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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — August 11, 2026

Tuesday, August 11, 20267 racesAssiniboia

Assiniboia Downs serves up a tight seven-race Tuesday card on August 11, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you'll get in late summer — overcast skies, a comfortable 71°F, and a dirt surface that should play fair all afternoon. No rain, no slop, no excuses. Just horses.

The card is front-loaded with claiming action, which means pace scenarios and class drops are going to be your best friends today. We've got a couple of short-priced morning-line favorites that look like they mean business, plus at least one spot deeper in the card where the morning line opens the door for some real value. Seven races, plenty of angles — let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite dominates the morning line in this 7-furlong claiming opener, but two mid-priced contenders are close enough in the ratings to make the exotics interesting.

win2SmoochingML 2/5

Smooching comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the highest in the field by a wide margin — and the 2/5 morning line reflects just how much the market respects this one. A 21% career win rate is genuinely strong at this level, and with Devante Prescod in the irons, the connections look sharp. At 7 furlongs on dirt, a horse with this kind of rating separation rarely gets beaten, though the short price means you're betting on a process, not a payout.

place5Miss the HypeML 3/1

Miss the Hype draws the #5 post with a 76.78 TrackWiz rating and a 13% career win mark, making her the logical backup in the place spot. Trainer Robert Maybin sends her out with Kerron Khelawan aboard, and at 3/1 on the morning line there's genuine value here relative to the favorite's cramped odds. If Smooching hits any traffic in the stretch, Miss the Hype is the most likely beneficiary.

show4Tia SuziML 6/1

Tia Suzi (75.64 rating, 6/1 morning line) slots in just below Miss the Hype in the TrackWiz numbers, making her a reasonable show-ticket anchor for exotic players. Trainer Victoria Morse has Neville Stephenson up, a solid combination at this level. At 6/1, she represents enough value to include in trifecta keys without blowing up your ticket cost.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Silver Spiced draws in as a strong chalk at 3/5, but the Desjarlais barn has two horses in this race — a trainer angle worth watching as the pace scenario develops over 7½ furlongs.

win4Silver SpicedML 3/5

Silver Spiced carries a 90 TrackWiz rating and is the clear class of this field on paper, which explains the 3/5 morning line. Trainer Jared Brown puts Neville Stephenson in the saddle — a confident booking — and the horse's profile stands well above the competition in a 7½-furlong dirt claiming event. A 14% career win rate isn't flashy, but with a rating gap this large over the second-best horse, the consistency of the form is what matters most here.

place1Little EddieML 3/1

Little Eddie (75.24 rating, 3/1 ML) is trained by Ryan Desjarlais, who also saddles Amma Jaw Dropper in this same race — a notable barn presence that often signals at least one of the pair is primed to fire. Jockey Sven Balroop gets the call, and with an 18% career win rate, Little Eddie has been knocking on the door consistently enough to expect a placing effort.

show3Amma Jaw DropperML 5/1

Amma Jaw Dropper brings the best career win percentage in the field at 20%, trained by Ryan Desjarlais who has two shots at this race. The 5/1 morning line on a horse with that win rate represents a touch of value, and at 63.44 in the TrackWiz ratings, she's solidly third in the pecking order. Rachaad Knights rides, and the barn connection to Little Eddie could mean a pace setup that benefits both horses.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The two top-rated horses are separated by only 4.4 TrackWiz points at nearly identical morning-line prices, setting up a genuine duel at the top — and a longshot show play with real upside lurks further down the card.

win5Golden CheeroML 9/5

Golden Cheero earns an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and comes in at 9/5, just a shade higher than the 8/5 chalk beside her. What separates this one is a 25% career win rate — the best among the main contenders — and Kerron Khelawan, who is one of the busier riders on the Assiniboia circuit. Trainer Carl Norman Anderson sends out a horse with a 53 average speed figure, matching the top of the field, and in a 6-furlong sprint that pace edge can be decisive.

