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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — August 19, 2026

August 19, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

We're heading to Assiniboia Downs on Wednesday, August 19, for a tight seven-race card that punches above its weight. Cloudy skies and a mild 71°F should keep the track in solid shape — no weather drama to account for, just straight-up handicapping.

The card is a nice mix of Claiming races, a Maiden Special Weight mile, and a Stakes sprint at 5½ furlongs that anchors the afternoon. Whether you're picking your spots or grinding the whole card, there's plenty to work with here.

TrackWiz analysis covers all seven races — the first three are free for every reader, and our full premium breakdown unlocks Races 4 through 7, including multi-race wager strategies and exotic ticket construction.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout headlines this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but there's enough depth in the middle of the field to make the exotics interesting.

win3Rugged RoosterML 7/5

Rugged Rooster is the horse to beat here, and it's not particularly close. A TrackWiz rating of 89.42 towers over the field, and a 27% career win rate is elite for this level — that means roughly one in four career starts results in a trip to the winner's circle. Paired with a top average speed figure of 53 and Antonio Whitehall in the irons, this is the kind of short-priced favorite you don't fight at 7/5. Respect the morning line and build your tickets around him.

place5Run Matteo RunML 5/2

Run Matteo Run draws the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 64.2 and posts a matching average speed figure of 53, putting her right in the mix with the top tier. At 5/2 on the morning line, trainer Tiffany Husbands sends out a horse who figures to be forwardly placed and capable of holding second if the favorite runs as expected.

show4CashflowML 5/1

Cashflow at 5/1 represents solid exotic value as a show horse. A rating of 56.4 slots him comfortably ahead of the bottom half of the field, and Carl Norman Anderson has him pointed right for this spot. At those odds, he's a worthwhile inclusion in exacta and trifecta tickets rounding out the top three.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight going a mile on the dirt — a wide-open debut showcase where top TrackWiz ratings are clustered at the top and the morning line has two horses within a half-point of each other.

win6Charlie's PrizeML 9/5

Charlie's Prize is our top pick in this maiden field, carrying the highest TrackWiz rating at 88.83 and heading in at 9/5 on the morning line. Trainer Charlene Miller hands the call to Antonio Whitehall, who has been a reliable pilot on this circuit. In maiden company over a route of ground, refined workout patterns and a strong model profile often separate contenders — and Charlie's Prize checks the most boxes here.

place1American WittML 7/5

American Witt is the morning line favorite at 7/5 with a rating of 78.86 and trainer Jerry Gourneau, who has shown a knack for placing first-time starters competitively. The average speed figure of 53 matches several horses in the field, but the overall profile suggests he'll be tough to leave off your tickets — a clean trip at a mile could see him threaten for the win.

show5Canadian LitesML 5/2

Canadian Lites at 5/2 rounds out a sensible top three. With a rating of 70.92, she's clearly a cut above the bottom half of this maiden field. Trainer Judy Hunter and jockey Rachaad Knights team up for what looks like a professional effort, making her a safe show-ticket anchor in what is otherwise an unpredictable maiden affair.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stakes company over 5½ furlongs, and a horse with a perfect career record walks in as the overwhelming favorite — the question is whether the field can put together a pace duel to soften him up.

win9Circle the BirdML 6/5

Circle the Bird is the standout in this stakes field and it's easy to see why — a 100% career win rate is as clean as it gets, and his 6/5 morning line reflects the market's confidence. Trainer Michael Nault has him in top form, and Kerron Khelawan gets the call. His TrackWiz rating of 59.67 leads the field, and an average speed figure of 53 out of the gate gives him a measurable edge on most of these. At short odds you're not getting rich, but this is a legitimate top choice.

place3C J's MayzeeML 4/1

C J's Mayzee is the most interesting place horse here at 4/1. Trainer Jared Brown sends out a horse with the second-highest rating in the field at 55.0 and a matching average speed of 52. She figures to be competitive and at a price that makes her worth using underneath in exacta and trifecta combinations.

show1Today's AgendaML 5/1

Today's Agenda at 5/1 closes out a logical top-three structure. A rating of 53.33 is respectable in stakes company, and trainer Michael Nault — who also saddles the favorite — has familiarity with this class of race. Mathew Bennett is aboard for a horse that figures to be involved in the early pace scenario over the short sprint distance.

The opening three races give us a strong foundation to build on. Rugged Rooster tops our model in Race 1 at a 7/5 morning line that looks fair for a horse sitting on an 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the best figure among the free picks. In Race 2, Charlie's Prize draws our attention in the Maiden Special Weight mile, carrying an 88.83 rating against a field that hasn't broken its maiden yet. First-time and early-speed angles tend to play well on this oval, so watch the pace setup closely.

