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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — August 18, 2026

August 18, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

It's a beautiful Tuesday at Assiniboia Downs — clear skies, 70°F, and a fast dirt surface that should have horses running big numbers all afternoon. Seven races are on the board, and this card has a little bit of everything: maiden claimers, a Stakes showdown, and a route that could produce the best finish of the day.

Conditions are about as good as it gets on the Prairies in August. When the weather cooperates like this and the strip is playing fair, front-runners and pace-pressers tend to hold up well — something worth keeping in mind as you build your tickets. Our TrackWiz models have strong opinions on five of the seven races, so let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where two horses stand head and shoulders above the field on ratings, setting up a likely top-two battle with a 90-point gap separating the chalk from the bottom half of the field.

win5Silvercreek AnnieML 3/5

Silvercreek Annie is the morning-line favorite at 3/5 for good reason — our TrackWiz rating of 90 is the top mark in the field by a significant margin, and her average speed figure of 52 ties for best in the race. Trainer Mike Taphorn puts her in at a competitive claiming level to get the maiden tag removed, and jockey Neville Stephenson is a reliable pilot to have aboard a short-priced favorite. In a race this weak, she should be forwardly placed and hard to catch.

place3Point MaidML 8/5

Point Maid checks in second on the TrackWiz ratings at 81.1 and matches Silvercreek Annie's average speed figure of 52, making her the most logical runner-up threat. Trainer Terry Neubuhr has her ready at 8/5 on the morning line, and Rashawn Brewster gets the call in what should be a winnable spot for the exacta.

show6CloudsinmycoffeeML 15/1

Cloudsinmycoffee is worth a look at 15/1 as the show selection — her TrackWiz rating of 59.88 is a clear step above the bottom of this field, and her average speed figure of 50 gives her a fighting chance to hit the board. Trainer Tiffany Husbands also saddles Roseisle Rose, but Cloudsinmycoffee draws the stronger rating, making her the stable's best exotic hope. At those odds, she's a nice trifecta filler.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Trainer Robert Maybin dominates the entries with three of the five starters, making the in-barn dynamics a key factor — this one looks like an inside job, but the question is which Maybin horse he wants most.

win5Norma NoML 2/1

Norma No is the standout of the Maybin trio and frankly the standout of the entire field, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 that is more than 10 points clear of her nearest rival. Her 38% career win rate is elite at this level — that's not a horse that runs around the track, that's a horse that finishes the job. Paired with jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen at 2/1 on the morning line, she looks like a confident play to make the winner's circle.

place2Valerie ValeskiML 9/2

Valerie Valeski is the interesting piece here — her TrackWiz rating of 77.91 actually sits second in the field, higher than stablemate Jersey Lillie despite going off at 9/2. She's posted a 13% career win rate which is modest, but her figure suggests she's better than that number implies. With Kerron Khelawan up, she should be fighting for the exacta spot.

show1Jersey LillieML 3/1

Jersey Lillie rounds out the ticket at 3/1 and brings solid credentials — a 29% career win rate is legitimately strong and she's run to an average speed figure of 54. She's the third of Maybin's runners and might not get the best of the setup, but a horse with that win percentage doesn't forget how to fire on a given day. She's the logical show anchor in an all-Maybin exotic.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Indyetta looms as a heavy favorite in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, but Unknown Caller sitting at 8/1 with a top speed figure of 54 makes the pace scenario interesting and the exotics worth playing.

win2IndyettaML 6/5

Indyetta has the strongest TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.88 and backs it up with a 25% career win rate that says she converts when ready. Her average speed figure of 53 is competitive, and the 6/5 morning line reflects that oddsmakers see her as the clear class of this group. Trainer Steve Keplin, Jr. and jockey Sven Balroop team up here — that's a combination worth respecting in a spot like this.

place5Unknown CallerML 8/1

Miss Z at 5/1 is the natural place selection — she carries a 63.4 TrackWiz rating and a 17% career win rate in what's a solid if unspectacular profile. Sheldon Chickeness has the mount and she's posted an average speed figure of 53, putting her right in the mix. She doesn't need to beat Indyetta to hit the board, just needs to hold off the rest.

show3Miss ZML 5/1

Rating board at 63.4. Ridden by Sheldon Chickeness. 5 wins and placed in 16 of 28 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 4 races.

The first three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they offer a solid foundation for your day. Silvercreek Annie opens the card as a heavy 3/5 morning line favorite in the Maiden Claiming sprint — her TrackWiz rating of 90 leads the entire card, and on a day when the dirt is playing fast, that kind of raw ability tends to show up early. Race 2 shifts to open claimers, where Norma No (2/1 ML, 88.54 rating) brings a compelling profile at a price that offers real value. Then in Race 3, Indyetta goes postward as the 6/5 choice in another claiming sprint — three strong top picks in three races to open the card is exactly the kind of foundation you want before diving into the exotics.

