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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — August 5, 2026

August 5, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

This card ran on August 5, 2026.

Best bets at Assiniboia, August 5, 2026

Race 15Mechanic SusieML EVN8:30 PM EDT

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It's a sharp summer Wednesday at Assiniboia Downs — partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 70°F, and a 7-race dirt card that gives bettors plenty to work with. Conditions look ideal for fast, consistent ground, and with no rain in the picture, expect the track to play fair from rail to path.

The card mixes Allowance company with a handful of Claiming events, so there's class movement to exploit throughout the afternoon. Distances range from a quick 5½ furlongs all the way out to a flat mile, meaning pace scenarios shift dramatically race to race — and that's exactly where the edges are hiding.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, with four premium races available to subscribers. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout sits atop this seven-and-a-half furlong allowance, but a pair of double-digit morning line prices have the ratings to make this trifecta interesting.

win5Mechanic SusieML EVN

Mechanic Susie is the horse to beat here, and the numbers back it up emphatically. She carries a TrackWiz rating of 85.67 — the highest in the field by a comfortable margin — and a career win rate of 48% that is downright elite at this level. Trainer Elton Dickey already has another runner in the race, which signals confidence in the barn, and jockey Antonio Whitehall gets the call on the one that matters. The even-money morning line reflects public respect, but the underlying metrics suggest she's worth following regardless of final odds.

place6Rise AgainML 10/1

Rise Again is the most intriguing overlay on the board at 10/1 on the morning line. A 60% career win rate is the best figure in the entire field — that kind of hit rate doesn't happen by accident — and her TrackWiz rating of 76.88 puts her firmly in contention for a piece. Jockey Kerron Khelawan has the rail-to-outside closing trip mapped out over this distance, and if Mechanic Susie draws attention early, Rise Again could be rolling late.

show2AmplifyML 12/1

Amplify at 12/1 represents a sneaky exotics inclusion with a rating of 73.96 that actually ranks third in this field. The 16% career win rate may not scream confidence, but at that morning line price, you're getting solid form at a discount. Jockey Damario Bynoe gives Amplify a capable handler, and in a race where the top two choices could eat into each other's momentum, this one has the profile to sneak onto the podium.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite isn't the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this five-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint — creating a scenario where sharp money and public money may be pointing in different directions.

win1BranniganML 4/1

Brannigan is our top selection despite a modest 6% career win rate, because that number is being propped up by a TrackWiz rating of 83.35 — the best in the field and a full ten points clear of the next contender. Trainer Jennifer Jordan has this one primed, and jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen gets the mount at a very digestible 4/1 morning line. In a sprint like this, early positioning out of the one-hole matters, and Brannigan's figures suggest the talent to control or press the pace.

place4Big TicketML 12/1

Big Ticket at 12/1 is the value play in the place hole. A 25% career win rate leads all starters in this field, and a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 puts him comfortably in the mix at a price that frankly undersells his form profile. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. has two additional runners entered today, showing he's live and active at the meet, and jockey Tyrone Nelson knows what to do in short sprints at this level.

show3RhodesiaML 6/5

Rhodesia is the morning line favorite at 6/5 and rates third on our model at 68.63, which means she's a likely factor but potentially a public overlay. A 19% career win rate is respectable, and Rachaad Knights aboard keeps this one well-piloted. She's the kind of horse who may not dominate but stays close enough to collect a check — making the show spot a sensible landing for exotics builders.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The first three races on the card are fully unlocked, and they're anything but filler. TrackWiz analysis points to J L Copper as the marquee free pick — a 7/5 morning line choice in Race 3 who earned a field-best rating of 89.42. At that price, there's not much overlay, but the raw number says this is the most qualified horse in the free races, and strong favorites in short dirt sprints at Assiniboia have a way of getting the job done on days when the ground is this consistent.