Race 3 is the headliner of the free card — a Stakes sprint at 5½ furlongs on dirt. Circle the Bird is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, though the 59.67 rating signals this is a genuinely open race. Stakes fields at smaller tracks can compress quickly, so don't sleep on value underneath if the favorite's price compresses further at post time.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong claiming race features a genuine pace battle shaping up between multiple speed horses, setting the table for a closer — and the TrackWiz model says the closer is the right play.

win7Mr. SplashML 4/1

Mr. Splash tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and goes postward at a generous 4/1 morning line, making him the best value play on the win end of this ticket. A 22% career win rate is strong, and trainer Mike Taphorn has him primed for this spot with Rachaad Knights up. With early speed horses likely to battle up front, a horse with Mr. Splash's profile has the pace setup to roll late and steal this one.

place6J L CopperML 2/1

J L Copper is the morning line favorite at 2/1 for good reason — a 21% career win rate and a rating of 78.49 make him dangerous. Trainer Jared Brown and Antonio Whitehall is a sharp combination at this level. He's a threat to win outright, and if the pace gets honest he's almost certain to hit the board.

show4Mischievous IntentML 5/2

Mischievous Intent at 5/2 is a solid show anchor with a rating of 73.83, the third-highest in the field. Trainer Jerry Gourneau puts Dario Dalrymple on a horse that has won 11% of career starts and figures to be competitive throughout this 6-furlong trip. His profile makes him a reliable piece in exacta and trifecta construction.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Speed figures dominate this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, with the top two horses posting noticeably higher averages than the rest — it may come down to which one can sustain their early kick through the stretch.

win5Time MachineML 2/1

Time Machine is the standout of the card in Race 5, with an average speed figure of 57 — the highest in the field by a clear margin — and a TrackWiz rating of 84.42. A 24% career win rate is excellent, and Renaldo Cumberbatch gets the mount for trainer Perry Cavanaugh. At 2/1, the odds don't scream value, but the underlying numbers do — this horse is legitimately better than the competition on a pure speed basis.

place2My Wife Is RightML 7/1

My Wife Is Right is the sneaky value horse in this race at 7/1 on the morning line. Don't let that price fool you — her TrackWiz rating of 81.25 and average speed figure of 55 put her squarely in the mix with the top two. Trainer Jerry Gourneau and Dario Dalrymple combine on a horse with a 20% career win rate who could easily outrun that morning line and steal a piece at a juicy price.

show6Call the CavalryML 7/2

Call the Cavalry at 7/2 rounds out the ticket with a solid 72.1 rating and an 18% career win rate. Trainer Craig Robert Smith sends her out with Rachaad Knights, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps her honest in a field where pace will be the decisive factor. She's a reliable show component and a worthwhile exotic play.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 10-horse claiming field going 7½ furlongs on the dirt — the longer route tips the scales toward horses with stamina, and a pair of hidden-priced contenders have TrackWiz ratings that quietly dwarf the morning line favorite.

win9Gallant OakML 6/1

Gallant Oak is our top selection at 6/1, carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 81.94. Trainer Carman Mustard sends him out with Neville Stephenson, and a 11% career win rate in what is clearly a deep book of starts is respectable. The 7½-furlong distance is a route test that should favor horses with more tactical ability, and Gallant Oak's model profile suggests he fits this spot well. At 6/1, this is a live overlay.

place8Cherokee SunriseML 7/1

Cherokee Sunrise at 7/1 is a fascinating play — a rating of 81.25 is virtually identical to our win pick, yet he's being offered at morning line odds that suggest the market hasn't fully caught on. Trainer Perry Cavanaugh and Renaldo Cumberbatch are a sharp combination, and a 16% career win rate over what's likely a varied form cycle gives him legitimate upside. The value angle here is real.

show1Charming CharlieML 5/2

Charming Charlie is the morning line favorite at 5/2 for good reason — a rating of 79.74 and 11% career win rate under trainer Jerry Gourneau make him a dependable chalk. Sven Balroop is in the irons, and while we have two horses ranked above him on our model, Charming Charlie's class and connections make him a safe show-ticket inclusion in this chaotic 10-horse field.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Allowance Optional Claiming company over 6 furlongs, and this one sets up as a two-horse war at the top — the rest of the field will need things to go perfectly to gate-crash the top two.

win5Finding WaysML 5/2

Finding Ways is our top pick with the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 87.81 and the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 37% — that's an elite mark that tells you this horse knows how to close out a race. An average speed figure of 54 gives her a measurable edge over most of the field, and Christopher Roy Mamdeen has the mount for trainer Robert Maybin. At 5/2, she's a legitimate play to win outright.

place4Prime SuspectML 6/5

Prime Suspect heads in as the 6/5 morning line favorite with a 83.48 rating and Steve Keplin Jr. in the trainer's box — a sharp combination at allowance level. A 15% career win rate and average speed figure of 53 give him the tools to compete, and Sven Balroop is a capable pilot. He's hard to leave off the ticket, and if Finding Ways hits any traffic, Prime Suspect is more than capable of stealing the win.

show1Preachers SecretML 6/1

Preachers Secret is an excellent show component at 6/1 with a 78.55 rating and the standout win percentage of 28% in a field full of fighters. Trainer Jason Homer and Renaldo Cumberbatch team up on a horse who clearly has the ability to compete at this level — the odds just reflect that two horses above him are having better days right now. In trifectas and exacta wheels, he's a must-use at that price.

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Bottom line: Rugged Rooster, Charlie's Prize, and Circle the Bird are the free plays to start your day, with the Stakes sprint in Race 3 offering the most intrigue at short odds. For the back half of the card — including our Gallant Oak value angle and the full exotic ticket breakdowns — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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