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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — August 12, 2026

August 12, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

Clear skies and a comfortable 73°F greet us at Assiniboia Downs on Wednesday, August 12 — about as good as it gets for a summer afternoon at the track. With no rain in the picture, expect a consistent dirt surface all day and times that should translate cleanly from recent workouts and past performances.

We've got a seven-race card on tap, and it's a nicely varied menu: five claiming races bookending a pair of allowance optional claimers and a standalone Stakes event in Race 4 that gives the afternoon a real focal point. The class spectrum here means there's something for every handicapping style, whether you're grinding the claimers for value or zeroing in on that feature race.

TrackWiz analysis has flagged some intriguing morning-line prices across the card — including a couple of double-digit underlays worth watching and at least one juicy overlay that could make the exotics sing. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite doesn't match our top-rated horse in this 5-furlong dirt claimer — Hellabella's TrackWiz rating towers over the field and screams hidden value at 5/1.

win4HellabellaML 5/1

Hellabella (No. 4) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.17 — a full 20 points clear of the morning-line favorite Tap the Parlay. That gap is hard to ignore in a short-field claimer at 5 furlongs. Jockey Sven Balroop gets the call for trainer M. L. Pierce, and the 27% career win rate suggests this horse knows how to find the winner's circle. At 5/1 on the morning line, the public hasn't caught on — that's exactly the kind of overlay we look for.

place3Tap the ParlayML 8/5

Tap the Parlay (No. 3) is the chalk at 8/5 and has the second-highest rating in the field at 64.38, backed by an eye-catching 42% career win rate — the best in this field by a wide margin. Trainer Michael Nault has a live horse here, and at 5 furlongs Tap the Parlay's speed figures (avg 54) match the top tier. Even if Hellabella gets to the wire first, this one is tough to leave off your ticket.

show2My AnticipationML 2/1

My Anticipation (No. 2) posts a solid 55.35 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate in what is a pretty thin claiming field. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, and jockey Shavon Townsend gives this horse a capable rider. If the pace gets hot up front between the speed horses, My Anticipation could be sitting in a nice spot to pick up a piece at the wire.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Apple Fest is the public's choice in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, but our TrackWiz model strongly disagrees — Mini Glazed Donut tops the ratings at nearly 80 and offers real overlay value at 8/1.

win1Mini Glazed DonutML 8/1

Mini Glazed Donut (No. 1) is the standout value play of this race. Despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line, she posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 — 20 points clear of the second-best horse. A 21% career win rate shows she's been consistent when conditions set up right, and trainer Tiffany Husbands has her pointed at a spot where the model sees clear superiority. If she fires her best number here, she wins and pays.

place4Short SpeechML 3/1

Short Speech (No. 4) rates second in the field at 74.58 and looks like a logical place contender at 3/1. Trained by Jerry Gourneau, he's one of two Gourneau runners in this race, and connections clearly like the spot. Jockey Damario Bynoe steps in, and while the 14% career win rate is modest, the rating suggests there's more ability here than the record shows.

show6Apple FestML 6/5

Apple Fest (No. 6) is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, which means the public will load up on her — but our analysis suggests she's third-best in this field on ratings. Rachaad Knights rides for trainer Brent Hrymak, and with a 14% career win rate, Apple Fest won't be short of supporters. Her value is mostly in exotics — use her underneath in trifectas and keyed above our top two.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight battle shaping up at the top of this mile dirt claimer — Stand by Time and Pineapple Tidbits are separated by just over two points in our ratings, setting up what could be a competitive stretch run.

win4Stand by TimeML 7/2

Stand by Time (No. 4) edges the field with the top TrackWiz rating at 86.35, narrowly ahead of Pineapple Tidbits. Trained by Jerry Gourneau and piloted by Renaldo Cumberbatch, this horse brings an avg speed figure of 52 to the mile distance — right in line with the top of the field. The 11% career win rate is low, but the rating model signals this horse has been running against tougher and is now in a spot where the talent advantage is real. At 7/2, there's legitimate value here.