place4Not So SwiftML 8/5

Not So Swift (84.41 rating, 8/5 ML) is the other half of what shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top of this field. The 8/5 morning line makes her the narrow public favorite, and Damario Bynoe — a live rider at this track — gets the mount for trainer Tiffany Husbands. The 53 average speed figure ties Golden Cheero at the top of the field, and while the career win rate shows zero on the data, the raw speed numbers suggest a horse capable of a sharp placing effort.

show6Hyper HolidayML 12/1

Hyper Holiday (64.96 rating, 12/1 ML) is the value angle in this race's exotics, sitting third in the TrackWiz rankings with a meaningful gap back to the rest of the field. Rashawn Brewster rides for Devon Gittens, and at 12/1 the payout potential makes a show ticket or trifecta inclusion well worth considering. If the top two horses set a hot pace and come back to the field, Hyper Holiday is positioned to grab a piece.

Our free analysis covers the first three races, and they form a nice little foundation for the day. Smooching opens things up in Race 1 at 7 furlongs as a heavy 2/5 morning-line choice — that kind of chalk deserves scrutiny, but our TrackWiz rating of 90 backs up the confidence. Silver Spiced in Race 2 draws a similarly short number at 3/5 going 7½ furlongs, and with a matching 90 rating, this one sets up as a strong single on any multi-race ticket. Race 3 shifts to 6 furlongs where Golden Cheero comes in at 9/5 with an 88.83 rating — a notch below the first two but still a clear top choice in what figures to be a contested pace situation. On a fair, fast-playing dirt surface like we're expecting today, front-runners and pace-pressers are both live, so watch the early fractions closely.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't the top-rated horse in this 6-furlong claiming event — Grenache holds the ratings edge at 3/1, creating a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win6GrenacheML 3/1

Grenache posts an 80.1 TrackWiz rating — highest in the field — while going off at a fair 3/1 morning line, meaning the public hasn't fully committed to this one despite the clear form edge. Trainer Wendy Anderson puts Tyrone Nelson aboard, and with a 7% career win rate this is a horse that runs consistently without always converting, suggesting a form cycle that could finally break through. At 6 furlongs on dirt, a top-rated horse with speed-figure support is exactly the profile you want to be on.

place1Call DarlaML 4/1

Call Darla (69.59 rating, 4/1 ML) is second in the TrackWiz rankings and brings a 13% career win rate to the table for trainer Perry Cavanaugh, with Sheldon Chickeness in the irons. The speed figure data is absent for this horse, which introduces a layer of uncertainty, but the overall rating and morning-line price suggest the market sees a legitimate contender — and at 4/1, you're getting compensated for that unknown. A place ticket here offers a sensible risk-reward balance.

show5Witts Opulent LadyML 6/5

Witts Opulent Lady comes in as the 6/5 morning-line favorite despite ranking third in TrackWiz ratings at 65.85 — which makes her a 'bet against on the win, include on the show' type of play. The 20% career win rate for trainer Jerry Gourneau's runner is the best in this field, and Damario Bynoe is a strong rider booking. If she ends up overbet to win, the show pool could offer extra value when the top-rated horses run her down.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint with ten runners and zero career wins in the field — pure maiden territory where TrackWiz ratings do the heavy lifting and the morning-line favorite isn't even the top pick.

win7Little TribuneML 7/2

Little Tribune tops our ratings at 86.35 and goes off at 7/2 — not chalk, but not a longshot either — making this one of the better value propositions on the card relative to actual form. Roger Hewitt takes the mount for trainer Robert Maybin, and with a 52 average speed figure that matches most of the field, the rating edge is the differentiator here. In maiden claiming races, TrackWiz's composite ratings tend to be more predictive than any single stat, and an 86.35 in a field where no horse has ever won is a meaningful edge.

place8Silvercreek AnnieML 2/1

Silvercreek Annie comes in at 2/1 as the morning-line favorite with an 80.16 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure — one of the faster horses in this race. Trainer Mike Taphorn gives the mount to Neville Stephenson, a reliable pilot who knows this track well. She's a narrow second in the ratings but the public's top pick, suggesting smart money is on this filly — she's a logical place ticket anchor regardless of who wins.

