatML 12/1

Anthony the Great is the TrackWiz top pick at 73.96 — and that rating leads this entire ten-horse maiden claiming turf field by more than six points. Here's what makes this really interesting: the morning line of 12/1 suggests the public isn't yet aware of the edge our analysis identifies, which is exactly the kind of overlay situation TrackWiz exists to surface. A 55 average speed figure on turf is solid, and Francisco Arrieta rides for Armando Hernandez, who also saddles the 6/1 Tonys Kingdom — the stable is clearly live on the grass today.

place9RockfestML 3/1

Rockfest enters as the public's second choice at 3/1 with a 67.71 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and Jaime Torres rides for James DiVito's barn. The 55 average speed figure on turf is consistent with the top picks, and a 3/1 morning line for a horse with legitimate rating credentials is fair value in the place slot. If Anthony the Great gets loose at a big number, Rockfest is the natural backup.

show5OutofpiML 4/1

Outofpi rates 60.93 and shows the best average speed figure among our three picks at 56 — that's a number that stands out in a maiden turf sprint where small edges matter. Assael Espinoza gets the mount for Reina Gonzalez's barn, and the 4/1 morning line is workable. In a tight turf sprint at 5.5 furlongs, pace and position matter enormously, and Outofpi's speed figures suggest it can be on or near the front end where Churchill turf sprints are often won.

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Bottom line: nine races, a wet Churchill Downs main track, and enough uncertainty baked into the conditions to make disciplined handicapping pay off today. Problem Solved, Laughnowcrylater, and Lucky Shot are your free best bets to start the card — and subscribers have the full picture waiting for them. Good luck out there, and may the mud miss your tickets.

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