place2Pineapple TidbitsML 3/1

Pineapple Tidbits (No. 2) is right on Stand by Time's heels at 84.02 and has the better career win rate at 21%. Trainer Keith Pedersen has this one coming in with an avg speed of 52, matching the top horses in the field, and jockey Kerron Khelawan is a reliable hand around the Assiniboia oval. If Stand by Time gets rank or bleeds off speed on the front, Pineapple Tidbits could be the one picking up the pieces.

show6MidnightcandystormML 5/1

Midnightcandystorm (No. 6) fills out the show spot at a fair 5/1 morning line with a 71.86 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field with daylight between him and the rest. Trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. sends out Tyrone Nelson, and the 52 avg speed figure is on par with the top tier. The 6% career win rate is a flag, but this horse is clearly running with better horses and should be in the mix for a piece in this mile trip.

The first three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and they form a solid foundation for the day. Hellabella opens the card at 5 furlongs with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 at a workable 5/1 morning line — a horse worth tracking early to see how she handles the dirt off a clean, dry strip. In Race 2, Mini Glazed Donut catches the eye at 8/1 — that's the kind of morning-line price that gets our attention, especially when paired with a rating pushing 80 in what figures to be a competitive 5.5-furlong sprint. And in Race 3, Stand by Time stretches out to a mile with our top rating among the free races at 86.35, making the 7/2 morning line look like a reasonable target for win bettors and a natural anchor for early multi-race sequences.

On a fast, dry Assiniboia dirt track, pace scenario matters. Sprinters who can get to the front early or sit just off a contested pace tend to have a real edge. Keep that in mind as you watch the early fractions in Races 1 and 2 — they'll tell you a lot about how the surface is playing before you commit to bigger tickets later in the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

Stakes day brings out a legitimate battle — No Show No Call carries the top rating and a dominant 40% career win rate, but Livininthefastlane at 10/1 could be the sneaky price play in a wide-open mile.

win4No Show No CallML 3/1

No Show No Call (No. 4) is the horse to beat in this stakes mile, full stop. The TrackWiz rating of 86.61 leads the field, and a 40% career win rate from trainer Mike Taphorn's barn is the kind of number that makes you sit up straight. Jockey Damario Bynoe takes the mount on what looks like the most accomplished horse in the field. At 3/1, the price is fair — this is a horse that wins at nearly half his starts and steps into a stakes where our model gives him a clear edge.

place6LivininthefastlaneML 10/1

Livininthefastlane (No. 6) is the value play in this stakes field — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating at 10/1 on the morning line is the kind of overlay that catches the eye. Trainer Devon Gittens sends this one out with Mathew Bennett up, and a 14% career win rate in what has likely been a tougher class makes the number more impressive. If the even-money Al Reichert gets bumped or caught in traffic, Livininthefastlane is right there to collect.

show5Al ReichertML EVN

Al Reichert (No. 5) goes as the public's second choice at even money with a 76.66 TrackWiz rating and a strong 31% career win rate. Jockey Amadeo Perez rides for trainer Robert Henson, and the 53 avg speed figure ties him with several other contenders at the top. He's rated a tick behind our top two but is clearly a legitimate threats — use him in exacta and trifecta exotics to cover the race.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

The 6/5 morning-line favorite Omaha Warrior gets a rude wake-up call from our model — Neytiri and Yellow Jacket both rate significantly higher, making this a prime overlay situation at 7.5 furlongs.

win2NeytiriML 5/1

Neytiri (No. 2) tops our TrackWiz ratings in this field at 84.17 while going off at 5/1 — nearly four times the price of the public's choice, Omaha Warrior. Trainer Lise Pruitt and jockey Antonio Whitehall are a pairing to respect, and a 22% career win rate on a horse rated this highly signals legitimate ability. The 7.5-furlong distance is a test, but the speed figures (avg 53) are consistent with the top of the field.