Mechanic Susie opens the card at even money in Race 1, which means the market agrees with our top rating of 85.67 — though even-money chalk in an Allowance at 7½ furlongs deserves some pace scrutiny before you load up. Brannigan is the most interesting free-race play at 4/1 in Race 2, offering legitimate value in a 5½-furlong Claiming sprint. When a horse with an 83-plus TrackWiz rating goes off at that price in a short field, that's a spot worth circling.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

J L Copper sets up as a dominant top choice in this six-furlong claiming affair, posting a rating that dwarfs the field — the question is whether 7/5 offers enough juice or if the other contenders can mount a credible threat.

win3J L CopperML 7/5

J L Copper's TrackWiz rating of 89.42 is the class of this field by a wide margin, and the 7/5 morning line confirms what the public already suspects. A 23% career win rate gives this horse a legitimate hit-rate foundation, and trainer Jared Brown has him pointing here with Antonio Whitehall — one of the busier riders on this card — in the irons. At six furlongs on the dirt, J L Copper's average speed figure of 53 matches the competitive range of the top contenders, meaning he won't be giving away anything on the clock.

place1In Vronsky StyleML 3/1

In Vronsky Style at 3/1 makes a compelling place target with a rating of 79.82 that sits comfortably second in the field. Trainer Jason Homer sends out two horses today, and Renaldo Cumberbatch handles the riding duties from post one — a post that sets up nicely in a six-furlong sprint where early positioning is everything. The 7% career win rate is the one knock, but the overall rating suggests this horse has been competitive without always closing the deal.

show2Mischievous IntentML 5/1

Mischievous Intent rounds out our trifecta at 5/1 with a rating of 67.63 that slots neatly into third place in this field. Trainer Jerry Gourneau has multiple entries in today's card, and Dario Dalrymple gives Mischievous Intent a competent trip. The 11% career win rate is modest, but at 5/1 odds you're getting fair value for a horse who has the model support to be within striking range at the wire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

9:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile allowance splits neatly into a top tier and a lower tier, with the morning line co-favorites holding the two highest ratings — but a value play lurking at 6/1 could complicate the exacta.

win8Ready for AnythingML 6/5

Ready for Anything tops our model at 70.31 and draws the 6/5 morning line, making this horse the public's choice as well as ours. Trainer Keith Pedersen has a runner with a 14% career win rate — not flashy, but consistent — and jockey Kerron Khelawan gets the assignment going a route of ground. What stands out is the gap between Ready for Anything and the next tier: only Money Mitch comes within striking distance on the ratings, and the pace setup over a mile should suit a horse with this kind of overall profile.

place4Money MitchML 6/1

Money Mitch at 6/1 is the value angle in the place spot, carrying our second-highest rating of 66.63 for trainer M.L. Pierce. Christopher Roy Mamdeen rides, and at a mile on the dirt, this horse's average speed figure of 53 keeps him competitive in the right company. The 11% career win rate is modest, but the model sees enough underlying form to suggest a spot in the exacta is realistic.

show3SmokeintheairML 5/2

Smokeintheair brings an interesting profile to this race — the highest average speed figure in the field at 55 and a rating of 59.88 that makes her the third choice in our analysis. Trainer M.L. Pierce doubles up with both Smokeintheair and Money Mitch, which tells you the barn thinks it has live contenders. The 5/2 morning line puts her as the second betting choice, but our model sees a slight gap between her and the top two — making the show spot the right place to deploy her.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

10:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A fascinating top-of-the-card battle shapes up in this six-furlong allowance optional claimer, with the top-rated horse at 5/2 squaring off against a well-regarded 9/5 favorite — the pace duel between them could open the door for a closer.

win1My Wife Is RightML 5/2

My Wife Is Right leads our TrackWiz rankings for this race at 87.81, and it's not particularly close. A 20% career win rate is solid in allowance optional company, and the average speed figure of 55 matches the field's best. Trainer Jerry Gourneau is a name that shows up repeatedly on today's card, signaling a barn that's firing, and Dario Dalrymple gets the call in the irons. At 5/2, there's enough price to make this a strong win play rather than just a ticket to beat.

