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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — August 24, 2026

August 24, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

It's a beautiful Monday at Assiniboia Downs — 76 degrees, partly cloudy, and a 7-race card that gives you plenty to work with from first post to nightcap. Conditions look ideal for fast dirt, which means speed figures will hold weight and pace scenarios are going to matter.

Today's card opens with a bang: a Stakes race at one mile to kick things off, and the afternoon builds through a mix of claiming and allowance company before wrapping with a 7-furlong allowance to close. There's something for every type of bettor here — straightforward win plays, value hunting opportunities, and some genuinely tricky sequences for the exotic players.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all 7 races. The first three are on us — no subscription needed. Races 4 through 7 are where the card gets especially interesting, and that's where our premium breakdown earns its keep.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A three-horse stakes affair with a towering favorite at the top, but trainer Michael Nault has two bullets in the chamber and could dictate the outcome either way.

win2Rise AgainML 2/5

Rise Again is the horse to beat in every sense of the phrase — a 90 TrackWiz rating that laps the field, a 50% career win rate that screams elite, and a 2/5 morning line that says the market agrees. Trainer Michael Nault has this one loaded for the one-mile dirt trip, and with Antonio Whitehall in the irons, there's no reason to look elsewhere for the win. At 2/5 you're not getting rich, but in a three-horse field this is about exotic construction and staying on the right side of the result.

place1Clippity CopML 7/5

Clippity Cop is the logical place fill at 7/5 morning line — a 68.12 rating and a 33% career win percentage make this horse legitimately dangerous in a thin field. The fact that she also runs for trainer Michael Nault is worth noting: when a barn doubles up in a short field, the connections know what they have, and Clippity Cop is clearly here to hit the board.

show3Our Last PennyML 50/1

Our Last Penny is a 50/1 shot with a 20 rating and no career wins, so let's be clear-eyed — this is a survival-of-the-field show ticket more than a confidence play. In a three-horse field, though, you only need two horses to fall short of expectations for the longshot to sneak into the exotics, which makes Our Last Penny worth a minimal inclusion in tri coverage.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sgt. Filkow is a massive standout on paper in this six-furlong claimer, but with a 1/2 morning line in a six-horse field, the real game is finding value underneath.

win1Sgt. FilkowML 1/2

Sgt. Filkow carries a perfect 90 TrackWiz rating — the ceiling score in our model — and draws the rail in a six-furlong dirt sprint where early position matters. Trainer Tiffany Husbands sends this one out with Renaldo Cumberbatch up, and the 53 average speed figure is tops in the field. The 1/2 morning line is hard to stomach for win bettors, but the underlying numbers say the chalk is legitimate.

place3Not TrueML 12/1

Not True is an interesting underneath play at 12/1 morning line despite holding a 52.28 rating — third-best in the field. Antonio Whitehall picks up the mount for trainer Marion Johnston, and the 5% career win rate doesn't tell the whole story when the figure potential is this close to the top horses. If Sgt. Filkow is the one to single on top, Not True looks like a value place ticket worth including.

show6Amma Jaw DropperML 5/1

Amma Jaw Dropper brings a 33% career win rate to the table — the joint-best in this field — and trainer Ryan Desjarlais doubles up in this race with two horses, which often signals confidence from the barn. The 50.03 rating and 5/1 morning line make this an accessible show option, and Rachaad Knights is a capable handler who can find position in a short sprint.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse here — Ave's in Command lurks at 3/1 with the field's second-best TrackWiz score and a career win percentage that puts the chalk to shame.

win4Ave's in CommandML 3/1

Ave's in Command posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 37% career win percentage — the highest win rate in the field — yet sits at a generous 3/1 on the morning line while the public leans toward the favorite. Christopher Roy Mamdeen gets the call for trainer Robert Maybin, and the 52 average speed figure is consistent with the class level. This is the kind of horse our model loves: undervalued by the crowd, overperforming by the numbers.

place3DelvecchioML 5/1

Delvecchio has the best average speed figure in the race at 53, which matters in a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint where early fractions are everything. The 70.73 rating and 20% career win percentage for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. suggest a horse that fires regularly without always getting to the winner's circle — exactly the profile you want in a place spot. Javaniel R. Patterson aboard is a plus in a tight pace scenario.

show2Bossy HolidayML 4/5

Bossy Holiday is the morning line favorite at 4/5, which means the crowd respects this horse even though our model has her third in the ratings at 54.35. The 13% career win rate is modest but the public price reflects connections' confidence, and trainer Monique Goulet has Rachaad Knights — one of the busier riders on the card — to guide her through the short sprint. She belongs in the show spot as a hedge against public opinion.

Our three free picks today lead off with Rise Again in the Stakes opener — a heavy morning-line favorite at 2/5 who earned a 90 TrackWiz rating, as strong a number as you'll see on this circuit. In Race 2, Sgt. Filkow comes in even shorter at 1/2 in a 6-furlong claiming sprint, also rated 90. When two horses on the same card both rate that high, it tells you something about how well-defined the top of those fields are.