show1Moonshine BoogieML 6/1

Moonshine Boogie (76.97 rating, 6/1 ML) rounds out our top three in a maiden field where the margin between third and the rest is surprisingly large. Trainer Lise Pruitt sends her out with Antonio Whitehall aboard, and the 52 average speed figure is consistent with the upper tier of this field. At 6/1, she's priced as a secondary player but her rating gap over the fourth-best horse makes her a strong show-ticket inclusion and a smart trifecta slot.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The deepest field on the card — ten runners in a 6-furlong dirt claiming race — with three horses bunched between 71 and 80 in the TrackWiz ratings and a legitimate pace scenario that should set up closers nicely.

win9You Vee CeeML 5/2

You Vee Cee leads the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 and boasts a 20% career win rate — tied for the highest in this field — with a 54 average speed figure that puts her at the top of the pace pecking order. Damario Bynoe takes the mount for trainer Steve Keplin, Jr., and the 5/2 morning line feels like reasonable value given the number of runners she has to beat. In a ten-horse sprint where speed is at a premium, a horse with a top-tier speed figure and a strong win rate is exactly where you want to be.

place6Red Road RunnerML 9/2

Red Road Runner (77.77 rating, 9/2 ML) is second in the ratings and matches You Vee Cee's 20% career win rate, giving trainer Michael Nault and jockey Antonio Whitehall a strong case for a placing effort. The 53 average speed figure is solid in this field, and the 9/2 morning line offers genuine value for a horse sitting this high in the ratings. If the pace gets hot early, this one could be coming at them late.

show8Mr. DazzleML 7/2

Mr. Dazzle slots in third on the TrackWiz leaderboard at 71.65 and carries a 54 average speed figure — the highest in the field alongside You Vee Cee. Trainer Victoria Morse has Arthur Budhu up at a 7/2 morning line, which feels a touch short for a show-spot horse but still reasonable in a field this deep. The speed figure is intriguing and suggests this one has the raw pace to be competitive; the question is whether he can sustain it over 6 furlongs.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Another maiden claiming event with a dominant TrackWiz rating at the top — Areunotentertained stands out sharply — but Mo Mambo and Swing Time give the place and show exotics some teeth.

win8AreunotentertainedML 9/5

Areunotentertained comes in with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating in a maiden field where the next-best horse is 74.74 — a 14-point gap that's hard to overlook. The 9/5 morning line reflects that advantage, and trainer Jared Brown puts Neville Stephenson in the irons, a sharp combination that has been active at Assiniboia. A 53 average speed figure at the top of this field, combined with a rating edge this large, makes this one as close to a 'bet with confidence' as you'll find in maiden claiming company.

place2Mo MamboML 5/2

Mo Mambo (74.74 rating, 5/2 ML) is a clear second in the ratings and benefits from a 53 average speed figure — matching the top pick's pace profile. Trainer Jason Homer puts Shavon Townsend aboard, and at 5/2 there's enough price to make a place ticket worthwhile if you're not comfortable laying the heavy chalk on the winner. Homer also has Oh So Bouncy in this race, a dual-entry situation that always warrants attention for pace scenario purposes.

show3Swing TimeML 6/1

Swing Time (61.71 rating, 6/1 ML) is third on the TrackWiz board and represents a nice price for a horse that rates this cleanly above the bottom half of the field. Trainer Judy Hunter — who also saddles Flowersonthewall in this race — has Renaldo Cumberbatch up, and the 52 average speed figure puts Swing Time right in the pack pace-wise. At 6/1, she's the kind of show-ticket addition that keeps your exotic costs reasonable while still covering a legitimate contender.

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Bottom line for August 11 at Assiniboia: Smooching, Silver Spiced, and Golden Cheero headline a solid free-play card, all carrying TrackWiz ratings of 88 or better on a surface that should suit them. The premium half of the card has some intriguing prices — particularly Little Tribune at 7/2 in the maiden — and our full analysis ties it all together with pace projections and exotic ticket breakdowns. Subscribers can access the complete card at /pricing. Good luck out there, and trust the process.

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