place6Messi the GreatML 9/5

Messi the Great is the morning line co-favorite at 9/5 and rates second on our model at 79.36 — a legitimate contender who could easily flip the result. Trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Kerron Khelawan are a familiar combination on this card, and a 20% career win rate shows this horse knows how to finish in front. In a race where the top two are closely matched on ratings, the place spot is a safe landing for Messi the Great regardless of which one hits the wire first.

show7FrostedbirdML 5/1

Frostedbird at 5/1 brings a TrackWiz rating of 68.54 and a 20% career win rate — consistent production that tends to show up in the exotics at value prices. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson sends him out with Dane Nelson up, and the average speed figure of 54 is right in the competitive range for this level. If the top two wage a war on the front end, Frostedbird has the profile to be picking up the pieces in the final furlong.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

10:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Ten horses going a mile in this claiming race creates a complex pace scenario, and our top-rated selection comes in as an underlay on the morning line — while a 27% career winner lurks at 3/1 as a genuine threat.

win8ShamayimML 7/2

Shamayim tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and draws a reasonable 7/2 morning line from trainer Monique Goulet. Rachaad Knights gets the mount, and while the 9% career win rate looks low, the raw rating is the class of this field by more than seven points. At a mile, pace dynamics matter, and with ten horses in this field there will be plenty of traffic for closers to navigate — Shamayim's model profile suggests this one has the ability to move into contention from mid-pack if Rachaad Knights can find a clean trip.

place7Dangerous GameML 3/1

Dangerous Game at 3/1 is the horse with the most compelling traditional credentials: a 27% career win rate that leads all ten starters, combined with a TrackWiz rating of 78.73 that ranks second in the field. Trainer Sherri Leanne Laing has multiple entries today, and Arthur Budhu rides with the confidence of a winning handler behind him. If there's an upset in the making, it starts with Dangerous Game.

show10FunkensteinML 5/2

Funkenstein at 5/2 is the morning line second choice and rates third on our model at 73.67 — a steady, reliable profile for a horse you want eating into your show tickets. Trainer Wendy Anderson is active across the card today, and Shavon Townsend handles the riding from the outside post. The 10% career win rate suggests this one doesn't always close the deal, but the numbers say he belongs at the business end of a wide-open trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 7

11:05 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Finding Ways dominates the TrackWiz model in this six-furlong allowance optional claimer, but at 2/1 on the morning line, the real intrigue is a 10/1 shot who rates third and owns a 44% career win rate.

win9Finding WaysML 2/1

Finding Ways is the standout selection with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest in this nine-horse field — and a 38% career win rate that is genuinely elite for this type of race. Trainer Robert Maybin sends this one out with Christopher Roy Mamdeen aboard, and the average speed figure of 54 ties for the top mark alongside several rivals. The 2/1 morning line is fair value for a horse this dominant on the model, and in an allowance optional claiming field where talent gaps exist, Finding Ways should be on every ticket.

place3Calming ForceML 10/1

Calming Force is the overlay story of the race. At 10/1 on the morning line, this horse owns a 44% career win rate — second only to Finding Ways in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 75.70 that comfortably slots into second place. Trainer Mike Taphorn and jockey Neville Stephenson combine on a horse whose average speed figure of 54 matches the top tier. If you're building exotics, Calming Force at double-digit odds is a must-use in the place and show legs.

show7WhatwomenwantML 6/1

Whatwomenwant at 6/1 sits third in our model at 69.80 and brings a 30% career win rate that ranks second in the field — a horse who has clearly learned how to win. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson has another runner in the race with Frostedbird, and Dane Nelson rides with the benefit of an average speed figure of 55, the best in the field. Whether this one fires a winning bid or settles for a share, the underlying numbers make Whatwomenwant a solid trifecta anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Today's Assiniboia card has a clear headliner in J L Copper and a legit value angle with Brannigan in the free races, while the premium back half of the card offers real multi-race sequence potential. TrackWiz analysis sees actionable spots in all seven races — subscribe to get the full breakdown before the first post goes up.

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