Race 3 is where the free card gets genuinely interesting — Ave's in Command opens at 3/1 in a 5½-furlong dirt sprint, a much more hittable price with a solid 87-point rating. On a fast-playing dirt track like Assiniboia figures to be today, front-runners and pace-pressers tend to hold an edge at this distance. Keep that pace bias in mind as you work through the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

2:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming mile at six furlongs shapes up with a clear top two on ratings, but the pace could get honest with multiple horses carrying similar speed figures.

win1TaillightsML 6/5

Taillights tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.71 and goes as the 6/5 morning line choice for trainer Steve Keplin Jr. and jockey Damario Bynoe. A 25% career win rate is solid for the allowance optional claiming ranks, and the 53 average speed figure is right in the mix. This is a horse the model trusts to deliver — the ratings gap over most of the field is significant enough to feel like a real edge rather than a coin flip.

place6Diamond RimML 3/1

Diamond Rim rates second in the field at 71.06 with a 24% career win percentage and a 54 average speed figure — one tick better than the top pick in raw speed. Trainer Steven Gaskin doubles up in this race, which shows barn depth, and Antonio Whitehall is live on this one at 3/1. If the pace gets contested up front, Diamond Rim's slightly superior speed number could be the difference in a photo.

show4Kauai DanML 8/1

Kauai Dan is the value angle in this field — a 66.23 rating, a 32% career win rate, and the race's highest average speed figure at 55 make this a legitimate contender who opens at 8/1. Kerron Khelawan picks up a good horse for trainer Jared Brown, and if the two top choices get tangled up on the front end, Kauai Dan's raw speed could carry him to a surprise finish. Third seems like the floor for a horse with these kinds of numbers at this price.

Race 5

2:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open five-and-a-half furlong claimer with four horses bunched in the 72-86 rating range — this one could come down to pace scenario and jockey positioning.

win4Rockets Red FlairML 4/1

Rockets Red Flair leads the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 with a 23% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure that ties three other horses in the field. Kerron Khelawan gets the call for trainer Victoria Morse, and the 4/1 morning line offers genuine value relative to the top rating. In a race this competitive, having the best number — even by a small margin — is exactly what you want from your win selection.

place3Red Road RunnerML 5/1

Red Road Runner sits at a 72.92 rating with an 18% career win rate, and at 5/1 on the morning line, this is a horse that could easily outrun that number. Trainer Michael Nault is active on the card today and sends Antonio Whitehall — the busiest jockey of the day — to handle the 5.5-furlong sprint. The 53 average speed figure is consistent, and in a pace scenario where multiple horses are pressing early, a closer like Red Road Runner can find plenty of dirt to run through.

show5Hay Scooby DooML 5/2

Hay Scooby Doo has an 18% career win rate, a 54 average speed figure, and a 72.68 TrackWiz rating that puts this horse firmly in the hunt at 5/2. Neville Stephenson rides for trainer Jerry Gourneau, and while the morning line makes this the second betting choice, our model has four horses bunched within 13 points — meaning the show spot here is genuinely contested. Including Hay Scooby Doo in multi-race exotics is a reasonable hedge.

Race 6

3:20 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming sprints are famously unpredictable, but Areunotentertained stands out dramatically on ratings and could make this look easier than the field suggests.

win7AreunotentertainedML 7/5

Areunotentertained carries an 89.42 TrackWiz rating — by far the best in this maiden claiming sprint — and opens at 7/5 for trainer Jared Brown with Kerron Khelawan in the irons. While everyone in this field is still looking for their first win (career win rate is zero across the board), the ratings gap here is too wide to ignore. Brown has another horse in the race in Special Gift, signaling the barn is active, but this is clearly the stable's primary weapon.

place8OnmyradarML 6/1

Onmyradar sits at 51.67 on the TrackWiz scale — second-best in the field — and Tyrone Nelson picks up the mount for trainer M.L. Pierce at 6/1. In maiden races where the favorite can stumble for any number of reasons, having the second-rated horse at reasonable odds is exactly the kind of place bet that pays dividends over time. This horse's 51 average speed figure is competitive, and the 6/1 price makes it an attractive underneath option.

show5I ConduitML 9/5

I Conduit has the best average speed figure in this field at 55 — a meaningful edge in a six-furlong dirt sprint — and opens at 9/5 morning line for trainer Perry Cavanaugh with Javaniel R. Patterson aboard. The 49.82 rating trails only the top two picks, and the speed figure alone suggests this horse could grab a piece when the pace gets honest. Including I Conduit in the show spot keeps you covered if the top pick hits any trouble.

Race 7

3:45 AM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

Seven furlongs of allowance dirt racing with a legitimate overlay at the top — our top-rated pick opens at 6/1 while a lower-rated horse holds a shorter morning line, setting up a potential value win.

win5AcquireML 6/1

Acquire is the play here: an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win percentage — the highest in this allowance field — yet the morning line has this horse at 6/1, which is a significant mismatch our model flags immediately. Shavon Townsend rides for trainer Jason Homer, who also saddles He's My Uncle in this race, showing confidence in the barn's overall entry. At seven furlongs, a 53 average speed figure and a high win rate set up perfectly for a horse with this profile.

place1Money MitchML 3/1

Money Mitch checks in at 77.47 on the TrackWiz scale — second-best in the field — and goes at 3/1 for trainer M.L. Pierce with Antonio Whitehall up. The 10% career win rate is modest but the rating says this horse is performing well when it does fire, and the 52 average speed figure is right in the range of the top contenders. In a race where our win pick is an overlay, Money Mitch at 3/1 is a solid underneath play.

show8He's My UncleML 4/1

He's My Uncle rounds out the TrackWiz top three with a 69.09 rating and an 8% career win rate, but that win percentage slightly undersells a horse who competes regularly at this level. Tyrone Nelson gets the mount for trainer Jason Homer — who pairs He's My Uncle with the win pick Acquire — and the 53 average speed figure is consistent with what's needed to hit the board in this allowance sprint. At 4/1, this is a comfortable show anchor for multi-leg exotic tickets.

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Today's Assiniboia card is headlined by a pair of near-locks in Rise Again and Sgt. Filkow, but the real money is made in the premium races where prices and pace scenarios give sharp bettors an edge. If you're playing the full card, don't leave Races 5 and 7 off your radar — that's where the value lives today. Unlock the complete breakdown at TrackWiz Premium and get every angle before first post.

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