place1Yellow JacketML 4/1

Yellow Jacket (No. 1) rates second at 80.96 for trainer M. L. Pierce and jockey Sven Balroop — the same barn connection sending out Hellabella earlier on the card. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and while the 9% career win rate looks modest, the raw rating says this horse has been competitive at a solid level. In a pace scenario where early speed gets pressured over 7.5 furlongs, Yellow Jacket's positioning could be the difference.

show5Global AgendaML 3/1

Global Agenda (No. 5) stands out for one reason: a 57 avg speed figure, the highest in the field by four points. That kind of raw speed number from trainer M. L. Pierce — who also runs Yellow Jacket — suggests connections have a stable entry worth considering. At 3/1, the 25% career win rate makes this a horse that earns his share of exacta and trifecta coverage.

Race 6

2:50 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open allowance optional claimer at 7 furlongs with a legit overlay — Lansdowne tops the ratings at 4/1 while the even-money Judo rates second, setting up an intriguing exacta battle.

win5LansdowneML 4/1

Lansdowne (No. 5) leads the field with a 70.39 TrackWiz rating and sports the second-highest avg speed figure in the field at 55 — which is meaningful in a 7-furlong dirt race where sustained pace matters. Trainer Jared Brown sends him out with Dario Dalrymple in the irons, and a 24% career win rate shows this horse closes the deal regularly. At 4/1, Lansdowne is the best-rated horse at a price better than even money — that's a value play worth building your tickets around.

place7JudoML EVN

Judo (No. 7) is the public's top choice at even money with a 65.77 TrackWiz rating and an excellent 26% career win rate. Trainer Steve Keplin, Jr. and jockey Sven Balroop team up on a horse that figures to be competitive — but our model has Lansdowne rated meaningfully higher, making Judo more of a place play than the win bet the morning line implies. Use him to fill out your exacta under Lansdowne.

show8Calming ForceML 25/1

Calming Force (No. 8) is the longshot angle in this analysis — going off at 25/1 with a 40% career win rate, the highest in this field. That's a horse who consistently wins when everything goes right, and trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. is pointing this one at a spot where the class level might be the sweet spot. The 55 TrackWiz rating is mid-field but the win rate alone demands at least a trifecta look at a price.

Race 7

3:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Golden Buck dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this allowance optional claimer, but Ario's superior speed figures and a pace setup that could soften things up makes this more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win6Golden BuckML 7/2

Golden Buck (No. 6) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 — a number that stands well clear of the rest of the field in this 7.5-furlong allowance optional claimer. Trainer Mike Taphorn and jockey Dario Dalrymple form a pairing that commands respect, and a 19% career win rate from a horse rated this highly is a good sign. The 7/2 morning line is a gift given the rating gap — this is our strongest win selection of the later portion of the card.

place3ArioML 5/2

Ario (No. 3) brings the best avg speed figure in this field at 55 — three points ahead of several rivals — and a 25% career win rate that shows he knows how to win. Trainer M. L. Pierce has horses firing well on this card, and jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen slides in at a fair 5/2 price. If the pace is honest over 7.5 furlongs and Golden Buck gets tested early, Ario's raw speed could carry him to a strong finish.

show5Lab RatML 6/5

Lab Rat (No. 5) is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, yet our model places him third in the field at 57.29 — well behind Golden Buck and Ario. That's a significant overlay in reverse — meaning if you're using Lab Rat to win, you're accepting short odds on a horse our model doesn't love. He's a solid show play given the public backing and a 22% career win rate, but the real money in this race points elsewhere. Use him in trifectas as the closer who shows up for a piece.

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Bottom line: Assiniboia is serving up a clean, competitive seven-race card under ideal conditions. Stand by Time is our top-rated free pick heading into the afternoon, and No Show No Call anchors the premium side of the card in the Stakes. If you want the full pace breakdown, exotic strategies, and our complete analysis on every race, unlock the card with a TrackWiz subscription — check out our plans at /pricing. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets.

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