One angle to watch across these early sprints: with clear weather and a consistent surface, early pace figures to be honest rather than suicidal. Horses with tactical speed — the kind that can sit second or third and still have something left — may have an edge over pure front-runners today. Keep that pace scenario in mind when you're sorting the exactas.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open stakes sprint for juveniles where the ratings are bunched tight at the top and no horse has built a career win percentage — this one comes down to the morning workouts and who shows up ready on race day.

win8ThickML 5/2

Thick draws our TrackWiz win selection at 5/2 on the morning line, packing the field's top rating at 57.5 alongside an average speed figure of 53. Antonio Whitehall has the mount under trainer Michael Nault, who also saddles Today's Agenda, but Thick is clearly the stable's main hope here. In a stakes race where the data is limited across the board, leaning on the top-rated horse with a competitive speed figure is the most defensible play.

place7Cape SpearML 7/2

Cape Spear sits just a half-point behind Thick on the TrackWiz scale at 55.83 and brings an average speed figure of 53 to match. Trainer Jared Brown and jockey Damario Bynoe team up at 7/2, which is fair market value for a horse in this tier. If the pace gets contentious early, a horse with Cape Spear's profile could be sitting pretty turning for home.

show10Big StrideML 4/1

Big Stride rounds out the ticket at 4/1 — his TrackWiz rating of 55.0 puts him right in the cluster at the top of this field, separated from Cape Spear by less than a point. Trainer Eugene Burns sends out Shavon Townsend in what's a competitive spot for a young horse. In a stakes race this compressed at the top, three horses within three points of each other is reason enough to use all three in your exotic plays.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't actually the top-rated horse in this allowance optional claiming route — She's My Niece carries the best TrackWiz number at 4/1, setting up a potential overlay situation in what looks like a genuinely contested affair.

win2She's My NieceML 4/1

She's My Niece heads our TrackWiz selection at 82.47, the highest rating in this field, yet she goes off at 4/1 — that's an overlay worth circling. Her 19% career win rate is respectable, and her average speed figure of 53 over 7½ furlongs puts her in the thick of this. Antonio Whitehall gets the mount for trainer William Tourangeau, and if she handles the distance, the price makes her the most valuable play on the card.

place3Dancing RaquelML 8/5

Dancing Raquel is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and isn't without merit — her 76.26 TrackWiz rating and 18% career win rate show a consistent horse. She's been slightly underperforming her figure relative to her career win numbers, which could mean she's a closer type who finds the board more than she wins outright. At that short price, place is the right spot to key her.

show1Peterson LandingML 12/1

Rating board at 74.0. Ridden by Kerron Khelawan. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.47 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 25% win rate and finished in the money in 70% of races.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Jacks Spring Break headlines a nine-horse mile on the dirt and looks like the class of the field on paper, but a 6/5 price in a crowded field always carries risk — the pace scenario at a mile should be watched closely.

win6Jacks Spring BreakML 6/5

Jacks Spring Break towers over this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.87 — that's more than 22 points clear of the second-ranked horse, Wrong Direction. Trainer Steve Keplin, Jr. and jockey Rachaad Knights team up, which is a pairing worth respecting. His average speed figure of 51 is consistent with the field's range, and a 14% career win rate in a deep horse population is workable. The price is short, but the rating gap is real.

place3Wrong DirectionML 6/1

Wrong Direction enters at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 65.72 — second in the field — and a 16% career win rate that shows he's been around the block. Trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. has him set for a mile on the dirt with jockey Tyrone Nelson up, and his average speed figure of 51 is right in line with the pace the field is likely to produce. He's the most logical threat to the favorite at a workable price.

show9FunkensteinML 4/1

Funkenstein at 4/1 fills out the show spot with a 55.78 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate. Trainer Michael Nault and jockey Mathew Bennett hook up in a spot where they need to navigate a nine-horse field at a mile — that's a race where trip luck matters. His average speed figure of 51 fits the pace profile, and at 4/1 he's a reasonable trifecta anchor if the top two hold their positions.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Don't let the 4/5 morning line on Rags Royal Prinz fool you — Switzler Jammin carries the highest TrackWiz rating AND the best career win percentage in the field, making this a classic case of a vulnerable favorite and a legitimate upset opportunity.

win6Switzler JamminML 4/1

Switzler Jammin is our TrackWiz top selection and the value play of the race — an 85.62 rating combined with a 33% career win rate is a combination that speaks for itself, and he gets there at 4/1. Jockey Rachaad Knights has the mount for Tom Gardipy, Jr., and his average speed figure of 54 is the best in the race. The fact that the crowd has installed Rags Royal Prinz as the 4/5 favorite despite a lower rating and a lower win percentage is exactly the kind of market inefficiency TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place1Piccata PrinceML 5/1

Piccata Prince brings a 70.01 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55 — the highest in the field — which says he's capable of running fast enough to hit the board. His career win rate of 8% is low, but a horse posting a 55 speed figure at this level isn't one to dismiss entirely. Javaniel R. Patterson takes the reins for trainer Mike Taphorn, and in a five-furlong dash, early speed can paper over a lot of weaknesses.

show2DarnquickML 15/1

Rating board at 60.5 • 22% career wins. Ridden by Shavon Townsend. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.37 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 59% of races.

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Bottom line: Assiniboia is giving us ideal conditions and a card with legitimate top picks from the gate to the wire. Silvercreek Annie, Norma No, and Indyetta are your free best bets to start the day strong. For the Stakes, the route, and our complete exotic strategies through Race 7, the full analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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